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Daily Forex Forecast | forexcoachingsolutions.com

  • Post #1
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  • First Post: Edited Jul 15, 2016 1:42am Mar 2, 2015 8:28am | Edited Jul 15, 2016 1:42am
About me: I am a currency trader and Im also a trading coach. Ive been trading the forex markets for 4 years.

How do I trade?
I use a simple trading methodology that combines fundamental analisys with technical analisys. I do not like sitting at a computer all day watching charts. I use daily charts to establish the trend, support and resistance and hourly charts to establish the price entry and exit.
  • Post #2
  • Quote
  • Edited at 10:07am Mar 2, 2015 9:24am | Edited at 10:07am
AUDUSD Forecast

Trading Bias: SHORT

Technicals:
On the daily chart, the price is below the 25x5 DMA and the 3x3 DMA. Both long term trend and short term trend are bearish.
Look to sell the pair at bounces near the 23.6% (0.77917), 38.2% (0.78147) or 50% (0.78330) Fibonacci retracements between 26.02.2015 high and todays low. Between 50% (0.78330) and 61.8% (0.78517) retracements is a major resistance.

Fundamentals:
Peoples Bank of China rates cut raised concerns over the outlook for Chinese growth based on the timing of their cut. RBA cut cash rates to record low last month. Governor Glenn Stevens said that the Australian Dollar remains above most estimates of its fundamental value, particularly given the significant declines in key commodity prices. He added A lower exchange rate is likely to be needed to achieve balanced growth in the economy. The Aussie didnt respond as expected and since than it traded sideways. The RBA has a rate decison tomorrow. We expect a rate cut from 2.25% to 2.00%. We expect AUD weakness. However, if the RBA doesnt cut the rates, the AUD will rally.
The US Dollar Index traded at the highest level since September 2003. Non-Farm Employment Change & Average Hourly Earnings will be released on Friday. These datas are very important because a sustained run of NFPs over 200k will determine the Fed to hike the rates.
Feds Fischer (voter, soft dove) said there is not an emphasis among members for a June rate hike as opposed to raising rates later in September. Furthermore Fischer said that the FOMC does not plan to hike rates at two consecutive meetings. (BBG/RTRS)
Fed Watcher Jon Hilsenrath says the Feds latest forecast show 9 out of 17 policy makers see the Feds fund rate at 1.13% or higher by year-end. The median estimates point to 2.5% for the end-2016 and 3.63% end-2017. Conversely, Fed funds futures markets expect the Feds fund rate at 0.50% on avg. in Dec15, 1.35% in Dec16 and 1.84% Dec17. (WSJ)

You can read this article on our website: http://forexcoachingsolutions.com/au...st-02-03-2015/
Attached Images (click to enlarge)
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USDCHF Forecast

Trading Bias: LONG

Technicals:
On the daily chart, the price is above the 255 DMA and the 33 DMA. Both long term trend and short term trend are bullish.
I am looking to buy the pair at bounces near the 23.6% (0.99065), 38.2% (0.98739) or 50% (0.98461) Fibonacci retracements between todays high and the 06.03.2015 low. Around 38.2% (0.98739) retracement is a major resistance.

Fundamentals:
EUR sold dramatically last week. This is a concern to the SNB because Europe is Switzerlands primary trading partner. We know that Swiss Finance Minister Widmer-Schlumpf said that 1.1000 is a critical limit for the Swiss economy, so we expect further SNB intervention on the pair to push the price up to this level. They will buy large amounts of EUR with CHF so CHF will weaken against all major currencies. I dont want to buy the EUR/CHF pair because the ECB is in the process of quantitative easing.
Instead of buying EUR/CHF, I am looking to buy USD/CHF because USD is fundamentally strong and surrounded by positive sentiment. Friday Nonfarm Payrolls was released stronger than expected (295K). We know that FEDs eyes are on the labor market data, which has been very good lately. This will determine the FED to hike the rates which will support the USD.
Fed watcher Hilsenrath says Februarys nonfarm payrolls release was strong enough to keep Fed on track for a rate hike in 2015. (BBG)
Feds Fisher (non-voter, hawk) said future path of interest rates is upward. (BBG)
Feds Lacker (voter, hawk) said June is in pole position to see the Feds first rate hike. (BBG)
Feds Mester reiterates she is comfortable with first Fed rate hike in H1 2015. (BBG)
JP Morgan cuts EUR/USD forecast to 1.0800 from 1.1000 end-Q1 and to 1.0700 from 1.1400 end-Q2, to 1.0600 from 1.1200 end-Q3 and to 1.0500 from 1.1000 end-Q4.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs forecast EUR/USD to fall to 1.0245, citing the sustained downward pressure that follows the move below the 1.1000 handle.
Overnight, the USD gained against all of its major peers sending the USD-index to a fresh 12yr high after gaining as much as 0.59%, in an extension of Fridays post-NFP gains. Consequently, EUR/USD hurtled below 1.0800 to touch its lowest level since Sept03 while USD/JPY rose above 122.00 for the first time since Jul07, after breaching long-term resistance at 121.85 (Dec 7th high).
Attached Images (click to enlarge)
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AUDUSD Forecast

Trading Bias: SHORT

Technicals:
On the daily chart, the price is below the 25×5 DMA and the 3×3 DMA. Both long term trend and short term trend are bearish.
I am looking to sell the pair at bounces near the 61.8% (0.77347) Fibonacci retracement between the 06.03.2015 high and today’s low. Around 61.8% (0.77347) retracement is a major resistance.

Fundamentals:
The Chinese trade balance showed imports fall the most since the global financial crisis. RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent said that the fall in the AUD was starting to help the economy.
The USD index posted a fresh 12yr high after briefly breaking above the key 100.00 level. USD is fundamentally strong. FEDs eyes are on the labor market data, which has been very good lately. This will determine the FED to hike the rates which will support the USD. U.S. Retail Sails were released today, worst than expected. The dollar eased against all major currencies. I see this as an opportunity to buy the USD.

You can read the article on our website: http://forexcoachingsolutions.com/au...st-12-03-2015/
Attached Images (click to enlarge)
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USDCAD Forecast

Trading Bias: LONG

Technicals:
On the daily chart, the price is above the 25×5 DMA and the 3×3 DMA. Both long term trend and short term trend are bullish.
I am looking to buy the pair at bounces near the 38.2% (1.26450), 50% (1.26003) or 61.8% (1.25556) Fibonacci retracements between today’s high and the 05.03.2015 low. Between 38.2% (1.26450) and 50% (1.26003) retracements is a major resistance.

Fundamentals:
BoC have recently cut rates and they are prepared to do so again if the economic datas are not improving.
The USD index posted a fresh 12yr high after briefly breaking above the key 100.00 level. USD is fundamentally strong. FEDs eyes are on the labor market data, which has been very good lately. This will determine the FED to hike the rates which will support the USD. U.S. Retail Sails were released today, worst than expected. The dollar eased against all major currencies. I see this as an opportunity to buy the USD.

You can read the article on our website: http://forexcoachingsolutions.com/us...st-12-03-2015/
Attached Images (click to enlarge)
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EURUSD Forecast

Trading Bias: SHORT

Technicals:
On the daily chart, the price is below the 25×5 DMA and the 3×3 DMA. Both long term trend and short term trend are bearish.
I am looking to sell the pair at bounces near the 38.2% (1.06500), 50% (1.06997) or 61.8% (1.07478) Fibonacci retracements between the 09.03.2015 high and today’s low. Between 50% (1.06997) and 61.8% (1.07478) retracements we have the 23.6% (1.07191) daily retracement.

Fundamentals:
The European Central Bank began on Monday its massive bond purchase programme known as quantitative easing, to ward off deflation and stimulate growth in the single currency area. ECB bought €9.8 billion ($US10.33 billion) of bonds with an average maturity of nine years in the first three days of its massive stimulus program. This has sent EUR/USD below 1.0500 for the first time since Jan 2003.
The USD index posted a fresh 12yr high after briefly breaking above the key 100.00 level. USD is fundamentally strong. FEDs eyes are on the labor market data, which has been very good lately. This will determine the FED to hike the rates which will support the USD. U.S. Retail Sails were released today, worst than expected. The dollar eased against all major currencies. I see this as an opportunity to buy the USD.

You can read the article on our website: http://forexcoachingsolutions.com/eu...st-12-03-2015/
Attached Images (click to enlarge)
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USDJPY Forecast

Trading Bias: LONG

Technicals:
On the daily chart, the price is above the 25×5 DMA and the 3×3 DMA. Both long term trend and short term trend are bullish.
I am looking to buy the pair at bounces near the 38.2% (121.198), 50% (120.947) or 61.8% (120.708) Fibonacci retracements between the 10.03.2015 high and the 06.03.2015 low. Around 61.8% (120.708) retracement is a major resistance.

Fundamentals:
In Japan, the lack of inflation remains a serious problem so the BOJ is expected to remain steady with its accommodating monetary stance. BOJ may use as a tool the quantitative easing as a monetary stimulus, which could lead on a weaker yen.
The USD index posted a fresh 12yr high after briefly breaking above the key 100.00 level. USD is fundamentally strong. FEDs eyes are on the labor market data, which has been very good lately. This will determine the FED to hike the rates which will support the USD. U.S. Retail Sails were released today, worst than expected. The dollar eased against all major currencies. I see this as an opportunity to buy the USD.

You can read the article on our website: http://forexcoachingsolutions.com/us...st-12-03-2015/
Attached Images (click to enlarge)
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Forex Weekly Outlook 16-20 March 2015

It has been a highly volatile week for the EUR/USD and the parity is now an achievable short-term target. On Monday 09.03.2015, ECB officially started quantitative easing, buying in the first three days of the program 9.8 billion sovereign bonds with an average of nine year maturity. There are rumors that the ECB will further cut the deposit rate because the QE does not allow the purchase of bonds yielding more negative than the deposit rate (-0.20%).

FEDs focus is on two indicators: employment and inflation, but is more focused on employment. The US jobless claims fell 36.000, reaching 289.000. However, the retails sails disappointed, dropping 0,6% in February. This caused a short term correction in the major USD pairs.

The single and most important event in this Forex Weekly Outloook is the next week’s FOMC statement, on Wednesday, 18.00 GMT and the FOMC press conference at 18.30 GMT. Since Yellen testified in Capitol Hill and she explained that she is preparing the markets for a removal of guidance in the upcoming meeting in March, the market expects that the FED will remove the word “patient” from the statement, signaling a rate hike in June. However, the latest USD strenght has complicated their decision. Given the extremely oversold EUR/USD position, a short term correction is possible. If the word “patient” remains in the statement, the dollar will drop.
- EUR/USD breaks below the 1.0500 handle to print fresh 12-year lows;
- Credit Agricole reduces their year end forecast for EUR/USD to 1.00 from 1.05;
- Analysts at Societe Generale lower their end of year EUR/USD estimate to 1.03 from 1.10 and forecast pair to reach parity by March 2016;
USDJPY Forecast

Originally updated: 16.03.2015, 08.10 GMT

Trading Bias: LONG

Technicals:
On the daily chart, the price is above the 25×5 DMA and the 3×3 DMA. Both long term trend and short term trend are bullish.
I am looking to buy the pair at bounces near the 50% (120.954) or 61.8% (120.704) Fibonacci retracements between the 10.03.2015 high and the 06.03.2015 low. Around 61.8% (120.708) retracement is a major resistance.

Fundamentals:
The most important event this week is the FOMC statement and and the FOMC press conference, which are announced on Wednesday. The market expects that the FED will remove the word “patient” from the statement, signaling a rate hike in June. However, if the word “patient” remains in the statement, the dollar will drop.
BOJ uses core inflation to measure economy’s health. Their goal is 2%. Due to the sales-tax increase and the drop in oil price, core inflation slowed to 0.2 percent in January. “A negative reading is possible around April,” Mari Iwashita, chief market economist at SMBC Friend Securities Co., said, referring to the consumer-price index. “Inflation could rise to 1.5 percent to 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2016, but it will take a bit longer to get to 2 percent.”
The central bank uses as a tool the quantitative easing to reach their inflation target. They buy government bonds at an annual pace of about 80 trillion yen ($668 billion) under an unprecedented program that Kuroda expanded in October last year. Kuroda reiterated that the BOJ is likely to reach its target in or around the year starting in April, while the timing depends on oil prices that have dropped more than 50% in the past 12 months. The market expects that the BOJ will expand monetary stimulus by the end of October.
BoJ is not offering to purchase JGB’s until after Wednesday’s 20-year auction.
BofAML forecasts USD/JPY may test the 125.00 level ahead of the Fed rate rise.
Attached Images (click to enlarge)
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Forex Weekly Outlook 23-27 March 2015

The US dollar began a retracement on Wednesday after suffering a blow from the FED. As expected, the word “patience” was removed from the forward guidance which brings us closer to the posibility of the first rake hike in the coming months. FED Chair Yellen characterized USD strength as a sign of US economic strength, and expects consumption strength to counterbalance net export weakness. However FED also shifted the focus from the job market to growth and inflation and downgraded them sending the dollar down and making the rate hike data dependent.

The US consumer price index declined 0.3% in November and December and 0.7% in January. However the core inflation increased 0.4% in January and over 2% on a yearly base. Economists believe the low inflation is temporary held down by the sharp fall in oil prices. On Thuesday the US inflation data will be released. Analysts expect consumer prices to gain 0.2%, while core prices to increase by 0.1%.

FOMC Member Evans and FOMC Member Lockhart spoke on Friday. Evans said that a delay to rate hike does not affect the central bank’s ability to counter inflation. Lockhart reiterated that an increase in interest rates in the US could be appropriate in the summer or later this year.

Barclays changed their forecasts for the first Fed rate hike to September 2015 from June 2015.

SocGen sees parity in EUR/USD in Q1 2016, stating that a break below 1.04 or 1.04 could lead to a fall as low as 0.96, however the pair have capacity to rebound on economic surprises.

You can read this article on our website: http://forexcoachingsolutions.com/fo...27-march-2015/
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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AUDUSD Forecast

Originally updated: 26.03.2015, 15.30 GMT

Trading Bias: SHORT

Technicals:
The price is in rage between the 0.79292 level and the 0.75583 level..
I am looking to sell the pair at bounces near the 50% (0.79292) Fibonacci retracements between the 11.03.2015 low and the 15.01.2015 high. Around 0.788000 area is a major resistance.
The USD index found support at @97.00 which is the 61.8%.

Fundamentals:
US unemployment claims data was released today better than expected.
Feds Lockhart states that June, July and September are all possible timings for the first rate hike. Analysts at Barclays expect EUR/USD to hit 1.0 by Q3 against previous estimation of Q4.
Feds Lockhart says markets determine the level at which the USD trades and the Fed does not intend to intervene despite continued strength in the greenback.
In the 7th of April we will have the RBA Rate Statement. Market expects a rate cut. This will cause a plunge in the AUD price.

If you want to read the article on our website, visit the link below:
http://forexcoachingsolutions.com/au...st-26-03-2015/
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Forex Weekly Outlook 30 March – 3 April 2015


The US Dollar Index found support around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at the price of 96.00. Will the price stay above this level? Is this the end of the USD correction?

Last week our focus was on three datas:
1. The US inflation figures the consumer price index rose 0.2%, the first gain in four months and the core consumer price index, which exclude food and energy prices, also increased 0.2%, exceeding the market expectation;
2. The US labour data unemployment claims were released on Thursday, showing an improvement in the US labor market, with a decline in the number of jobless claims, reaching 282,000;
3. The growth final GDP for the fourth quarter of 2014 remained unchanged at 2.2%, below the 2.4% forecast (the final read usually has less impact).

The FOMC member Dennis Lockhart, said that rate hikes are coming. He added that the strong US dollar is a worry for the Fed and could hurt growth, but only in a slight manner. He also put July as an option for a move on the rates.

The US datas were good. This, combined with the weakness in the other currencies is a good reason for the dollar surge.

The most important events next week are US Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment rate. The US job creation strenghten in February rising 295.000. The forecast for this Friday is a gain of 251.000 for the US Non-Farm Payrolls and the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 5.5%. If the datas are released better than expected, it will increase the market expectations for a rate hike in June and the USD will surge.

If you want to read the article on our website, visit the link:
http://forexcoachingsolutions.com/fo...-3-april-2015/
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Forex Weekly Outlook 6-10 April 2015

After the weakwer than expected gains in the March Non-Farm Payrolls of only 126K, below 245K expectations with downwards revision of 69K the US Dollar Index dropped against all major currencies as weaker data raises doubts about a rate increase. Some analysts say that the bad weather the US has been having lately could be a cause of the bad NFP figure. The Avergae Hourly Earnings data was released higher at 0.3% than expected 0.2% which limited the USD drop.

This week we have two major events:

1. On Tuesday the 7th of April we have the RBA Rate Statement. The institutional markets are princing 80% chance of RBA cutting their rates. They point to a 2% rate by May, but only 40% expect it to happen this week. The cut in rates will result in a boost for the stock market and fall in the Australian dollar. Lower commodity prices have caused a lot of trouble on the Australian economy. The iron ore slumped below $US50 per tonne, from its record high of $US 191.70 reached in February 2011. A stronger USD has double effect, it lifts the commodity prices and makes the AUD more competitive and boosts the Australian exports. If the RBA will cut their rates, don’t expect a big down move as the cut is already priced in and the US dollar is weak due to Friday NFP.

2. On Thursday Grece has to make a debt payment . Analysts speculate that the Greek leftist government will fail to make payments to its bailout creditors in order to continue social spending. This could make Greece the first nation in history to default on an International Monetary Fund loan. This could could make the EUR sink.

If you want to read the article on our website, visit this link:
http://forexcoachingsolutions.com/fo...10-april-2015/
Attached Images (click to enlarge)
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AUD gained against all of its peers after the RBA decided to keep its policy rate as unchanged despite the market pricing in a cut, prompting an aggressive relief rally. Furthermore, participants dismissed the dovish commentary from RBA’s policy statement as the central bank hinted at further easing and AUD weakening in the period ahead, with the RBA citing business lending growth, an unchanged view of the economy and importance of keeping options open as reasons for keeping rates on hold.

“Further easing of policy may be appropriate over the period ahead, in order to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation consistent with the target,” Stevens said in the statement. “The board will continue to assess the case for such action at forthcoming meetings.”

The RBA said in its statement that an even lower exchange rate “is likely needed to achieve balanced growth.”

“The key development of lower iron ore, commodity prices will ultimately push them to deliver some more easing, most likely in May,” said Su-Lin Ong, head of Australian economic and fixed-income strategy at Royal Bank of Canada in Sydney.

“They see advantages in receiving more data” before cutting rates, Prashant Newnaha, a rates strategist at TD Securities Inc. in Singapore, said before Tuesday’s rate decision. “We will see a bounce in the Aussie dollar to 77 to 77.50 U.S. cents, but beyond that we don’t really think that there’s much scope for it to rally further because the markets are going to expect the RBA to cut rates in May.”

If you want to read the article on our website, visit this link:
http://forexcoachingsolutions.com/fo...ws-07-04-2015/
  • Post #16
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  • Last Post: Apr 13, 2015 6:03am Apr 13, 2015 6:03am
AUDUSD Forecast

Originally updated: 13.04.2015, 10.30 GMT

Trading Bias: SHORT

Technicals:
On the daily chart, the price is below the 25×5 DMA and the 3×3 DMA. Both long term trend and short term trend are bearish.
I am looking to sell the pair at bounces near the 23.6% (0.75805), 38.2% (0.76109) or 50% (0.76348) Fibonacci retracements between the next project low which could be at the support area near the 0.75440 level and the high from 09.04.2015.

Fundamentals:
The World Bank has lowered their 2015 China growth forecast from 7.2% to 7.1% and 2016 from 7.1% to 7.0%. China is Australia’s major trading partner. The major chinese imports from Australia include iron ore, coal and gold.
China customs spokesman Huang Sai says that chinese orders are falling and internatioanl demand is weak. Chinese Trade Balance data was released worst than expected. China imported in March 80.51 mln tonnes of iron ore. This spurred speculation over further Chinese easing. Market expectations of a RBA rate cut in May have increased.
Fed’s Kocherlakota (non-voter, dove) reiterated his stance that the Fed should hold off from raising rates until the second half of 2016. (BBG)
Fed’s Williams (voter, dove) says the Fed must take into account early and gradual rate hikes against acting later and more aggressively. (RTRS)

If you want to read the article on our website, visit the following link:
http://forexcoachingsolutions.com/au...-13-04-2015-2/
Attached Images (click to enlarge)
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