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GBPNZD trading calls

  • #881
  • Mar 11, 2015 3:30pm Mar 11, 2015 3:30pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} Holy shit!! Haha..yeah, I think it topped!!
Huge!! Dollar is really strong overall though, so would be no surprise to see this move back in other direction due to USD gaining back against NZD.. It's nuts how many pips GBP/NZD moves based on NZD/USD ,,, due to the currency being up at 2.0+.... it's really another world of trading when the pips come and go that quick for these amounts
  • #882
  • Mar 11, 2015 3:35pm Mar 11, 2015 3:35pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Huge!! Dollar is really strong overall though, so would be no surprise to see this move back in other direction due to USD gaining back against NZD..
Now don't go talking yourself out of this trade! GBPUSD has more potential than NZDUSD for a big drop , IMO.
  • #883
  • Mar 11, 2015 3:56pm Mar 11, 2015 3:56pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} Now don't go talking yourself out of this trade! GBPUSD has more potential than NZDUSD for a big drop , IMO.
haha yea thanks... this H4 candle is so beautiful. ..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #884
  • Mar 11, 2015 4:15pm Mar 11, 2015 4:15pm
Survived the first impact. Now Wheeler is next.

Now it is more important than ever to stick to the plan. All my instincts (read fear and greed) just want to claim the profit. My plan is to follow the system and the plan. I don`t want to exit to soon.

I still can be wrong and should have taken the profit now. This is what makes trading difficult. When I first entered into the position, as always I took a risk. The risk still exists. I just have to live with it. Again, I choose to follow the plan.

I try not to get to carried away, neither positively og negatively. At the end of the week I look at the balance, then I can either smile or the opposite dependant of how the week has been. For me this is important, to not be too emotional.

This is the current waypoint (picture below). I could have taken profits at the 1:2 level. As I said in an earlier post. I/we will get the answer after tomorrow afternoon. No matter what happens then, I will not get to carried away. That is trading. More opportunities around the corners.

And never forget the mantra; let the winners run...

http://i.imgur.com/GO484oM.jpg
Do not let the cost of being wrong, exceed the prize of beeing right
  • #885
  • Mar 11, 2015 4:29pm Mar 11, 2015 4:29pm
Quoting Decima
Survived the first impact. Now Wheeler is next. Now it is more important than ever to stick to the plan. All my instincts (read fear and greed) just want to claim the profit. My plan is to follow the system and the plan. I don`t want to exit to soon. I still can be wrong and should have taken the profit now. This is what makes trading difficult. When I first entered into the position, as always I took a risk. The risk still exists. I just have to live with it. Again, I choose to follow the plan. I try not to get to carried away, neither positively...
nice trade, I closed mine before the news, just my personal preference. I miss alot of pips by doing this but also don't lose too many either. I applaud you for sticking to your plan. I'd be somewhat leery of wheelers speech, just my two cents which are worth 1/2 a cent. GL!
  • #886
  • Mar 11, 2015 4:29pm Mar 11, 2015 4:29pm
Quoting Decima
Survived the first impact. Now Wheeler is next. Now it is more important than ever to stick to the plan. All my instincts (read fear and greed) just want to claim the profit. My plan is to follow the system and the plan. I don`t want to exit to soon. I still can be wrong and should have taken the profit now. This is what makes trading difficult. When I first entered into the position, as always I took a risk. The risk still exists. I just have to live with it. Again, I choose to follow the plan. I try not to get to carried away, neither positively...
So true.....
  • #887
  • Mar 11, 2015 4:30pm Mar 11, 2015 4:30pm
Quoting Decima
Survived the first impact. Now Wheeler is next. ... {image}
The market ain't going to let any longs that just got blitzed get out right away. They are now stuck. There is a lot of damage it can do by going down. The damage has been done on the upside.

This is really what separates the winners from the losers, IMO. You can't let a loser run along until it hopefully turns, only to get out quickly if it does finally turn. This is letting your fears and greed control you.

You were right at a crucial point. Now you need to reap the rewards, not toss them away. Can the market go up from here and turn this short of your into a loser? Yes. But is that likely, and is there still a huge potential gain ahead if you stay short? These are the questions you should continually ask yourself.
  • #888
  • Mar 11, 2015 4:38pm Mar 11, 2015 4:38pm
Quoting wyley187
{quote} nice trade, I closed mine before the news, just my personal preference. I miss alot of pips by doing this but also don't lose too many either. I applaud you for sticking to your plan. I'd be somewhat leery of wheelers speech, just my two cents which are worth 1/2 a cent. GL!
R:R 1:3 I think is acchievable. I have support a few pips below it. If this support breaks, I believe that 1:5 can be reached. It could very well turn against me at the 1:3 level. I will consider securing profits at the 1:1 level when price is testing the support at 1:3. Only if the 1:1 level is above the EMA21 line at that moment.

http://i.imgur.com/yKs1XBi.jpg
Do not let the cost of being wrong, exceed the prize of beeing right
  • #889
  • Mar 11, 2015 4:44pm Mar 11, 2015 4:44pm
Quoting Decima
{quote} R:R 1:3 I think is acchievable. I have support a few pips below it. If this support breaks, I believe that 1:5 can be reached. It could very well turn against me at the 1:3 level. I will consider securing profits at the 1:1 level when price is testing the support at 1:3. Only if the 1:1 level is above the EMA21 line at that moment. {image}
Now take it a step further and consider what would happen if you added size to your position right now, lowered your stop to 2.0764 and let it run until you see some strong buyers appear (it won't all disappear at once even when they do appear).

You see what I'm getting at?
  • #890
  • Mar 11, 2015 4:45pm Mar 11, 2015 4:45pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} Now you need to reap the rewards, not toss them away. Can the market go up from here and turn this short of your into a loser? Yes. But is that likely, and is there still a huge potential gain ahead if you stay short? These are the questions you should continually ask yourself.
Yes, every traders dilemma. Before going to bed, SL will be set to BE. I can`t lose on this by now. But there sure is a lot of uncertainity ahead. I geared up on this position. Normally I use 4:1. The advantage of trading the GBPNZD is that it is traded 24/5. Tonight that is a little disadvantage for me. I normally rely on my system, but there isn`t enough coffe in the world to take away my nights sleep.

So I can`t be monitoring the pos. I am also short GBPAUD. I am considering staying up untill the employment numbers and Wheelers speech has finished.
Do not let the cost of being wrong, exceed the prize of beeing right
  • #891
  • Mar 11, 2015 4:51pm Mar 11, 2015 4:51pm
Quoting Decima
{quote} Yes, every traders dilemma. Before going to bed, SL will be set to BE. I can`t lose on this by now. But there sure is a lot of uncertainity ahead. I geared up on this position. Normally I use 4:1. The advantage of trading the GBPNZD is that it is traded 24/5. Tonight that is a little disadvantage for me. I normally rely on my system, but there isn`t enough coffe in the world to take away my nights sleep. So I can`t be monitoring the pos. I am also short GBPAUD. I am considering staying up untill the employment numbers and Wheelers speech...
OK, one more thing before I get off my soap box.

Get your sleep! A tired trader is an unfocused trader. Not to mention its bad for your health. You did your homework. You have yourself protected. When its time to go to bed, let it go and try to sleep peacefully. Its how you'll make it through years and years of this crazy endeavor of ours.
  • #892
  • Mar 11, 2015 4:51pm Mar 11, 2015 4:51pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} Now take it a step further and consider what would happen if you added size to your position right now, lowered your stop to 2.0764 and let it run until you see some strong buyers appear (it won't all disappear at once even when they do appear). You see what I'm getting at?
I read you on that man. It is a way to handle the risk:reward. I must consider what I have the stomach to do. It is all about that. I never do positions that unbalance me mentally. As long as I can have a slightly "i don`t care" attitude towards the position, I am ok. Then the right parts of my brain are making the decisions, in a calm way....

But I understand the thoughts behind your suggestion.
Do not let the cost of being wrong, exceed the prize of beeing right
  • #893
  • Mar 11, 2015 4:55pm Mar 11, 2015 4:55pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} OK, one more thing before I get off my soap box. Get your sleep! A tired trader is an unfocused trader. Not to mention its bad for your health. You did your homework. You have yourself protected. When its time to go to bed, let it go and try to sleep peacefully. Its how you'll make it through years and years of this crazy endeavor of ours.
Thanks man.

I might take that advice onboard
Do not let the cost of being wrong, exceed the prize of beeing right
  • #894
  • Mar 11, 2015 4:56pm Mar 11, 2015 4:56pm
Quoting Decima
{quote} I read you on that man. It is a way to handle the risk:reward. I must consider what I have the stomach to do. It is all about that. I never do positions that unbalance me mentally. As long as I can have a slightly "i don`t care" attitude towards the position, I am ok. Then the right parts of my brain are making the decisions, in a calm way.... But I understand the thoughts behind your suggestion.
No, I agree with you on that! If your position is making you nervous, your probably overleveraged. Still, you can trade in the way I described without ever increasing the initial risk.

Gotta go now. Talk with you guys later.
  • #895
  • Mar 11, 2015 6:31pm Mar 11, 2015 6:31pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} This is really what separates the winners from the losers, IMO. You can't let a loser run along until it hopefully turns, only to get out quickly if it does finally turn. This is letting your fears and greed control you. You were right at a crucial point. Now you need to reap the rewards, not toss them away.
You are so right... sometimes the best thing a trader can do is not look at his trade. Set the break even SL or the SL and just go away, let it play out. The subconscious mind can kick in really easily w/ greed & fear and cause one to take profit early looking at smaller time frames trying to catch every move etc. It usually burns a trader.
May add to my short at 2.0539.. if we get there.
  • #896
  • Mar 11, 2015 6:56pm Mar 11, 2015 6:56pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} You are so right... sometimes the best thing a trader can do is not look at his trade. Set the break even SL or the SL and just go away, let it play out. The subconscious mind can kick in really easily w/ greed & fear and cause one to take profit early looking at smaller time frames trying to catch every move etc. It usually burns a trader. May add to my short at 2.0539.. if we get there.
Yes and no, I'd say. Yes, setting stop and target and walking away can yield better results, especially for beginners. But it is not the best way, IMO. When you've done this long enough, you figure out at some point that you don't need the trade to play out perfectly to win.

I think it is better to know that you might only be partially correct with your forecast, and it'd be best if you watched for signs that you are wrong. I don't mean when the market starts to retrace. I mean when you start to see POWER! Or, you may see the moves lower get weaker and weaker, while buyers are getting stronger and stronger----then it is time to get out BEFORE your target is hit. Pay attention to the signs.

This also goes for stops. Sometimes you gotta give it room all the way to your stop price. Other times you may notice power against you that you did not expect. "Maybe its time to get out before I get stopped", you think to yourself? It probably is!

Just don't target less than you risk and you'll be better off. Be realistic, but if you really feel strong about a big move you need to exploit your intuition and go for it! All the while protecting yourself by moving stops closer as the trade progresses. All the while adding appropriate size to the position and strictly adhering to your predetermined maximum risk %.

You either lose small, win small, win big, or smash a grand slam out of the fucking ballpark!!
  • #897
  • Mar 11, 2015 7:37pm Mar 11, 2015 7:37pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} Yes and no, I'd say. Yes, setting stop and target and walking away can yield better results, especially for beginners. But it is not the best way, IMO. When you've done this long enough, you figure out at some point that you don't need the trade to play out perfectly to win. I think it is better to know that you might only be partially correct with your forecast, and it'd be best if you watched for signs that you are wrong. I don't mean when the market starts to retrace. I mean when you start to see POWER! Or, you may see the moves lower...
I like your style Zappa, how long you been trading?
  • #898
  • Mar 11, 2015 7:40pm Mar 11, 2015 7:40pm
Watching this 2.0439 area. Make or break area for me on the monthly. I like connecting two candle bottoms or tops with a trendline, then take the current month's time line and where they both intersect at is an area of interest for me. And the fact that price opened below it, just like it did March of last year, where it's below the other two trendlines connecting before that. I've been getting some nice pips connecting the trendlines and watching where it interests with time.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpnzd11mar.png Size: 48 KB
Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
  • #899
  • Mar 11, 2015 8:52pm Mar 11, 2015 8:52pm
Here's what I'm watching on the hourly. 2.0376 area holding up as support, for now. Taking the time line of the swing high, then connecting the two swing low candles and where they intersect at.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpnzdhourly11mar.png Size: 54 KB
Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
  • #900
  • Mar 11, 2015 11:38pm Mar 11, 2015 11:38pm
Time to get up. This is what the position look like right now. I miscalculated the support with about 70 pips. Former resistance had turned into the support.

Using R:R thinking, price has 80 pips up to the R:R 1:2 level. 40 pips down to the R:R 1:3 level. It is almost a R:R 2:1 relationship, when considering that I won`t give away the 1:2 level. It sounds like it is not worth the risk. More pips to lose than to gain. I will monitor the positon during the morning and might cash in on this. TP order set to R:R 1:3.

At the 1h TF, there are clear signs that price wont`t break the 2.0405 level.

Is this greed/fear playing with me, or sound thinking that leads to maximizing current profits....

http://i.imgur.com/Shzv6je.jpg
Do not let the cost of being wrong, exceed the prize of beeing right
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