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GBPNZD trading calls

  • #861
  • Mar 11, 2015 1:56pm Mar 11, 2015 1:56pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Yep, agreed, bears have taken over H4 momentum as well, we're likely going to see 2.06 within 24h.
I'm telling you, if this reverses from here we will see 1.9600. You will be kicking yourself if you get out before 2.0000.

With that said, we always must remain on the lookout for signs that we're wrong, but 1.9600 looks extremely likely if we don't go to 1.0850 first.
  • #862
  • Mar 11, 2015 1:58pm Mar 11, 2015 1:58pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} I'm telling you, if this reverses from here we will see 1.9600. You will be kicking yourself if you get out before 2.0000. With that said, we always must remain on the lookout for signs that we're wrong, but 1.9600 looks extremely likely if we don't go to 1.0850 first.
Why 1.96? and why aren't you short yet with such huge resistance right near 2.085 and such good r/r,


there are more signs with volume that today's action was completely bearish as well and we are heading lower...
  • #863
  • Mar 11, 2015 2:11pm Mar 11, 2015 2:11pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Why 1.96? and why aren't you short yet with such huge resistance right near 2.085 and such good r/r
I've thought about it, but I'm sitting pretty in my GBPUSD trade and there is still a lot of potential gain for me in that pair too.

Now as far as 1.9600, its pretty simple really. Simple, but logical and a very powerful tool to use. Look for where liquidity (stops) will be. When a market moves in one direction too easily and without faking everyone else out first, you can expect it to be tested before too long. Please see chart.

The traders who bought after that simple pullback got off WAY too easy and will need to be relieved of their positions if they are still in them when we get back down there. Its really what this is all about.....finding and moving to the liquidity (stops). That's why when it seems the market is always going for your stops, its because IT IS!!
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  • #864
  • Mar 11, 2015 2:15pm Mar 11, 2015 2:15pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} I've thought about it, but I'm sitting pretty in my GBPUSD trade and there is still a lot of potential gain for me in that pair too. Now as far as 1.9600, its pretty simple really. Simple, but logical and a very powerful tool to use. Look for where liquidity (stops) will be. When a market moves in one direction too easily and without faking everyone else out first, you can expect it to be tested before too long. Please see chart. The traders who bought after that simple pullback got off WAY too easy and will need to be relieved of their...
I see, thank you.

You don't think USD weakness will come for a little while? Feel like euro has to snap back rally soon to 1.08+ ... good shot GU is going to go back up in that case. With GN short even if GU goes up I can still profit ( as you know) , just need NZD to go up more.
  • #865
  • Mar 11, 2015 2:19pm Mar 11, 2015 2:19pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} I see, thank you. You don't think USD weakness will come for a little while? Feel like euro has to snap back rally soon to 1.08+ ... good shot GU is going to go back up in that case. With GN short even if GU goes up I can still profit ( as you know) , just need NZD to go up more.
Until I see strong buyers I will not predict when EUR will take a breather. But keep in mind that EURGBP could move UPWARDS in a strong move. EURUSD might chop around while GBPUSD drops HARD.
  • #866
  • Mar 11, 2015 2:21pm Mar 11, 2015 2:21pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} Until I see strong buyers I will not predict when EUR will take a breather. But keep in mind that EURGBP could move UPWARDS in a strong move. EURUSD might chop around while GBPUSD drops HARD.
Yep, definitely possible. A lot of these guys think GBP is immune to the situation at hand, they will be proven wrong when GBP tanks hard toward 1.4. I will sell any bounces in both pairs strongly, but with patience, and good management.
You're telling me I'm going to be kicking myself for not holding to 1.96 yet you're not shorting and we're at 2.07+ hahaha.... I guess your GU position is really big for your account and you can't really put on anything else? I don't know, I just hope this trade goes my way, I doubt I'll be able to hold on till 1.96, definitely not all my positions, hopefully one of my 2.08+ entries.
  • #867
  • Mar 11, 2015 2:26pm Mar 11, 2015 2:26pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Yep, definitely possible. A lot of these guys think GBP is immune to the situation at hand, they will be proven wrong when GBP tanks hard toward 1.4. I will sell any bounces in both pairs strongly, but with patience, and good management.
Sounds good. GBPUSD has not even broke 1.4810 yet. EURUSD is in no man's land as far as I'm concerned, unless your already short from a higher price.
  • #868
  • Mar 11, 2015 2:27pm Mar 11, 2015 2:27pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} With that said, we always must remain on the lookout for signs that we're wrong
True, this could venture further 200 pips upwards. Before a turn occurs.

This pair is going to be volatile the next 18-19 hours. First off are the interest rate decison and monetary policy statement very soon. Later tonight Wheeler is holding a speech. Tomorrow the trade balance numbers from UK arrives. Later in the day Carney is holding a speech.

There is all the possible drivers/movers for the pair. When Carney finishes his speech and things settles down, we will know if we were wrong or right.

Nobody knows what the future holds, as traders all we can do is to follow the signals we use for our trading.

When I receive a good signal long or short and things looks alright, I shoot and try not to think to much about it. If I was wrong, no big deal. I wait for the next opportunity and try again.

But good luck to everyone who is in the trade or are going to be.

I have three trades i monitor or have entered into a position: short GBPNZD, short GBPAUD and long AUDCAD.
Do not let the cost of being wrong, exceed the prize of beeing right
  • #869
  • Mar 11, 2015 2:30pm Mar 11, 2015 2:30pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} Sounds good. GBPUSD has not even broke 1.4810 yet. EURUSD is in no man's land as far as I'm concerned, unless your already short from a higher price.
I was hyper bearish on EU at 1.37-1.4 levels, and GU high 1.6's - 1.7+...was posting on here non stop how it was clearly a bull shit rigged move and it was obviously being held up there. My problem was I was going kamikaze shorting $200-$300 a point with a small roll, So I kept screwing myself over and then in turn missed out on having unreal good entries and making a fortune. Lesson learned. Will make the best of any upcoming trends I see coming with great entries. GU was really sick, the 1.7052 pivotal point was just screaming at me. First it had a little fake out move above, but once it came back down it never saw that level again.
I'm actually long EU now looking for 1.08, but I'm a fool for that. I just can't help it at this point... we'll see.
  • #870
  • Mar 11, 2015 2:33pm Mar 11, 2015 2:33pm
Quoting Decima
{quote} True, this could venture further 200 pips upwards. Before a turn occurs. This pair is going to be volatile the next 18-19 hours. First off are the interest rate decison and monetary policy statement very soon. Later tonight Wheeler is holding a speech. Tomorrow the trade balance numbers from UK arrives. Later in the day Carney is holding a speech. There is all the possible drivers/movers for the pair. When Carney finishes his speech and things settles down, we will know if we were wrong or right. Nobody knows what the future holds, as traders...
GL to you brother.... I made a USD CAD short today near the high, I was looking for it to retest the highs and today it happened, now i see USD xxx way over done in short term. And yes it could go up 200 pips first...... I really don't want to see 2.085 get hit, 2.0835 was clear resistance and we hit it on the dot and stopped there which is really bearish, or was at least short term, 2.0850 getting hit would be dangerous.
  • #871
  • Mar 11, 2015 2:33pm Mar 11, 2015 2:33pm
Quoting Decima
{quote} True, this could venture further 200 pips upwards. Before a turn occurs. This pair is going to be volatile the next 18-19 hours. .
Anything above 1.0850 and your flirting with disaster being short, IMO.
  • #872
  • Mar 11, 2015 2:40pm Mar 11, 2015 2:40pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} I was hyper bearish on EU at 1.37-1.4 levels, and GU high 1.6's - 1.7+...was posting on here non stop how it was clearly a bull shit rigged move and it was obviously being held up there. My problem was I was going kamikaze shorting $200-$300 a point with a small roll, So I kept screwing myself over and then in turn missed out on having unreal good entries and making a fortune. Lesson learned. Will make the best of any upcoming trends I see coming with great entries. GU was really sick, the 1.7052 pivotal point was just screaming at me. First...
Yeah, when you're over-leveraged it is hard to put a safe stop in place, because the risk is so great. You end up setting stop way too close and losing money and your ticket for the big ride. Its happened to me many times before I finally realized it is not the way to trade. Nothing worse than LOSING money in a market you were right about.
  • #873
  • Mar 11, 2015 2:49pm Mar 11, 2015 2:49pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} Anything above 1.0850 and your flirting with disaster being short, IMO.
True, Resistance at 2.0850. If the candle closes above this level, it is better to be out. Forex trading would be very easy hadn`t it been for spikes/pins. One of the worst feelings is seeing your SL hit by a spike, when price afterwards goes in the direction you settled for.

One of the most challenging techniques with forex trading is applying the correct SL level. I will get all my answers very soon....
Do not let the cost of being wrong, exceed the prize of beeing right
  • #874
  • Mar 11, 2015 3:02pm Mar 11, 2015 3:02pm
Wow,,, just lightened up position at 2.06... what a move....
  • #875
  • Mar 11, 2015 3:03pm Mar 11, 2015 3:03pm
Hope it continues to get smashed though.... but I had to lighten up my position was pretty damn big relative to account size, will let the rest run.
  • #876
  • Mar 11, 2015 3:07pm Mar 11, 2015 3:07pm
Gidday NZ Hobbitts

Man NZ pairs going mental

Yee Ha did ok as had a few lemons

following me around:nerd:
  • #877
  • Mar 11, 2015 3:09pm Mar 11, 2015 3:09pm
Quoting Ck87
Wow,,, just lightened up position at 2.06... what a move....
I am leaving the computer, will check again at candle close. The price will dance erratically now. When the dust settles and if I am still in the trade, the most difficult phase starts. It is the exit of the postion. I have target set at 2.0109. At R:R 1:5.

It is mentally hard to stay in the trade this far. But that is the plan. I will manually trail the stops to secure profits as we go along. Still the price needs enough room to manouvere.
Do not let the cost of being wrong, exceed the prize of beeing right
  • #878
  • Mar 11, 2015 3:15pm Mar 11, 2015 3:15pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} Sounds good. GBPUSD has not even broke 1.4810 yet. EURUSD is in no man's land as far as I'm concerned, unless your already short from a higher price.
We just may have topped out on GN my man..... i got my 2.08 shorts running.....
  • #879
  • Mar 11, 2015 3:27pm Mar 11, 2015 3:27pm
Quoting Decima
{quote} I am leaving the computer, will check again at candle close. The price will dance erratically now. When the dust settles and if I am still in the trade, the most difficult phase starts. It is the exit of the postion. I have target set at 2.0109. At R:R 1:5. It is mentally hard to stay in the trade this far. But that is the plan. I will manually trail the stops to secure profits as we go along. Still the price needs enough room to manouvere.
Hmmm yeah the hardest part is the exit for sure... this looks like it can move big big big in coming days.. I lightened up my position because it was very big and I had some earlier entries, all weaker entries were closed in profit and I'm letting the 2.08s run.
  • #880
  • Mar 11, 2015 3:28pm Mar 11, 2015 3:28pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} We just may have topped out on GN my man..... i got my 2.08 shorts running.....
Holy shit!! Haha..yeah, I think it topped!!
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