EURUSD drop/manipulation - Anybody else sick...

Sorry if newbie question but what do we mean by manipulated?
By whom, why, and how?

I'm not even saying it's a good idea to go long or to go short. I'm not even saying that I hate it or that I like it. But I'll never stop pointing out how the market is manipulated and that that is what is happening

manipulate: control or influence (a person or situation) cleverly, unfairly, or unscrupulously.

and actually yes I do feel it's not a good idea to short to be honest because of how oversold it is. It has to be considered that it will pop up hard off of something at some point. It's like you're catching the end of a run.

Justin.
That monthly chart looks like that due to CB and economic divergence.
You may get dealers straightening book out now and then but it's CB's that create these moves. Macroflow is institutional money at work and you ride those flows.
Never complain about it because that my friend will make you rich beyond your wildest dreams.
Divergence/convergence and trading the spread is where huge capital gains can be had.

You should be sending a thank you card to Mario Draghi for the gift that just keeps on giving, Euro QE.
Regards.

Have you considered Justin that EUR current rate maybe still too expensive looking forward?
You are viewing things from a 'look-back' perspective not 'look-forward' perspective(based on what is driving price and where it could eventually end up).

Most find it difficult to have a 'look-forward' perspective because they don't understand properly the mechanics behind currency movements, the price drivers.
Regards

I do look forward. I look forward to seeing that this move has to end up coming back up hard it's too much at once over such a big course of time.

I like the market. I don't like the manipulation involved with the people that run it. These are specific price points each day every week that they choose to move the market to on purpose. Whether it's done to take out stops before a big move the other way or whether it's a simple price breakout one way or whether it's a fib retracement. The moves are done on purpose to specific places.

I think there different levels of manipulation.

The one you refer to, is illegal. It's been in practice for a long time, but several people have been fired and arrested.
In London few years ago, a group of traders working for different institution were using a skype chat to move some of the markets.

Lot's of these people were caught.

What they were doing, didn't create trends altogether. The same way HFT do not create trends. Manipulation done by high liquidity traders working for their bonuses using other people money, do not send the euro 3000pips down. That's the Central Bank.

The manipulation is usually done in quiet time of low volumes, and it's about a spike, a stop hunt, or HFT.

The monetary policy and strategies of Central Banks, are a different story.
They can act using interest rate, creating chain reaction and butterfly effect, and of course, printing money and moving the market.

This is not always bad. As Traders we should be like snipers in search of opportunities.

That said, if Mario Draghi comes out changing the monetary policy like he did in May 2014, and he plans to devalue the Euro to parity (without saying it)... last thing he will dream of, is to create mayhem SNB style with the Euro cap. So the euro did not flash crash, it moved to a desired level, and as in this case, really fast.

Lot's of variables created the move. FED rumors of rate hike confirmed by data supporting the move, made the Dollar fly high against all its counterpart.
On the other side, slashing interest rate in a surprise move, and announcing the print of a few TRILLIONS by the ECB... you know the rest.

This was a rare case of a very very strong currency, against a very very weak currency, with the total support of the weak currency central bank for the drop.
ECB never seemed concern of the Euro drop, and that itself was a signal.

Even from the "big guys", market is traded in different ways. Some of them are shorting Euro to hedge weak and cheap European assets.
Some of them are trading intraday, some other are positioning, some are using derivatives.

A good thing to wonder is: how to take advantage of those moves.

Are you sure it is Oversold? what about if the ECB wants it a 0.8 and the FED does not stop the $ appreciation?

nothing is certain in this business... but one thing I learned is not to assume that anything is over or under valued. In times and movements like this... all the oscillators that indicates oversold o overbought are relatively useless.
Even a lot of cardinal rule become useless.. like buy low sell high.. it's all relative, because go tell what is low and high in a fast moving market.
How to trade it is a different matter, as we all have different styles. Counter trend trading or bottom picking are the only thing I would stay away from at anytime, specially when a Central Bank steps in with a change of policy. Those move don't last for minutes... but they often create trends. If the trends then is a choppy, vertical o harmonic.. is a different matter. Markets changes and we've got to adapt, whatever the underlying reasons is.

[quote=justin7;8127698]There are only a few certain individuals in the world that influence and tell the market where to go. It's done on purpose it's manipulated.[/quote

Your view of the markets shows at what stage in your trading career you are. You have such a long way to go buddy......

Losers never take the blame. They will find excuses for their inabilities.

The good news is that if you keep going ( trading) your view will eventually change and hopefully to your benefit.

At this point in time you are your own worst enemy.
YOU ARE MANIPULATING YOUR OWN THOUGHTS AND OUTLOOK ON THE MARKETS.

Good luck

NO. No one manipulates it. No one can possibly be that large. Maybe certain banks do for policy reasons. But those are always just telegraphed by the trend!

Where you ARE manipulated- on every transaction you pay commission. If you are not careful, notice, or treat this as a business it is easy to overlook how the small commissions add up. But for example, when you have a 20k month, you pay the broker 5k. The broker did not know anything or know the future better than you or anyone else.

THERE lies the "conspiracy." I've worked out the math, systems, and am confident I can make decent returns using computers. I'm willing to pay these brokers. But even when you negotiate good terms, commission and spread ends up being a *^*%LOAD of money.


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Off topic a bit, but here is a great idea- Pick something that tells you what the "Trend" is. IE a MA or some random thing. When it is below the MA, only take the short signals, above the opposite. To make it better, you could even make your MA "lag": so basically take the 200 past close points that occur every hour. Then for an hour, lag that last point. Then just look at the risk around that: if it crosses over and fails, how much do you lose.?How often does it happen? Then, you can start to work the system trading short by hand. Once you get that a bit better, you can probably computerize.

I guess the point is, pick your "phase" shift indicator that suits you well, then stick with it. And you don't necessarily even need to trade the crossover, you just need to use that to turn to "long only" or "short only." Then you can often randomly enter in the dominant direction with decent risk control and still do well.

Good luck on your journey further into this stuff for sure.

Just because Draghi can move the market doesn't mean he's manipulating it. Accept the market for what it is. It is not an auction that can be manipulated at the expense of some players. If Draghi needs the euro to go lower then he's got the power to do it. It's no different than Amazon selling some book at 75% off and everyone else crying about it. If you are a trader it doesn't make any difference to you whether the market is manipulated or not. The Swiss debacle was a different kettle of fish. That was open manipulation and many people knew better to stay away. It's beyond me why someone could be complaining about Draghi. He's just handed you 3,000 pips at no risk and you're whining about the lack of retracements? Join the party and enjoy it for what it's worth because it'll end at some point and you'll then be whining that there is no market manipulation. I'm personally sending thank you cards to ECB and the Bank of Japan because there's been nothing easier to trade than these two instruments in the past two years.

I wouldn't deny manipulation, as I wouldn't deny randomness and many other factors that I believe contribute to the markets....

You can't deny the existence of something recognized publicly:

http://www.bloombergview.com/article...ou-can-t-teach
http://www.ft.com/topics/themes/Forex_trading_probes
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101482959#
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forex_scandal

This is pure manipulation by major banks and institution, made by employees chasing a bonus.
It doesn't create trends, but it is maipulation... and the noise it create, might stop you out on lower Tf etc etc... annoying and illegal.

The fact that there is a currency war is quite obvious, it kind of makes sense, and that involves the Central Banks we all like to thank you for pointing long term direction to us

That itself is a manipulation, because if you inject so much liquidity with the intention to control the price... how else can we call it?

HFT is also a sort of manipulation, even if it might move the market only a couple of pips.

But surely isn't that just the nature of an auction market. If Bob who sells apples on his market stall, all of a sudden comes across a huge bumper crop, he then puts them all on his stall to sell before they rot, the price will inadvertently be driven down to get rid of them quick, and those other market traders next to him who also sell apples will find that the price they can sell for has dropped too. Bob has manipulated the market.

Dude, we are talking about a 1500 pip drop in the price of the EURUSD. It is not possible to manipulate that kind of move because there is no one single entity can.

Even the 1 trillion of easing by the ECB is not capable of that kind of move. This move is the result of capital flow from all the big players moving their money out of the Euro into mostly dollar denominated assets.

The manipulation that you cited is about rigging the benchmark overnight rate, nobody sitting in a bank can move the market 1500 pips lower... NOBODY.

All the guys complaining about manipulation are probably fading on the way down. If there truly was manipulation, why don't you just join in.

3 factors that drive prices 1) Greed 2)Fear 3)Anticipation , understand these and you will realise there is no actual manipulation but only these 3 factors that are driving prices down to such insane levels.

Not only are the markets manipulated, pretty much everything you see and hear in the mainstream media is, though I don't expect anyone to believe it because we're conditioned from an early age to ridicule and question the sanity of anyone who seriously questions authority/the media and all other global movers & shakers.

The Rothschild's own pretty much all of the worlds gold supply and can manipulate prices at will. It's common knowledge that oil prices are artificially regulated
and people who think that the whole Forex market can't be manipulated don't appreciate the absolute amount of power the 'elites' enjoy.

If you think that world governments don't collude to screw the people over then you probably deserve to be screwed, at least that's how they see it. . .

You can consider it natural... legally, you get arrested, as those guys did in London.

Dude, I never said that that kind of move is manipulated to the pip. I am just saying that you can not deny manipulation in today's market.

I actually specified that most of the manipulation, like the London scandal, or the HFT, happens on a small price scale. They can move pips.
I agreee with you that nobody can move 3000pips... no 1500.

But once you shake it, then it's a chain reaction. A lot of the shorts are Euro hedge from investors who are covering european assets.
Factor in the strong $... and the injection etc etc.

And by the way, I was in

I'll try to give a practical example of what was going on in London.

Bob, the trader of X bank, knows about a huge, massive client order at a determined price.

At this point, aggregated with other traders working for other banks and funds, via simple skype chat, they exchange those information.
Buy the asset heavily before the order gets executed, then sell it when the order comes in for a quick, huge, illegal profit.

This move was called "The Fix", technically called "Front Running" and the skype group had different names.. among which "The Mafia". They had nothing to do with the real mafia though.
Private chatroom are now banned in many of those banks.

So.. to conclude, the market is manipulated regularly. Can they move 3000pips? I don't think anybody can... can they affect the value of different instruments and upset market participant, for sure.

Manipulation is a wrong word, the right word is: trend.

Fx market is well known to be one of the best trending market, it has ever been, and will ever be.

T R E N D

So.. How would you call the euro cap made by SNB? isn't that pure manipulation?

Do you think that if ECB didn't like the euro a this level.. you would actually find it there now? do you think they are surprised as most of the traders and economist?

What about BOJ a few years ago...

Call it intervetion.. adjustment... to me it's "legal" manipulation.

Do I like it? trading wise.. I love it, it makes my life easy, and I do wish they keep playing their game as they are. So that we can surf 1000's pips waves.

Ethically speaking.. I wish the all monetary system would be wiped out of this planet if you ask me.