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GBPNZD trading calls

  • #821
  • Mar 10, 2015 2:07pm Mar 10, 2015 2:07pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Yeah I hear you. I don't have a problem trading multiple commodities/currencies at one time. The key for me is just keeping the trades small and mostly sticking with strong trends. My oil trade is more of a long term play, although I've made some intraday scalps as well. I'm targeting the lows there. With GBP/NZD it's basically about which currency goes down less than the other at this point, although EU can certainly bottom short term somewhere around here and USD xxx goes down for a bit. This ECB printing might move the mkt huge to downside...
Alright, man, good talk. I think your GBPNZD trade will be great, just remember to punish it for the anguish its putting you through right now. Don't get out too early, because this has major potential! GBP fall starting to pick up steam as we speak.
  • #822
  • Mar 10, 2015 2:09pm Mar 10, 2015 2:09pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} Alright, man, good talk. I think your GBPNZD trade will be great, just remember to punish it for the anguish its putting you through right now. Don't get out too early, because this has major potential! GBP fall starting to pick up steam as we speak.
Yep, good point, appreciate that buddy. Wish you well
  • #823
  • Mar 10, 2015 2:49pm Mar 10, 2015 2:49pm
I shorted this today, just based off of the [email protected] zone with TDI and stoch in overbought. If it breaks I'll scale in one more position around 2.10. which has held since nov 2011, just my 2 cents which are worth a half cent.
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  • #824
  • Mar 10, 2015 3:13pm Mar 10, 2015 3:13pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Yeah I hear you. I don't have a problem trading multiple commodities/currencies at one time. The key for me is just keeping the trades small and mostly sticking with strong trends. My oil trade is more of a long term play, although I've made some intraday scalps as well. I'm targeting the lows there. With GBP/NZD it's basically about which currency goes down less than the other at this point, although EU can certainly bottom short term somewhere around here and USD xxx goes down for a bit. This ECB printing might move the mkt huge...
I wholeheartedly disagree
Its a matter of NZD being choppy or falling. Don't gamble on NZD chopping your direction first.
And GBP getting stronger. Period.

The NZD is in a limbo. Strong economy but uncertain, high yield but rate uncertain, housing inflation management uncertain (loan rules for investor vs buying a house for your home), chinas long term story good but near term uncertain. RBNZ wants a lower exchange rate, but how it does so is a wait and see (uncertain) and could be a surprise any direction with any amount of force.


The GBP is improving. One of few countries considering when to RAISE rates vs so many countries EASING. So worldwide flows will strengthen GBP.
UK is following US in building economic strength and on way to tighten policy.
GBP should improve verse almost anything outside USD, until the USD starts to correct.

Please be careful.

GBPNZD has a great chart for a long term rise in GBP. Im watching 2.50 for next couple years. A break above 2.10 is not unlikely near term and could really rocket.

I recomend looking at USDCAD and GBPNZD charts from 2008-2015....
  • #825
  • Edited 3:34pm Mar 10, 2015 3:17pm | Edited 3:34pm
Quoting RideTheWave
{quote} I wholeheartedly disagree Its a matter of NZD being choppy or falling. Don't gamble on NZD chopping your direction first. And GBP getting stronger. Period. The NZD is in a limbo. Strong economy but uncertain, high yield but rate uncertain, housing inflation management uncertain (loan rules for investor vs buying a house for your home), chinas long term story good but near term uncertain. RBNZ wants a lower exchange rate, but how it does so is a wait and see (uncertain) and could be a surprise any direction with any amount of force. The GBP...
Yes I understand all of this and they are all great points. With all that said, though, GBP/NZD is in a high resistance zone and is very overbought on a short term basis. Expecting a small % move to downside is really no big deal. But like you said, and I agree, the potential for a big up move is there.
We can be in the 2.04's in a few days easily.... if we are, I hope I'm smart enough to still be in the short.... But I will definitely be interested in buying any big drops and making intraday plays both ways.
I also study volume/activity, and it looks like today is a very bearish day going forward, based on daily volume.... can sell off hard from here for sure.
  • #826
  • Mar 10, 2015 9:37pm Mar 10, 2015 9:37pm
Retest of the highs now at the 2.0770 area, knew I shoulda lightened up more 100 pips below, but the god damn spread was so ridiculous post us session.... now it's rallying hard of course. Totally ridiculous how this thing won't give in even a drop. Clearly a point of interest for sellers up here at 2.0770 though.. we'll see.
  • #827
  • Mar 10, 2015 9:41pm Mar 10, 2015 9:41pm
i know this pair is so stubborn when it wants to move in one direction ,it does at its will. I think it would be good if we wait till tomorrow's rbnz rate decision to get into trade.

again as u said the spreads will be crazy crazy ,during that release

good luck

Quoting Ck87
Retest of the highs now at the 2.0770 area, knew I shoulda lightened up more 100 pips below, but the god damn spread was so ridiculous post us session.... now it's rallying hard of course. Totally ridiculous how this thing won't give in even a drop.
  • #828
  • Mar 10, 2015 10:02pm Mar 10, 2015 10:02pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} It just goes higher and higher and higher and doesn't seem like it's going to stop. 2.08115 will probably get hit.
Just hit that level now, amazing this pair, never going to stop, another really serious level that technically should be defended but hey might as well just bid it up to 2.09 now and keep the gravy train going, this could actually be a short term top where it falls 100's of pips from, technically speaking it's all there. But as far as momentum goes this thing does not want to stop.
  • #829
  • Mar 10, 2015 10:29pm Mar 10, 2015 10:29pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Just hit that level now, amazing this pair, never going to stop, another really serious level that technically should be defended but hey might as well just bid it up to 2.09 now and keep the gravy train going, this could actually be a short term top where it falls 100's of pips from, technically speaking it's all there. But as far as momentum goes this thing does not want to stop.
Well, it still hasn't hit 1.0850 bid, but it ain't looking good. Its still moving opposite GBPUSD--I don't have any studies to back this up--but it seems like in the past, GBP has lead the pair. Whereas lately, NZD has been leading it.

Well, good luck man. I'm going to sleep now. If 1.0850 gets hit that would scare me out of a short. Don't let the thing run your account to the ground. Live to trade another day. You know this move will eventually fizzle out, but if not before 1.0850, then where?
  • #830
  • Mar 10, 2015 10:36pm Mar 10, 2015 10:36pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} Well, it still hasn't hit 1.0850 bid, but it ain't looking good. Its still moving opposite GBPUSD--I don't have any studies to back this up--but it seems like in the past, GBP has lead the pair. Whereas lately, NZD has been leading it. Well, good luck man. I'm going to sleep now. If 1.0850 gets hit that would scare me out of a short. Don't let the thing run your account to the ground. Live to trade another day. You know this move will eventually fizzle out, but if not before 1.0850, then where?
If it doesn't stop here below that 2.085- 2.0835 resistance, then it's easy to assume it'll go back to 2.1..... but this area is probably the most highly likely to at least put a dent in this run. Who knows. I wanted to lighten up more on the last downswing but the damn 30+ pip spread was a killer, I'm expecting another 100 pip drop in coming 12hrs and I will lighten up heavily there given the opportunity and not stress as much about this pair. Like you said, it will certainly fizzle out sooner or later, and have a nice size drop, question is when and where. I have no doubt these levels will be sold off, but moves like this tend to overshoot.
  • #831
  • Mar 10, 2015 10:37pm Mar 10, 2015 10:37pm
1.0930 next levels up from here, then opens up to 2.1050 highs.. if it can get that high again..
this thing could very very easily fizzle right out of momentum fairly rapidly anytime, and many shorters (expecially from here),
stand to make a lot of pips quickly. We'll see..

so much more of a dangerous pair to trade then some others like EU and even GU..
good luck shorters! Bears just around the corner.. if you can manage to hold the position IMO.
  • #832
  • Mar 10, 2015 10:48pm Mar 10, 2015 10:48pm
Quoting 2012mysterio
1.0930 next levels up from here, then opens up to 2.1050 highs.. if it can get that high again.. this thing could very very easily fizzle right out of momentum fairly rapidly anytime, and many shorters (expecially from here), stand to make a lot of pips quickly. We'll see.. so much more of a dangerous pair to trade then some others like EU and even GU.. good luck shorters! Bears just around the corner.. if you can manage to hold the position IMO.
Seems like an excellent intraday short at 2.0820, I don't know about after a would be drop from here though, all I'm seeing is dips being bought up and sent to new highs on this current run, which isn't good for bears.
Not a bull in sight for NZD/USD, while gbp just stays where it is.. this pair's finished if NZD doesn't get a bid soon. 160 pips in a straight line from the lows earlier, quite amazing.
  • #833
  • Mar 10, 2015 10:59pm Mar 10, 2015 10:59pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} If it doesn't stop here below that 2.085- 2.0835 resistance, then it's easy to assume it'll go back to 2.1..... but this area is probably the most highly likely to at least put a dent in this run. Who knows. I wanted to lighten up more on the last downswing but the damn 30+ pip spread was a killer, I'm expecting another 100 pip drop in coming 12hrs and I will lighten up heavily there given the opportunity and not stress as much about this pair. Like you said, it will certainly fizzle out sooner or later, and have a nice size drop, question...
2.0835 hit,,,,, we're pretty much at the line in the sand.... can not see how this won't bounce lower from here
  • #834
  • Mar 10, 2015 11:38pm Mar 10, 2015 11:38pm
I think if this doesn't move today, I'm going to go to sleep and dream of a 1000 pip fall.
  • #835
  • Mar 10, 2015 11:42pm Mar 10, 2015 11:42pm
One thing many traders have a hard time with is PATIENCE.
We must learn to FORCE PATIENCE. takes a long time.
makes moves like this worthwhile..
  • #836
  • Mar 11, 2015 12:20am Mar 11, 2015 12:20am
Quoting 2012mysterio
I think if this doesn't move today, I'm going to go to sleep and dream of a 1000 pip fall.
You still waiting for 2.1? Can only hope this is the start of a bigger intraday correction right here.. Have no faith in it coming down and then not coming back up, been burned every time so far on that one.
  • #837
  • Mar 11, 2015 1:06am Mar 11, 2015 1:06am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} You still waiting for 2.1? Can only hope this is the start of a bigger intraday correction right here.. Have no faith in it coming down and then not coming back up, been burned every time so far on that one.
Hi Ck, no not waiting for it to hit the highest point, but seeing nice drops from these levels right here.
Would be nice if this is the top right here. GN is so unpredictable though..
We might get the drop, its looking to start now..i never start big positions with this pair.. it may go to 2.1, but we can start a position here ideally, or add to one here..
  • #838
  • Mar 11, 2015 2:04am Mar 11, 2015 2:04am
Gidday NZ Hobitts

Tempting been in out of a few shorts

bit loaded up in the other NZ pairs

Think I will take the high road an wait
  • #839
  • Mar 11, 2015 2:29am Mar 11, 2015 2:29am
I plan on starting to add shorts once we hit the 2.10 level... though my faith in the NZD is starting to dwindle, NU is having an almost vertical drop over the last few days...
  • #840
  • Mar 11, 2015 2:48am Mar 11, 2015 2:48am
Quoting krassen
I plan on starting to add shorts once we hit the 2.10 level... though my faith in the NZD is starting to dwindle, NU is having an almost vertical drop over the last few days...
sounds like a good idea.. if/when we make it up there.. might be soon at this rate.. I can see a big drop from here though.. hmmm..
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