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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #18,021
  • Mar 10, 2015 2:17am Mar 10, 2015 2:17am
Quoting infinitus
approaching the target zone? {image}

I think, that most Elliotticans have now above shown count.

Also EWI have this count: (taken fromTwitter)

Attached Image



But it seems, that only few have thought about, what comes after that.

Does the world think, that the problems in the Euro (zone) are structurally solved? Does the world think, that the actions of the ECB do have no further implications on the EURO? Does the world think, that imploding debt worldwide is not an act which leads to very strong deflation, and with the USD as reserve currency, in which most of the debt worldwide is denominated,will react in appreciating against nearly every other currency?


So let us think one step ahead:


maybe this

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  • #18,022
  • Mar 10, 2015 2:33am Mar 10, 2015 2:33am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} I think, that most Elliotticans have now above shown count. Also EWI have this count: (taken fromTwitter) {image} But it seems, that only few have thought about, what comes after that. Does the world think, that the problems in the Euro (zone) are structurally solved? Does the world think, that the actions of the ECB do have no further implications on the EURO? Does the world think, that imploding debt worldwide is not an act which leads to very strong deflation, and with the USD as reserve currency, in which most of the debt worldwide is...

03.10.2015 EURUSD long term count - food for thought

enjoy
  • #18,023
  • Mar 10, 2015 2:36am Mar 10, 2015 2:36am
time to go long
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  • #18,024
  • Mar 10, 2015 2:38am Mar 10, 2015 2:38am
Quoting infinitus
time to go long {image}

sentiment index on EU does only show 6% bulls left now

DXY has 96% bulls
  • #18,025
  • Mar 10, 2015 3:59am Mar 10, 2015 3:59am
Quoting janpec1000
EU structure is bear, no bottom, we go trough support sonner than later. Extended wave of overshoot to 970ish is short. http://prntscr.com/6etcgo
Support crashed as said. Structures rarely dissapoint.
  • #18,026
  • Mar 10, 2015 4:12am Mar 10, 2015 4:12am
Quoting infinitus
time to go long {image}
If you remember me saying month ago when we were above 1.15 that this might be one exclusive example in history where sentiments might fail on USD-EUR, becouse i still think we go lower (tech+fundi)no matter how extreme they were at 1.15. And so it was. For now my view is not changed at all. While big players mostly banks are not short EUR much anymore it is warning, and certainly from monthly view retracement should come, but longs can only be found from shorter Tfs if setups are there. So far i saw none, if there is one sure, worthy try but lets see not giving anything yet. Just saying not worth forcing longs at some 5-10 year old demand levels, makes little sense, only if something shorter term sets up is worth a trigger.
  • #18,027
  • Mar 10, 2015 4:21am Mar 10, 2015 4:21am
I guess the max available price (deep) for today is 1,0620-1,0630 zone ... The target shall go deeper each day, so each minute is progressing for the favour of the sellers ...

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Imagination rules the world ...
Selym Hyll Return This Year: na
  • #18,028
  • Mar 10, 2015 4:42am Mar 10, 2015 4:42am
EU
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  • #18,029
  • Mar 10, 2015 4:47am Mar 10, 2015 4:47am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} If you remember me saying month ago when we were above 1.15 that this might be one exclusive example in history where sentiments might fail on USD-EUR, becouse i still think we go lower (tech+fundi)no matter how extreme they were at 1.15. And so it was. For now my view is not changed at all. While big players mostly banks are not short EUR much anymore it is warning, and certainly from monthly view retracement should come, but longs can only be found from shorter Tfs if setups are there. So far i saw none, if there is one sure, worthy try...

Yes and no :-)

Last time we were at this low levels in sentiment, EU was around 1.10.The following days provided a rally of 400 pips or so......

Now with the ECB in full printing mode, buyers of European assets will eventually hedge their bets via hedging the Euro.

This may lead to a double positive for Euro:

a) buying of European assets needs Euro

b) hedging of the Euro may provide a floor



Any thoughts?
  • #18,030
  • Mar 10, 2015 4:49am Mar 10, 2015 4:49am
Quoting infinitus
EU {image} {image}

maybe later stop run into the 1.06-1.05 region
  • #18,031
  • Mar 10, 2015 4:55am Mar 10, 2015 4:55am
UDX

C = 1.618 of A

achieved
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  • #18,032
  • Mar 10, 2015 6:06am Mar 10, 2015 6:06am
Quoting infinitus
time to go long {image}

Still no solid sign from EU bulls and no sign of exhaustion from USDx ... maybe USDx want to try level 100.

Better 'wait & see' for longer-term Long meanwhile its safer to only Long-scalp I think.
  • #18,033
  • Mar 10, 2015 8:26am Mar 10, 2015 8:26am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Yes and no :-) Last time we were at this low levels in sentiment, EU was around 1.10.The following days provided a rally of 400 pips or so...... Now with the ECB in full printing mode, buyers of European assets will eventually hedge their bets via hedging the Euro. This may lead to a double positive for Euro: a) buying of European assets needs Euro b) hedging of the Euro may provide a floor Any thoughts?
I would say no:

1.FED rate hike for those who can read between the lines is already in printed. No matter of June or September or even 2016 they are getting in, with every FED speech more forward about it more getting in, this has huge net negative flow of capital from EUR and the rest of the world.

2.You dont know exact numbers of buyers of QE that are actually in need of additional EURO. They might be using swaps of USD just like it was in 2008-10 when FED was printing for 50% of world using swaps of USD to fill sheets or whatever was in buying power. So no clear conclsuion there.

3.Hedging bets not likely with USD gaining 20% in short time over EUR, barelly anyone is hedging in longs on this down trend for short term peroid. Maybe for 2k pips+. Heavy rally of USD only has additional positive pressure onto USD and EUR negative.

4.ECB QE is priced in most of it (up+down). Again those who can read between the lines are already in since few months ago. Dont listen to those who were doubtin about QE implementation 1 month ago, those might have got in few days ago, but they are not market.

I would say down pressure remains. Only FED dissapointment can do great in June. ECB can go more negative on rates, would not be surprised if that happens. SNB can go and i think they will go 90% further lower, which means that capital flows wont flow back into EZ; but probably US more likely.
All pointing towards more EU down. That does not exclude technical retrace 200-300 pips however.
  • #18,034
  • Mar 10, 2015 8:27am Mar 10, 2015 8:27am
Quoting infinitus
UDX C = 1.618 of A achieved {image}
Long term from all pairs on table atm USDCHF is by far most safest and probably to be profitable trade in near future.
  • #18,035
  • Mar 10, 2015 10:54am Mar 10, 2015 10:54am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Long term from all pairs on table atm USDCHF is by far most safest and probably to be profitable trade in near future.
I am sure most of the traders - including me - have removed USDCHF from their list of interest
Imagination rules the world ...
Selym Hyll Return This Year: na
  • #18,036
  • Mar 10, 2015 11:00am Mar 10, 2015 11:00am
Quoting selym_co
{quote} I am sure most of the traders - including me - have removed USDCHF from their list of interest
Sure, but its like removing stocks from investing in 2008 from list. After that they rallied and anyone involved in has made excellent %. CHF is same, scares are going to drop away after shock has been placed in, those who can read it properly will stay and trade of it as read opurtunity comes only now.


Long placed: March 18-19th.
  • #18,037
  • Mar 10, 2015 11:14am Mar 10, 2015 11:14am
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
Consumer Spending Tumbles: BofA Blames Snow, Oil; Claims Its Models Are Right, Reality Is Wrong
  • #18,038
  • Mar 10, 2015 11:47am Mar 10, 2015 11:47am
Quoting infinitus
UDX C = 1.618 of A achieved {image}
that is 1.618 extension for DXY. It is also 1.618 projection (CD) from last up swing AB.

The dow Jones dollar is at 100% projection of last up swing.

coincidentally UJ got rejected for breaking last high of December 2014



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ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #18,039
  • Mar 10, 2015 12:33pm Mar 10, 2015 12:33pm
Quoting infinitus
EU maybe this? {image}

so far, so good

maybe 0670-0530 area next
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  • #18,040
  • Mar 10, 2015 12:36pm Mar 10, 2015 12:36pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} so far, so good maybe 0670-0530 area next {image}
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