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45 Combo - momentum system

  • #2,361
  • Edited 2:48pm Mar 10, 2015 3:12am | Edited 2:48pm
short off-topic:

ok, this has nothing to do with this thread, but it helps me to orientate:

if you watch 40ema and 200ema on a m15 chart, you see clear downtrends on EU and GU, an uptrend on UJ.

probabilities are high, that we will have signals in this direction.

i have learned this stuff years ago from the choros-thread.

birdland
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #2,362
  • Mar 10, 2015 3:14am Mar 10, 2015 3:14am
Quoting Go5
{quote} I admit, hard to see but the third candle before trigger closed below..{image}
Look... your barely swing qualified on this while you have eu and ej looking much more momo like... on top of it you got a PB on uj that is not Mac qualified (barely tipped over) and your narrow qualify signal candle is barely a cross close... so maybe it is wise to pass and wait for the eu and ej development.

However the risk on Uj was very low and it's all good.

Cheers,
  • #2,363
  • Mar 10, 2015 3:15am Mar 10, 2015 3:15am
Quoting Go5
{quote} I admit, hard to see but the third candle before trigger closed below..{image}
Well, I had to magnify my chart to see it. You're right... My short sight saved me some pips this time...
  • #2,364
  • Mar 10, 2015 3:21am Mar 10, 2015 3:21am
Quoting birdland
... you see clear downtrends on EU and GU, an uptrend on UJ. probabilities are high, that we will have signals in this direction....
There are many ways to check higher trends, but I thought that Ty's philosophy was clear by now. It's not fishing for trends... rather for quick moves that can turn into trends or not. Our winning probablities reside in other fields than trends. But, again, if it works for you, just keep on.
  • #2,365
  • Mar 10, 2015 3:22am Mar 10, 2015 3:22am
Quoting Go5
{quote} I admit, hard to see but the third candle before trigger closed below..{image}
i always try to find a reason NOT to take the trade. there were some as TX commented.

so i pass many trade setups, but my probability rises...
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #2,366
  • Mar 10, 2015 3:28am Mar 10, 2015 3:28am
Quoting birdland
short off-topic: ok, this has nothing to do with this thread, but it helps me to orientate: if you watch 40ema and 200ema on a m15 chart, you see clear downtrends on EU and GU, an uptrend on UJ. probabilities are high, that we will have signals in this direction. i have learned this stuff years ago from the choros-thread. birldland

This kind of stuff saves you as many times than fails you... it's a wash, don't complicate it for yourself otherwise it will grow on you like a fungus, before you know it you be crossing your eyes on every tf, and thats just nuts, lol.


But who am I to tell you... maybe just a heads up for others.


Cheers,
  • #2,367
  • Mar 10, 2015 3:38am Mar 10, 2015 3:38am
Quoting birdland
short off-topic: ok, this has nothing to do with this thread, but it helps me to orientate: if you watch 40ema and 200ema on a m15 chart, you see clear downtrends on EU and GU, an uptrend on UJ. probabilities are high, that we will have signals in this direction. i have learned this stuff years ago from the choros-thread. birldland
Thanks for this, it's always interesting to get an insight into how others see things. How did you factor this into your trades yesterday?
  • #2,368
  • Mar 10, 2015 3:44am Mar 10, 2015 3:44am
Some of the best 1m winners come out of no-where and highly in conflict of other TF's..

Most may not believe it and that's just fine.. only time and many many trades will settle that for you.

My long experience has been at your disposal for slight short cut..
However, I still think you should get it checked out for yourself for however long it takes.. I traveled that road and so should you.

Cheers,
  • #2,369
  • Mar 10, 2015 3:45am Mar 10, 2015 3:45am
Quoting pullup
{quote} Thanks for this, it's always interesting to get an insight into how others see things. How did you factor this into your trades yesterday?
yesterday was a "shakeout day" for the shorts trend followers...there was enough room between m15 40 and 200 to make pips on longs.

but you dont need it here to be successful with this very shortterm system. so if you are not familiar with this m15 stuff, please dont follow...it can confuse more

than help

birdland
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #2,370
  • Mar 10, 2015 3:55am Mar 10, 2015 3:55am
Quoting fx-Tycoon
Some of the best 1m winners come out of no-where and highly in conflict of other TF's.. Most may not believe it ...
Even in this short time we've been trading your system, we've witnessed this happening quite a few times, so it's not hard to believe by now. Birdland is trading it with his own experience, and that's fine as well. The important bit is that the system is efficient enough as it is, with no needed complications, so my humble 2c is that we better focus on what we have already at hand, and try to improve our own skills on it.
  • #2,371
  • Mar 10, 2015 4:00am Mar 10, 2015 4:00am
Quoting birdland
{quote} yesterday was a "shakeout day" for the shorts trend followers...there was enough room between m15 40 and 200 to make pips on longs. but you dont need it here to be successful with this very shortterm system. so if you are not familiar with this m15 stuff, please dont follow...it can confuse more than help birdland
Thanks, I think I fall within the last statement .
  • #2,372
  • Edited 4:18am Mar 10, 2015 4:07am | Edited 4:18am
I give you guys a live example...

look at eu chart at the very moment... and I don't even have to look at other tf's to know that 15,30,1hr are all lined up for short trade as pa is trending bear.
so a pullback on m1 gives a signal... and rather a high probability signal since it's all lined up!!..

to me... if this situation does develop into a signal is got not much higher probability than the today's GU or any other trade we take strictly off 1m observation.
The bottom line is "we just don't know" .. anything under daily is short term and you're better off to trade it off shortest tf to be the first one in the move to catch it before it dies down as it often does.
it provides enough doze of signals consistently every day... this allows you to plan and something to work on... then, you add other structure such as some basic rules and last but not least a sound Management (money, risk, daily) to tag consistent profitability week in week out. keeping it simple, all off one tf.

I made this post for the reason that I see some dangerous divination occurring in this thread by some... so wanted to remind the core of this method and what works for it, thats all... you can do what you want and allowed to do, time will tell which path is more effective.

In that note I am going to bed and it was nice watching the live chart of my session after some absence, I do that for couple of time in between my vacation time to not lose touch.

Oh and that EA thing by the commercial guy... it's nothing but wast of your time as it will make you lose touch and feel for the live market and that is not good for a short term/scalper type of trader... you be the judge but please I gentle warn everyone to not ever talk about it in here, keep it at the commercial corner.

See you in a while.

Cheers,
  • #2,373
  • Mar 10, 2015 4:09am Mar 10, 2015 4:09am
Thanks fx
  • #2,374
  • Mar 10, 2015 4:35am Mar 10, 2015 4:35am
+17 with EJ

i missed EU, but due to the risk so late in the day.

EOB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYM1.png Size: 95 KB
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #2,375
  • Mar 10, 2015 5:44am Mar 10, 2015 5:44am
Quoting birdland
+17 with EJ i missed EU, but due to the risk so late in the day. EOB {image}
i am curious why nobody else here took this valid trade?
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #2,376
  • Mar 10, 2015 5:57am Mar 10, 2015 5:57am
Quoting birdland
{quote} i am curious why nobody else here took this valid trade?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYM1.png Size: 30 KB


i took it...messed up but in my favour,,, lol
  • #2,377
  • Mar 10, 2015 6:57am Mar 10, 2015 6:57am
Quoting birdland
{quote} i am curious why nobody else here took this valid trade?
I didn't take it because I thought the 80pip move down could have exhausted momentum.
  • #2,378
  • Mar 10, 2015 12:57pm Mar 10, 2015 12:57pm
Quoting fx-Tycoon
Some of the best 1m winners come out of no-where and highly in conflict of other TF's.. Most may not believe it and that's just fine.. only time and many many trades will settle that for you. My long experience has been at your disposal for slight short cut.. However, I still think you should get it checked out for yourself for however long it takes.. I traveled that road and so should you. Cheers,
  • #2,379
  • Mar 10, 2015 1:35pm Mar 10, 2015 1:35pm
Quoting chicagolynx
Wow.. today's NY session is a mine. Lots of gold to dig. Took five trades and ended up positive with all of them. GU Sell +12.2 EU Sell +13.1 -> This and above GU was closed early because I was already -27.9 pips during the Asian session. Daily management learned from Ty. UJ Sell +20 EJ Sell +1.9 (Didn't stick to the rule.. not a good trade. If I were more patient, would have been +20) GU Buy + 20 {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
Well done, but... wow... u trade 3 sessions? I don't know where you live, but do you ever sleep?
  • #2,380
  • Mar 10, 2015 1:59pm Mar 10, 2015 1:59pm
Quoting chicagolynx
Wow.. today's NY session is a mine. Lots of gold to dig. Took five trades and ended up positive with all of them. GU Sell +12.2 EU Sell +13.1 -> This and above GU was closed early because I was already -27.9 pips during the Asian session. Daily management learned from Ty. UJ Sell +20 EJ Sell +1.9 (Didn't stick to the rule.. not a good trade. If I were more patient, would have been +20) GU Buy + 20 {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
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