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As simple as possible: 00 level trading

  • #27,181
  • Mar 8, 2015 12:51pm Mar 8, 2015 12:51pm
Quoting Forest-Sea
{quote} D -- from what I have noted it appears most of your (recent) success comes from London entries and much less NY. Is this an exception, or has London consistently been the winner? Obviously, you choose to get up, even if briefly, at about 3 am your time. That suggests the LO is pretty important. Your observations? FS
London definitely capable of multiple candle runs consistently. When NY opens it can take awhile to sort itself out. I take every trade opening new hour unless in a run already. It's easy to see the History in H1 candles. Just running the chart back instills reward. It's quite repetitive. H4 can be rewarding also and obviously easier sleep wise but can have some real low weeks. The Law of Probability works best in London when especially first couple hours when Bulls and Bears are pushing hard. There are more productive pairs same time than EU but also more volatility. I really like my cheap 11pip stop loss. I can gain 50 pips drunk for a week and cover 5 stop losses in a row which has never happened. Trading GU could reap some shameful profits. Tro say's don't think, react but make sure your house is in order.

Edit: you have awakened my curiosity. 12 noon est till 5pm looks promising if I get tired of this time I trade. 10-30 pips look doable.
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  • #27,182
  • Edited 1:30pm Mar 8, 2015 1:06pm | Edited 1:30pm
hi, Robinho, I am totaly agree with you about the 20 pips stop AND ALL THE EDGE GIVEN BY THE UDINE SYSTEM'S... In this time, you have the highest PROBABILITY WITH TO GO IN THE GOOD DIRECTION FOR YOUR TRADE.
With your forexprofit supreme meter... the 2 highest and the 2 lower, you have 4 pairs to apply the udine strategy....the only big warning is your next entry...after a big move.... I use the 10.5 currency ( adjust TF 30 min) just to show me the cross over ( buy or sell in respect with the DOlines).

I solve this by trying to enter the next 00level pointed by the 1hr M-candle or the 1hr TF chart( same). at this time MAYBE a stochastic indicator can be help you and also I think in term of % I am ready to risk and adjust the lotsize with the stoploss I wan to use... final will be a progression account lawer than udine but progression...
Now for the target, you can take the initial 5 pips suggest by Udine or the same % you wan to have VS risk ( but maybe higher than 5 pips and it is reducing the probability to reach this.... In my case I spoted the last fractal and when he is broken , I can have a small idea how much pips I cans and I modified the stoplos for each pips I win... EX. if the market continu only 15-pips my stop loss is now only 5 pips... but difficulty is I take the profit or not?.... udine strategy is easy.... 5 pips go out, it is all... or you can spot the last high, low for the prvious day... it is good also. I gave already with some exemples chart for the very big ATR pair...
Finally, if your broker have the spread too big like me, may be it is time to look for a better broker for this stategy....

For ALL, don't forget what udine and Yelena repeat very often... hAVE A PLAN.....

THANK FOR THE NEW INDICATORS
Yes swingman I hope to have a Dashboard...suggession: have a process to permit to open a chart just clicing on an icone...

I try to be here next week ...

Best for each of you and don't forget: more idea in 2 heads than 1 head and it is very good to share... together we are better than 1...

have a nice day

liberty55
  • #27,183
  • Mar 8, 2015 3:38pm Mar 8, 2015 3:38pm
Quoting dforant1
{quote} Tro say's don't think, react but make sure your house is in order. Edit: you have awakened my curiosity. 12 noon est till 5pm looks promising if I get tired of this time I trade. 10-30 pips look doable. {image}

I have great respect for TRO . . . especially in his locating statistical edges. He is a master at that.

I, too, see 10 and up to around 20 pips on offer many days after the dust settles on the NY opening. I took a look starting at 1100 on which doesn't fit your chart perfectly and must be examined by inspection.

One more interesting issue here is the choice of day opening. I believe you have opted for a 0000 EST start, slightly earlier than many of the charts used by those trading from Europe and the UK. I usually prefer the D1 traders 1700 (5pm, EST) as the new trading day opens around the world in Asia/Pacific. This may be less meaningful for H1 trading and down, but will, generally, provide a different start point which is important with the Udine system in which we want to match D1 and H1.

FS
  • #27,184
  • Mar 8, 2015 3:40pm Mar 8, 2015 3:40pm
Quoting SwingMan
{quote} I dont know. In one-two weeks I will finish a DashBoard for the 00-levels system like this: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...09#post3285809 with some of the enumerated formulas. If anyone has interest, I could post this in forum.
Since I can't PM, I'll reply here. You can post whatever you want to, but please do not give too much away. There are way too many people that come into Forex wanting to be spoon-fed everything so they can get rich without thinking or doing any work. My dashboard is pretty good now, and with this next addition, I expect it to increase in accuracy (after testing), but it is not free. Why? Because A) it has been a lot of work, B) if I can get enough subscribers so I don't need to worry about a day job, I can focus more on trading and continuing to improve the dashboard, and C) if people want success they either need to work at it, or pay for it. Just my opinion. Thanks.
  • #27,185
  • Mar 8, 2015 7:19pm Mar 8, 2015 7:19pm
The spirit of the thread has been to help and to share, not to commercialize. It sure would be nice if it stayed that way. Just my opinion!
  • #27,186
  • Mar 8, 2015 7:57pm Mar 8, 2015 7:57pm
Quoting ronwalt
The spirit of the thread has been to help and to share, not to commercialize. It sure would be nice if it stayed that way. Just my opinion!

Ronwalt, thanks for saying it, I am sure you are not alone in your opinion.


PGPB
  • #27,187
  • Mar 8, 2015 8:59pm Mar 8, 2015 8:59pm
Quoting ronwalt
The spirit of the thread has been to help and to share, not to commercialize. It sure would be nice if it stayed that way. Just my opinion!
Honestly, I'm not trying to commercialize it, I was very surprised when the FF Admins decided to move this thread to Commercial, and I'm sorry if they did simply because I wrote a dashboard to help people spot the setups for Udine's system. On the other hand, I'm glad they did because they refused to allow me to post ANYTHING in a non-commercial topic, even though I have been helping people and giving away indicators, EAs and scripts for free, for years, and when I asked how I can become non-Commercial member again, I got no answer at all. I know other members who sell things on their own web sites who are not classified as Commercial here, but for some reason I am. I will still help for free with any indicators, EAs and scripts, except for the Dashboard. Obviously, there is plenty of information here to make anyone a successful trader who takes the time to study and learn, so my Dashboard is not required, therefore, the spirit of this topic is not commercial at all, since Udine has never tried to sell anything here. Good luck to everyone, and may we all make money trading here!
  • #27,188
  • Edited Mar 9, 2015 4:05am Mar 8, 2015 10:01pm | Edited Mar 9, 2015 4:05am
Quoting pgpb
{quote} Let's say your edge adds one winner. The series would then look like this: Win1, Win1, Win1, Win1, Win1, Lose 2, Lose2 (repeat this many times) You will be ahead over the series by 1+1+1+1+1-2-2=1 becomes 1+1+1+1+1-4-4= -3PGPB
Hi pgpb,

Not so! You have neglected to update the series sample to match the new RR. Here's what I mean:

In my original example, the breakeven series was represented by six trades consisting of four wins of 1 and two losses of 2.
Win1, Win1, Win1, Win1, Lose2, Lose2 or
4Win1 - 2Lose2 = 0 (breakeven)
This is for an RR of Risk = 2 and Reward = 1.

However for an RR of Risk = 20 and Reward = 5.7 we have to use a different breakeven series like this:
Win5.7, Win5.7, Win5.7, Win5.7, Win5.7, Win5.7, Win5.7, Lose20, Lose20 or
7Win5.7 - 2Lose20 = 39.9 - 40 = -0.1 (not perfect but close enough for this discussion)

If the edge adds one winner it becomes
8Win5.7 - 2Lose20 = 45.6 - 40 = 5.6

If the edge removes one loser it becomes
7Win5.7 - 1Lose20 = 39.9 - 20 = 19.9

If the edge (remember it has two parts) adds one winner and removes one loser you get
8Win5.7 - 1Lose20 = 45.6 -20 = 25.6

When I think of the relationship between RR and WR I keep the following three things in mind:

(1)
BEWR (Break Even Win Rate) = Risk/(Risk+Reward)

For Udine's RR, BEWR comes out to 2/(2+1) = 0.6666... or a BEWR of 66.667%

For Robinho's RR, BEWR comes out to 20/(20+5.7) = 0.77281 or a BEWR of 77.281%

IMPORTANT POINT: A traders choice of RR directly drives and determines the BEWR!

(2)
AWR (Actual Win Rate) is the win rate you achieve over a series of trades by consistently applying a system with a postive edge.

As long as the AWR is greater than the BEWR chosen by the trader, the method will be profitable over the long term.

(3)
BADiff (Difference between BEWR and AWR)

Look at the attached graph. The curved line represents the plot of many different RR ratios. This is the BEWR curve. It is up to trader to choose where along this curve they are comfortable trading. The colored dots represent the AWR plotted relative to the BEWR curve. As long as the dots are above the BEWR curve, the trader will build their account steadily over time. If the AWR plots below the BEWR curve, the trader will deplete their account over time.

The BADiff is simply the vertical distance between the chosen point on the BEWR curve and the AWR point.

So, generally speaking, it does not matter what RR one chooses to trade, as long as their system and their application of it produces an AWR that is above the chosen point on the BEWR curve.

NOTE: I will point out that RR values above 1 do have a slight advantage in that a given BADiff will produce a higher Expectancy. Or, to put it another way, at a higher RR, a smaller (weaker?) BADiff will yield the same Expectancy as a higher BADiff at a lower RR.

Whether all the above helps or confuses, time will tell. I hope it helps someone.

Dial
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  • #27,189
  • Mar 8, 2015 11:06pm Mar 8, 2015 11:06pm
Quoting diallist
{quote} Hi pgpb, Not so! You have neglected to update the series sample to match the new RR. Here's what I mean: In my original example, the breakeven series was represented by six trades consisting of four wins of 1 and two losses of 2. Win1, Win1, Win1, Win1, Lose2, Lose2 or 4Win1 - 2Lose2 = 0 (breakeven) This is for an RR of Risk = 2 and Reward = 1. However for an RR of Risk = 20 and Reward = 5.7 we have to use a different breakeven series like this: Win5.7, Win5.7, Win5.7, Win5.7, Win5.7, Win5.7, Win5.7, Lose20, Lose20 or 7Win5.7 - 2Lose20 =...
Thanks diallist! Interesting read!

How does the "cost of doing business" affect the choice of RR? I assume some RR's will require an increased number of trades, therefore more commissions spread?

Vlad
  • #27,190
  • Mar 9, 2015 1:58am Mar 9, 2015 1:58am
Good morning,

PM's have been replied.

a new week, new opportunities , but dont get greedy

PDF & BCC is all it takes..

cheers

Udine
Sleep less, live fast, as it aint gonna last
  • #27,191
  • Mar 9, 2015 3:25am Mar 9, 2015 3:25am
Quoting Vlad13685
{quote} Thanks diallist! Interesting read! How does the "cost of doing business" affect the choice of RR? I assume some RR's will require an increased number of trades, therefore more commissions spread? Vlad
Hi Vlad, I'm glad you found it an interesting read.

Spread and Commissions will alter the RR somewhat based on how the individual trader incorporates them into their stop and target. Regardless of which way these cause the RR to slide along the BEWR curve, that point ends up where it ends up. What matters then is where the AWR lands relative to that point on the BEWR curve. Where one starts on the curve is not as important as focusing on getting the AWR to be as far above the curve as possible.

Number of trades is independent of RR. The location of the AWR point above the BEWR curve is determined after a series of trades. That series can be most any length, but the longer the better. Common sense tells us that an AWR arrived at after only 20 trades will not be as stable as an AWR arrived at after 1000 trades. Let's say we use 100 trades as our series. Whether these 100 trades are taken over one week or one hundred days makes no difference. The AWR doesn't care how long it took to form. All it cares about is how far above the BEWR curve it is. It also doesn't care which point along the curve it is above either.

Dial
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #27,192
  • Mar 9, 2015 3:31am Mar 9, 2015 3:31am
Quoting diallist
{quote} Hi pgpb, Not so! You have neglected to update the series sample to match the new RR. Here's what I mean: In my original example, the breakeven series was represented by six trades consisting of four wins of 1 and two losses of 2. Win1, Win1, Win1, Win1, Lose2, Lose2 or 4Win1 - 2Lose2 = 0 (breakeven) This is for an RR of Risk = 2 and Reward = 1. However for an RR of Risk = 20 and Reward = 5.7 we have to use a different breakeven series like this: Win5.7, Win5.7, Win5.7, Win5.7, Win5.7, Win5.7, Win5.7, Lose20, Lose20 or 7Win5.7 - 2Lose20 =...
Great post, very interesting. This one was saved in my post library 5 seconds after i read it .

Asmodai
  • #27,193
  • Mar 9, 2015 3:56am Mar 9, 2015 3:56am
Udine , you need to pop in occasionally just to let the punters know the secret to "00" trading .....KEEP IT SIMPLE .. cheers Q
Whats That? you're trading What?
  • #27,194
  • Mar 9, 2015 4:12am Mar 9, 2015 4:12am
Good morning all, in the (sm)SlopeStrength indi, we have a signal when :

a) single currency (i.e. EUR) is greater that 0.8 (less that -0.8)
b) symbol (i.e. EURUSD) is greater that 0.8 (less that -0.8)

Are these the conditions that must be both satisfied to place an order ?

Best,
Bubincka
Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
  • #27,195
  • Mar 9, 2015 4:13am Mar 9, 2015 4:13am
Here's my first posted trade. I've been practicing in the background for a few months. Finally getting PDF and FTFR (Follow The F%#king Rules) figured out. Thanks to everyone for sharing their insight. I've finally read all the way thru this thread so hopefully Udine will smile. It looks like I may have entered just a few seconds early though, ops. TP anyways though
Attached Image
  • #27,196
  • Mar 9, 2015 4:53am Mar 9, 2015 4:53am
Question about RED news... How do you handle the all day events, like the Eurogroup Meetings today? It's a red event, but doesn't have a specific time.
  • #27,197
  • Mar 9, 2015 5:22am Mar 9, 2015 5:22am
Quoting Qed
Udine , you need to pop in occasionally just to let the punters know the secret to "00" trading .....KEEP IT SIMPLE .. cheers Q

Qed,

you are correct... trading this is not difficult...

here so far today..

my 4 pairs (EU, EJ,GU,GJ)
Timeframe 30M, as most of you seem to watch the 30M..

indies used:

AbsoluteStrengthHistogram
M candles

As Qed said: KISS

with the results of this month..

dont complicate matters, no need

PDF & BCC

cheers

Udine
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gek maken.jpg Size: 237 KB
Sleep less, live fast, as it aint gonna last
  • #27,198
  • Mar 9, 2015 5:45am Mar 9, 2015 5:45am
Quoting Udine
{quote} Qed, you are correct... trading this is not difficult... here so far today.. my 4 pairs (EU, EJ,GU,GJ) Timeframe 30M, as most of you seem to watch the 30M.. indies used: AbsoluteStrengthHistogram M candles As Qed said: KISS with the results of this month.. dont complicate matters, no need PDF & BCC cheers Udine {image}
Good to see you Udine.

You watching the pairs in 30m now or do still watch in 15m??

From the quick look i had at your screenshot, it looks your using your 15m method with a modified M-Candles on top of ASH. Will take a deeper look to try to get more clues.

Asmodai
  • #27,199
  • Mar 9, 2015 6:02am Mar 9, 2015 6:02am
I previously wrote that Udine was using his 15m method and then realized that he was not trading the "reversals". Got confused because Udine takes entries at 00 and 50 levels.

Asmodai
  • #27,200
  • Mar 9, 2015 7:05am Mar 9, 2015 7:05am
I was asked by PM, what risk I used today..

risk 2% as always..

cheers

Udine
Sleep less, live fast, as it aint gonna last
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