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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #17,961
  • Mar 7, 2015 12:07pm Mar 7, 2015 12:07pm
EU volume profiles

look at the 400 pips no-business zone!!!

Either we form a base here quickly, or we get a fairly hefty snap-back soon
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  • #17,962
  • Mar 7, 2015 12:08pm Mar 7, 2015 12:08pm
Murrey Math and VWAP
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  • #17,963
  • Mar 7, 2015 12:09pm Mar 7, 2015 12:09pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} 1.0455? {image}

I am fine with that for many reasons stated before
  • #17,964
  • Mar 7, 2015 12:11pm Mar 7, 2015 12:11pm
Murrey Math based S/R levels with counter targets


keep in mind: be careful with Murrey Math levels when we are in a strong unidirectional move
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  • #17,965
  • Mar 7, 2015 12:12pm Mar 7, 2015 12:12pm
market statistics from Friday:
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  • #17,966
  • Mar 7, 2015 12:29pm Mar 7, 2015 12:29pm
EU

virgin POC's

I have seldomly seen so much virgin POC's on weekly and monthly
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  • #17,967
  • Mar 7, 2015 12:35pm Mar 7, 2015 12:35pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
"Monetary System, World Order We've Had Since 1940s Is Collapsing" Warns Richard Maybury
  • #17,968
  • Mar 7, 2015 1:58pm Mar 7, 2015 1:58pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
Jim Bianco Explains Why QE Failed, And Why The ECB Is Making The Same Mistake As The Fed

simple, but sounds reasonable
  • #17,969
  • Mar 7, 2015 2:04pm Mar 7, 2015 2:04pm
Europe's QE Quandary - QuickTake - Bloomberg
  • #17,970
  • Mar 7, 2015 2:12pm Mar 7, 2015 2:12pm
Can someone help me out?

It is regarding the ECB buying Government bonds:

How will this money find its way into the market?


Scenario A)

Government print bonds, and sell them to the ECB

They get cheap money, and can finance their Governmental- needs. In this way the money finds it way directly to companies


B) Are induviduums/companies/banks allowed to sell Govenmet-Bonds in their possession to the ECB?

But why should they do it? They could have simply cached out earlier. Add to this: maybe they hold Bonds with higher yield. Why should they sell?


What will be the main driver for stock-markets (mechanism)? Or is the simple driver of the stock markets at this point simply "expectations"?


Thanks in advance
  • #17,971
  • Mar 7, 2015 2:44pm Mar 7, 2015 2:44pm
Quoting infinitus
Can someone help me out? It is regarding the ECB buying Government bonds: How will this money find its way into the market? Scenario A) Government print bonds, and sell them to the ECB They get cheap money, and can finance their Governmental- needs. In this way the money finds it way directly to companies B) Are induviduums/companies/banks allowed to sell Govenmet-Bonds in their possession to the ECB? But why should they do it? They could have simply cached out earlier. Add to this: maybe they hold Bonds with higher yield. Why should they sell?...

When QE is designed to spur lending in the Eurozone, what makes them sure that it is not countries/companies outside of the Eurozone which will sell their European Bonds back to the ECB?

When QE is designed to spur lending, how is it, that right now people are not willing to take debt, or banks are not willing to lent out, when the interest is already near 0 (or also below zero)?
  • #17,972
  • Mar 7, 2015 2:58pm Mar 7, 2015 2:58pm
AXA Investment Managaer Explains Why The ECB's QE Has Already Failed Using "Widget Makers"
  • #17,973
  • Mar 7, 2015 3:26pm Mar 7, 2015 3:26pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Jan, any suggestions on EURGBP? Am still short, but try to pseudo-hedge a bit. Now over weekend completely neutral. So far -1.8% all in all.
Still bear in view. I am not good at calling where bounce will/could come becouse its not part of my trading so i only focous on finding entries along trend view. Retraces towards 7280 should be shorted, quite heavy supply there. I would expect it to go further down, we have pretty much nothing to lean on in EURUSD as from demand view, while GU is hitting daily demand which will result in EUR being weaker than GBP thus increasing chances for EG more down. Additionally EUR weakness can be seen trough all other pairs as its weaker than GBP even though USD is pushing both of them down, its obvious which one is traveling faster. 7280 and i will have interest to short, but i wouldnt be surprised not to see 7280 and we go straigh down from here without retracement.
  • #17,974
  • Mar 7, 2015 3:31pm Mar 7, 2015 3:31pm
Looking eagerly for next week, getting trading account bumped up in size severly. And then if i do good for month it gets even more bump. Week finished with +30% on scalping acc, only 1 losing trade (last one in Friday) over many many trades.
  • #17,975
  • Mar 7, 2015 4:10pm Mar 7, 2015 4:10pm
Quoting infinitus
EU S/R levels pink is weekly/monthly major support blue is the resistance which has build on the way down when we break 1.0760 meaningfully, there is not much in the way until 0.961 12h TF any opinion? {image}
Infinitus, we should recognize that when there are a so strong trend, like EU now, Murray Maths, Areas that has been less traded, doesn't give relevant information. From 1,30, there are 4-5 areas that hasn't been traded seldom one days or hours. The information is such useless...

On another hand. How do you get a resistance level??? We are in areas that hasn't been traded since 2003. I supposse you use FIBOS or lines... but who the hell is going to put a stop loss there??? Where are they going to buy???. When we are in virgin areas I do not understand the S/R.....

This reminds me.. 2003 I was so young, as you I suppose..

More for the weekend, I was in this concert!!!!! jumping and shouting.In the midle of that crowd. 1993. Las Ventas. Madrid. ACDC. Thunderstruck. Fell how the music makes the camera thrill and jump too. I was so young. Angus had started to get bold...Look the way he plays the guitar while he makes his famous walking..with his school dressing.... amazing... I get exhausted...

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  • #17,976
  • Mar 7, 2015 4:33pm Mar 7, 2015 4:33pm
Quoting infinitus
EU virgin POC's I have seldomly seen so much virgin POC's on weekly and monthly {image}
I let you one interesting thing. WHB in the daily. A hidden gap is a gap not closed. Blue lines shows you where there are power, shift in trading, areas where there has been a lot of trading. When the trend is very strong, the price doesn't come back to eat the gap, or the blue line. Since 1,40, the price has only fullfilled one daily gap.In november at 1,24xx. Those days trend gave us some long chances.It has been surrounding it two times...at 1,16xx and last one...at 15,30 ( they would have closed it at 15.55 and I thought they were going to closed it as they do in GU)
Daily candle with square inside means that day there has been a lot of volume of trading. I am sure that on Monday there will appear one square inside last day candle and one gap of course. One day with blue line means a lot of sell power at this case...
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  • #17,977
  • Mar 7, 2015 5:41pm Mar 7, 2015 5:41pm
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} Infinitus, we should recognize that when there are a so strong trend, like EU now, Murray Maths, Areas that has been less traded, doesn't give relevant information. From 1,30, there are 4-5 areas that hasn't been traded seldom one days or hours. The information is such useless... On another hand. How do you get a resistance level??? We are in areas that hasn't been traded since 2003. I supposse you use FIBOS or lines... but who the hell is going to put a stop loss there??? Where are they going to buy???. When we are in virgin areas I do...

ah, great music, isn't it?

Murrey Math is an optimal tool for sideways trading. But in strong trending markets it gives you also an idea where the interesting places can be. Maybe you have noticed, that I have only very seldomly shown the Murrey math tables since the EU is so strong trending.

The volume profile are important, because they give very good hints. For example: when price moves more than 3 SD's from the mean, do not expect mean reversion. Expect the price to form a new base higher/lower.

You asked about resistance levels. But I think you meant support levels. The support levels are very old now. But there is something like market memory. Oftentimes even extremly old levels get respect.

The S/R-chart I showed has only hand drawn S/R levels, nothing fibs or such a like. Pure S/R-levels
  • #17,978
  • Mar 7, 2015 6:14pm Mar 7, 2015 6:14pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
The ECB's Lunatic Full Monty Treatment
  • #17,979
  • Mar 7, 2015 10:36pm Mar 7, 2015 10:36pm
Quoting infinitus
EU S/R levels pink is weekly/monthly major support blue is the resistance which has build on the way down when we break 1.0760 meaningfully, there is not much in the way until 0.961 12h TF any opinion? {image}

Watch UJ my friend..
  • #17,980
  • Edited 11:08pm Mar 7, 2015 10:37pm | Edited 11:08pm
Quoting infinitus
market statistics from Friday: {image}
Hi Markus,
If you don't mind I have questions related with this table.

1-Why your weekly roll is still old one? Is your week end when Sunday end?
2-Why you use old atr values at counter targets calculation while you are using recent high-low as base points. I could not get the logic behind it
3-Why daily atr is old one while your roll value is friday close at the first part.
Thanks in advance.
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