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As simple as possible: 00 level trading

  • #27,161
  • Mar 6, 2015 2:43pm Mar 6, 2015 2:43pm
Quoting Robinho
{quote} ,,, put 20 pips Stop and 5.7 pips Tp (to pay the commission)
Robinho, congratulations on your success, I wish you continued good results!!
Very good!

Was the 20 pip SL required? (did you have more than 10 pip draw down on any trades?)

You are very good at choosing entries, (last time I will harp about this) but what if you had two losers in a row?, you would need to win the next 8 trades to just get back to even. (the two losses do not have to be back to back, to dig you into a hole

Assuming that you want to continue being profitable week after week, month after month, year after year I would think that you would not be able to stomach trading back out of two losses in a row.....just my thoughts.....however most of all congratulations on your wins.
  • #27,162
  • Mar 6, 2015 3:15pm Mar 6, 2015 3:15pm
Quoting SwingMan
{quote} I dont know. In one-two weeks I will finish a DashBoard for the 00-levels system like this: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...09#post3285809 with some of the enumerated formulas. If anyone has interest, I could post this in forum.
Indeed! I would like very much to see that work from your hand and mind! Thank you!
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  • #27,163
  • Edited 4:55pm Mar 6, 2015 3:37pm | Edited 4:55pm
Quoting pgpb
{quote} You are very good at choosing entries, (last time I will harp about this) but what if you had two losers in a row?, you would need to win the next 8 trades to just get back to even. (the two losses do not have to be back to back, to dig you into a hole Assuming that you want to continue being profitable week after week, month after month, year after year I would think that you would not be able to stomach trading back out of two losses in a row.....just my thoughts.....however most of all congratulations on your wins.
What you say is true, and looked at in isolation does make we silly humans tremble. But what everyone forgets is the flip side of the coin, that the number of winners is greater than the number of losers. As long as you have an edge, you will win in the long run. What an edge does is eliminate one or more losers, or adds one or more winners to an otherwise breakeven series.

Let's say you have this series:
Win1, Win1, Win1, Win1, Lose2, Lose2 (repeat this many times).
You will be at breakeven over the series by 1+1+1+1-2-2=0

Let's say your edge removes one loser. The series would then look like this:
Win1, Win1, Win1, Win1, Lose2 (repeat this many times).
You will be ahead over the series by 1+1+1+1-2=2

Let's say your edge adds one winner. The series would then look like this:
Win1, Win1, Win1, Win1, Win1, Lose 2, Lose2 (repeat this many times)
You will be ahead over the series by 1+1+1+1+1-2-2=1

In reality, your edge is really two-parted, or a combination of the last two scenarios above.

Given the current discussion, and the overall rules of Udine's H1:

The part of the edge that comprises the addition of wins is trading with the trend by combining daily direction, hourly direction and TMA slope all pointing in the same direction at the time of the trade entry. This adds winners to the series.

The part of the edge that comprises the reduction of losses is not taking trades if there are obstacles in the way, such as support or resistance, Big Round Numbers, Pivot lines and channel boundaries (and other similar type obstacles). If you see a potential barrier, then don't take the trade. It could be the trade not taken ends up being a winner, but that isn't really relevant. Why? Because the consistent application of obstacle avoidance will always eliminate more losers than winners for a net positive. (At least this has been my experience).

Just remember this basic mantra "The outcome of individual trades is meaningless. Only the outcome of a series of trades has meaning."

That is true because an edge does not manifest itself in a single trade, but only over an extended series of trades.

I know I'm preaching to the choir here, as I'm sure everyone here has long ago figured out what I just wrote. But I post it here anyway, because it helps me to constantly remind myself of it.

Hope my blathering was of some use.

Dial
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  • #27,164
  • Mar 6, 2015 3:56pm Mar 6, 2015 3:56pm
Quoting diallist
{quote} What you say is true, and looked at in isolation does make we silly humans tremble. But what everyone forgets is the flip side of the coin, that the number of winners is greater than the number of losers. As long as you have an edge, you will win in the long run. What an edge does is eliminate one or more losers, or adds one or more winners to an otherwise breakeven series. Let's say you have this series: Win1, Win1, Win1, Win1, Lose2, Lose2 (repeat this many times). You will be at breakeven over the series by 1+1+1+1-2-2=0 Let's say your...
Diallist, I have huge respect for you, and I agree Risk 2 Reward 1 can work, (and works for lots of people) but our friend Robinho, is risking 20 pips, to win 5.7, and that I really think is a mistake.
He is darn good at picking entries, but I think a 20 pip stop loss can not work

With a 20 pip stop, your scenario

Let's say your edge adds one winner. The series would then look like this:
Win1, Win1, Win1, Win1, Win1, Lose 2, Lose2 (repeat this many times)
You will be ahead over the series by 1+1+1+1+1-2-2=1

becomes 1+1+1+1+1-4-4= -3

Aside from the fact that you have to be really, really good at entries, you also have to have the stomach to dig yourself out of a hole.

Thumbs up to Robinho's success, I just question if it is sustainable.

Your input is much appreciated.

PGPB
  • #27,165
  • Mar 6, 2015 4:09pm Mar 6, 2015 4:09pm
Hi, this is my version of Slope Strength indicator. By clicking you can open chart windows.

Tom

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: control.png Size: 25 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 SlopeStrength_TP.ex4   43 KB | 342 downloads
  • #27,166
  • Edited Mar 7, 2015 1:27am Mar 6, 2015 4:14pm | Edited Mar 7, 2015 1:27am
Indicator smSlopeStrengthUserTF - version "v1.0.5"

A small insignificant bug has been fixed (for the M15 time frame, was displayed D1 in the title).
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 smSlopeStrengthUserTF.mq4   24 KB | 679 downloads
  • #27,167
  • Mar 6, 2015 7:12pm Mar 6, 2015 7:12pm
Quoting pgpb
{quote} Robinho, congratulations on your success, I wish you continued good results!! Very good! Was the 20 pip SL required? (did you have more than 10 pip draw down on any trades?) You are very good at choosing entries, (last time I will harp about this) but what if you had two losers in a row?, you would need to win the next 8 trades to just get back to even. (the two losses do not have to be back to back, to dig you into a hole Assuming that you want to continue being profitable week after week, month after month, year after year I would think...
I think that too ... I love the UDINE system, but I think 10 pips very tight stop, so use 20 pips.

But as I said in the post 27159, every day has a couple that takes all converging, and this pair can give us many pips. Yesterday in an entry gained 40 pips and 20 pips today. This entry with all convergent, I'm leaving EA Wukar off ... and so arrives at a certain number of pips, pull my stop ... Today could have won multiple entries with more than 10 pips ... I'm getting the hang ... but this convergence indicator Supreme Meter + slope + M30 = M15 = M05 that I use has worked.

M30 = M15 = M05: make the entry when the last candles are all in the same color.

I wish everyone a weekend of much peace.
  • #27,168
  • Mar 6, 2015 7:14pm Mar 6, 2015 7:14pm
Quoting SwingMan
{quote} It's alright, happened to me constantly when I program. What is still unclear for me is why the sum of two single pairs strengths is not the same with the values in the table. Check for example EURUSD. This I have not checked in the code.
Yes, I wondered that too, but you know how challenging it can be to interpret someone else's code!
  • #27,169
  • Mar 6, 2015 7:25pm Mar 6, 2015 7:25pm
Quoting diallist
{quote} What you say is true, and looked at in isolation does make we silly humans tremble. But what everyone forgets is the flip side of the coin, that the number of winners is greater than the number of losers. As long as you have an edge, you will win in the long run. What an edge does is eliminate one or more losers, or adds one or more winners to an otherwise breakeven series. Let's say you have this series: Win1, Win1, Win1, Win1, Lose2, Lose2 (repeat this many times). You will be at breakeven over the series by 1+1+1+1-2-2=0 Let's say your...
As I said before ... in February made over 140 entries and only lost 01 entry, putting a stop 50 pips to gain 05 pips. It's crazy?
I think the same as you ... The Udine system is wonderful ... with the proper use of force indicators + system rules, will hardly lose an entry to win 05 pips. As you said ... will be many victories, they will not remember what it is defeat.

fraternal embrace
  • #27,170
  • Mar 7, 2015 3:16am Mar 7, 2015 3:16am
Quoting pgpb
... How do I get the attached "10.5 CurrencySlopeStrength1.0.7d" indicator to match up with "smFxStrength TMA"?
It's easy to replace the functions from one in the other indicator, and then you have the same results.

But, you write "10.5 ..." and in the screen shot you have "10.2 ...".
  • #27,171
  • Mar 7, 2015 5:23am Mar 7, 2015 5:23am
Quoting SwingMan
{quote} It's easy to replace the functions from one in the other indicator, and then you have the same results. But, you write "10.5 ..." and in the screen shot you have "10.2 ...".
opps, sorry I am confusing two indicators, the one shown is the most recent one I have

PGPB
  • #27,172
  • Mar 7, 2015 8:00am Mar 7, 2015 8:00am
Quoting Robinho
{quote} As I said before ... in February made over 140 entries and only lost 01 entry, putting a stop 50 pips to gain 05 pips. It's crazy?


yes, crazy. :-) Of the 140 how many were demo and how many were real money? Maybe it is just me, but I firmly believe that trading is 90% managing ones emotions, 10% system. If it was me, an I saw my account drained by $1000 or $2000 because of a 50 pip stop loss, I would be a bit upset, and it would make me rather freak out, and I would have to have a lot of patience to win the next 10 trades just to get back to normal. Anyways we agree that the system is good, especially with the addition of the currency strength and slope indicators to help choose the right pairs to trade. I will always disagree with a 50 pip risk for a 5 pip reward.
I am fine with a 10 pip risk, but I would need a lot of convincing to switch to 20, anyways, I respectfully disagree but I wish you continued success and I wish you all good things. PGPB
  • #27,173
  • Mar 7, 2015 8:20am Mar 7, 2015 8:20am
Quoting pgpb
{quote} yes, crazy. :-) Of the 140 how many were demo and how many were real money? Maybe it is just me, but I firmly believe that trading is 90% managing ones emotions, 10% system. If it was me, an I saw my account drained by $1000 or $2000 because of a 50 pip stop loss, I would be a bit upset, and it would make me rather freak out, and I would have to have a lot of patience to win the next 10 trades just to get back to normal. Anyways we agree that the system is good, especially with the addition of the currency strength and slope indicators to...
Ok ... I am optimistic ...
the week will show the REAL account results I am now ... success !!!...
  • #27,174
  • Mar 7, 2015 10:58am Mar 7, 2015 10:58am
Quoting Forest-Sea
{quote} LuXing -- which TRIX do you use? I just loaded the smUltraSuperTrix 4 col. SuperTrix preferable? FS
Using two "smSuper TRIX_PV_4col" indis.
One set at 2,1,1,1 (the fastest) the other (slower) at 3,1,1,1.
These are very aggressive settings, once both are green or red on candle close, and I see what I like, jumping in.

LuXing
Wisdom begins in wonder
  • #27,175
  • Mar 7, 2015 12:11pm Mar 7, 2015 12:11pm
Quoting rapidedward
{quote} Hi dforant1, From one simpleton to another. Could you exercise patience with me and look at the attachment. How did you extract 80 pips using the LLLH exit? Wouldn't candle 3 signaled an exit. Mind you at this point in my I'd be wrapped with the 35 pips this trade generated. Thanks for your input. Rapid.{image}
Like I said in the post *take some or all*. Meaning depending upon exit strategy one might have. Someone may have a better exit system than mine. Some may require just 20 pips per day. Just showing what was available.

Disclaimer: under no circumstances am i responsible for anything I may post. Judge for yourself. )
  • #27,176
  • Mar 7, 2015 12:39pm Mar 7, 2015 12:39pm
Quoting pgpb
{quote} yes, crazy. :-) Of the 140 how many were demo and how many were real money? Maybe it is just me, but I firmly believe that trading is 90% managing ones emotions, 10% system.
so true
gEt BusY LiVinG oR Get bUsy dyIng
  • #27,177
  • Mar 7, 2015 1:48pm Mar 7, 2015 1:48pm
I would say trading is 70% mental, 20% $$ money management including including risk reward squared away and 10% system. I have run the gamet of systems myself. Each new participant in Forex should have a Mentor. It would make things much much more easier. Belonging to Forums at first is a disaster. Even if ya had to pay a mentor on the Net. Be worth time and effort. It is a fact most forums for methods start out honestly good systems. By page 50 all hell breaks loose. The inmates take charge of the Asylum. It's easy to veer off path. A mentor would say hey you're starting out with ABC and now on XYZ. Hold on get back to basics. It wouldn't take 2 months of grief and wasted time getting to your goal. Forums themselves can't do that they grow to size of War and Peace and get convoluted. My Mentor was a man called Rumpled One. Spoke to him about 5 years ago, he had a chat up and running live. He got me off stock and onto Forex. Trading micro amounts and horizontal lines. 4 text conversations all it took. Can't remember the last losing week last 6 months. Not all great but no loser weeks.

Newbies and lost souls, get a Mentor. Pay attention. Mine would not answer same question twice. Should have been called The Grumpy Man.
  • #27,178
  • Mar 7, 2015 1:56pm Mar 7, 2015 1:56pm
Quoting dforant1
I would say trading is 70% mental, 20% $$ money management including including risk reward squared away and 10% system. I have run the gamet of systems myself. Each new participant in Forex should have a Mentor. It would make things much much more easier. Belonging to Forums at first is a disaster. Even if ya had to pay a mentor on the Net. Be worth time and effort. It is a fact most forums for methods start out honestly good systems. By page 50 all hell breaks loose. The inmates take charge of the Asylum. It's easy to veer off path. A mentor would...
dforant1,

I was perhaps too quick to judge you in our first encounter. Having closely read your subsequent posts, I find I am beginning to like the way your think and the way you present yourself. Thanks for your insights and sharing of experience.

dial
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #27,179
  • Mar 7, 2015 2:27pm Mar 7, 2015 2:27pm
Quoting dforant1
I would say trading is 70% mental, 20% $$ money management including including risk reward squared away and 10% system. I have run the gamet of systems myself. Each new participant in Forex should have a Mentor. It would make things much much more easier. Belonging to Forums at first is a disaster. Even if ya had to pay a mentor on the Net. Be worth time and effort. It is a fact most forums for methods start out honestly good systems. By page 50 all hell breaks loose. The inmates take charge of the Asylum. It's easy to veer off path. A mentor would...
Good post df!
One on one is always best way. I'm a mentor myself, so i'm biased.
Trouble most times is a mentor will give you his/her way of trading, so a system they use or a technical pattern etc
The best mentors will be those that understand how the market works and can pass that knowledge on.

I see a serious knowledge gap between the average retail trader and a trading professional. A professional understands how the financial system works and can interact with it to take consistent money with confidence.
I see plenty of focus by the retail crowd on things that institutional traders barely consider. And the things institutional traders place plenty of weight on retailers don't pay attention to or they know they should but cannot make practical application of.

I pass onto my students an institutional mindset. When you have this mindset you know exactly what you're doing and you know why you're getting paid. And when that happens, you have a quiet confidence knowing that further into the future you'll continue to get paid regardless of the markets and conditions.

Regards
  • #27,180
  • Mar 7, 2015 5:12pm Mar 7, 2015 5:12pm
Quoting dforant1
Trading . . . horizontal line . . . Can't remember the last losing week last 6 months. Not all great but no loser weeks.
D -- from what I have noted it appears most of your (recent) success comes from London entries and much less NY. Is this an exception, or has London consistently been the winner?

Obviously, you choose to get up, even if briefly, at about 3 am your time. That suggests the LO is pretty important.

Your observations?

FS
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