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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #17,941
  • Mar 7, 2015 3:21am Mar 7, 2015 3:21am
mixed bag

the Comms already positioned for a drop, but Sentiment is not in or near an extreme position. Furthermore has deteriorated a bit
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  • #17,942
  • Mar 7, 2015 3:22am Mar 7, 2015 3:22am
chance high for a continuation of drop, mainly due to sentiment data
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  • #17,943
  • Mar 7, 2015 4:24am Mar 7, 2015 4:24am
Quoting infinitus
chance high for a continuation of drop, mainly due to sentiment data {image}
Ye good spotted there. That quick up swing on specs going long is warning. Technicalls on daily also confirm we should go lower.
  • #17,944
  • Mar 7, 2015 4:33am Mar 7, 2015 4:33am
EW on EU

long and short term count


03.07.2015 EURUSD long term count and short term count
  • #17,945
  • Mar 7, 2015 5:11am Mar 7, 2015 5:11am
03.07.2015 GBPUSD short term count


enjoy
  • #17,946
  • Mar 7, 2015 5:21am Mar 7, 2015 5:21am
03.07.2015 EURJPY short term count


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  • #17,947
  • Mar 7, 2015 5:23am Mar 7, 2015 5:23am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Ye good spotted there. That quick up swing on specs going long is warning. Technicalls on daily also confirm we should go lower.

Hi Jan,

any suggestions on EURGBP?

Am still short, but try to pseudo-hedge a bit. Now over weekend completely neutral. So far -1.8% all in all.
  • #17,948
  • Mar 7, 2015 5:47am Mar 7, 2015 5:47am
03.07.2015 USDCHF long and short term count


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  • #17,949
  • Mar 7, 2015 6:21am Mar 7, 2015 6:21am
03.07.2015 AUDUSD short term count and long term count


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  • #17,950
  • Mar 7, 2015 7:13am Mar 7, 2015 7:13am
03.07.2015 USDJPY short term count


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  • #17,951
  • Mar 7, 2015 7:33am Mar 7, 2015 7:33am
03.07.2015 Gold long term count


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  • #17,952
  • Mar 7, 2015 9:42am Mar 7, 2015 9:42am
03.07.2015 EURUSD long term alternative count


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As promised, here is the alternative view, which fibs much better:



wave blue 1:

red 3 is 294.4% of red 1 (this is common target in light of Harmonic Eliott Wave)

red 4 retraced a few pips short to the 33.30% retracement (this is common target in Harmonic Elliott Wave) of wave 3

red 4 retraced a bit more than the 23.60% retracement of the whole decline

wave 5 is 138.2% of wave 4, which is very common target for a wave 5


wave blue 2:

wave 2 retraced 14.6% of the whole decline

wave 2 is a small double-zigzag, which only lasted 10 days



wave blue 3:

wave blue 3 would be equal wave blue 1 @ 1.0964, and it would be 1.618 x wave 1 @ 0.9958

red 2 retraced 90% of red 1, which is common retracement in Harmonic Elliott Wave

red 3 hit nearly 423.6% expansion of red 1 (shy of 15 pips roughly)

the triangle red 4 retraced towards 30% of wave 3 with the A wave, and the latter part of the triangle banged its head multiple times against the 23.60% retracement

remember: wave blue 3 would be 1.618 x wave blue 1 @ 0.958

wave red 5 would now be 61.8% of red 3 @ 1.0482

wave red 5 would be 100% of red 3 @ 0.9923



wave blue 4:

since wave blue 2 only retraced 14.6% in only short 10 days, in a simple double X, expect wave 4 to drag out over a prolonged time in a very complex structure. Common target woould be the 1.13-1.16 area, roughly.



wave blue 5:

hard to say, but the 0.82 to 0.93ooks nice so far.

After wave blue 4 is finished, wave blue 5 can be specified better


8hTF
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  • #17,953
  • Edited 10:33am Mar 7, 2015 9:50am | Edited 10:33am
Quoting infinitus
EW on EU long and short term count 03.07.2015 EURUSD long term count and short term count
Dear Infinitus, let me question:

If now, Monday or following days, It goes over 1.0860 area should we consider that the count is wrong or the wave 3 red is over? It's very easy that on Mondays there are profit taken movements.

I am speaking about short term account.The main, not the alternative. It should go to 1.0800 or 0780.Wave 3 green. But if it comes back up over 1.0860 (more or less) . Would you invalidate this short term account?
  • #17,954
  • Mar 7, 2015 10:27am Mar 7, 2015 10:27am
03.07.2015 EURUSD alternative long term count 2

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I have researched a lot of impulsive waves in Forex. Many of them end on a high momentum wave.

So I decided to deliver a count, which has an extended wave 5 with very much momentum.
The count preserves the good fib-relationships of the alternative count I showed beforehand.

In the extended wave blue 5:
wave red 3 is 276.4% of wave 1, which is common Harmonic Elliott Wave target
wave red 2 retraced 38.2% of red 1
the triangle red 4 retraced towards 30% of wave 3 with the A wave, and the latter part of the triangle banged its head multiple times against the 23.60% retracement
the ongoing wave red 5 is now 200% of red 4 @1.0844, which is a common target. At 300% it will be 1.0554
@1.0455 wave red 5 will be 200% of red 3

Both alternative counts I do like much more now than my main count. I think I should abandon my main count
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  • #17,955
  • Mar 7, 2015 10:37am Mar 7, 2015 10:37am
Quoting infinitus
03.07.2015 EURUSD alternative long term count 2 enjoy I have researched a lot of impulsive waves in Forex. Many of them end on a high momentum wave. So I decided to deliver a count, which has an extended wave 5 with very much momentum. The count preserves the good fib-relationships of the alternative count I showed beforehand. In the extended wave blue 5: wave red 3 is 276.4% of wave 1, which is common Harmonic Elliott Wave target wave red 2 retraced...
1.0455?
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #17,956
  • Mar 7, 2015 10:37am Mar 7, 2015 10:37am
all three counts in comparison:


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  • #17,957
  • Mar 7, 2015 11:05am Mar 7, 2015 11:05am
Quoting infinitus
all three counts in comparison: {image} {image} {image}

the difference between the main count and the alternative count is not the price target. Both should result in the same. It is simply an example of good and bad fib-relationships.


Keep in mind: wave 5 may extend to the downside in the main count. It has low probability, since wave 3 is already much extended.

In the alternative count 1 we have much room to the downside.

In the alternative count 2 wave blue 5 is extended. Since red 3 of it is extended, it is unlikely that the red 5 will extend, too.


When we are in the scenario of alternative count 2, there will be most likely a violent snap back reaction at the end of it. The most common target of the upmove would then be the upper part of the wave red 2 of blue 5. That would be in the 1.25 region.


The advantage of the alternative count 1 for a bearish scenario is, that we can drop without much of retracements easily towards the 0.82 support shelf.
That may be the best scenario for the case, that the FED will hike rates early.

In the alternative count 2 we have only limited room to the downside left. After that we need a breather. That would surly be the case, when the FED can not hike rates as early as expected.

Which one of both may unfold I simply can not say at the moment. My feeling is, that everybody and his dog is eyeing the parity and take it as a given.

With that said, the trade is already since a longer time very crowded. All what we need to see is that some die-hard longs give upand turn short. Maybe this will be the case around 1.07-1.05-1.02
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  • #17,958
  • Mar 7, 2015 11:29am Mar 7, 2015 11:29am
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} Dear Infinitus, let me question: If now, Monday or following days, It goes over 1.0860 area should we consider that the count is wrong or the wave 3 red is over? It's very easy that on Mondays there are profit taken movements. I am speaking about short term account.The main, not the alternative. It should go to 1.0800 or 0780.Wave 3 green. But if it comes back up over 1.0860 (more or less) . Would you invalidate this short term account?

the wave red 3 is somewhat hard to count. I think, most likely we will see a further drop before up in wave red 4. Ideally would be 1.0720. Yes, we can see some push up on Monday, but I expect it to be very smallish. Maybe at Interbank market price is driven down on Sunday already, and we open with a "retail" gap on Sunday night. Keep all in mind, that markets do open at 21 GMT on D´Sunday due to TLS


Right now the light green wave 3 is equal to the light green wave 3 as can be seen on the chart
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  • #17,959
  • Mar 7, 2015 11:46am Mar 7, 2015 11:46am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} the wave red 3 is somewhat hard to count. I think, most likely we will see a further drop before up in wave red 4. Ideally would be 1.0720. Yes, we can see some push up on Monday, but I expect it to be very smallish. Maybe at Interbank market price is driven down on Sunday already, and we open with a "retail" gap on Sunday night. Keep all in mind, that markets do open at 21 GMT on DSunday due to TLS Right now the light green wave 3 is equal to the light green wave 3 as can be seen on the chart {image}
Yes I am openminded to one retailers GAP on Monday-opening. I always ask you about short term count because my scalper mentality doesn't allow me to think in long periods than one day, sometimes hours. Each time I think I did a scalp short in GU at 55.3x.. I am triyng to mix two point of views an close 3/4 parts of the entry when I will think it's a big winner. But it's hard when you have been taught in one way. I am thinking were can this drop go on Monday. In order to long, and when short it again. Thanks , Infinitus.

When I hear this song, I do not the reason, I can't stand in my chair. For the weekend.

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  • #17,960
  • Mar 7, 2015 11:55am Mar 7, 2015 11:55am
EU S/R levels

pink is weekly/monthly major support

blue is the resistance which has build on the way down


when we break 1.0760 meaningfully, there is not much in the way until 0.961


12h TF

any opinion?
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