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  • #7,541
  • Mar 6, 2015 9:02am Mar 6, 2015 9:02am
Quoting The Fool
I won't bore you with news about Brazil - you can google as well as I can - but things have gone from bad to worse
Yup, Brazil market is total FUBAR.
What do you think about US Markets after this NFP?
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,542
  • Mar 6, 2015 9:10am Mar 6, 2015 9:10am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Yup, Brazil market is total FUBAR. What do you think about US Markets after this NFP?
I not surprised to see US indices drop on strong NFP, but I also won't be surprised to see them trend up next week. We'll see, though - as UST yields rise there are at least some yield options. Strong USD also may be a factor, as will the start of ECB QE. Sounds like a mix for increased volatility. I am trying to fill a Mar EFA $65.5/$66 bull call vertical for $0.07...

Also looking at SPY put spreads for Mar expiry...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,543
  • Mar 6, 2015 9:15am Mar 6, 2015 9:15am
trying, once again ....to fill Jul/Oct USO $28 call calendar....$0.10 debit....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,544
  • Mar 6, 2015 9:20am Mar 6, 2015 9:20am
If I were a daredevil like Cecil I might buy $109 QQQ calls for $0.06 - Q's might rally into the close...???
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,545
  • Mar 6, 2015 9:24am Mar 6, 2015 9:24am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Yep, I was afraid of this, TLT dropped too much, but I got out for $0.14 net credit, about 1/2 maxP
TLT dropped like a turd, down $2.50 - a big move for TLT - if I had not gotten in front of the screen at the open to close out my diagonal I would be $250 underwater, out on the death slide. I had a $0.20 GTC on it, but it gapped under it b4 the open. Frikkin diagonal spreads...so much drama...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-03-06_tlt.png Size: 64 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,546
  • Mar 6, 2015 9:30am Mar 6, 2015 9:30am
Quoting The Fool
If I were a daredevil like Cecil I might buy $109 QQQ calls for $0.06 - Q's might rally into the close...???
I did it
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,547
  • Mar 6, 2015 10:03am Mar 6, 2015 10:03am
hm...

Lew to Congress: US hits debt limit on March 16, needs to be raised ASAP

every year same song
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,548
  • Mar 6, 2015 10:32am Mar 6, 2015 10:32am
Wouldn't mind heavy selling into the close, considering my IWM lotto ticket...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,549
  • Mar 6, 2015 11:08am Mar 6, 2015 11:08am
Quoting The Fool
If I were a daredevil like Cecil I might buy $109 QQQ calls for $0.06 - Q's might rally into the close...???
Not sure, Big traders buying Puts today. Put volume up by 144%
it might fall to 50 day average of 105

http://www.lulegacy.com/2015/03/04/s...ies-1-etf-qqq/
  • #7,550
  • Mar 6, 2015 11:48am Mar 6, 2015 11:48am
Quoting charron
{quote} Not sure, Big traders buying Puts today. Put volume up by 144% it might fall to 50 day average of 105 http://www.lulegacy.com/2015/03/04/s...ies-1-etf-qqq/
yeah when I bought QQQ calls I was watching /NQ looking like it wanted to bounce. Gonna be a total loss
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,551
  • Mar 6, 2015 11:58am Mar 6, 2015 11:58am
Quoting StrayDog
Wouldn't mind heavy selling into the close, considering my IWM lotto ticket...
that was this:

Quoting StrayDog
A long shot, but I did it anyway... IWM Mar6 Bear Put Spreads 120.5/120 for $0.05... not risking much, just 10 of those mofos.
Managed to close 6 out of 10 for $0.06... a scratch. Trade was a loser from the start, all is on this Friday move, who the f... knows when will buy the dippers appear. Looking to close remaining 4 spreads.

Idea behind the trade was that IWM had tested $120 3 times before and after that it was down. Then it made a breakout above, and I expected at least a retest of $120 level, that is why I choose those strikes. Hope to see one day a successful lotto ticket with a 10x max payback...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,552
  • Mar 6, 2015 12:12pm Mar 6, 2015 12:12pm
Quoting StrayDog
......... who the f... knows when will buy the dippers appear..
Well I have an idea about SPX... if it goes trough 2066/68... then ---> that could be just awesome ... increased volatility, finally something to trade, richer options premium, and so on...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SPX-BTFD-2066-68.PNG Size: 258 KB


Fibo 38.2 retracement at same level like previous resistance, which is support now...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,553
  • Mar 6, 2015 12:22pm Mar 6, 2015 12:22pm
I'm just happy to see SPY dip hard, my Mar $210/$211 call diagonals are sitting right at break even. They were all bought for about $0.01 credit, so I'm not losing much if SPY drops....and I am well away from the dread death slide. If SPY flatlines or rises thru the next couple weeks, I will start to take nice profits...what a relief....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,554
  • Mar 6, 2015 2:22pm Mar 6, 2015 2:22pm
Quoting The Fool
I am trying to fill a Mar EFA $65.5/$66 bull call vertical for $0.07... Also looking at SPY put spreads for Mar expiry...
Filled at $0.07, coulda got $0.05. No fill on long dated USO calendar. I guess the bastards just don't want me to trade it....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,555
  • Mar 6, 2015 2:27pm Mar 6, 2015 2:27pm
Am I too early to BTFD?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,556
  • Mar 6, 2015 2:33pm Mar 6, 2015 2:33pm
Quoting The Fool
Am I too early to BTFD?
Depends what dip are you buying ...

About SnP dip... BTFD-ers ain't doing much so far... ES on 2068/69 again... and it is Friday, almost end of trading day and all... that helps also.
Refreshing NOT TO SEE agressive dip buying... Could we see a continuation of the move? I mean down move...
I just did one small scalp nothing else... waiting for a dip bellow support to engage more, next week... Rate hike fear strikes again.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,557
  • Mar 6, 2015 2:43pm Mar 6, 2015 2:43pm
yeah, I have done enough damage for today. SPY spreads have taken a big sigh of relief & I'm richer on paper, we'll see what next week brings.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,558
  • Mar 6, 2015 8:53pm Mar 6, 2015 8:53pm
prior SnP dips have at least pushed down below the 100sma, maybe we can get that next week? Many ways to set up short...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-03-06_SPY.png Size: 135 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-03SPY1.png Size: 78 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,559
  • Mar 6, 2015 9:05pm Mar 6, 2015 9:05pm
I'm gonna go out on a limb and guess SnP won't bounce next week? ,,,if a SPY call credit spread looks good go Super Bear and fund a more probable put debit spread, like $205/$204.5
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-03-06_spy3.png Size: 65 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,560
  • Edited 9:53pm Mar 6, 2015 9:37pm | Edited 9:53pm
maybe we can get a downtrend thru the March FOMC (3/18) ....maybe we get solid 2 weeks of financial press talking heads yakking about the Fed removing "patient" from next FOMC statement....? Pick a cheap otm Mar put spread and fund it w/ fotm call credit spread...?

....a 20-lot Mar $212.5/$213.5 short SPY call vertical funds the 50-lot debit put spread shown below, m/l...

edit: actually, look at big volume on the $200 strike to get a cheap vertical spread - Mar $200.5/$200 mid is $0.06....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-03-06_spy5.png Size: 62 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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