Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 272 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #5,421
  • Mar 4, 2015 6:29am Mar 4, 2015 6:29am
Rivertrader, i hope that this is a better explanation.
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  • #5,422
  • Mar 4, 2015 10:58am Mar 4, 2015 10:58am
im begginer on this system this anlayze is ok ?
gbpaud h4
​
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  • #5,423
  • Mar 4, 2015 11:03am Mar 4, 2015 11:03am
pound yen h4
 
 
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  • #5,424
  • Mar 4, 2015 3:25pm Mar 4, 2015 3:25pm
Quoting randolf
im begginer on this system this anlayze is ok ? gbpaud h4 ​ {image}
IMHO, your images are nonsense at best.

You really should, ougth to, must, have to read the first post 'carefully' and watch some videos: https://www.youtube.com/user/supplya...ndforex/videos
Trade what you see..
  • #5,425
  • Mar 4, 2015 4:29pm Mar 4, 2015 4:29pm
Quoting randolf
im begginer on this system this anlayze is ok ? gbpaud h4 ​ {image}
Quoting Chawl
{quote} IMHO, your images are nonsense at best. You really should, ougth to, must, have to read the first post 'carefully' and watch some videos: https://www.youtube.com/user/supplya...ndforex/videos
Hello Randolf,

As another trader mentioned in a previous post, your analysis is saying something. You just added H4 chart, drew what seem to be zones and you didn't follow any rule, didn't add multiple timeframe analysis, didn't add any trendline, you didn't explain what you wanted to say or do with GBP/AUD. Like he said, you should read Post #1 and study the documentation and videos before you upload any charts. I just don't understand the purpose of uploading that chart, because you don't follow the rules and you don't do any analysis.

Hope you understand my position and other readers.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,426
  • Mar 5, 2015 1:44am Mar 5, 2015 1:44am
@alfonso kindly clear this

http://s24.postimg.org/fz38p117p/screenshot_559.png
  • #5,427
  • Mar 5, 2015 4:07am Mar 5, 2015 4:07am
Quoting rickyfx
@alfonso kindly clear this {image}
Good question, I spent quite a while on this yesterday. My conclusion was, that it is a valid demand - 3:1 imbalance and it also broke the descending TL. My chart looks just like yours, so in my opinion, we have a new daily downtrend, since we can draw a downTL and one opposing demand was broken.
  • #5,428
  • Mar 5, 2015 6:31pm Mar 5, 2015 6:31pm
Quoting rickyfx
@alfonso kindly clear this {image}
Quoting Carousel46
{quote} Good question, I spent quite a while on this yesterday. My conclusion was, that it is a valid demand - 3:1 imbalance and it also broke the descending TL. My chart looks just like yours, so in my opinion, we have a new daily downtrend, since we can draw a downTL and one opposing demand was broken.
As per the rules, there is a downtrend on EUR/JPY, you are absolutely right!

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,429
  • Mar 6, 2015 8:04pm Mar 6, 2015 8:04pm
hi Mr Alfonso and mates,

Im Long the NZDJPY at a fresh demand zone.

Montly: up trend and going through a supply zone tha has already been tested several times.
Daily: up trend, the odds enhancer here is that the supply zone is resting in a flip zone and the demand level is fresh.
H4: here is where i spot my entry level.

The only thing that worries me is that there is a engulfing pattern on Daily but demand is in control.
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passion and discipline
  • #5,430
  • Mar 7, 2015 1:56am Mar 7, 2015 1:56am
Quoting rohule
hi Mr Alfonso and mates, Im Long the NZDJPY at a fresh demand zone. Montly: up trend and going through a supply zone tha has already been tested several times. Daily: up trend, the odds enhancer here is that the supply zone is resting in a flip zone and the demand level is fresh. H4: here is where i spot my entry level. The only thing that worries me is that there is a engulfing pattern on Daily but demand is in control. {image} {image} {image}
After what happened and inability to break higher, long is not the way to go. I had a loss on that one before that long trying to get a rally to the opposing zone, it was not a big loss since I was aggressive with the SL, but a loss. Now all yen pairs are doing a similar thing, I'm short on several of them like EUR/JPY. That bearish engulf and slow sumo rally to the left means there are not too many buyers.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,431
  • Mar 7, 2015 2:27am Mar 7, 2015 2:27am
Quoting rohule
hi Mr Alfonso and mates, Im Long the NZDJPY at a fresh demand zone. Montly: up trend and going through a supply zone tha has already been tested several times. Daily: up trend, the odds enhancer here is that the supply zone is resting in a flip zone and the demand level is fresh. H4: here is where i spot my entry level. The only thing that worries me is that there is a engulfing pattern on Daily but demand is in control. {image} {image} {image}
MN1 is very high in curve at nearly 90%. Why do you long?
  • #5,432
  • Mar 7, 2015 3:56am Mar 7, 2015 3:56am
Quoting DoHung
{quote} MN1 is very high in curve at nearly 90%. Why do you long?
I normally take longs until I get a loss under certain scenarios! This was one of those cases! I had 2:1 at some moment, moved my SL a bit higher than entry and I was kicked, my personal trading plan allows me to take those longs and move SL aggressively when it's that high.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,433
  • Mar 8, 2015 7:19am Mar 8, 2015 7:19am
Hi Alfonso,

A quick question regarding the validity of a Daily Demand zone in GBPUSD that was taken out. I am confused since we have a few rules mixed up I guess.

We see that this Daily level breaks the Weekly trendline and also creates a higher high so daily trend is up. However, it does not take out any Daily+ supply levels. So is this a valid level actually. I know it's against your own rules, but I'm talking only whether it is considered Demand, not whether it is tradable, high/low odds, etc...

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Another thing that I also have been observing for quite some time is the reasons for price to move out of a range. In this case the exit from the zone was caused because of the press-conference of the BoE, and thus the exit was not technical, but rather purely fundamental. And I have noticed that these levels are not the best to trade, since the reason for the move is a bit different, and there's a chance that no orders are left there, but it was all hype during that moment.

Do you have any observations regarding these kind of movements away from levels?

Thanks,

Boris
  • #5,434
  • Mar 9, 2015 9:07am Mar 9, 2015 9:07am
Quoting PacnyTuH0
Hi Alfonso, A quick question regarding the validity of a Daily Demand zone in GBPUSD that was taken out. I am confused since we have a few rules mixed up I guess. We see that this Daily level breaks the Weekly trendline and also creates a higher high so daily trend is up. However, it does not take out any Daily+ supply levels. So is this a valid level actually. I know it's against your own rules, but I'm talking only whether it is considered Demand, not whether it is tradable, high/low odds, etc... {image} Another thing that I also have been observing...
Boris, you broke one important rule on GBP/USD H4 demand zone. Let me explain what you did and you tell me if that H4 demand was or not high odds.

  1. Monthly down
  2. Weekly down
  3. Weekly and Daily supply in control

What do you think is normally going to happen if the Monthly and Weekly is down and a bigger timeframe like Weekly and D1 is in control?
You took a H4 demand against all those scenarios against you? Was that long high or low odds?

As a rule of thumb, Weekly wins over Daily and lower timeframes, H4 over 15 minutes, Monthly over Weekly, etc.

Hope my comments helped.
Cheers,
Alfonso

Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,435
  • Mar 9, 2015 9:17am Mar 9, 2015 9:17am
Thanks Alfonso,

I understand I messed up completely and I learned my lesson. My question was whether this is a Daily Demand zone. I know we should not trade it. Could you please clarify that as I'm not sure it meets all criteria to be even considered Demand - so this makes my mistake even worse.

Regards
  • #5,436
  • Mar 9, 2015 9:22am Mar 9, 2015 9:22am
Quoting PacnyTuH0
Thanks Alfonso, I understand I messed up completely and I learned my lesson. My question was whether this is a Daily Demand zone. I know we should not trade it. Could you please clarify that as I'm not sure it meets all criteria to be even considered Demand - so this makes my mistake even worse. Regards
In a Monthly downtrend, weekly without you as well, you need always to wait for confirmation for shorts because you would be going counter-trend. Counter-trend is more dangerous. That H4 demand zone you mentioned would have been valid if a bigger timeframe supply imbalance had not been in control. Longs only in confirmation, be it daily H4 or any other timeframe.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,437
  • Mar 10, 2015 3:35am Mar 10, 2015 3:35am
Hi Alfonso,

First of thanks for your effort of keeping this thread alive. During the thread you advice us to do a lot of backtesting, prefered with forex tester. You telling us to do it months as you have did and maybe still do. My question is now, where do you get your CSV files from. The one that come with Forex Tester (Forexite) are limited, especially if you do not want to test any Yen crosses. Pls can you advice me and point me towards a site where I can download other pairs with a relative long history because I'm interested in the higher tf trading (daily with monthly as a curve).

Thanks in advance,

Dutch
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  • #5,438
  • Mar 10, 2015 10:26am Mar 10, 2015 10:26am
Quoting Dutch-Trader
Hi Alfonso, First of thanks for your effort of keeping this thread alive. During the thread you advice us to do a lot of backtesting, prefered with forex tester. You telling us to do it months as you have did and maybe still do. My question is now, where do you get your CSV files from. The one that come with Forex Tester (Forexite) are limited, especially if you do not want to test any Yen crosses. Pls can you advice me and point me towards a site where I can download other pairs with a relative long history because I'm interested in the higher...
Hey Dutch,

Thanks for your email, doing my best to support/help those that ask any question about the supply and demand rules laid out on Post #1.

Regarding the history to testing on Forex Tester 2, I always used the limited Forexite candles, it's all about trading what you see on your charts. In reality, I will be trading on Metatrader Broker X with Daily candle close at xx:xx PM, another MT boker at xx:xx +1 PM, etc. Candle closes will be different on each broker, so just trade what you see.

However, if you want to have good CSV history file, you can import your broker's 1 minute history file downloadinig it from Metatrader options and export the .hst file. Forex Tester now supports reading any .hst file, before it didn't work. But there is a new version, not officially released I believe, version 2.9.7 that allows you to import any 1 minute file from any Metatrader broker.

You can download it from here: http://www.forextester.com/files/temp/setuprus.exe

Below the pictures to follow to install this setup file on your computer. It's in russian, but in order to switch it to english, take a look at the last screenshot.

You know the funny thing about testing rules? That almost nobody, and I mean almost nobody, will have the patience to test any set of rules consistently every day for months. Result? We know that already.

Hope you find this information useful and helps you test these supply and demand rules or any other rules you would like to test.
Cheers,
Alfonso

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,439
  • Mar 10, 2015 1:08pm Mar 10, 2015 1:08pm
Hi again Alfonso,

I have a question regarding the situation with GBP/NZD. I am not sure I drew the zones correctly on any of the timeframes.

On the monthly we have an uptrend with the trendline broken.
https://charts.mql5.com/7/226/gbpnzd...karoll-jsc.png

On the weekly we have a downtrend with the trendline broken
https://charts.mql5.com/7/226/gbpnzd...karoll-jsc.png

Now, on the daily I get a confused. I drew 2 trendlines since I don't know whether the lower and steeper TL is better. We have a reaction from the daily Demand level and it seems no fresh daily supply levels above, and the area is very congested.
https://charts.mql5.com/7/226/gbpnzd...karoll-jsc.png

How would you interpret the situation with this pair since I'm not sure what to do with all these broken trendlines although it seems that long is the way to go.

Thanks,

Boris
  • #5,440
  • Mar 11, 2015 4:49am Mar 11, 2015 4:49am
Quoting PacnyTuH0
Hi again Alfonso, I have a question regarding the situation with GBP/NZD. I am not sure I drew the zones correctly on any of the timeframes. On the monthly we have an uptrend with the trendline broken. {image} On the weekly we have a downtrend with the trendline broken {image} Now, on the daily I get a confused. I drew 2 trendlines since I don't know whether the lower and steeper TL is better. We have a reaction from the daily Demand level and it seems no fresh daily supply levels above, and the area is very congested. {image} How would you interpret...
All fine with the levels my friend. Just a note on the weekly chart.

Used-up WK SZ on GBP/NZD, the one supply level in controlk now, brand new WK DZ lower where you painted it. Bulish bigger picture trend against a used up WK SZ, it will most likely be taken out soon.


Hope it makes sense,
Alfonso

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