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ALSI 40 Index - Trading the South African All Share Index

  • #121
  • Mar 4, 2015 2:13am Mar 4, 2015 2:13am
FAIR COMMENT!
Carpe Vinum.
  • #122
  • Mar 4, 2015 2:16am Mar 4, 2015 2:16am
DAX:
(Remember I am 15m delayed so you might already be able to tell me I am an idiot)
Beautiful long entry at 240.
Heavy line of resistance at 260 (so you could be in for a nice 20 pips) and watch this level. If it breaks through, I'll update the levels.
In life you get 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
  • #123
  • Mar 4, 2015 2:17am Mar 4, 2015 2:17am
DAX:
75% Long level at 285. I would be VERY pleased if it gets this high...
In life you get 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
  • #124
  • Mar 4, 2015 2:21am Mar 4, 2015 2:21am
Quoting HedgePiglet
DAX: (Remember I am 15m delayed so you might already be able to tell me I am an idiot) Beautiful long entry at 240. Heavy line of resistance at 260 (so you could be in for a nice 20 pips) and watch this level. If it breaks through, I'll update the levels.
Ha, this has got to be the MOST bizarre way I have ever analysed a chart. You are seeing it live and I am 15m behind. Can anyone tell me if my LONG at 240 would have given us anything yet?
AND HAS IT HELD UP AT 260 or burst through??
In life you get 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
  • #125
  • Mar 4, 2015 2:30am Mar 4, 2015 2:30am
DAX:
Quoting HedgePiglet
{quote} Ha, this has got to be the MOST bizarre way I have ever analysed a chart. You are seeing it live and I am 15m behind. Can anyone tell me if my LONG at 240 would have given us anything yet? AND HAS IT HELD UP AT 260 or burst through??
Ok so far we have been on the money, its given us the 20 pips we expected as a minimum. My charts tell me the upper 75% level can be reached IF we see it break above the 260 level...nobody should be losing any money on this chart today.
In life you get 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
  • #126
  • Mar 4, 2015 2:32am Mar 4, 2015 2:32am
Yes you tagged 260.... now for 285 - 260 may take something to beat as things stand right now.
But nice call. Long form 240 was the trade.
Carpe Vinum.
  • #127
  • Mar 4, 2015 2:33am Mar 4, 2015 2:33am
Quoting ZA Rhino
Yes you tagged 260.... now for 285 - 260 may take something to beat as things stand right now. But nice call. Long form 240 was the trade.
Ha ha thanks, the suspense has been giving me a tight chest!
Levels to watch: 260 and 275. Our Christmas gift level is 285...and its possible on this move...everyone has moved their stops if you are in it.
I am 15m behind you and I am seeing heavy signs of a fail around the 260 mark. At this point in a live trade, I would bank the 20, or scale my position if you are in multiple lots.
In life you get 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
  • #128
  • Mar 4, 2015 2:44am Mar 4, 2015 2:44am
Quoting HedgePiglet
{quote} Ha ha thanks, the suspense has been giving me a tight chest! Levels to watch: 260 and 275. Our Christmas gift level is 285...and its possible on this move...everyone has moved their stops if you are in it. I am 15m behind you and I am seeing heavy signs of a fail around the 260 mark. At this point in a live trade, I would bank the 20, or scale my position if you are in multiple lots.
Ugh, didn't quite tag that 275 level...you might have seen as much as a 30 pip trade but its looking weaker and weaker.

Everyone should have banked your +180 on the ALSI.
In life you get 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
  • #129
  • Mar 4, 2015 2:50am Mar 4, 2015 2:50am
DAX: If you are absolutely mercenary you should lock your stop at 245 giving you a +5. This 260 level is a cow.
In life you get 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
  • #130
  • Mar 4, 2015 3:09am Mar 4, 2015 3:09am
DAX: Theres the 245. I would have closed/scaled at 260 as mentioned for the 20 but at least you will have banked something. MA Cross has called a colour change which means we MIGHT be seeing a short but its still a little distance off.

For those interested in the practical outcome of trading this way, I have not had a losing day since November last year. Granted, I have had some days (like today) where I have ended on +12 but I don't recall the last losing day. Makes it easier to get out of bed.

EDIT: Where thanks to Rhino I missed a 180 pip trade...
In life you get 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
  • #131
  • Mar 4, 2015 3:10am Mar 4, 2015 3:10am
ALSI: Nice deep retracement now on the ALSI, good news as we might see another trade out of this gal today...
In life you get 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
  • #132
  • Mar 4, 2015 3:20am Mar 4, 2015 3:20am
DAX: Market profile on DAX says price needs to drop below 236 before we see a short. This suggests we will see ranging/languishing around this level for a little while yet. Even no signals are signals!
In life you get 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
  • #133
  • Mar 4, 2015 3:30am Mar 4, 2015 3:30am
DAX: Ok, the GMMA's have turned over. No clear space between fast and slow groups so not exactly place to make a call. However, we are seeing a bearish shape and the MA is giving us short bars. Not enough to have me put my money on it, but since it didn't go up, and its held around this 245 level, odds are it may come down.

The 275 level I called about an hour ago is now in play, and is influencing the price levels we see. In more confirmation of a pending short, this level is actually creating this new ceiling around 245.

I'd be keeping an eye on the 236/235 level and if it moves through this, put in for a short. Or, if you are already short based on the MA colour change, you're 'safe' to hold it for a bit...
In life you get 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
  • #134
  • Mar 4, 2015 3:46am Mar 4, 2015 3:46am
DAX: New level coming in at 255. This continues to form an upper limit for this current activity (if thats the right term for it clearly being out to lunch).
This means the band of range has now narrowed to a pretty tight band...upper 255 and lower 235. DISCLAIMER. I'm watching a chart with a 15m delay and just for fun we are seeing how close my assessments come.

If it breaks up though 255 and you have colour bar support, GET IN!

I note on the other thread a handful of folks who went short have climbed out, bit silly really as we haven't seen the move yet.
ZA_Rhino, how are my predications holding out so far?
In life you get 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
  • #135
  • Mar 4, 2015 3:49am Mar 4, 2015 3:49am
Ok colour bar change now for the long. Look for it to climb above the magical 255 and we should be good for the next move up.
In life you get 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
  • #136
  • Mar 4, 2015 3:50am Mar 4, 2015 3:50am
Tee hee, I know that you need to watch your chart! Something coming up....
Carpe Vinum.
  • #137
  • Mar 4, 2015 3:53am Mar 4, 2015 3:53am
Quoting ZA Rhino
Tee hee, I know that you need to watch your chart! Something coming up....
Ha ha this is cruel!! 255 people. If it breaks up you're good for the long. I'm trying desperately to see 15m into the future!!
At the risk of this all sounding a bit foolish for those just joining us, I trade a set system on the ALSI each day and I was dared earlier today to make some calls on the DAX. I would have called a 70+ move first thing, easy though as we know the chart had already moved.
I followed this with a long call for around 20 pips, which most should have banked.

Despite this, I am confident we should be seeing a long opportunity happening any moment now (i mean 15m later than you see it) and it will be fun to see how close I came.
In life you get 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
  • #138
  • Mar 4, 2015 3:55am Mar 4, 2015 3:55am
DAX: Ok, that 260 is now the line to watch... (This suggests I am thinking in the right direction) Price should reach it and hold/flop around it. If it breaks up, stay in your long boys and girls!
In life you get 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
  • #139
  • Mar 4, 2015 3:57am Mar 4, 2015 3:57am
HA! I am now seeing 271 as the new ceiling, in 15m time! How am I doing Rhino!!?
In life you get 3 types of people, those who can count and those who can't.
  • #140
  • Mar 4, 2015 3:58am Mar 4, 2015 3:58am
Quoting HedgePiglet
{quote} I'm trying desperately to see 15m into the future!! .
I feel like I get to go "back to future"
Carpe Vinum.
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