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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #52,081
  • Mar 3, 2015 11:18pm Mar 3, 2015 11:18pm
Quoting fti
Apologies -no mentor, or course, or literiture can give anyone the holy grail to the secrets of success in trading in the markets. -"and no one, sells the goose that lays golden eggs, probably the eggs, but never the goose" Nevertheless, I will humbly attempt. Since the late 70s and into the millinium. Many "engineers" have made public, their inventions of reading probabilities into Technical Indicators. Many Technical Analysis Gurus came to the forefront to sell their research findings. To name a few, The Grand daddy being Charles Dow and his Dow...
I always read that
we don't predict, we only ride
  • #52,082
  • Mar 3, 2015 11:41pm Mar 3, 2015 11:41pm
scouting G/U and U/C watching some others....

just can not get a feel for E/U lately, i do not even like looking at the chart ...bias maybe??

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #52,083
  • Mar 3, 2015 11:56pm Mar 3, 2015 11:56pm
Quoting phil13
scouting G/U and U/C watching some others.... just can not get a feel for E/U lately, i do not even like looking at the chart ...bias maybe?? regards Phil.

Hi morning... bias does creep in so need to be careful.


Regards
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,084
  • Mar 4, 2015 12:03am Mar 4, 2015 12:03am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Hi morning... bias does creep in so need to be careful. Regards
Hi Alexandria

good morning my friend.

thank you for the reminder , luckily for me my bias is to stay away and not directional so not playing with the sword i can not cut myself there.

or lose a limb to the crocs .

it will pass... all things do. until then i will keep away.

regards

Phil.

Attached Image
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #52,085
  • Mar 4, 2015 12:35am Mar 4, 2015 12:35am
market jerks in opposite direction so removed all for now, +few pips .

regroup-

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #52,086
  • Mar 4, 2015 12:37am Mar 4, 2015 12:37am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi Alexandria good morning my friend. thank you for the reminder , luckily for me my bias is to stay away and not directional so not playing with the sword i can not cut myself there. or lose a limb to the crocs . it will pass... all things do. until then i will keep away. regards Phil. {image}
Hi... know oneself.. very strong

Using RoK long scout eur this morning for feel (simples) closed him silly me duck hunting then short eurgbp for rescue...why?....RoK and went with trend.

There is so much to learn and it comes slowly slowly slowly when ready.

Thanks as always to FTI (words are not enough) and Phil, Jacque and others for all their help in this thread.

Regards
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,087
  • Mar 4, 2015 12:44am Mar 4, 2015 12:44am
looks like it was an EU court decision caused the jerk.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #52,088
  • Mar 4, 2015 12:56am Mar 4, 2015 12:56am
Quoting phil13
looks like it was an EU court decision caused the jerk. regards Phil.
Yes it was nice of them to help me at just the right time but my rescue was already complete for my eur scout before news and always grateful for their extra help.

I just did eur long as stupid stupid General killed own poor scout as not thinking at all .... but got rid of him as I knew it was wrong as soon as I did it (tiny loss)... but why did I do it(??) pre London like that (duh).... rescue had to go eur/gbp as it was with trend (well that was my thinking) flipping euro would have been ok but did not like up move. Somehow I could feel sth was going on with RoK... the bears were strong from the start. Phew there is so much going on and lots to learn through experience.



Regards
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,089
  • Mar 4, 2015 12:58am Mar 4, 2015 12:58am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi Gro again thank you for taking the time to explain my friend . have saved to my computer, i will study/think about it as i am sure there is more there than just the relationships i can see on the surface. maybe over the weekend when i have few drinks . regards Phil.
I'm sorry but the picture was a mistake. It's image is corrected.
  • #52,090
  • Mar 4, 2015 1:04am Mar 4, 2015 1:04am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Yes it was nice of them to help me at just the right time but my rescue was already complete for my eur scout before news and always grateful for their extra help. I just did eur long as stupid stupid General killed own poor scout as not thinking at all .... but got rid of him as I knew it was wrong as soon as I did it (tiny loss)... but why did I do it(??) pre London like that (duh).... rescue had to go eur/gbp as it was with trend (well that was my thinking) flipping euro would have been ok but did not like up move. Somehow I could feel...
Hi Alexandria

if it feels against you in my opinion/experience you are better off to regroup find why and start again, sometimes it can move a long way against you while you are trying to find out what made the market jerk, of course if the jerk is in your direction it is all good .

back in U/C and A/U now that i know what was going on. news soon on gbp.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #52,091
  • Mar 4, 2015 1:07am Mar 4, 2015 1:07am
Quoting Gro
{quote} I'm sorry but the picture was a mistake. It's image is corrected.
Hi Gro

thanks have re-downloaded.

i did wonder why there where 2x meticulous.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #52,092
  • Mar 4, 2015 1:14am Mar 4, 2015 1:14am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi Alexandria if it feels against you in my opinion/experience you are better off to regroup find why and start again, sometimes it can move a long way against you while you are trying to find out what made the market jerk, of course if the jerk is in your direction it is all good . back in U/C and A/U now that i know what was going on. news soon on gbp. regards Phil.

Thank you for advice as always. I was already in pre news release.

I did kill scout fast as I knew it was really really really stupid..... somehow mind not in gear (and forgot time (really went out of my head)) and so closed it at once.... FTI says we need to do the necessary and then when I did it I worried that maybe it was wrong thing to do... do not like killing my man just like that. So thank you for your comments on regrouping as they will stay with me and help me. Would have been scary if news was against me....although the numbers should make it not so scary.

Regards
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,093
  • Edited 1:36am Mar 4, 2015 1:24am | Edited 1:36am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Thank you for advice as always. I was already in pre news release. I did kill scout fast as I knew it was really really really stupid..... somehow mind not in gear (and forgot time (really went out of my head)) and so closed it at once.... FTI says we need to do the necessary and then when I did it I worried that maybe it was wrong thing to do... do not like killing my man just like that. So thank you for your comments on regrouping as they will stay with me and help me. Would have been scary if news was against me....although the...
Hi Alexandria

you did not hurt your book that is all that matters.

scouts are expendable, you have seen a few posts of mine where i just kill them if i am/suspect i am in wrong direction, a non moving position or my bad timing, it happens, i accept i can not pick the perfect entries and they (scouts) allow for my errors (most of the time).

regards

Phil.

EDIT.... removed A/U scout at b/e.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #52,094
  • Mar 4, 2015 1:40am Mar 4, 2015 1:40am
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  • #52,095
  • Mar 4, 2015 1:42am Mar 4, 2015 1:42am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi Alexandria you did not hurt your book that is all that matters. scouts are expendable, you have seen a few posts of mine where i just kill them if i am/suspect i am in wrong direction, a non moving position or my bad timing, it happens, i accept i can not pick the perfect entries and they (scouts) allow for my errors (most of the time). regards Phil. EDIT.... removed A/U scout at b/e.

Thank you.. I understand your A/U position now thanks for explanation.


Regards
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,096
  • Mar 4, 2015 2:03am Mar 4, 2015 2:03am
Quoting fti
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=saFnC7WFIuk
Thank you FTI for all your hard work with us.


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check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,097
  • Mar 4, 2015 2:26am Mar 4, 2015 2:26am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Thank you FTI for all your hard work with us. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vqXAYj6ha8o

Inserted Video


regards
  • #52,098
  • Mar 4, 2015 2:54am Mar 4, 2015 2:54am
Quoting fti
{quote} https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tXTEkvUQfrQ regards

Thank you..... the tempo changes are VIP and subtle before they hit you... it comes on slowly and unexpectedly..... there is a lot to think about here... slowly.....walking faster..... running....dancing .
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,099
  • Mar 4, 2015 3:00am Mar 4, 2015 3:00am
Please guys has anyone tried DailyFX on Demand service.
  • #52,100
  • Mar 4, 2015 3:34am Mar 4, 2015 3:34am
the lunch time warrior .....u/c.

regards

Phil.

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-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
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