ALSI 40 Index - Trading the South African All Share Index

Short setup just arrived right on the lower level. The Guppy is very compressed so while its not scientific, it could be a big move down. Remember, price RIGHT NOW is almost exactly at the 50% level of its Average Daily Range. We KNOW that a chart WILL reach 75% of its ADR well over 80% of the time. In other words, we are sitting on an opportunity to bank another 140+ pips in a single move if it breaks these lines. Signs are it will be a short, but it must break this ranging zone.
So there are the 75% levels and there is the ranging band. Getting the start of short signals on the correct side of the POC so the bias is short...lets see...

Would love to watch you live trade.

Thats 1! Thanks MrI.

Ok, the upper limit has tightened to 46,830. Again, this means we will get a setup sooner if it breaks up, or if price falls from this level...my bias is still on the short but I have no desire to risk my money on it until the setup is clear...

While we wait for the setup (which is looking ever strong to be a short, price just broke the lower level and we have the classic pull-back on the correct side of the POC) I have another proposition for anyone out there.

Since a large part of my calculations are based on VWAP, an aggregate feed tends to be less accurate. SO: If you have a favourite index you would like me to trade with you, I shall be happy to go through the numbers. Drop me a line with your index wishlist and we can take a look at it together.

AS I TYPED this I got the short break as expected. Text book. My target is now circa 150 pips to the 75% ADR and I am now using a Traders ATR for support...

+30 and counting. I can now treat this as a Break Even trade at worst. My first target remains the 75% ADR @ 46,638.

+50. ATR gives me a minimum of +19 so far.
KEEP AN EYE ON 46,650!!! This is an area of keen support and is above my 75% ADR target...

+61 with an ATR minimum of +30

+77 with a minimum +45 on ATR...this is a good looking trade!

Once the trade is done, would you post an image of entry and exit?

ORANGE line is my entry. ATR is the yellow. you're seeing it LIVE. I am DELIBERATELY NOT editing my posts to you can see I called this all well in advance.
Price broke below the lower level (blue dotted) which confirmed the short bias I named in 3 posts. Retraced (GMMA) and I'm in. Now I am in profit and managing my exit. My target is the 75% level and Im using an ATR to guide my sense of it.

I'm out! +43 on the ATR. Great little trade. Disappointed it didn't get to my target but I'm not unhappy.

Ha ha, ok I see the next setup already. Anyone want to join me? (Watch that 46,830!!)

The point I am trying to make is MOST indexes give us very clear signals of how they will behave. I want to try to impress it upon anyone reading this that it isn't guesswork, I don't take the bone out of my nose before I start.

Quite keen to hear if anyone wants to look at an index or two or join me live? No pressure, its meant to be fun.

I'm LONG 46,808. Price switched to the correct side of the POC, and I am now watching that magical 46,830 level.

Price just broke that level...

+68 and now I'm eyeing the 75% long level. Its RIGHT on the levels I drew at 1:04pm, so if it continues through, I'm going to get my target.

...and we are through... +82 and counting

So you all can see I'm not making it up...

Here is my LIVE chart, with my entry shown where the ORANGE lines intersect. The time was 13:54, see my post shortly after at 14:00 above. Note how price touched the levels I drew DURING my short trade (my previous trade) at 46,830 and note now price touched it like a hot plate!

Current trade on +79.


I really want to see price reach 46,947 (75% long ADR) but as always, I am happy with any + trade and my ATR says I will bank another minimum of circa 40 pips.

AAAAAAARGH!! I'm out for +61.