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Every system can work

  • #81
  • Mar 2, 2015 1:28am Mar 2, 2015 1:28am
Quoting Big_A
{quote} I am the advocate of a rational trading more and not the pure gambling as your suggested way of trading seems to me to be. The statistical model shows that there is a slight chance of success if you try to catch some pips on the rebound of some "significant" price levels. There is a good chance, i.e. that EU would bounce off every 30 pips away from daily open (or so). However, such a blindfolded set off of pending orders (especially for all pairs) are nothing less than some sophisticated gambling (and yes, I do know, that it is true that...

Hi Big A, thanks for your reply.

Quote
look to the price action at your chosen significant levels. Say, for intraday trading use 15 min TF to decide if price is going to bounce off of your level. Use very tight stop loss and try to take at least 2x profit than your SL.

do you mind to show an example of what you mean by the statement? I hope to improve the current system as you have pointed out.
  • #82
  • Mar 2, 2015 2:01am Mar 2, 2015 2:01am
Quoting belief
{quote} Hi Big A, thanks for your reply. {quote} do you mind to show an example of what you mean by the statement? I hope to improve the current system as you have pointed out.
Notice the price action around "significant" +30 pips from daily open level. On the 15 min TF it is easy to eyeball price rejection and later inside bar (small bearish candle) one could have as an entry bar on the break of the low. SL would be set just above rejected bull candle. Approximate SL and TP ratio here is 1:2 which is fine.

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For my fallen angels.
  • #83
  • Mar 2, 2015 6:33am Mar 2, 2015 6:33am
Quoting Big_A
{quote} Really, huh?
This system originally didn't work. Why? Because of me. Simple. After hours of watching the charts it's starting to work no. Referring to the thread title, all systems -can - work. Lak
  • #84
  • Mar 2, 2015 6:56am Mar 2, 2015 6:56am
Quoting lakhan
{quote} This system originally didn't work. Why? Because of me. Simple. After hours of watching the charts it's starting to work no. Referring to the thread title, all systems -can - work. Lak
Surely, every system can work.
For my fallen angels.
  • #85
  • Mar 2, 2015 7:46am Mar 2, 2015 7:46am
Quoting Big_A
{quote} Surely, every system can work.
Agreed.
Got to give it enough time.
And be patient.

How long have you been trading Big A ?
Currently settled with EMA and stochastics combo set on 4H, entry on the breakout. I would usually cruise daily charts and filter out potential trades. I have been trying to keep my DD as little as I can and fine tune my entries. Do you think my current combo is good enough for what I'm aiming at ?

Pi
...
  • #86
  • Mar 2, 2015 8:33am Mar 2, 2015 8:33am
Quoting Piquant
{quote} Agreed. Got to give it enough time. And be patient. How long have you been trading Big A ? Currently settled with EMA and stochastics combo set on 4H, entry on the breakout. I would usually cruise daily charts and filter out potential trades. I have been trying to keep my DD as little as I can and fine tune my entries. Do you think my current combo is good enough for what I'm aiming at ? Pi
I started trading (stocks) in 2002, then numerous attempts to burn down my money succeeded repeatedly. Around 2008 I was introduced to institutional trader and FX.

It's a very rough sketch you have given on your trading style. I do not like stochastics personally though I don't say it couldn't be traded especially if you use them to confirm trend direction and for nothing else (or have very special way to exploit OS/OB marks of stochs). Now, you obviously know that there is no such thing as 4 hr time frame (as it depends of the beginning of the 4 hr period that is different for different local times brokers refer to) and this one is somewhat artificial one between 1H and 1D TFs.
DD in most cases is a myth and keeping it as low as possible usually also means profits as low as possible. Perhaps you had in mind SL and that is good then to keep that very tight unless you trade without leverage and manage enough money to comprise a small bank.
As with regards to EMAs - yes, it is the good way (though not necessarily necessary ) to stay in line with market's trends.
I wish you very best in your trading.

A.
For my fallen angels.
  • #87
  • Mar 2, 2015 6:21pm Mar 2, 2015 6:21pm
This is how my chart usually looks like

Palladium 30M.
I do follow COT report. Palladium gave a buy signal just recently and it really did rally along with gold finding support.
The trader who developed this combo prefers to enter from 4H charts, however since CFDs precious metals are traded at much higher values than currencies I thought I'd zoom into lower TFs 30M chart to be exact.

I was eyeing on palladium, not that I was looking to trade but you know what I mean ;-). I'm still new to CFDs. It turns out palladium broke out right there, been wanting to go higher for weeks now. And it finally did. I usually like to get in when price breaks out, out of its range , at a new low or high. Because I think that must imply something. And I want to be in early. By the way I navigate from daily chart first and make my way down. There were many times where I went in at a breakout, only to find out price bouncing back and hitting my SLs not soon after. So I've been trying to figure out a way to avoid this from happening.

And recently, Ive started using stochastics and EMA combo. I would enter when stochastics all the way down or up , one way or the other and when trigger line crosses the main. And 20EMA crosses below or above 50EMA. This way, I think it improves the probability of my trades surviving longer - I'm trying to get the timing right. And I avoid going long when the price is overbought and vice versa. I hope that makes sense.

Compared to you, I'm a noob still. Although I've studied quite a bit. I know screen time is essential. So what you say about my system ?
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  • #88
  • Mar 2, 2015 8:36pm Mar 2, 2015 8:36pm
Quoting Big_A
For all those HG seekers and more advanced traders I'd like to present small gift. With this indicator alone you can build decent set of rules to trade profitably. Happy NY2015, A. {file}
Use on 2 t/f, say H1 to establish direction of trade & M5 to enter off a pullback? Trade like Brian did in post 37.
Good Trading
  • #89
  • Mar 3, 2015 1:25am Mar 3, 2015 1:25am
Quoting Piquant
This way, I think it improves the probability of my trades surviving longer - I'm trying to get the timing right.
This is exactly what it is - enter the market at the right time. I think your way of trading is OK and it could really make nice profits.
However, if you'd take out stochs your charts would be less cluttered with non- essential information. All the indicators are just recalculated functions of a price. So when you have stochs on your charts you unconsciously (or maybe deliberately) look for a confirmation /trigger and that will not help you to be precise on your entries with the regards to the time.
Now, look at the following pics and tell yourself frankly do you still need stochs? Please believe me - the less non - significant information you have on your charts the bigger chances are your decision making process will be shorter and more straighter and so the profits bigger.
I would also suggest switching from stochs to simple trend lines as you say you would like to trade breakouts (again, look at pics below).
There is also one thing here - I somehow see you are relying too much on the past (history). COT reports are one week old and they tell you what happened in the past. Unless you are investor I don't see how it could benefit you as a trader (speculator).
P.S. I also would suggest you leave CFDs (on the 4H TF, all the instruments lose the impact of the short term disturbances and become more technical analysis friendly, besides you would not pay your broker spread) unless you have deep knowledge on the specific instrument. And if that is the case then switch to futures directly.

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For my fallen angels.
  • #90
  • Mar 3, 2015 4:56am Mar 3, 2015 4:56am
I agree with you, it is. But personally I use strategy Optimizer tool oftener others, 2 times a week. Results are awesome
  • #91
  • Mar 3, 2015 9:22pm Mar 3, 2015 9:22pm
B,

Yeah I see what you mean. But I feel good about this combo, I'll keep them for a while. These tools always evolve and change, for the better *wishful thinking* . As for now I don't see this as a hindrance but a guide.

As for COT, I follow 6months and 3 years COT index. It does foretell potential corrections and such unlike the weekly net position changes.

How do you go about timing your entries ?
...
  • #92
  • Mar 4, 2015 1:43am Mar 4, 2015 1:43am
Quoting Piquant
B, Yeah I see what you mean. ... How do you go about timing your entries ?
For the longer time positions I use 1H TF with 200 EMA and London open (LO) price levels. If price is above 200 EMA and price goes above LO, and today's LO is above yesterday LO then I go long after 1 hour bearish candle (given on the entry day we have news heavy day). Then if price goes against me, I will average down (yes, ) until price goes beneath 200 EMA and two days in a row LO is below 200 EMA. I also have 2xATR (5 D) SL just in case.

For ultra short time scalping I try to exploit traders emotions and algos mechanical way of managing trades (basically, I go opposite direction after sudden price movement) with extremely tight SL and PT at least 5x bigger (say if EU SL 3 pips, then PT is 15 pips).
For my fallen angels.
  • #93
  • Last Post: Mar 7, 2015 5:25am Mar 7, 2015 5:25am
If you have any questions, send me PM. I'm not going to respond to this thread anymore.

Good luck,
A.
For my fallen angels.
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