I wanted to start my own thread since I will be trading a method that is based off of Robinho's thread, but has a slight twist to it. Rather than clutter up his thread I've created a new one. The original thread by Robinho can be found here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=505135
We are looking for a convergence of recently closed candles on the Monthly, Weekly, & Daily timeframes (explained on post 784 of Robinho's thread). Once we have this we then drill down to the hourly time frame to confirm our entry. This is where my approach differs. Robinho's method says any Mth>Wk>D convergence is a valid setup, which usually results in several trades if you are looking at 20+ pairs. My aim is to narrow it down to only the most high probability trades.
Once we are past that first test, we then go to the hourly timeframe. Using the MACD (12,26,9) we then confirm that the MACD is above the signal line (for LONGS) or below the signal line (for SHORTS). Trades are taken after the close of a daily candle that matches the weekly and monthly candle.
Robinho's method was setting a 10 pip TP and a 100 pip SL. This was also a problem for me as it means that you have to win 91% of your trades to break-even. However, keeping the TP somewhat low does result in a greater win% so I am looking to try 20 pip TP and 100 pip SL. This brings the breakeven down to 84% needed. Still not ideal, but I think it's an ok place to start given that this is a high win-rate method.
Examples of a valid and invalid entry are below. Indicator showing Mthly, Wkly, Daily candles also attached (not necessary, but helpful)
We are looking for a convergence of recently closed candles on the Monthly, Weekly, & Daily timeframes (explained on post 784 of Robinho's thread). Once we have this we then drill down to the hourly time frame to confirm our entry. This is where my approach differs. Robinho's method says any Mth>Wk>D convergence is a valid setup, which usually results in several trades if you are looking at 20+ pairs. My aim is to narrow it down to only the most high probability trades.
Once we are past that first test, we then go to the hourly timeframe. Using the MACD (12,26,9) we then confirm that the MACD is above the signal line (for LONGS) or below the signal line (for SHORTS). Trades are taken after the close of a daily candle that matches the weekly and monthly candle.
Robinho's method was setting a 10 pip TP and a 100 pip SL. This was also a problem for me as it means that you have to win 91% of your trades to break-even. However, keeping the TP somewhat low does result in a greater win% so I am looking to try 20 pip TP and 100 pip SL. This brings the breakeven down to 84% needed. Still not ideal, but I think it's an ok place to start given that this is a high win-rate method.
Examples of a valid and invalid entry are below. Indicator showing Mthly, Wkly, Daily candles also attached (not necessary, but helpful)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Attached File(s)
