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Rags to Riches in 10 or 20 Trades - Simplicity at its finest

  • #1,741
  • Feb 27, 2015 3:29pm Feb 27, 2015 3:29pm
I won't deny I'm an asshole, if you don't like it then just don't say anything stupid


have a good weekend, this was Monday/tuesday

it was a good week (went 1.0475)

expecting true bottom for weekly reversal on AUDNZD in March...
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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #1,742
  • Feb 27, 2015 3:39pm Feb 27, 2015 3:39pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
The worlds biggest hedge fund is starting an AI trading unit in March. Machines taking over. I've created an algo that does 20% a year with a 5% stop loss since 2012. It needs a lot of capital to run it though. Minimum 1million.
Hi R2R,

Promise, I'm not a troll :-)
Just curious though, why would you need $1 million minimum to run a program if you're using a 5% stop loss. Seems to me as long as the position size is adjusted to account size, you could hold small positions in almost every currency pair and still not be anywhere close to $1 million.
Unless you want the position size so small(relative to account size) that you never get close to the 5% SL but then would be pretty difficult to reach the 20% return?
  • #1,743
  • Feb 27, 2015 3:43pm Feb 27, 2015 3:43pm
Quoting replaced
{quote} WTH are you just trolling/joking or are you for real. You're the one making very large assumptions. My assumptions are based on reality. To think that there is a 65% win rate of getting 100 pips right over 50 pips wrong is so out there. GL with your thinking. If I can't teach you a lesson, the market will do it for me.

I have been doing this for over 5 years and life is good. The depth of your analysis is that winning 100 is 2x as large as losing 50 so it is twice as likely not to be achieved. That makes no sense. Then you do some basic math to arrive at 66% and 33%. That is not analysis. Analysis is looking over the past, developing a theory and then forward testing that theory through a well laid out hypothesis.

I can tell you that the numbers I provided are what I have historically achieved. I can tell you that I have several MC simulators that based upon my proven historical results can demonstrate that certain things are achievable.

I can also tell you that I am a member of Mensa and that I rank in the top 1% mathematically worldwide.

Finally, I did not attack you but simply stated that you presented a scenario with no supporting evidence. I was completely open to a discussion with respect to your findings, evidence and assumptions. You decided to reply with an ad hominen attack which just provided further support to your lack of evidence.
  • #1,744
  • Feb 27, 2015 3:56pm Feb 27, 2015 3:56pm
Quoting flyer415
{quote} I can also tell you that I am a member of Mensa and that I rank in the top 1% mathematically worldwide. Finally, I did not attack you but simply stated that you presented a scenario with no supporting evidence. I was completely open to a discussion with respect to your findings, evidence and assumptions. You decided to reply with an ad hominen attack which just provided further support to your lack of evidence.

I was called a "math genius" in high school but pretty sure I wouldn't qualify for either of those 2 lists :-)
  • #1,745
  • Feb 27, 2015 9:59pm Feb 27, 2015 9:59pm
Great thread, subscribed... Any chance you'r from Germany bro?
One Punch, One Kill
  • #1,746
  • Feb 28, 2015 12:16am Feb 28, 2015 12:16am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} I don't risk all my money. I'm just showing what's possible. I only have ~$150k. 2 years? Really? Most people pull their profits back, as I do. I can only do 3 in a row without wanting to take profit. some people have huge balls, and can scale higher. apparently, i only have medium sized testicles. I want to start a fund for depth of market. Even though I don't need DoM to find entries. Only big money needs DoM, because liquidity actually matters to their trade decisions. It does not to us because some will always take the other side with...
I'm having the same argument with this guy in a thread he started titled I have figured out why people lose in the market. he is trying to challenge me with roulette and I keep explaining the 0 and 00 and the fixed odds which do not exist in forex. I've explained how you can lift your bet here if it's losing, add to it if it's winning, etc. the guy just doesn't get it. But if you need a good laugh, check out his thread.
  • #1,747
  • Feb 28, 2015 4:15am Feb 28, 2015 4:15am
Seems this thread is live then ever

Yeap!!!
Don't give up
  • #1,748
  • Feb 28, 2015 8:03am Feb 28, 2015 8:03am
Interesting thought. I forgot that I want to do this after I get my winning statistic when I'm still newbie.

My winning probability is about 67%. The problem is that the RR is just 1:1. It's hard to get RR of 1:2. Most of the time, the max RR I can get is 1:1.8 and that is one trade per week.

Not impossible, but maybe will be taking quite a long time. Let's say i can get 1:2 RR per week with 66% winning ratio. Then 9 trade would need 27 weeks, if there are such trade per week. On the actual trade maybe I'll get it at 30~40 weeks.

I don't know if I can patiently wait for only that kind of setup per week. But it is kinda rewarding. As long as slippage is super tight (SL executed at exactly or near the preferred SL number) and things like Black Swan does not happen. Well, if Black Swan happens and you're trapped, then with SL of 50% at 100 pip at progress of capital on $5,000 (23 lot / 2.3 mil) and SL slippage of 15000 pip, you'll end up having $370,000.... as debts...

Ouch! which make us back to cruel reality that we can't get an easy instant rag to riches.

Though, one can try to do this and maybe get instant rich...

Btw, how's the initial poster doing? Has he done this strat yet?
Be the market
  • #1,749
  • Feb 28, 2015 8:24am Feb 28, 2015 8:24am
Quoting alvseek
My winning probability is about 67%. The problem is that the RR is just 1:1
You don't need anything more to get rich.

Be consistent with these stats ... patiently ... and you will do it.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #1,750
  • Feb 28, 2015 10:18am Feb 28, 2015 10:18am
Quoting FerruFx
{quote} You don't need anything more to get rich. Be consistent with these stats ... patiently ... and you will do it.
Woow, somehow those words are cheering me up.

Thanks btw.
Be the market
  • #1,751
  • Feb 28, 2015 10:27am Feb 28, 2015 10:27am
Quoting alvseek
{quote} Woow, somehow those words are cheering me up. Thanks btw.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #1,752
  • Feb 28, 2015 12:49pm Feb 28, 2015 12:49pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} Blocked him that chart would work fantastically in a casino in the market, our PATIENCE for the ENTRY and PATIENCE for the EXIT create the odds. we create the odds
Good job, he was not contributing anything useful anyway, clearly he has no clue about markets, he just knows maths...

Keep going mate, you got it right

Tip: Another long term play/goldmine is long DAX short Dow Jones, EU QE is here and will be for more than a year, look at the difference of these 2 indexes since the EU QE was announced a month ago.
  • #1,753
  • Mar 1, 2015 1:18am Mar 1, 2015 1:18am
Hey guys.
Subcribed to this thread.

speaking from a year of live trading experience, I say it can be done. Especially if you've got yourself in a strong trend. However as soon as trending market starts to dwindle to a range, or even worse you got yourself in a choppy situation. Things will fall out pretty fast.

been reading the thread since page one, I can't remember who it was but momentum is crucial i agree with him 100% especially with this approach. Without momentum you're going to blow up pretty fast even if you've got edge. Getting the timing right over and over again is whats been baffling me the most.

enough the rant. I'll be following this thread. And I might attempt to give it a go. But will take slightly conservative approach.

it would be great if we shared how we determined momentum, the timing. Anyone ??

or would you prefer pms ? count me in
...
  • #1,754
  • Mar 1, 2015 12:37pm Mar 1, 2015 12:37pm
Quoting alvseek
Interesting thought. I forgot that I want to do this after I get my winning statistic when I'm still newbie. My winning probability is about 67%. The problem is that the RR is just 1:1. It's hard to get RR of 1:2. Most of the time, the max RR I can get is 1:1.8 and that is one trade per week. Not impossible, but maybe will be taking quite a long time. Let's say i can get 1:2 RR per week with 66% winning ratio. Then 9 trade would need 27 weeks, if there are such trade per week. On the actual trade maybe I'll get it at 30~40 weeks. I don't know if...
If you are 67% winning at 1:1 and you have good MM then you will never have to work again once you reach a certain level.
  • #1,755
  • Mar 10, 2015 4:36am Mar 10, 2015 4:36am
Quoting srt
{quote} Hi R2R, Promise, I'm not a troll :-) Just curious though, why would you need $1 million minimum to run a program if you're using a 5% stop loss. Seems to me as long as the position size is adjusted to account size, you could hold small positions in almost every currency pair and still not be anywhere close to $1 million. Unless you want the position size so small(relative to account size) that you never get close to the 5% SL but then would be pretty difficult to reach the 20% return?
Because the EA 5x multiplies, so it gets up to 100 lots+'pretty quickly


0.01 lot, 0.05 lot, 0.25 lot, 1.25 lot, 6.25 lot, 30 lot, 150 lot etc etc

doing this, the cost basis always is within a few pips of the fresh entry. it only takes a few pips to breakeven

this EA begins it's grid entries after a spike 10 pips above bollinger band 55 std deviation 3

doesnt take very many entries per year...


extremly busy outside of trading, I will try to post more after Mid-March



To take on that much in lot size you need a million+
It it makes it's most money when it enters it's huge lot size, very close to the 5% stop loss. then it doesn't hit it, but reverses to hit TP. i still need more testing but over 3 years there has only been less than 50 entries taken. rarely does the market spike into large standard dev BBands without retracing 10-20 pips before continuing breakout, or a full reversal signal

I am not close to 1 million but will be there in a few years based on past % performance. I am not a hobby trader.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #1,756
  • Mar 10, 2015 7:39am Mar 10, 2015 7:39am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} Because the EA 5x multiplies, so it gets up to 100 lots+'pretty quickly 0.01 lot, 0.05 lot, 0.25 lot, 1.25 lot, 6.25 lot, 30 lot, 150 lot etc etc doing this, the cost basis always is within a few pips of the fresh entry. it only takes a few pips to breakeven this EA begins it's grid entries after a spike 10 pips above bollinger band 55 std deviation 3 doesnt take very many entries per year... extremly busy outside of trading, I will try to post more after Mid-March To take on that much in lot size you need a million+ It it makes it's most...
Hi R2R,

Thanks for the explanation. That answers it pretty well. Doubling a penny everyday for a month gets over $5 million so doesn't take much size to get some serious leverage in a short period of time.
  • #1,757
  • Mar 19, 2015 8:41am Mar 19, 2015 8:41am
Hit step 3, around 550%....got burned hard on the 465 pip EU rally yesterday. Back to step 1.

also scorched 6% of my regular trading acct
  • #1,758
  • Mar 19, 2015 9:27am Mar 19, 2015 9:27am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
Anyone who say trading is gambling hasn't been in the industry long enough. Nobody who does this for income every year says they are gambling. If you think Trading is gambling, than you should think that being the house at the casino is also gambling. It's not though. They always win over time. Math always wins over time.
Hey Rags, Love your thread.

In regards to "gambling". Trading is gambling. It meets every definition of the word.
Attached Image


The house ALWAYS is gambling. They just have the odds stacked in their favor. If they were not gambling they would make no money and go bankrupt and every one at the table would always win. The have to gamble in order to make money as gambling is there business.

Just because they have the math on their side that tells them by participating in the casino games taking the other side of the gamblers bets, they will always win in the long run(this does not mean they will win every flip, if that were the case, it wouldnt be gambling and no one would "gamble" as no one would ever win), does not mean they are some how escaping all of the definitions of gambling. They are gambling. They are just really really really good at it.

sis.
  • #1,759
  • Mar 19, 2015 9:55am Mar 19, 2015 9:55am
Statistically wining position that has 50% downside and 100% upside is 25%. If you can do it more then 25% of a time then you are a winner, just use proper money management. The problem is that in Forex - you have 50% chances of winning a trade (minus margin).
  • #1,760
  • Mar 19, 2015 10:52am Mar 19, 2015 10:52am
Quoting agilequant
Statistically wining position that has 50% downside and 100% upside is 25%. If you can do it more then 25% of a time then you are a winner, just use proper money management. The problem is that in Forex - you have 50% chances of winning a trade (minus margin).
If this were the case- most would break even. that is not the case
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