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Simple, Powerful and Effective Price Action Trading Strategies

  • #441
  • Feb 23, 2015 5:56am Feb 23, 2015 5:56am
Quoting sepramfx
{quote} I really appreciate your observation but don't you think the the second purpule zone below the pin bar you drew is a turning point? The MA as well provides the confluence what do you think?
Well, it's quite possible of course. The thing is, price has already tested that zone before firstly with a pinbar and secondly with a tramline formation neither of which provided the desired upside momentum. You could say that both had too much upper wick showing of course, so it's all making me a bit cautious.
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  • #442
  • Feb 23, 2015 7:17am Feb 23, 2015 7:17am
Quoting JackAntigua
{quote} Well, it's quite possible of course. The thing is, price has already tested that zone before firstly with a pinbar and secondly with a tramline formation neither of which provided the desired upside momentum. You could say that both had too much upper wick showing of course, so it's all making me a bit cautious. {image}
I see you are vast in SUPPLY and DEMAND I tried to learn it but I wasn't getting it. It looks simple to learn but along the way it got complicated for me. May be be I was just missing it all
  • #443
  • Feb 23, 2015 10:10pm Feb 23, 2015 10:10pm
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The signal is playing out, and even offered the retrace entry. Very nice, clean price action - actually playing ball for a Monday trading session.

If the market breaks these recent highs this session, we could see the next move into higher highs here.

www.theforexguy.com


Quote
I see you are vast in SUPPLY and DEMAND I tried to learn it but I wasn't getting it

I think supply and demand are just fancy buzz words for 'support and resistance'.

Supply and demand comes from the commodity sector, where it's actually a tangible product that is effected by actual real supply and demand, affected by seasons, production, and even natural disasters.

Let's be honest, there is basically an unlimited amount of currency available - its all about what people are willing to pay for it. Forex is a giant auction system - the ebay for currency exchange.
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #444
  • Feb 24, 2015 5:42am Feb 24, 2015 5:42am
Quoting DnBPriceAct
{image} The signal is playing out, and even offered the retrace entry. Very nice, clean price action - actually playing ball for a Monday trading session. If the market breaks these recent highs this session, we could see the next move into higher highs here. www.theforexguy.com {quote} I think supply and demand are just fancy buzz words for 'support and resistance'. Supply and demand comes from the commodity sector, where it's actually a tangible product that is effected by actual real supply...
YEAH BOSS! GJ is really putting smile on my face. What you said about SD I think you are right, may be thats more reason why I am not getting the SD thing. Looking back at AUD/USD its like the yesterday's bearish momentum to the down side was very strong. For those taking the bullish counter trend don't you think its time for them to close if they have not done so. With the look of things price may fall back to the weekly support at around 0.7703 and may be further based on the price action at the support level. What do you think BOSS?
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  • #445
  • Feb 24, 2015 5:58am Feb 24, 2015 5:58am
Quoting sepramfx
{quote} YEAH BOSS! GJ is really putting smile on my face. What you said about SD I think you are right, may be thats more reason why I am not getting the SD thing. Looking back at AUD/USD its like the yesterday's bearish momentum to the down side was very strong. For those taking the bullish counter trend don't you think its time for them to close if they have not done so. With the look of things price may fall back to the weekly support at around 0.7703 and may be further based on the price action at the support level. What do you think BOSS? {image}...
Although I don't think yesterday's price action is enough to SELL. I think it will be prudent of me if a stay on the side line because of the hindrance at the weekly support level. but if price closed below it, then I will watch out for a support turn resistance + PA. What do you think any improvement in the way I view the market?
  • #446
  • Feb 24, 2015 6:13am Feb 24, 2015 6:13am
GBP/USD caught my attention but I don't know what the PRICE ACTION wizards have to say about it. From my observation I think the bullish price rejection candle may move up to somewhere around 1.57_ _
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  • #447
  • Feb 24, 2015 10:04pm Feb 24, 2015 10:04pm
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Ever since the SNB removed their peg and made the CHF a free floating market again, we can start to look for trading opportunities here.

The EURCHF has developed into a bullish uptrend after the big event - as we can see higher highs and higher lows being printing with the upward momentum.

This market just recently broke resistance as it moved into fresh highs, and as been hovering above the old level as it now acts as support.

A double inside day pattern has formed - one of my favorite breakout setups. These guys can really blow up when they let go.

Since the train is moving upwards here, I am only looking for bullish breakouts. If price breaches the high, we could see an explosive breakout here.

www.theforexguy.com
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #448
  • Feb 25, 2015 4:19am Feb 25, 2015 4:19am
Quote
GBP/USD caught my attention but I don't know what the PRICE ACTION wizards have to say about it. From my observation I think the bullish price rejection candle may move up to somewhere around 1.57_ _

Yes this one was our chart of the day for Tuesday's session.

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In this week's commentary video, I spoke about the candle which formed on friday - a weak looking rejection candle, that didn't look like a good signal.

The location was good but the rejection was small. Monday's price action however really got things fired up for this week. The level was tested again and we got a much stronger reaction.

A second rejection candle formed with a much stronger anatomy. The close is higher than the open price and is larger in range.

We've also got a swing level here, the mean value and existing uptrending motion (hh's & hl's). This is a text-book perfect setup. But just because it's text book perfect doesn't give it a 100% chance of success, so please don't neglect your money management.
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #449
  • Feb 25, 2015 9:01pm Feb 25, 2015 9:01pm
I just wrote a new article after getting a lot of questions about support and resistance.

I used one of the charts you posted Jack - I hope you don't mind.


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New Article: 4 SUPPORT & RESISTANCE MISTAKES THAT SCREW YOUR CHARTS UP
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #450
  • Feb 26, 2015 8:16pm Feb 26, 2015 8:16pm
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EURAUD just keeps pumping us with sell signals here.

www.theforexguy.com
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #451
  • Edited 3:41am Feb 27, 2015 2:49am | Edited 3:41am
Quoting DnBPriceAct
I just wrote a new article after getting a lot of questions about support and resistance. I used one of the charts you posted Jack - I hope you don't mind. {image} New Article: 4 SUPPORT & RESISTANCE MISTAKES THAT SCREW YOUR CHARTS UP
Interesting article, I was happy you used my chart to illustrate your point.

It is interesting to note that price is struggling at precisely the level I illustrated on my chart, the one that you rather poo-poo'd. Will it finally go on to break through, who knows?

My point is this. Of course, you will always have levels on charts, equally you will have areas of clear space. To me, it makes sense to try to trade into wide open spaces.
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  • #452
  • Feb 27, 2015 4:20am Feb 27, 2015 4:20am
EURUSD had finally broken out of its wedge (symmetric triangle). If there is no any political or serious fundamental hindrance, those could nose dive to as low as 0.91_ _ . I might be wrong though because am still learning to trade this way. Any comment positives or negatives are welcome please.
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  • #453
  • Feb 27, 2015 4:26am Feb 27, 2015 4:26am
Quoting JackAntigua
{quote} Interesting article, I was happy you used my chart to illustrate your point. It is interesting to note that price is struggling at precisely the level I illustrated on my chart, the one that you rather poo-poo'd. Will it finally go on to break through, who knows? My point is this. Of course, you will always have levels on charts, equally you will have areas of clear space. To me, it makes sense to try to trade into wide open spaces. {image}
The point I think Dale Wood is trying to make here is not to over analyze the chart by trying to look into every details which might lead to have many lines on the chart. " It is interesting to note that price is struggling at precisely the level I illustrated on my chart, the one that you rather poo-poo'd. " of course price never move in a straight line one can draw lines at any given interval and price may react at some of the lines.
  • #454
  • Feb 27, 2015 12:05pm Feb 27, 2015 12:05pm
Quoting sepramfx
EURUSD had finally broken out of its wedge (symmetric triangle). If there is no any political or serious fundamental hindrance, those could nose dive to as low as 0.91_ _ . I might be wrong though because am still learning to trade this way. Any comment positives or negatives are welcome please. {image}
I have literally the exact same chart! I wasn't short, but am looking at the fundamental reasons now. I use PA religiously, but the fact is the EURUSD pair is heavily fundamentally driven these days because of Greece. If Germany all of a sudden says "Ja!" to Greece's debt restructuring, those SL at 1.14xx will be hit instantly IMO.

If you do short, be very careful for news events. Of course, this pair could tank for the same news events that could cause the EURUSD to spike.
  • #455
  • Feb 27, 2015 9:52pm Feb 27, 2015 9:52pm
Quote
It is interesting to note that price is struggling at precisely the level I illustrated on my chart, the one that you rather poo-poo'd. Will it finally go on to break through, who knows?

My point is this. Of course, you will always have levels on charts, equally you will have areas of clear space. To me, it makes sense to try to trade into wide open spaces.

I hope you didn't take offense. It was not meant to be an insult, your chart was just a good opportunity to illustrate the point I was trying to make.

Those levels that you marked from previous are swing levels that recent price action has used to swing through. They aren't really major turning points in the market, and you say you wouldn't trade into those areas. I just think you're conditioning yourself from avoiding good trade opportunities when you think like this.

Yes, price may find some resistance here at this point, but I believe the overall uptrend will prevail here as the level will most likely only be a temporary inconvenience.

I am not putting a gun to anyone's head trying to make everyone lay their charts out the way I do - but rather just hear out my point of view and reasoning for it.

The levels you have marked are valid, but are they really the trouble areas you portray them to be to avoid pulling the trigger is really the core of the discussion.

I appreciate your input though and enjoy intellectually stimulating conversation with other traders like this. Again please don't take offense.
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #456
  • Feb 28, 2015 5:05am Feb 28, 2015 5:05am
Quoting DnBPriceAct
{quote} I hope you didn't take offense. It was not meant to be an insult, your chart was just a good opportunity to illustrate the point I was trying to make. Those levels that you marked from previous are swing levels that recent price action has used to swing through. They aren't really major turning points in the market, and you say you wouldn't trade into those areas. I just think you're conditioning yourself from avoiding good trade opportunities when you think like this. Yes, price may find some resistance here at this point, but I believe...
All cool here, I'm not offended in the slightest. It's always good to have constructive debate and one is always learning in this game.

As you say, not all levels are created equal and it is all about trying to identify the ones to take note of and ignoring the rest.

ttfn
  • #457
  • Mar 2, 2015 3:15am Mar 2, 2015 3:15am
Quoting Forexus
{quote} I have literally the exact same chart! I wasn't short, but am looking at the fundamental reasons now. I use PA religiously, but the fact is the EURUSD pair is heavily fundamentally driven these days because of Greece. If Germany all of a sudden says "Ja!" to Greece's debt restructuring, those SL at 1.14xx will be hit instantly IMO. If you do short, be very careful for news events. Of course, this pair could tank for the same news events that could cause the EURUSD to spike.
I am not good at fundamental analysis, can you give a kind of preview of the fundamental implication on EURUSD?
  • #458
  • Mar 3, 2015 10:49am Mar 3, 2015 10:49am
Quoting sepramfx
{quote} I am not good at fundamental analysis, can you give a kind of preview of the fundamental implication on EURUSD?
The Forex Factory front page is a good place to start if you want to learn about the implications of decisions. But the EURUSD IMO is a bit of a crapshoot either way. I don't want to hijack the thread as this is primarily about PA, but if you want to know more, there are a lot of good resources out there. You can PM me also!
  • #459
  • Mar 3, 2015 6:42pm Mar 3, 2015 6:42pm
Quote
The Forex Factory front page is a good place to start if you want to learn about the implications of decisions. But the EURUSD IMO is a bit of a crapshoot either way. I don't want to hijack the thread as this is primarily about PA, but if you want to know more, there are a lot of good resources out there. You can PM me also!

I don't support people who trade news announcements, but aligning your trades up with fundamental events like central bank policies is not a bad idea.

I am not really following the central banks moves, I just hear the whispers from other traders - but everyone is anticipating the ECB is ready to pull the trigger on a bit QE campaign, and the FED are looking to raise interest rates. That's going very bearish for the EUR and very bullish for the USD.

But at the end of the day, I take those tip offs with a grain of salt and play the markets candle by candle.

Did anybody catch this sell trade on the EURAUD - retracement trigger got hit this week...

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You can see more about this trade here
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #460
  • Mar 4, 2015 2:29am Mar 4, 2015 2:29am
Quoting DnBPriceAct
{quote} I don't support people who trade news announcements, but aligning your trades up with fundamental events like central bank policies is not a bad idea. I am not really following the central banks moves, I just hear the whispers from other traders - but everyone is anticipating the ECB is ready to pull the trigger on a bit QE campaign, and the FED are looking to raise interest rates. That's going very bearish for the EUR and very bullish for the USD. But at the end of the day, I take those tip offs with a grain of salt and play the markets...
Interesting, 50% retracement of a bearish outside bar in a downtrend, one to add to my armoury for the future. No, unfortunately I missed it, I was bemoaning myself for missing the very nice entry a bit earlier.

ttfn
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