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Price is everything

  • #29,741
  • Feb 22, 2015 4:26pm Feb 22, 2015 4:26pm
USDZAR, swing this one.

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  • #29,742
  • Feb 22, 2015 5:38pm Feb 22, 2015 5:38pm
I wonder if this fullfill the configuration setups, AU is in a supply zone and I had already stopped at BE last friday, and trying again in the second visit to the zone. I still can not catch how looks like the engulf of the zone, but i am giving it a try.

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  • #29,743
  • Feb 23, 2015 2:07am Feb 23, 2015 2:07am
Quoting NaughtyPip
Balls on the line Long cable. Win or lose, who cares. {image}
cable stopped - usd zar goin ok
  • #29,744
  • Feb 23, 2015 3:45am Feb 23, 2015 3:45am
Quoting bigwal
Just sharing. My posting is not to show trades and be told "thats after the fact" . It is not the purpose. I woke up Friday morning bleary eyed at 6am (or there abouts), opened the platform on my mobile phone and saw the engulf low, on the return to source i hit sell and went for a shower. Last thing on my mind was to jump on PIE and let you all know how great i am!!! It is irrelevant to me trying to help the group that wish to understand more. That is not going to help you at all. Hopefully by dissecting and showing the session and how it played...
Thanks Warren,love the way you put the"story" on the chart.BTY off topic but seems to me that those who cry freedom the loudest are the first to censor those whose views don't accord with their own.Keep posting old mate.Al
  • #29,745
  • Feb 23, 2015 12:19pm Feb 23, 2015 12:19pm
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  • #29,746
  • Feb 23, 2015 12:22pm Feb 23, 2015 12:22pm
Quoting mellyfx
i am giving it a try.
manual closed before target.

I wonder if this could be an interesting zone to short cable

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I am not taking this becouse london closed 1 hour ago, did Red mention best time to trade?
  • #29,747
  • Feb 24, 2015 5:08am Feb 24, 2015 5:08am
Quoting mellyfx
{quote} manual closed before target. I wonder if this could be an interesting zone to short cable {image} I am not taking this becouse london closed 1 hour ago, did Red mention best time to trade?

What were the pros and cons of that zone?
  • #29,748
  • Feb 24, 2015 5:27am Feb 24, 2015 5:27am
Quoting NaughtyPip
{quote} What were the pros and cons of that zone?
Hello N.P.

Pro: high risk/reward ratio.
Cons: GBP is strongy going up, and the market was about to close

what do you think?
  • #29,749
  • Feb 24, 2015 6:59am Feb 24, 2015 6:59am
Quoting mellyfx
{quote} Hello N.P. Pro: high risk/reward ratio. Cons: GBP is strongy going up, and the market was about to close what do you think?
The fact that there is potentially a high reward to low risk setup has no bearing on the outcome of the trade (other than perhaps the higher the reward the less probable the trade on average)

Some basic things to consider that will increase the probability of your trade working out:

Quality of the zone?
Momentum away from the zone and did this movement overcome anything?
Approach to the zone?
Any other confluences at possible entry point?
Quality of pa in the zone?

Reading through the thread you will probably pick up on these factors. Not the be all and end all of course, there is more to it, but perhaps the more experienced traders can help you out on this one.
  • #29,750
  • Feb 26, 2015 2:44pm Feb 26, 2015 2:44pm
Quoting NaughtyPip
{quote} The fact that there is potentially a high reward to low risk setup has no bearing on the outcome of the trade (other than perhaps the higher the reward the less probable the trade on average) Some basic things to consider that will increase the probability of your trade working out: Quality of the zone? Momentum away from the zone and did this movement overcome anything? Approach to the zone? Any other confluences at possible entry point? Quality of pa in the zone? Reading through the thread you will probably pick up on these factors. Not...
thanks NP for the repply, very interesting points, and sorry for the reply delay I was out of trading for a few days. those are a lots of questions and I have a hint of some of them, but not alll, for example, how can I measure the quality of PA in the zone? wicks UP or DN, volume? or another factors maybe?
  • #29,751
  • Feb 26, 2015 2:48pm Feb 26, 2015 2:48pm
Quoting mellyfx
{quote} thanks NP for the repply, very interesting points, and sorry for the reply delay I was out of trading for a few days. those are a lots of questions and I have a hint of some of them, but not alll, for example, how can I measure the quality of PA in the zone? wicks UP or DN, volume? or another factors maybe?

Candlestick patterns; the best one I know of is the engulf. Some engulfs are better than others.
  • #29,752
  • Feb 26, 2015 2:57pm Feb 26, 2015 2:57pm
Quoting NaughtyPip
{quote} Candlestick patterns; the best one I know of is the engulf. Some engulfs are better than others.
Ah I get what you mean, once a took a H&S in m5 tf after reaching a supply zone, was so clear for me, was a good trade. Now about the engulfing patten I still can't clearly identify, especially when it involves several bars, of course is easy to find how books show involving only 2 bars.
  • #29,753
  • Edited 6:33pm Feb 26, 2015 6:01pm | Edited 6:33pm
When I first started with SD trading I had the impression that engulfing involve just candles and that's it like the ones we read in books and on popular trading websites. Later on Gil Ben-Hur opened my eyes to what seems like a much better way to whom I am very grateful.

An engulf in price is not determined solely on 2 or a few candles like we read on the internet, but the crossing of important zone in the direction of the intended trade. The zone could S, D or SR. It takes a lot of capital to break these zones. The only people that have the capital to do so are the institutional traders. They will not spend their money in vain. When they are willing to spend their money breaking zones they most likely intend to take price beyond the broken zone at some point to the next zone. (Enter after a retrace)

The quality of the engulf depends on how important the broken zone is... That needs study.
Riding the order flow
  • #29,754
  • Feb 26, 2015 8:22pm Feb 26, 2015 8:22pm
Just to add I personally find the traditional engulf in the LTF is good for trade triggers once an important zone have engulf followed by a retrace. In fact more than half my trades are taken like that.
Riding the order flow
  • #29,755
  • Feb 26, 2015 8:29pm Feb 26, 2015 8:29pm
Quoting Binyamin
When I first started with SD trading I had the impression that engulfing involve just candles and that's it like the ones we read in books and on popular trading websites. Later on Gil Ben-Hur opened my eyes to what seems like a much better way to whom I am very grateful. An engulf in price is not determined solely on 2 or a few candles like we read on the internet, but the crossing of important zone in the direction of the intended trade. The zone could S, D or SR. It takes a lot of capital to break these zones. The only people that have the capital...
can u please show some examples?
  • #29,756
  • Feb 27, 2015 2:30am Feb 27, 2015 2:30am
Quoting Binyamin
When I first started with SD trading I had the impression that engulfing involve just candles and that's it like the ones we read in books and on popular trading websites. Later on Gil Ben-Hur opened my eyes to what seems like a much better way to whom I am very grateful. An engulf in price is not determined solely on 2 or a few candles like we read on the internet, but the crossing of important zone in the direction of the intended trade. The zone could S, D or SR. It takes a lot of capital to break these zones. The only people that have the capital...
Hi Binyamin, thanks for you clarified reply, are this "crossing of important zone in the direction of the intended trade" preceded by stop-huntings, are these 2 facts related to each others? And what about engulfing that bounce a defined S/D zones ? those are not "in the direction of the intended trade" but instead in the oposite direction.

thanks in advance
  • #29,757
  • Edited 9:07am Feb 27, 2015 8:44am | Edited 9:07am
Quoting vladutz112
{quote} can u please show some examples?
I've been taking these trades for a while so I may miss details. Any way
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I will skip the HTF analysis from the weekly chart (unless requested) and get right into the LTF analysis. In the chart above area A is what seems like a supply zone and area B is where price reacted.
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I will add that the reason why D at 1 is important is because D form after engulfing a previous important S... besides the fact that D held up price. I hope it make sense.
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A bit more about the importance of a D or S. If it form after breaking a previous important D or S it is important. So if you perform this analysis you will be looking left and then left and left unlike most SD traders.
Riding the order flow
  • #29,758
  • Feb 27, 2015 9:01am Feb 27, 2015 9:01am
Quoting mellyfx
{quote} Hi Binyamin, thanks for you clarified reply, are this "crossing of important zone in the direction of the intended trade" preceded by stop-huntings, are these 2 facts related to each others? And what about engulfing that bounce a defined S/D zones ? those are not "in the direction of the intended trade" but instead in the oposite direction. thanks in advance
Institutional traders (IT) knows about SD traders, so they also feed on SD traders that are unrefined. Look at your charts SR, S and D are easily broken as they are respected sometimes. So yes IT will also run stops of SD traders to fill their orders. So can we evaluate SD zones to determine if it have a high chance to hold up before hand? The information is in this thread but it is intermix with what I think is not true. Refer to my previous post on how I determine if a zone is important or not. That will give you a clue.

Yes the prevailing theory about what IT are doing behind price is also in this thread. But in my opinion if you think about it, we really don't know what is happening or who is moving the price. For all you know no one might be in control. Only statistics can review the truth but not necessarily why it happen.

Yes probably all ITs know about engulfing of zones and they all work together to make sure there is order in the market it feels better to believe that than saying... But maybe like the rise and fall of sea tides there is somehow order out of chaos that we cannot explain. To me the answer to that is blowing in the wind and like other human beings I will use some theory to explain a phenomena because it feels better, but I know it could all be rubbish. My 2 cents.
Riding the order flow
  • #29,759
  • Feb 27, 2015 9:16am Feb 27, 2015 9:16am
AUDUSD shorts. I'd say about a 50% chance of working out oh hitting 2:1. Balls on the line. Where have the guru's gone? Share your charts.

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  • #29,760
  • Feb 27, 2015 11:13am Feb 27, 2015 11:13am
Quoting Binyamin
{quote} Institutional traders (IT) knows about SD traders, so they also feed on SD traders that are unrefined. Look at your charts SR, S and D are easily broken as they are respected sometimes. So yes IT will also run stops of SD traders to fill their orders. So can we evaluate SD zones to determine if it have a high chance to hold up before hand? The information is in this thread but it is intermix with what I think is not true. Refer to my previous post on how I determine if a zone is important or not. That will give you a clue. Yes the prevailing...

This doesn't look like anyone in control to me!

The powers that move this market are behind these patterns. There is no hocus pocus, maybe's or fluff. The market is not random, infact if you know what to look for the market is very precise.

When price forms like this, its a sure thing. Time after time it pulls the same moves.

Warren

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I need to finish something i started
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