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Let's Trade Options

  • #7,401
  • Edited 2:17pm Feb 26, 2015 2:04pm | Edited 2:17pm
Quoting StrayDog
... All I did is some small short on SPWR... $32.61 to $32.25...
Mofo is $31.80 now... but never mind... it pays to fade ballistic moves after ER's... like fading FSLR or CRM today.
FSLR lost 60 cents in 30 minutes... on CRM there was a chance to grab about $1.5 per share...

market finally falling... VIX is rising... lets say bad preliminary GDP tomorrow, and voila ---> 1%+ drop on SPY...
and we all have put spreads on it...


add-on
Someone bought 200 SPY Feb27 210/209.5 put spreads for $0.12...
TF you are in for $0.07... I bought them today for $0.09
CG have some also, not sure if this strikes or lower
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,402
  • Feb 26, 2015 2:18pm Feb 26, 2015 2:18pm
yeah, it is a very tough road down, though. One thing I see is UST's are selling off - if we get a low print for GDP, used to be it would be the old "bad news is good news" because that meant the Fed would be putting off a ff rate hike - but now, it looks like the bond market is working on the premise that the Yellen dove is hawk in disguise - they don't believe. The markets are a study in crowd behavior; belief/disbelief is everything...

Lowest I saw on the SPY put spread was $0.06, just for a short while after I got in.....good luck to us.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,403
  • Feb 26, 2015 2:37pm Feb 26, 2015 2:37pm
Quoting The Fool
yeah, it is a very tough road down, though. One thing I see is UST's are selling off - if we get a low print for GDP, used to be it would be the old "bad news is good news" because that meant the Fed would be putting off a ff rate hike - but now, it looks like the bond market is working on the premise that the Yellen dove is hawk in disguise - they don't believe. The markets are a study in crowd behavior; belief/disbelief is everything... Lowest I saw on the SPY put spread was $0.06, just for a short while after I got in.....good luck to us.....
took this on another account long put spread on SPY, Just in case the number is bad tomorrow, a net debit of 2c. A long shot but risk worthy

SPY Feb 2015 209.500 put (SPY150227P00209500)
-OPR
0.15 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.07(33.33%) 20:18

SPY Feb 2015 209.000 put (SPY150227P00209000)
-OPR
0.13 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.04(26.67%) 20:19
  • #7,404
  • Feb 26, 2015 3:16pm Feb 26, 2015 3:16pm
Quoting The Fool
yeah, it is a very tough road down, though......
SPY gonna print 2 red dojis in a row? Miraculous....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,405
  • Feb 26, 2015 3:37pm Feb 26, 2015 3:37pm
And a string of outlier moves continues... Didn't trade ER's today...

MNST currently +7.4% ---> EM 4%

SPLK is up more than EM, but it is too early... ADSK inside EM, also up...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,406
  • Feb 27, 2015 1:31am Feb 27, 2015 1:31am
Quoting The Fool
yeah, it is a very tough road down, though. One thing I see is UST's are selling off - if we get a low print for GDP, used to be it would be the old "bad news is good news" because that meant the Fed would be putting off a ff rate hike - but now, it looks like the bond market is working on the premise that the Yellen dove is hawk in disguise - they don't believe......
/ZB I see is a little red overnight. TLT has given back most of its gains this week, looking for that to continue. If I can get more selling next week & TLT finishes 3/6 at $125.5 I will have a perfect close to the diagonal below. I much prefer when they set up like this & I don't have to sweat on the Death Slide....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-02-26_tlt.png Size: 56 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,407
  • Feb 27, 2015 1:44am Feb 27, 2015 1:44am
uh........

http://www.cnet.com/news/human-head-...tag=YHF65cbda0
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,408
  • Feb 27, 2015 2:01am Feb 27, 2015 2:01am
Quoting The Fool
TLT has given back most of its gains this week, looking for that to continue.
Many call for new highs in the long bond given such low yields for the EZone bonds - 5-yr Bund neg now, Spanish 10yr 1.5%, Irish 10yr <1%, etc .... and ^TNX printed 2.15% this week? You can see why UST bulls are bullish. So, will TLT bounce, or keep falling? Will ECB's QE get the EZone rates up?

Worth time looking for ways to trade the latter scenario....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-02-26_tltc.png Size: 120 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,409
  • Feb 27, 2015 8:07am Feb 27, 2015 8:07am
Quoting StrayDog
And a string of outlier moves continues... Didn't trade ER's today... MNST currently +7.4% ---> EM 4% SPLK is up more than EM, but it is too early... ADSK inside EM, also up...
Ideas for today

MNST... a candidate for fading the move... currently up over 10%, EM was 4%... what a outlier move... It could easily give back $4-5
SPLK also a candidate...

In case of technical pullback on indices, we already have put spreads on SPY... interested also in CFDs, maybe calls on VXX...
a friend of mine bought UVXY in pre-market... looks like GDP didn't move market at all... could be a good trading day finally.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,410
  • Feb 27, 2015 8:44am Feb 27, 2015 8:44am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Ideas for today MNST... a candidate for fading the move... currently up over 10%, EM was 4%... what a outlier move... It could easily give back $4-5 SPLK also a candidate... In case of technical pullback on indices, we already have put spreads on SPY... interested also in CFDs, maybe calls on VXX... a friend of mine bought UVXY in pre-market... looks like GDP didn't move market at all... could be a good trading day finally.

Well, SPLK droped $4 quickly, but MNST.... that is some move...

well i missed VXX 28 calls, looking at these stocks...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,411
  • Feb 27, 2015 8:47am Feb 27, 2015 8:47am
SPY Feb4 bear put spread needs a drop below $210 to make decent money, maybe possible if bears can grow some cojones....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,412
  • Edited 9:29am Feb 27, 2015 9:08am | Edited 9:29am
Quoting The Fool
SPY Feb4 bear put spread needs a drop below $210 to make decent money, maybe possible if bears can grow some cojones....
Exactly... 2100 on /ES is very important level... so far, daily low is 2103.25...


SPLK went from +7.5% to -3%...
I had idea of shorting it AND MNST... I shorted MNST only... @ $139.57... order was 2 times in profit, but it didn't get to my TP... I tried to close it, but missed closing... sitting in loss there, MNST above $143 ---> while SPLK is sinking... mistake after mistake...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,413
  • Feb 27, 2015 9:39am Feb 27, 2015 9:39am
Quoting The Fool
SPY Feb4 bear put spread needs a drop below $210 to make decent money, maybe possible if bears can grow some cojones....
looking for it to start falingl from here

SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
-NYSEArca
211.35 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.10(0.01%) 15:38 - Nasdaq Real Time Price
  • #7,414
  • Feb 27, 2015 11:25am Feb 27, 2015 11:25am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} looking for it to start falingl from here
OK, Brother.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,415
  • Feb 27, 2015 11:37am Feb 27, 2015 11:37am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} OK, Brother.
Why to take profit at the end of the month on overstretched market?

Or it will fall, but in last 2 hours... What is a probability for that?
Death of a thousand cuts... I need a nice winner, but market doesn't give a shit about that.
I will just eat another orange... you know - healthy food. I have a banana and apple also.


What a pullback on JCP... another example of fading the move... Gotta trade that more often, but not to over-think and choose trough the stocks, but do all that shit with small size, especially cheaper stocks...

/ES 2110... just frustrating
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,416
  • Feb 27, 2015 12:02pm Feb 27, 2015 12:02pm
Hey TF... I don't know if you watched this video

Double Diagonal Spreads

  1. 02/24/2015

it is from Liz & Jenny show...

Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,417
  • Feb 27, 2015 12:17pm Feb 27, 2015 12:17pm
I am having cinnamon-raisin bagels with peanut butter and raspberry jam. Most likely scenario is SnP shoots up 10 pts in the last hour. I risked $56+comms on that SPY put spread. My bigger worry is the longer dated SPY diagonals I am in. At least I will get to next week, on those, time is my ally for now. I really need to see SPY stage a pullback under $210 for a week or so...fat chance. It's somebody's birthday so there's chocolate cake in there. Danger of working in an office with ladies is they are always stuffing food down your gullet. Re: those ER fade plays - TT had a study segment where they showed that most often the price will keep moving in the direction of the ER spike. But I have made some good trades fading those, nonetheless.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,418
  • Feb 27, 2015 12:23pm Feb 27, 2015 12:23pm
Quoting The Fool
I am having cinnamon-raisin bagels with peanut butter and raspberry jam. .
I suppose that is OK...

Quoting The Fool
Re: those ER fade plays - TT had a study segment where they showed that most often the price will keep moving in the direction of the ER spike. But I have made some good trades fading those, nonetheless.
I know, watched that... I think outlier moves are good for fading. Just have to be the same money and risk management on all of them.
It is a boring week, and I am reaching hard to find anything to trade... and losing a little during the process...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,419
  • Feb 27, 2015 12:50pm Feb 27, 2015 12:50pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} OK, Brother.
has to be one of the worse trading weeks I've had for a while, spy does not want to move, all my options look to expire worthless.
On another note T.F. if you see any verticals that are 2c or under and only 5 strikes aways and have 4 weeks DTE remaining let me know on SPY
  • #7,420
  • Feb 27, 2015 12:57pm Feb 27, 2015 12:57pm
OMG!

/NQ dropped like 10 points - BUY THAT DIP QUICKLY.... imminent breakout to the sky, buy now ---> or you will regret that missed juicy opp...

BTFD-ers don't have a cash flow issues...

BUY THE DIP SONG
just buy, just buy that funny lil' dip...
don't be shy, just buy...
when whales start selling, they will sell into the strength,
but you lil' retail client, you are gonna buy the dip...
oh just buy the dip...
buy the dip...
what else is there to trade....
two sided market is a myth...
just buy the dip, and don't worry much...
shit ain't gonna hit the fan...
just buy the dip, and continue to do so...
stay mechanical, don't over-think it...
just buy, buy, buy...
if it goes against you, just buy some more...
more and more...
just buy, until you go bankrupt...
yeah mofo, just buy the dip...


eating my banana...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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