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Rags to Riches in 10 or 20 Trades - Simplicity at its finest

  • #1,701
  • Feb 26, 2015 4:44am Feb 26, 2015 4:44am
the third one

preparing the next step

take care
Don't give up
  • #1,702
  • Feb 26, 2015 4:44am Feb 26, 2015 4:44am
How's goin' here?
Don't give up
  • #1,703
  • Feb 26, 2015 10:53am Feb 26, 2015 10:53am
Your doing well geomink.
It's in fear when people show what they truly value.
  • #1,704
  • Feb 26, 2015 4:15pm Feb 26, 2015 4:15pm
Quoting ensale
Your doing well geomink.
shall see ensale ............... shall see..........
the journey is really hard.........
but don't give up......
never give up.....
Don't give up
  • #1,705
  • Feb 26, 2015 4:16pm Feb 26, 2015 4:16pm
Quoting geomink
{quote} shall see ensale ............... shall see.......... the journey is really hard......... but don't give up...... never give up.....
You are making it look easy...
  • #1,706
  • Feb 26, 2015 4:23pm Feb 26, 2015 4:23pm
Quoting slug
{quote} You are making it look easy...
it's really not simple slug, trust me
Don't give up
  • #1,707
  • Feb 26, 2015 4:24pm Feb 26, 2015 4:24pm
This is probably the coolest thread in FF. If you have some risk tolerance, it really seems to me that you can take a small starting amount and get huge gains.

Good luck to all and don't give up!
I am NOT an expert. I post to learn from others.
  • #1,708
  • Feb 26, 2015 4:26pm Feb 26, 2015 4:26pm
Quoting Phantom-X
This is probably the coolest thread in FF. If you have some risk tolerance, it really seems to me that you can take a small starting amount and get huge gains. Good luck to all and don't give up!
Very kind of you..... all the best Phantom
Don't give up
  • #1,709
  • Edited 11:54pm Feb 26, 2015 5:12pm | Edited 11:54pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
9 NWT examples

9 wins 0 losses
18 wins and 9 losses
30 wins and 21 losses
50 wins and 41 losses
150 wins and 141 losses

You get the point? As long as you get those 9 Net Winning Trades, you will make a 100,000% gain.
There is a fatal flaw in your strategy. It assumes that the probability of getting a win and a loss is the same. It's not. The probability of a currency going down 50 pips is twice as high as going up 100 pips. This means that there is only a 33% chance of having your first win on the first try. To get 9 wins in a row means that the odds of this happening are (33%)^9 or 0.0046411%. The odds of this happening are 1 out of 21,546. You might say that you could get 18 wins and 9 loses and that'll be the same right? Well assuming Gamblers Ruin doesn't make you broke, the odds are even worse. The odds of getting 9 loses and 18 wins is (33%)^18 / (66%) ^9. This would be 0.00000000215 / 0.0237 = 0.0000000907 chance of happening or 1 out of 11,025,358 chance of that happening. To get 150 wins and 141 loses, the odds of winning the lottery would be far better.

EDIT: odds adjusted for wins to be 9 more than loses regardless of how many games played should be around 1 out of 13,240.
  • #1,710
  • Feb 26, 2015 5:16pm Feb 26, 2015 5:16pm
Quoting geomink
{quote} Very kind of you..... all the best Phantom
bravo bravo
  • #1,711
  • Feb 26, 2015 7:28pm Feb 26, 2015 7:28pm
Quoting Phantom-X
This is probably the coolest thread in FF. If you have some risk tolerance, it really seems to me that you can take a small starting amount and get huge gains. Good luck to all and don't give up!
Risk tolerance? This is outright gambling. You might as well take your entire life savings and buy lottery tickets. The odds of getting 9 wins and 0 loses is 1 out of 19861. (my first calculation in the above post used 0.33 instead of 0.333.)
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File Type: xls rags to riches calculator.xls   10 KB | 450 downloads
  • #1,712
  • Feb 26, 2015 9:52pm Feb 26, 2015 9:52pm
Quoting replaced
{quote} Risk tolerance? This is outright gambling. You might as well take your entire life savings and buy lottery tickets. The odds of getting 9 wins and 0 loses is 1 out of 19861. (my first calculation in the above post used 0.33 instead of 0.333.) {file} {image}


It looks like you put a lot of time into trying to prove how dumb this plan is... But it seems to me that all of your calculations are based on buying and/or selling at random times. I believe that a good percentage of the people who try to do this will have enough sense to know that you can't do it based on chance alone, or else it is no better than gambling. With a strategy that you have tested in the live market over and over again over the course of hundreds or thousands of trades, it is definitely possible to have a mathematical advantage so that, as long as you stick to your strategy, you will profit.

Also, don't your calculations show the odds of having "x" amount of profitable trades in a row, and then "x" amount of losing trades in a row? I could be thinking about that the wrong way...

Anyways, with a consistent strategy, somebody could definitely (and with reasonable probability) profit from 100 trades (not in a row) out of a total of 191 taken (which would give 9 net winning trades) --> that would be a total accuracy/profit percentage of about 52.3 percent... just following the trend could probably get you that...

All this to say: your calculations are just based off blindly taking trades. For Somebody using any kind of strategy those odds would not be applicable.
  • #1,713
  • Edited 10:44pm Feb 26, 2015 10:32pm | Edited 10:44pm
Quoting replaced
{quote} There is a fatal flaw in your strategy. It assumes that the probability of getting a win and a loss is the same. It's not. The probability of a currency going down 50 pips is twice as high as going up 100 pips. This means that there is only a 33% chance of having your first win on the first try. To get 9 wins in a row means that the odds of this happening are (33%)^9 or 0.0046411%. The odds of this happening are 1 out of 21,546. You might say that you could get 18 wins and 9 loses and that'll be the same right? Well assuming Gamblers Ruin...
Thats the dumbest thing I've ever heard. Probability is all about timing.

I just made 13x risk with a 15 pip stop loss ($200 at risk). Should have bet more. Wasn't too confident though.

10x risk is like so, risking 20% of profit made on last trade.

$200 into $2000
$400 into $4000 (6000)
$800 into $8000 (14000)
$1600 into $16000 (30000)
$3200 into $32000 (62000)

62k in 5 trades
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #1,714
  • Feb 26, 2015 10:33pm Feb 26, 2015 10:33pm
I'm an asshole abuser yet I still like helping people.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #1,715
  • Feb 26, 2015 10:41pm Feb 26, 2015 10:41pm
If you can't time the market you should dollar cost average

if you can, tight stops
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #1,716
  • Feb 26, 2015 10:42pm Feb 26, 2015 10:42pm
Hahaha typos. Let me fix that

$200 into $2000
$400 into $4000 (6000)
$800 into $8000 (14000)
$1600 into $16000 (30000)
$3200 into $32000 (62000)
62k in 5 trades

please note that if you truly wish to risk 20% of an account to triple it you must do so with 40 pip stop and 400 pip TP. and 50x margin. weekly time frame price targets with h4/h1 entries. not easy, but so worth it.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #1,717
  • Feb 26, 2015 10:52pm Feb 26, 2015 10:52pm
also note the drawdown is minimal on this the deeper you go into profit because you aren't risking 20% of account, only 20% of the profit from thhe last trade. you see by the 5th trade you are risking only $3200 of $30000, barely 10% of total account. but at this point, account is only doubling per trade not tripling. it's fine either way you want to do it. risking full 20% of account instead of last trades profit will get you much different results, but drawdowns hurt more.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #1,718
  • Feb 26, 2015 11:11pm Feb 26, 2015 11:11pm
Forgot to mention pyramid. Give me an hour
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #1,719
  • Edited 11:51pm Feb 26, 2015 11:24pm | Edited 11:51pm
Quoting adrew1903
{quote}
With a strategy that you have tested in the live market over and over again over the course of hundreds or thousands of trades, it is definitely possible to have a mathematical advantage so that, as long as you stick to your strategy, you will profit.
There's a huge difference between testing a strategy and implementing it in real life. I suspect that if the price reaches a certain pip, it counts as a sale. In real life, the price could reach that but no sale might not occur. This happens a lot in stocks where if you place an order to sell a stock at $50.80 and a trade occurs at $50.80, your shares might not sell because of other orders getting filled and not yours. A back test might not take this into account which has a significant impact on ROI. Also spreads + commissions and what worked out in the past might not work in the future.

Quoting adrew1903
Also, don't your calculations show the odds of having "x" amount of profitable trades in a row, and then "x" amount of losing trades in a row?
It doesn't matter too much.

Let's assume our goal is to win 2 times more than losing and that there's a 33% chance of winning each occurrence. For 2 games the odds are.

Our chances are 44.4444~% that there are 2 loses in a row.
Our chances are 11.1111~% for 2 wins in a row to happen.
-
The chances are 22.2222~% a loss will happen and then a win
The chances are 22.2222~% a win will happen and then a loss
So both of those combined equals 22.22~ + 22.22~ = 44.44~. (this would be a break even and so can be disregarded)

44.44% + 11.11% + 44.44% = 100%. For 3 games, the odds 3.7% + 11.111% that you'll get 2 or 3 wins out of 3 games. For 4 games the odds are 1.234% + 3.7% + 11.111% and so on reaching a maximum of 16.6666% for infinite games. So yes my calculator is off, probably since I didn't want to spend too much time with it. However it's still nothing short of gambling. So odds adjusted to compensate for this, instead of 1 out of 19,861 it should be 1 out of 13,240.

Quoting adrew1903
I could be thinking about that the wrong way... Anyways, with a consistent strategy, somebody could definitely (and with reasonable probability) profit from 100 trades (not in a row) out of a total of 191 taken (which would give 9 net winning trades) --> that would be a total accuracy/profit percentage of about 52.3 percent... just following the trend could probably get you that... All this to say: your calculations are just based off blindly taking trades. For Somebody using any kind of strategy those odds would not be applicable.
With this strategy, there is only a 33% chance of doubling your money, but a 66% chance that you'll lose and have another doubling to do. Just do the math on that one. It's like flipping a coin and every time you're wrong you lose 2 points but only gain 1 when you're right.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls rags to riches attempt.xls   30 KB | 473 downloads
  • #1,720
  • Feb 27, 2015 7:45am Feb 27, 2015 7:45am
we need Net Win. Not numbers of win in row.. nice MM skill bro
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