Let's Trade Options | Page 370 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

BELLA SYSTEM. Let's try it, let's improve it! 118 replies

Let's Trade The News V 0.4 ! 479 replies

Any Options, Bull Options & Option Bit 39 replies

Let's Trade The News! 46 replies

Let a trade develop? 17 replies

Attachments: Let's Trade Options
Exit Attachments

Let's Trade Options

  • #7,381
  • Feb 25, 2015 3:11pm Feb 25, 2015 3:11pm
OK bro I will look at this later today, gotta go do my real job....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,382
  • Feb 25, 2015 4:14pm Feb 25, 2015 4:14pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} As stated earlier I'm looking @ OIL reaching the area in blue (80.9 Mid), thinking of taking a couple of call weeklies to 43 min. Most of this question is geared towards gator, where you can have input I believe would be on the move you think crude would make from that level, and how fast (time frame from buy 39.77 / 36.50 / 33.23 to tp 43.04? In normal conditions, would weeklies be too soon? May move my time up to a month or more...as once we enter the mofu zone, it may bounce around My calls would be through USO as well. Which speaking...
lets see is or what happens after 51.25 ish.. its messy here. i posted the spot 51.25 ish as a place to look.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #7,383
  • Feb 25, 2015 4:20pm Feb 25, 2015 4:20pm
Quoting The Fool
OK bro I will look at this later today, gotta go do my real job....
haha, I know that feeling....usually when I'm posting I'm at my real job. No rush- thanks

Quoting gatorinla
{quote} lets see is or what happens after 51.25 ish.. its messy here. i posted the spot 51.25 ish as a place to look.
gotcha, I'll find the post
  • #7,384
  • Feb 25, 2015 4:49pm Feb 25, 2015 4:49pm
Quoting The Fool
chart is 5m Nasdaq COMP today - you see what a little news can do (AAPL)...I want to see US indices reaction to CPI/GDP to close out the week...I am desperate for red candles... {image}
If I wasn't in a position a long put spread foe the end of month closure is looking likely as SPY struggled higher today, the one below was the one that got my eye, net 4c debit, as for crude it does look as it wants much higher and closed above the monthly pivot but will it by end of Friday

SPY Feb 2015 210.000 put (SPY150227P00210000)
-OPR
0.25 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.02(8.00%) 21:14

SPY Feb 2015 209.500 put (SPY150227P00209500)
-OPR
0.21 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.01(5.26%) 20:56
  • #7,385
  • Feb 25, 2015 4:55pm Feb 25, 2015 4:55pm
Hey CG, that put spread will likely be there at the open. We may have a gap down but if we do I bet it's not much.

Maybe after House Repubs accused Yellen & Co. of being a tool of Wall Street (imagine that!), they will let it blow off a little bit...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/0...usaolp00000592
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,386
  • Feb 25, 2015 4:58pm Feb 25, 2015 4:58pm
Quoting The Fool
Hey CG, that put spread will likely be there at the open. We may have a gap down but if we do I bet it's not much. Maybe after House Repubs accused Yellen & Co. of being a tool of Wall Street (imagine that!), they will let it blow off a little bit... http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/0...usaolp00000592
if its there tomorrow then may get better and closer strike prices to the close of today
  • #7,387
  • Feb 25, 2015 7:37pm Feb 25, 2015 7:37pm
I am looking at the gap down over the last trading days of November, a drop in USO from $29 to $25, which was a drop in /CL from $73.5 to $65, m/l. I'd like to see that gap filled & think it could get done by Q3 sometime - late Summer - possibly sooner. I am just setting up trades with long-dated otm options - I don't like trading weeklies with cheap options. I will show these in more detail later, but some are:

- May/Jun $25 call calendar @ $0.10 debit
- Jun $24/$24.5 call vertical @ $0.06 debit
- Jul/Oct $27.5 call calendar @ $0.11 debit
- Jul $26.5/$27 call vertical @ <$0.05 debit

I will look to fund some of these with high-prob put spreads for credit, Super Bull style. Something to note: if USO rises as these trades foretell, USO IVR will drop hard and all of the options in play will cheapen - that will bring down the profit potential of the spreads and bring in the b/e points on them as well. So, it's important to get in cheap and also to try to lower the cost basis with credit spreads, if possible.

Will show some P/L's later...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-02-USO.png Size: 122 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,388
  • Edited 8:12pm Feb 25, 2015 7:59pm | Edited 8:12pm
Quoting The Fool
Big BABA dilutions coming, shares get out of lockup in Mar and Sept http://247wallst.com/technology-3/20...irations-near/
the first lockup breaks on 3/19, a day b4 Mar opex
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-02-25_baba.png Size: 57 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,389
  • Edited 8:18am Feb 26, 2015 3:15am | Edited 8:18am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} If I wasn't in a position a long put spread foe the end of month closure is looking likely as SPY struggled higher today, the one below was the one that got my eye, net 4c debit, ....
Hey CG... That is a good idea, IMO... I am looking at that, and other put spreads also... and some cheap VIX OTM call spreads. Idk, like March 16/18 or 17/19... or $1 wide spreads maybe.

Thinking behind this:
After 3 days of basically no-moving, or very slow moving, market has shown vulnerability yesterday when AAPL dragged it down. DAX is in 40 point range this week, and that is unsustainable. It will move somewhere, and with markets at ATH, down move would be much bigger, IMO. Also, VIX is showing will to go up again, IMO. We could see it in vicinity of $20 again. Maybe we could see a 1.5%-2% drop on SPX till Friday... just to make some dip... I still think that in order to see a bigger drop, a.k.a. correction - SPX will probably hit higher ground first, like 2130/40/50... since it did honor every single channel line on weekly / daily TF so far. Level of complacency and lack of fear is very very mean reverting. This can very well be just another bear trap, but we can try to catch possible down move with some small bets... since I ain't gonna buy any of this ATH shit, that's for sure.

add-on
So far, indices are grinding up in pre-market... 3 hours until open.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,390
  • Feb 26, 2015 8:35am Feb 26, 2015 8:35am
G'Day SDog, waking up and checking out the flow this morning I see fiber has broken down out of its tightline range. I see CPI printed lower but otoh I see UST futures slipping. Equity futures flattish. I did a quick fill of SPY $210/$209.5 Feb4 puts for $0.07....not risking much...shorting this beast a dicey proposition, thinking a little selloff at month-end looks plausible...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,391
  • Feb 26, 2015 8:55am Feb 26, 2015 8:55am
Quoting The Fool
I did a quick fill of SPY $210/$209.5 Feb4 puts for $0.07....not risking much...shorting this beast a dicey proposition, thinking a little selloff at month-end looks plausible...
WTI down, stronger USD helping a bearish mood, I just need to see /NQ break down to get some momentum across the board
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,392
  • Feb 26, 2015 9:15am Feb 26, 2015 9:15am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} WTI down, stronger USD helping a bearish mood, I just need to see /NQ break down to get some momentum across the board
Yep... AAPL is down again... at least some volatility is back.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,393
  • Feb 26, 2015 9:31am Feb 26, 2015 9:31am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Yep... AAPL is down again... at least some volatility is back.
FB swingin the biggest dick in the Naz - I failed to do homework on the FCC net neutrality vote today - that's gonna support FB, NFLX
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,394
  • Feb 26, 2015 9:39am Feb 26, 2015 9:39am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} WTI down, stronger USD helping a bearish mood, I just need to see /NQ break down to get some momentum across the board
idk, looks like bulls will eat whatever bears will throw at them, insatiable, then they will eat the bears too...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,395
  • Feb 26, 2015 10:07am Feb 26, 2015 10:07am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} idk, looks like bulls will eat whatever bears will throw at them, insatiable, then they will eat the bears too...
Looks that way so far... DAX is crazy today... I tried to buy it yesterday, but my "logical level to be tested" around 11.160 didn't come...
All I did is some small short on SPWR... $32.61 to $32.25... booked a nice loser on that calls there... moving on...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,396
  • Feb 26, 2015 11:43am Feb 26, 2015 11:43am
Quoting StrayDog
... This can very well be just another bear trap...
:nerd:
like in Groundhog Day
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,397
  • Feb 26, 2015 12:04pm Feb 26, 2015 12:04pm
Apple sends out invites for March 9 event

Heh... i-Watch?

Such big expectations for that device... idk... if you already have new i-Phone, are you really willing to pay $500 for i-Watch?
Just to have Skype IMs, and e-mails on it... on small screen - like all that you already have on your smartphone... wtf...
Ah it will measure blood pressure and shit...
But congrats on brand strength, also marketing power is amazing... and products are good.
Used to work on Mac computers... never restarted it in 3 years period... but i-Watch, idk.

#mofo_bear_trap
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,398
  • Feb 26, 2015 12:10pm Feb 26, 2015 12:10pm
hm... yet another BWB on SPX, by Tony... Feb27 options

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Tony-BWB-1dte.PNG Size: 81 KB
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,399
  • Feb 26, 2015 1:20pm Feb 26, 2015 1:20pm
Quoting StrayDog
Heh... i-Watch?
I think the I-watch will be a turd. But what do I know? I don't even have a smart phone. I would not even have a cell phone except they gave me one at work. I don't have a Facebook page. Somebody asked me if I wanted to friend her - I misread that badly. My blood pressure is always high. I hate Macs, always been a PC cloner. i-Watch, pffft....soon it'll be the i-Car, too....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,400
  • Feb 26, 2015 1:56pm Feb 26, 2015 1:56pm
Quoting The Fool
I did a quick fill of SPY $210/$209.5 Feb4 puts for $0.07....not risking much...shorting this beast a dicey proposition, thinking a little selloff at month-end looks plausible...
This trade is $15 in the black, I need SPY to break below $210 to make good money....looks like tough sledding.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
18 traders viewing now