Trading the lines

Reluctance/bounce, crappy trading info and a bird analogy
That is encouraging. What is D & G?

On a further note: I dont want to bullshit you. So let me tell you a secret. The areas where price seem reluctant to remain or bounce at is the places that are interesting. Places where price repeatedly is reluctant to remain is even more interesting. People nag so much about pips and stoploss and take profit and timeframes, on and on. They arent seeing the forest because of all of the trees. Theyre heads are already filled to the brim with ideas about how it should be, even before they make their first trade. A lot of people already even have a fixed idea on how to enter, what timeframe, what stoploss, what take profit, what risk/reward ratio they are looking for. They have these ideas already in place as they try to aquire the knowledge of how to trade. But that IS the knowledge of how to trade. Theyre minds are so set already in advance, that they cannot entertain ideas and hypothesis. They think they know what to do even before they start.

The lines, or the areas where price is reluctant to remain/bounce ARE the places to use for basis on how to calculate all those things. Thats the most basic knowledge of how to trade, the most fundamental knowledge on how to trade. 90% of the people here have no clue about that. Of this i am quite certain. I might be wrong. But i think i have the evidence to back it up.

Indicators and other simple math cannot calculate these levels. But a human brain and a pair of eyes can. Advanced mathematical programs can make these kind of calculations, but i havent seen anything even remotely close to that on forex factory or anywhere else on the internet. Its not hard to imagine reasons for that.

Why is it that there is so much false information about how to trade? The reasons for these circumstances is probably manifold.

 

1. The best explanation i know i have already touched on: People are too filled up with ideas on how to trade even before they begin. They have ideas on how much money to make and how fast they are going to make it. They fail to see money or the abscence therof is the end product of a very long and complicated equation dealing with highly unknown variables like "Patience", "Focus", "Empty/full" and so on. The faults of these trading strategies are perpetuated by people of this type and in this kind of situation.
2. I think there are missleaders: Both 1) scammers whose main intent is to get people to "fund" them, and 2) people who are simply spreading lies about trading. Sometimes one person does both things, though the later type person is probably a bit smarter and a bit more well funded. I think there are people of both categories here on FF, but only a few of the later category and many of the first. The liers are probably funded by banks.
3. The social effect: People wants to feel appreciated and wants to hang out with other people. Some people become desperate, sitting around in their underwear in their mothers basement eating Cheese doodles. These people use FF and the rest of the internet as a social thing because for different reasons they substitute the internet for "real" social acts. These people perpetuate bullshit and lies because it is the only way of social conduct they can think of.

While i am at it, let me tell you another secret: Price is not pre made. Or if it is, i need to act like i dont know how anyway, since i dont know any way of getting the information. So any trader needs to act without knowing or ever getting to know any pre planned levels. This is the basis and problem of technical analysis. But and this is a big important BUT, that doesnt mean there are no clues to point you the way unto what price will be in the future. You gotta be smarter then some of the smartest brains in the world. Not that they are very smart... they are actually quite stupid most of the time. Well, the clues are there. Like i said recently: Aint nothing random about it.

So, price is not pre decided, but there are still clues to tell you where its going. It may seem impossible. At least to me, for many years it seemed impossible. Now i know better. Think about it this way: A flock of birds searching for food. Its not predecided four days in advance where the flock will be. No biologist could give you their exact coordinates exactly four days in advance. But as they rise from their current position you see in what direction, and if you have a map of their area you can guess where they are heading. Maybe on the way they might smell or see something nice and divert their course, but most probably they will fly as they where headed to the closest place in that direction where they usually hang out and look for food.

The bird analogy is not very far fetched, since we are in essence still talking about a flock behaviour type thing. Only the flock is not a matter of amounts of people but amounts of money. It doesnt matter if its 1, 6, 49 or 126.549.546 people doing it, what matters is the amount of money.

Continuation of the bird analogy
So you have the map of the bird flock, where they usually hang out. The map is the chart. The feeding areas are the important levels. The job of following the flock is the job of reading the chart. Depending on how exact you want to be in the prediction, you use lower timeframes for more accuracy and higher timeframes for more general accuracy.

So there is no technical reason for the M15?

'Technicalities' are dictated by the NWO of fascist debt lovers

Yupp.

That dont mean there is no systematics to it.

If you graph any natural system, patterns emerge.

Many orders or one?
I have been fascinated by something for five years: A lot of people here on FF seem to think one order is the ONLY way to go. Why is that? They KNOW the market is not made up of one order, so why should the dynamics of the market best be reflected by one open order at a time? I mean what you are trying to do is to follow the market, right? Yeah well, why would you do that best with one open order at a time? There seems to be noone asking this question and noone seems to bother answering it.

For many years i have be trying different hypothesis, but never have i seen much evidence that you should use only ONE open order at a time. When i trade many pairs at once i try to do an average, try to get a feel for the whole world market and as you can see on my closed trades im pretty good at it. But i dont perceive those orders as one order on each pair that im trading, since its all connected.

I think people ASSUME the way to go is one order at a time because of their pregiven circumstances and pregiven, often false information. One of their pregiven circumstances seem to be one order is all they can handle.

Going up and going down




Remember: Its all VERY silly. Its DIRT simple also. Very silly and very simple.
When its going up, you buy. When its not going up, you dont buy. When its going down, you sell. When its not going down, you dont sell.
And you dont have to do it one order at a time. Probably you shouldnt.

Hi Yad, How do I know is going up or down? would you please tell more about that.

Hi yaed;

What do you think?

Steve explaines

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...15#post8109315

Have a look at this too

769 closed trades in 44 days, and im not really trading that account much, just throwing a few trades when i have a few hours or minutes of time.
Got another day job today also. Plan is to wait to get my money back from KPMG and save some more and then i will be trading live again. Maybe in a year.

+0.5% a day is my target. So that half % needs to be enough to live off of and grow the account.

yaed ,
Are you going to use any special money management technique , lot sizes and multiple lots to grow the account daily by .5% ?

Well the kind of thing i have been doing when i was live earlier, and this is a guideline is 100 pip = 1% of the account. That is if im trading one pair.

Empirically, an average day i got +50 pip, good day +100, outstanding day +170. And then there is sort of crappy -50, bad -100, CRAP -170.

I think 50 pips a day consistently is outstanding....
re: many orders, not sure I'm a subscriber to that one, unless you've been shorting EU since 1.39 and have been short at multiple different levels = you're looking at a BIG cash in some day soon. I think most folk are better off at focusing on 'precise entries'

But the question is what market mechanic you are trying to exploit with a precise entry? I mean if we retailers are doing that kind of thing with success, that mean a institution or hedgfund or several is doing something in the same manner over and over.

It is not a given that a precise entry is adverse to multiple positions. Let me give an example:



What i mean is that i really WANT there to be a clear, repeatable, mechanic way of entry that doesnt require any thought processing and decision. I have searched for it, but i have found little evidence to suggest there is such a thing.

I imagine i am the kind of person who goes where the evidence is: I dont believe the corporations and the nation states is out to save us and make things all rosie, because there is little historical evidence to suggest that. I dont believe collectivist religion is worth a damn, because there is little evidence to suggest it. I DO believe family and friends is what is worth anything because there is evidence to suggest it. I DO believe philosphy, science, music, art, mysticism and magic is what can and WILL save humanity because there is evidence to suggest it.

You can't compare us 'little people' to institutions or hedgehunds. On that graph, you should have been selling on the spike up, take profit quick, run, have sex and have a nice nights sleep methinks....

What's really interesting about that graph is it shows the volatility during an ECB press conference, with precise entries and high leverage you can trade events like that once or twice a month, make nice profits and spend the rest of time masturbating/watching TV/aimlessly wandering around the woods
Edit: obviously looking for zombies in the woods.... London open, eyes sharp!!!

Among those i apparently choose wandering the woods aimlessly. I did that a lot in 2009 and 2010. There is so much going on where there are no people. Things that people have forgotten.

(Trying) to make sense





So, to make even more sense, now that ive got the basics of my thoughts down, lets have a look at a third area.
But before we do that let me express a basic idea for all this: I think understanding price is ULTRA, SUPER simple. Its so simple that our minds DOESNT WANT IT TO BE THAT WAY. We OVERCOMPLICATE things. We want to make money fast and every day and have a stable income. Thats not going to happen. There are two ways for us retailers to go with the smart money that i sort of know 1) Quick break sort of scalping that lasts for 10 seconds to say 15 minutes, 2) Very confident trades that lasts for 4-48 hours. There is no other intermediate thing that i know of. Well anyway, where was i? Yes, the third area: