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GBPNZD trading calls

  • #761
  • Feb 24, 2015 3:01am Feb 24, 2015 3:01am
Quoting FXSayWhat
geezzz 250 pips and counting. No one took this trade today???
Any idea why is it so?

Is it because of the "Inflation Expectations q/q" news on NZD earlier today?
  • #762
  • Feb 24, 2015 1:10pm Feb 24, 2015 1:10pm
Quoting judysfriend
{quote} Any idea why is it so? Is it because of the "Inflation Expectations q/q" news on NZD earlier today?
I believe NZD might have mentioned something on possible rate cut.

I noticed the 150 pips jump right after I went out took a quick walk. And then it just kept on going.

Later in London section, I took couple short positions on the 2.0750, and exit before Yellen's speech this morning.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #763
  • Feb 24, 2015 10:45pm Feb 24, 2015 10:45pm
Gidday GBP/NZ

Long at 2.05 2.063 TP hmmmm

running out of steam
  • #764
  • Feb 24, 2015 11:44pm Feb 24, 2015 11:44pm
Quoting eliteincome
Gidday GBP/NZ Long at 2.05 2.063 TP hmmmm running out of steam

Gidday GBP/NZ

NZ crawled back up

EUR/NZ long also 1.50 to 1.52+

small trades now as these Hobbits

are pretty good at cleaning out your pip bag.

Might off jumped in a tad early.

See what happens:nerd:
  • #765
  • Feb 25, 2015 1:42am Feb 25, 2015 1:42am
While GBPNZD is getting off the 2.0500 level, we have these events coming up...

  1. London opens in 45 minutes
  2. GBP BBA Mortgage Approval in 120 minutes.
  3. Carney speaks in 150 minutes.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-02-24_23-27-17.jpg Size: 151 KB

Strong volatility is expected during London opens. Let's see what's up.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #766
  • Feb 25, 2015 2:20am Feb 25, 2015 2:20am
yeah, looks like we have a go up north.
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If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #767
  • Feb 25, 2015 2:57am Feb 25, 2015 2:57am
2.0550 seems to be a good spot to get out for now.
Carney speaks in 60minutes.
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If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #768
  • Edited 11:03am Feb 28, 2015 8:09am | Edited 11:03am
For the coming week a long GBPNZD position might be the trade of the week.

It has moved within range for the last 4,5 weeks. It ended this week and are currently low in that range near support found at around price 2.0350.

Three times before during the last month it has reversed from this area of support. Two times the pair travelled higher for a total off 400 pips. In between these two times it travelled over 200 pips higher when encountering this support area.

For me personally with my system I have a very strong long divergence between price (EMA21) and my indicator (EMA21). This is a signal I follow in my trading. When this occurs at typical areas of support and resistance, I wait for an entry signal to buy or sell.

Possible sceanario for the coming week:

The pair could go lower with as much as 70-100 pips, from here it could climb. First resistance is met at around the 2.0570 level. Around 220 pips up from the support area. If the pair succesfully break this level of resistance. It could climb around 190 pips further to the next level of resistance.

SL levels could be below 2.0315, as far down as 2.0300, if the pair continue to fall in the beginning of the week. If the pair immediately goes long at the start of the week a SL could be set at around 2.0350. Within both these scenarios it is possible to obtain a good Risk:Reward ratio at atleast 1:2 before the first resistance is encountered.

If the pair breaks higher a R:R ratio ut to 1:7 could be possible. But as always, be realistic with these estimates. Settle for the lowest outcome and consider it from there. Still for me a R:R ratio of 1:2 is worth the chance.

The fundamentals for the coming week are biased towards the GBP. If they perform it will strenghten the GBP. The kiwi is quite silent with very few news releases next week.

I trade at the 4h TF and even sometimes at the 1h TF for early entries. So the time horizon is from a couple of day to a week and a half.
Do not let the cost of being wrong, exceed the prize of beeing right
  • #769
  • Mar 4, 2015 1:52am Mar 4, 2015 1:52am
GN'rs, good day,,

where be this beast headed to?

Looking at multi TF charts and starting to see a few ideas, but still contradicting one another.. sidelines and more waiting..
  • #770
  • Mar 4, 2015 1:53am Mar 4, 2015 1:53am
Tashkent, the blue one or the red?
  • #771
  • Mar 4, 2015 5:35am Mar 4, 2015 5:35am
GBPNZD is on the move ... down.
Due to the corrective nature of wave [i], it's most probably declining on a 3 waves corrective wave [iii], being part of an Ending Diagonal wave (c) down.
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  • #772
  • Mar 4, 2015 5:41am Mar 4, 2015 5:41am
This pair has been my favorite in the last week, I keep shorting it and it keeps giving me pips

If only I could manage to hold it longer and not take my profits....
  • #773
  • Edited 12:43pm Mar 4, 2015 12:25pm | Edited 12:43pm
Quoting skyhok
GBPNZD is on the move ... down. Due to the corrective nature of wave [i], it's most probably declining on a 3 waves corrective wave [iii], being part of an Ending Diagonal wave (c) down. {image}
Did I just witnessed someone made a 12-month prediction on the most volatile traded pair in the FX market?

It's hard to predict where it would go for the next hour when it comes to its volatility in GZ. And you did it for 12 months with the waves.

Do you really think market moves based on these technical waves in such long time period?

 

  1. btw you drew the down channel wrong. How would you connect these dots when they are only your imagination?
  2. Also, the purple support line was groundless as well. There was no previous evident saying price would bounce off this level.
  3. And obviously you have not finished the waves after the "C" because it tells me the price would go all the way up to 3.000 non-stop.
  4. Your "target" in pink lacks of technical evident other than your imagination, too.

This is beyond bad.

If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #774
  • Edited 2:56pm Mar 4, 2015 12:44pm | Edited 2:56pm
I am not picking on you. It's just reading what you have put up here earlier is almost insulting my intelligent.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #775
  • Mar 4, 2015 12:53pm Mar 4, 2015 12:53pm
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} Did I just witnessed someone..... blah, blah talking crap...This is beyond bad.
Hey Jackass, there is nothing wrong with what he is doing. Its called forecasting, and while he might be completely wrong in his forecast (or not), it is still a very useful thing to practice. Who are you to put him down like that?
  • #776
  • Edited 1:49pm Mar 4, 2015 1:26pm | Edited 1:49pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} Hey Jackass, there is nothing wrong with what he is doing. Its called forecasting, and while he might be completely wrong in his forecast (or not), it is still a very useful thing to practice. Who are you to put him down like that?
How can you trust the forecast when he can't even correctly draw the channel, support and target? Did you not see that? Do you still think it's useful when all the key information in the forecast isn't valid?

The difference between you and me is I be able to tell when something smells funny. But, can you? Calling someone jackass isn't get you anywhere, bud.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #777
  • Mar 4, 2015 1:49pm Mar 4, 2015 1:49pm
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} Who am I to put him down like that? The guy didn't event know how to correctly draw the channel, support and target. What's wrong with me pinning out his wrong-doing so nubs like you would NOT get mislead? Forecast something in the next a few days is okay using TA. Forecast the price purely using TA for the next 12 months or so is just a laugh stock. It's obvious you didn't get the point. I suggest you clam yourself down abit and too probably need to get some basics TA knowledge before blindly follow anything posted in the thread that is...
Haha..OK Mr. Expert TA. You attacked a member for simply posting his views and forecast. I called you out for being a dick. Simple as that. If you want to offer a critique of someone's analysis, there are better ways of doing so. Would you like it if someone told you your analysis was bad and an "insult"?
  • #778
  • Mar 4, 2015 1:55pm Mar 4, 2015 1:55pm
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} How can you trust the forecast when he can't even correctly draw the channel, support and target? Did you not see that? Do you still think it's useful when all the key information in the forecast isn't valid? The difference between you and me is I be able to tell when something smells funny. But, can you? Calling someone jackass isn't get you anywhere, bud.
How do you know it is not correct? You think TA always fits in perfectly with the market? THAT is not reality!

Bottom line is there is nothing unrealistic about his projected path of movement. It might be completely wrong, but it is not unrealistic and certainly not an insult.
  • #779
  • Edited 2:58pm Mar 4, 2015 1:59pm | Edited 2:58pm
Like I said, I am welcome if your debate is constructive and have solid ground to support.

Using the samples above, when someone put up an analysis with such sloppy and irresponsible finish which could possibly lead to one losing money in GZ, I simply just do not let that get pass my guard.

When someone tries to forecast for the next 12 months when he can't even correctly draw the basics indicators, to me, it's almost insulting the TA sector within this industry. That's when I said its "insulting".

Was I being a dick? Or doing a favorite for you by pining out these errors?
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #780
  • Mar 4, 2015 2:05pm Mar 4, 2015 2:05pm
Quoting FXSayWhat
Like I said, I am welcome if your debate is constructive and have solid ground to support. Using the samples above, when someone put up an analysis with such sloppy and irresponsible finish which could possibly lead to one losing money in GZ, I simply just do not let that get pass my guard. When someone tries to forecast for the next 12 months when he can't even draw the basics inductors, to me, it's almost insulting the TA sector within this industry. That's when I said its "insulting". Was I being a dick? Or doing a favorite for you?
Please. I reeeeally doubt anyone else is using his forecast. I'm not going to argue this with you all afternoon. There is absolutely nothing wrong with what he posted.

If you feel so strongly about this, then please tell us why his forecast is such an insult to TA.
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