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  • #361
  • Jan 23, 2015 4:22am Jan 23, 2015 4:22am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Looks like we should probably be looking for small specs to be at 10k-20k longs... probably not too relevant though. I do think we're getting closer to the bottom.. somewhere in the 2's...
Yes, there are "ideal" situations, but they don't necessarily have to be present as you correctly assumed. What is clear at the moment, is that the stress level on the bearish side of the market is becomming very large... Large Specs are hevily bearish, making large profits on this downtrend. Profits of course materialize only once they close their positions. Now we all know what that will mean --> buying will start to begin.
  • #362
  • Jan 23, 2015 4:32am Jan 23, 2015 4:32am
Quoting Dunstan
{quote} Yes, there are "ideal" situations, but they don't necessarily have to be present as you correctly assumed. What is clear at the moment, is that the stress level on the bearish side of the market is becomming very large... Large Specs are hevily bearish, making large profits on this downtrend. Profits of course materialize only once they close their positions. Now we all know what that will mean --> buying will start to begin.
Cotton also another one I'm looking at for a massive massive long term move coming in the next months/years. Can you share a chart/analyze that?
  • #363
  • Jan 23, 2015 5:59am Jan 23, 2015 5:59am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Cotton also another one I'm looking at for a massive massive long term move coming in the next months/years. Can you share a chart/analyze that?

Yes, I have to aggree again... We may need to wait for another few months, maybe even one or two year even (!), but judging by it's history, we should expect a move higher /or we can re-phrase it and also say: we shouldn't expect prices to go much deeper from here. Again, patience is a crutial factor to be successful with the trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report2_Cotton.png Size: 129 KB
  • #364
  • Jan 23, 2015 8:32am Jan 23, 2015 8:32am
traders don't matter.. what the banks and gov do is what matters. traders don't have enough $ to move the market for years in 1 direction.. only gov sponsored enterprises do
  • #365
  • Jan 26, 2015 5:30am Jan 26, 2015 5:30am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Swiss Franc
COT Change (52W) / C – 40%, LS – 40%, SS - 36% /
Are we surprised? We shouldn’t be… So we have a huge cot change signal, bearish one. I’d say it may not be the best time to act on it

USD Index
COT Extreme /C, LS, SS – All Time COT extreme /
Although we have the largest cot extreme in USD Index history, due to its special nature, I’d have to repeat what I said for CHF, we have to be careful. I would not be surprised at all to see even greater extremes and parallel much higher prices. I’m not saying it will happen, I’m just warning you, it can happen.

Rough Rice
COT Extreme /C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Waiting for the market to react to this signal. We have had this extreme present for many months now… are we going to have to wait even more? Maybe, but one thing is clear: we will eventually reach a bottom and see this all time cot extreme signal take it’s effect.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report3_Rough Rice.png Size: 130 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report3_USD Index.png Size: 135 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report3_CHF.png Size: 147 KB
  • #366
  • Jan 30, 2015 11:36pm Jan 30, 2015 11:36pm
Quoting Dunstan
wooops... forgot the chart, my bad {image}
Is this the most bullish commercials have ever been on Natural Gas? I hope it keeps coming down to the 2.0 level, this will be one of the great investments iMO.
  • #367
  • Feb 3, 2015 5:21am Feb 3, 2015 5:21am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Is this the most bullish commercials have ever been on Natural Gas? I hope it keeps coming down to the 2.0 level, this will be one of the great investments iMO.
Hi Ck87,

I have attached a chart showing you the full cot history for Natural Gas. As you may see, we are not that far away from all time extreme leves in case of Commercials and LS.

All the best,
Dunstan
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report4_NG.png Size: 143 KB
  • #368
  • Feb 3, 2015 5:38am Feb 3, 2015 5:38am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Cocoa
COT Change (52W) / C – 41%, LS – 36%, SS - 49% /
The two main cot signals pointing in opposite direction. On one hand, we have a pretty large change in Traders positions, suggesting a move upwards… in the near term it may easily happen, but if we look at the wider picture, we can see that not too long ago, we has a major bearish cot extreme signal. I believe it is still active and we should be expecting lower prices to come.

Soybeans
COT Extreme /LS - 434 report COT extreme /
The cot extreme is once again widening as prices have started to decline. The big question of course is whether or not the support level close to 900 will hold. If prices are unable to penetrate the level, I would say that the recent cot extreme signal will dominate and we should expect the rally to continue.

Silver
COT Extreme /C – 225, LS - 361 report COT extreme /
Such a large cot extreme at so low prices… interesting. It definitely underlines that we shouldn’t be expecting higher prices any time soon…

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report4_Silver.png Size: 137 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report4_Soybeans.png Size: 135 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report4_Cocoa.png Size: 144 KB
  • #369
  • Feb 8, 2015 10:50pm Feb 8, 2015 10:50pm
Quoting Dunstan
Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Cocoa COT Change (52W) / C – 41%, LS – 36%, SS - 49% / The two main cot signals pointing in opposite direction. On one hand, we have a pretty large change in Traders positions, suggesting a move upwards… in the near term it may easily happen, but if we look at the wider picture, we can see that not too long ago, we has a major bearish cot extreme signal. I believe it is still active and we should be expecting lower prices to come. Soybeans COT Extreme...
Yep the recent gold/silver COT extremes were extremely accurate..
  • #370
  • Feb 11, 2015 5:21am Feb 11, 2015 5:21am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. (sorry for being late a bit)

Dow Jones-30
COT Change (52W) / C – 33%, LS – 31% /
COT Extreme /SS – All Time COT extreme /
Both of our main cot signals are pointing downwards… we have a bearish cot change signal (larger changes in Traders positions) and an all time cot extreme in Small Speculators positions (SS have never been so optimistic about this market).

Heating Oil
COT Extreme /LS – All Time COT extreme /
We, who use cot analysis in our trading just love these situations! The picture is so clear that it is hard add to it anything… Stress levels in Heating Oil have once again reached all time levels, thus we can expect an ending to this decline (and judging from last week’s performance, we it may already be the case (?)).

Natural Gas
COT Extreme /C – 200, LS - 200 report COT extreme /
We may not have such an obvious case as in Heating Oil, but there is no question about the extreme present in this market. We may just need to be a bit more careful here and take into consideration the possibility of further increase in the cot extreme, which of course would most probably come together with further declining prices.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report5_Natural Gas.png Size: 239 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report5_Heating Oil.png Size: 275 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report5_Dow Jones-30.png Size: 259 KB
  • #371
  • Feb 16, 2015 5:45am Feb 16, 2015 5:45am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Soybean Meal
COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS – 22% /
The cot change signal is bullish and so is the cot extreme signal. Although we cannot talk about a very large cot extreme, we can see that in the past 2-3 years these relative extremes were good at signaling changes in the market.

Heating Oil
COT Extreme /LS – All Time COT extreme /
After witnessing a >20% increase in prices in the last 2 weeks it is becoming clear that our beautiful cot extreme signal is effective again!

Copper
COT Extreme /LS – All Time COT extreme /
What a beautiful cot extreme, isn’t it? There’s not much that I can add here… the picture says it all…

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report6_Copper.png Size: 245 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report6_Heating Oil.png Size: 183 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report6_Soybean Meal.png Size: 260 KB
  • #372
  • Feb 24, 2015 8:37am Feb 24, 2015 8:37am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Nasdaq-100
COT Change (52W) / C – 23%, LS – 37%, SS – 31% /
Mainly the cot change signal that can help us this week: LS increasing their net long positions, C their net short positions rapidly. We can only talk about a larger cot extreme in case of SS, who are pretty optimistic about the market right now.

Japanese Yen
COT Extreme /LS – 117 report COT extreme /
The 117 report extreme we have in LS positions can be considered a relative bearish extreme, but if we look at the wider horizon here, you can see that the cot picture is rather bullish.

Lean Hogs
COT Extreme /C, LS – 92 report COT extreme /
On a longer chart it is clearly visible that we are not that close to all time bullish extreme levels yet in the report, but still, the level of extreme we have is reasonably large. We should be watching this market in the next couple of weeks, months, I think there is great potential here.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report7_Lean Hogs.png Size: 117 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report7_Japanese Yen.png Size: 122 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report7_Nasdaq-100.png Size: 130 KB
  • #373
  • Mar 2, 2015 4:42am Mar 2, 2015 4:42am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

S&P-500
COT Change (52W) / C – 30%, LS – 32% /
No extreme and a bullish cot change signal = the rally can continue

Japanese Yen
COT Extreme /LS – 118 report COT extreme /
Not much has happened since last week. The extreme is reasonably bearish on the last 2-3 years interval, but unquestionably bullish on a longer time horizon.

Oats
COT Extreme /C – 249, LS – 107 report COT extreme /
Now here we got a good signal! Just look at the chart and you’ll see Commercials are long, SS and LS are short --> that is an unquestionable bullish extreme!

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report8_Oats.png Size: 237 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report8_Japanese Yen.png Size: 244 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report8_S&P-500.png Size: 253 KB
  • #374
  • Mar 2, 2015 7:36am Mar 2, 2015 7:36am
Hi Dunstan,

How you define an extreme position for the COT reports.

I'm interested in two things:
-trend reversal
-trend continuation

Can you tell either apart from your analysis.?
  • #375
  • Mar 3, 2015 4:33am Mar 3, 2015 4:33am
Quoting verv
Hi Dunstan, How you define an extreme position for the COT reports. I'm interested in two things: -trend reversal -trend continuation Can you tell either apart from your analysis.?
Hi verv,

Generally speaking, an extreme net position exists, when a Trader category builds up such amount of short or long positions that have not existed for a very long time. Now one may ask, what counts for “very long time”… that is something to be looked at, once you analyze a specific market. This can be different from market to market. I usually recommend looking at least on a five year long chart, because the extremes become “visible” on such a scale.

Trend reversals logically happen, when we have a cot extreme in the market. If we do not have one, we can easily assume the opposite: trend continuation. Another very good method for this is to simply follow Large Specs --> if they cross the net 0 line upwards (= they become net long), then it is advised to be long. The opposite is also true of course. But be advised, since cot charts are not derivatives of price, we have to look at markets separately... one rule that works for corn may not be good in case of CHF for example

Check out these videos if you have some time, they may be helpful too.

All the best,
Dunstan
  • #376
  • Mar 3, 2015 8:20am Mar 3, 2015 8:20am
Quoting Dunstan
{quote} Hi verv, Generally speaking, an extreme net position exists, when a Trader category builds up such amount of short or long positions that have not existed for a very long time. Now one may ask, what counts for very long time that is something to be looked at, once you analyze a specific market. This can be different from market to market. I usually recommend looking at least on a five year long chart, because the extremes become visible on such a scale. Trend reversals logically happen, when we have a cot extreme in the market. If we do...

Thanks Dunstan,

That makes sense to me, and what I was initally thinking.

I was reading someone else who said to pay attention to the commercials, but as a trader (trend follower) that doesn't really make sense to me, because the commercials are hedging. I can see how commercial extremes might warn of a trend reversal though.

I will check out those videos you post later.

Thanks again
  • #377
  • Mar 3, 2015 11:06pm Mar 3, 2015 11:06pm
Quoting Dunstan
{quote} Hi verv, Generally speaking, an extreme net position exists, when a Trader category builds up such amount of short or long positions that have not existed for a very long time. Now one may ask, what counts for very long time that is something to be looked at, once you analyze a specific market. This can be different from market to market. I usually recommend looking at least on a five year long chart, because the extremes become visible on such a scale. Trend reversals logically happen, when we have a cot extreme in the market. If we do...
Looks like coffee has been dumped hard (as expected) any thoughts on that market/ long term COT chart you can post here? Can clearly see commercials becoming more bullish ..
  • #378
  • Mar 4, 2015 11:27pm Mar 4, 2015 11:27pm
Quoting verv
{quote} Thanks Dunstan, That makes sense to me, and what I was initally thinking. I was reading someone else who said to pay attention to the commercials, but as a trader (trend follower) that doesn't really make sense to me, because the commercials are hedging. I can see how commercial extremes might warn of a trend reversal though. I will check out those videos you post later. Thanks again
No problem, I'm glad if I could help!

All the best,
Dunstan
  • #379
  • Mar 4, 2015 11:38pm Mar 4, 2015 11:38pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Looks like coffee has been dumped hard (as expected) any thoughts on that market/ long term COT chart you can post here? Can clearly see commercials becoming more bullish ..
Hi Ck87,

I have posted a coffee chart for you. You are right, this decline did not come unexpected at all. It is a good question though: how long can this go on for? Well, judging by the cot report, we may easily state that to have a strong bullish extreme in the market, we would like Commercials to reach net long level of 20-25000 contracts minimum, and of course opposite for Large Speculators, meaning minimum of 20-25000 contracts net short. Even at these levels, we cannot be sure that we have reached a bottom, because if you look at the chart, you can see that we were at such levels for over a year before eventually prices hit a bottom (indicated with a green line on the chart). So for now, I'd stay on the side lines, or if you were "clever enough" to go short last year, I'd say: stay in it!

I hope this was helpful to you!

All the best,
Dunstan
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report8_Coffee.png Size: 96 KB
  • #380
  • Mar 9, 2015 5:32am Mar 9, 2015 5:32am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Soybean Oil
COT Change (52W) / C – 30%, LS – 32% /
Not a market that I suggest to you now… Reasons: COT Change signal coming a bit late (prices have already dropped since the report date (last week Tuesday)) and the cot extreme situation isn’t that clear either… Of course if any of you have different view, my ears are open

Lumber
COT Extreme /C – All Time, LS – 1247 report COT extreme /
Now here’s a “WOW Situation” All market players are at their extremes, we have a good track record of successful cot extreme signals from the past… any questions?

Orange Juice
COT Extreme /C – 601, LS – 596 report COT extreme /
I could only repeat what I just wrote for Lumber!! We have a similarly bullish picture here as well!

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report9_OJ.png Size: 249 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report9_Lumber.png Size: 256 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report9_Soybean Oil.png Size: 270 KB
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