Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 270 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #5,381
  • Edited 4:49pm Feb 23, 2015 8:43am | Edited 4:49pm
Alfonso, thanks for the motivational video , and the ones on the first post - they are good for life - not just trading - I showed them to my kids also.
Here is my analysis on Silver, comments by anyone are welcome.
Monthly Down
Weekly - bearish Consolidation
Daily -Down
4 Hr - down
overall bias is down so shorts is the way to go. The 4 hr zone I am looking at is nested within a daily zone, a weekly CP and there is confluence with the Monthly descending trendline.
Monthly
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Weekly
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Daily
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4hr
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  • #5,382
  • Feb 24, 2015 1:11am Feb 24, 2015 1:11am
I closed by short on AUD/NZD for a nice profit because of this D1 accummulation and descending TL broken, very low in the curve as well, price could start rallying and taking away my profit.

We can see the picture of balance on AUD/NZD, very low in the curve we see the descending D1 trendline broken and 2 consecutive D1 candles (possibly 3 at the end of the day) opening and closing at the same price, complete balance. We talked on last live webinar that the D1 Supply zone was not high odds because of how low in the curve it was. So far it's holding but the D1 accummulation happening right below it seems to have price trying to rally higher.

Potential D1 CP DZ if it breaks higher and takes out D1 continuation pattern supply zone. D1 20 EMA right above and not tested.

On H4 we have a H4 demand zone that is already playing out.

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,383
  • Feb 24, 2015 1:13am Feb 24, 2015 1:13am
Quoting Fatyflathead
Alfonso, thanks for the motivational video , and the ones on the first post - they are good for life - not just trading - I showed them to my kids also. Here is my analysis on Silver, comments by anyone are welcome. Monthly Down Weekly - bearish Consolidation Daily -Down 4 Hr - down overall bias is down so shorts is the way to go. The 4 hr zone I am looking at is nested within a daily zone, a weekly CP and there is confluence with the Monthly descending trendline. Monthly{image} Weekly {image} Daily {image} 4hr {image}
Silver has a similar look to gold, they normally go hand by hand. WK DZ has almost been hit, WK in an uptrend. Trying to get short under this scenario is not high odds. The WK TL needs to be correctly painted, it's not connecting the second valley correctly.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,384
  • Feb 24, 2015 2:11am Feb 24, 2015 2:11am
hi there, m into supply and demand almost 3 mths now n i've been going though some of ur videos so far. n m glad i've found u. m getting there bit by bit as there r tons to learn. thanks for ur sharing. i'm not able to find it yet in ur thread so i'll just ask. if there r 2 supply areas and 2 demand areas in ur higher time frame, where should i measure my high-low curve from? the proximal lines of the outer areas of supply and demand or the inner areas of supply and demand?
much appreciated.
  • #5,385
  • Feb 24, 2015 2:41am Feb 24, 2015 2:41am
Quoting godunk99
hi there, m into supply and demand almost 3 mths now n i've been going though some of ur videos so far. n m glad i've found u. m getting there bit by bit as there r tons to learn. thanks for ur sharing. i'm not able to find it yet in ur thread so i'll just ask. if there r 2 supply areas and 2 demand areas in ur higher time frame, where should i measure my high-low curve from? the proximal lines of the outer areas of supply and demand or the inner areas of supply and demand? much appreciated.
Thanks for your kind message, glad you have found supply and demand.

Could you please post that scenario with a screenshot? Once you do it I will comment on it and we can go from there!

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,386
  • Feb 24, 2015 2:44am Feb 24, 2015 2:44am
I wanted to update on the GBP/JPY scenario we saw in last live webinar. As we discussed and analyzed on it, GBP/JPY had a long bias, it broke even higher. Still holding the 2 live long trades I showed you in the analysis, the exact reasons were explained in the webinar, bigger picture is up, so longs is the way to go. Similar on other cross yen pairs.

Cheers,
Alfonso

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,387
  • Feb 24, 2015 2:46am Feb 24, 2015 2:46am
Let's do it a little bit different. Anybody can post a long term top down analysis on USD/CAD? We'd need Monthly, Weekly and Daily timeframes at least.

Looking forward to your analysis.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,388
  • Feb 24, 2015 6:40am Feb 24, 2015 6:40am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Thanks for your kind message, glad you have found supply and demand. Could you please post that scenario with a screenshot? Once you do it I will comment on it and we can go from there! Cheers, Alfonso
thank you for ur reply. m really appreciated.
here's the confusion dat i got. m really new and trying. this is not the only confusion dat i have, and m ready for any advice and guidance regarding any mistakes that these pictures show. thanks again. by the way m using D1 for my curve and trend and H1 for my execution.

1st pic. should i measure my curve from the outer supply and demand areas or
2nd pic. should i draw it from the inner (or the latest areas) supply n demand zone?

https://charts.mql5.com/7/95/gbpusdm...ness-ltd-3.png

https://charts.mql5.com/7/95/gbpusdm...ness-ltd-4.png
  • #5,389
  • Edited 10:15am Feb 24, 2015 7:29am | Edited 10:15am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Silver has a similar look to gold, they normally go hand by hand. WK DZ has almost been hit, WK in an uptrend. Trying to get short under this scenario is not high odds. The WK TL needs to be correctly painted, it's not connecting the second valley correctly. Cheers, Alfonso
Thanks Alfonso, originally I took the second valley Fractal dot of the WK TL , would it have been better to draw it like this?
Attached Image



regarding the USD/CAD i'll avail of the opportunity to post an analysis, as it helps me learn.

Monthly ( I don't have 3 month) , Monthly is up and is at supply in control with a reaction, there is 2 levels of supply overhead. The overhead supply CP took out a demand level on the left which caused the break of the descending TL , and the top level of supply acquires it by inheritance.
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Weekly is up and also at a level of supply and has confluence with the 20EMA
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Daily is also up and also at supply in control, it broke the aggressive TL as we had 3 cp's (is that TL valid?) and made a lower high- probably taking a pause before it attempts to push through supply. so overall the bias is UP and longs are the way to go but we need to be careful about the overhead supply on the monthly.
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  • #5,390
  • Feb 25, 2015 1:31am Feb 25, 2015 1:31am
Weekly demand zone is in control in GOLD, WK ascedning TL confluence and in an uptrend, shorts is not high odds.

IF price takes out opposing D1 supply zone, we could have some longs happening. Shorting against a WK DZ and WK uptrend is not a high odds scenario.

The weekly demand zone is the zone that was created after the descending Weekly trendline was broken.

Shorts is lower odds now on gold

Cheers,
Alfonso

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,391
  • Feb 25, 2015 2:41am Feb 25, 2015 2:41am
See how bigger timeframe supply and demand zones hold and control on 3 months and 6 months imbalances.

Below you'll see UK100 Footsie Index. This index is breaking higher above all time highs. 3M and 6M SZ is being taken out.

3M DZ is in control now and was the one that caused the removal all all time highs.

Long term bias is long

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,392
  • Feb 25, 2015 2:43am Feb 25, 2015 2:43am
Quoting Fatyflathead
{quote} Thanks Alfonso, originally I took the second valley Fractal dot of the WK TL , would it have been better to draw it like this? regarding the USD/CAD i'll avail of the opportunity to post an analysis, as it helps me learn. Monthly ( I don't have 3 month) , Monthly is up and is at supply in control with a reaction, there is 2 levels of supply overhead. The overhead supply CP took out a demand level on the left which caused the break of the descending TL , and the top level of supply acquires it by inheritance. {image} Weekly is up and also...
USD/CAD is ranging on the D1, MN SZ is in control, there could be some counter trend shorts if D1 DZ is taken out, too high now for high odds longs. Looks like price needs fresh buyers from lower before attackig the MN SZ to try to take it out.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,393
  • Feb 25, 2015 2:47am Feb 25, 2015 2:47am
Quoting godunk99
{quote} thank you for ur reply. m really appreciated. here's the confusion dat i got. m really new and trying. this is not the only confusion dat i have, and m ready for any advice and guidance regarding any mistakes that these pictures show. thanks again. by the way m using D1 for my curve and trend and H1 for my execution. 1st pic. should i measure my curve from the outer supply and demand areas or 2nd pic. should i draw it from the inner (or the latest areas) supply n demand zone? {image} {image}
The curve is measured from valleys and peaks when price is trending on the TF you are measuring it.
CPs are not used to measure the curve unless they are on the trending side, that is, if D1 is up and there are D1 CPs, those CPs are used to measure the curve. Once the TL is broken, you need to lean on valleys and peaks.

Hope it makes sense.
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,394
  • Feb 25, 2015 4:25am Feb 25, 2015 4:25am
BRENT has a 3 months consolidation. See how the bigger picture trend and zones are always there and when it takes control, it's unstoppable

6 months DZ is in in control. Non fresh 3M DZ is now in control, second retest. Brand new imbalance (not 3M DZ was created right at the first retest and now holding.

6M DZ in control, price looks like getting ready to rally and have a bigger retracement after such a strong drop

Potential longs, going short for a longer term now is not a good idea

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,395
  • Feb 25, 2015 9:37am Feb 25, 2015 9:37am
Hello Alfonso and fellow traders,

hope everyone is doing great, here is my USDCAD top down analysis.

3 Months: is up with very strong bullish momentum

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1 Month: is up and currently reacting to monthly SZ which is in control.

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Weekly: is up and currently reacting to Weekly SZ which is nested with Monthly SZ in control.

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Daily: is up but loosing upside momentum.

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everything is up so long is way to go. for CT shorts on USDCAD wait for the break of TL and confirmation of fresh SZ on daily. but i would go long only on weekly fresh DZ which is nested with daily DZ and thats also a 50% of Monthly curve.
  • #5,396
  • Feb 25, 2015 1:43pm Feb 25, 2015 1:43pm
AUDUSD is on potential sell, below is the long term report/analysis of audusd.

1-Year still UP

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6 Months out of align and down.

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3 Months also down and out of align.

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All the trends are down, except 1year, and the 0.7055 is the proximal line which is nested with yearly, 6m and 3m DZ.
  • #5,397
  • Feb 25, 2015 4:00pm Feb 25, 2015 4:00pm
Quoting Solomon1a
AUDUSD is on potential sell, below is the long term report/analysis of audusd. 1-Year still UP {image} 6 Months out of align and down. {image} 3 Months also down and out of align. {image} All the trends are down, except 1year, and the 0.7055 is the proximal line which is nested with yearly, 6m and 3m DZ.
Yes, bigger picture is down and still lots of room to drop, what AUD/USD is doing now on the daily will most likely be a correction before it creates another impulse down towards bigger timeframe demand.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,398
  • Feb 26, 2015 3:40am Feb 26, 2015 3:40am
Triggered short on a H4 supply zone on EUR/AUD. H4 TL being respected, D1 is down and lots of room to drop. Will be managing my SL tightly on this one if price does not break lower than last week lows


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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,399
  • Feb 26, 2015 3:57am Feb 26, 2015 3:57am
Hi,

Does anyone have indicator that's good to draw trendline as theory of SD?
Thanks!
  • #5,400
  • Feb 26, 2015 4:55am Feb 26, 2015 4:55am
Quoting DoHung
Hi, Does anyone have indicator that's good to draw trendline as theory of SD? Thanks!
Drawing TL is crucial and very important part of trading, and i dont think that any indicator can perform this perfectly.
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