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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #52,021
  • Feb 18, 2015 10:06am Feb 18, 2015 10:06am
Quoting alexandria
Hey Phil... I want to ask you a dumb question.... did you trade cable long today before the news.... I did but not sure if wise approach or not... thinking all good news before it and good news most likely and if news goes against me just flip stronger after initial push of say m1 the other way.. but it did not go against. Just not sure if that is wise approach or not... guess just need more experience to learn. If you wait until after news not sure when you hit it... maybe just when you feel that candle push or PB as we discussed before. Regards...

Hi Alexandria

No, i did not trade the gbp news, was ready to (after release) but we are looking after my granddaughter (age 2+) for a week and she would not leave me alone at that time, so my attention was drawn away by something even more demanding than forex .

i normally wait until i see the figures, but sometimes with real market movers i do say go long G/U and have some short A/U before the news..... if USD move/news. if market bounces around and i see figures are favorable long G/U..... i will dump A/U at as near to b/e as i think i can get.......if it moves and keeps going i may choose to rescue later, dump some and rescue or just dump and offset against my G/U (depend on move and feel)........ there is one other option i use but i only use it when VERY confident the market will go a certain way and continue to do so, that is to at least double the entry in the opposite direction/flip the trade on the wrong side.

mostly i wait for the release though and either join the move or pass on it, it often retraces some and continues or takes a while to filter through, take the recent news releases for the USD and the CAD, to me they shouted SHORT U/C...all bad usd and good cad figures..... and i am....but it is only just now filtering into the market...maybe someone big was long and had to get out , i do not care, i was looking for a short there and now i have it. (is ok now.... my granddaughter is out with my wife for a while).

3 hours to FOMC minutes.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #52,022
  • Feb 18, 2015 10:47am Feb 18, 2015 10:47am
Quoting phil13
{quote} i did not trade the gbp news
Thanks my friend for kind reply.

Ahhh what fun......you'll be knackered then.. have a great week.. us girls love our granda's ...I did mine what a great guy he was. Stiff drinks all round when little one gets to bed.

Thanks for reply... great help.

Yeh FOMC due later....

Regards

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,023
  • Feb 19, 2015 9:43am Feb 19, 2015 9:43am
Happy Lunar New Year to FTI & All.

Have a Mehhhry Good Year!

Gong Xi Gong Xi
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #52,024
  • Feb 20, 2015 9:56am Feb 20, 2015 9:56am
Happy, Healthy and Prosperous Lunar New Year to Fti and all who celebrates this special occasion!!!!!

regards,

zz
  • #52,025
  • Feb 21, 2015 11:07am Feb 21, 2015 11:07am
happy chinese new year! wishing all good health always !
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THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #52,026
  • Feb 22, 2015 7:38pm Feb 22, 2015 7:38pm
last time no $ buy football ... tin can also can

regards,

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  • #52,027
  • Feb 23, 2015 4:52am Feb 23, 2015 4:52am
Quoting trad8
last time no $ buy football ... tin can also can regards, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Un_HgZ512FU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3XSEDob6ETI

I loved top cat... although this is not so funny...
and the news/rumour game was ongoing this morning...maybe they are trying to get the money back that way....


Regards
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,028
  • Feb 23, 2015 5:13am Feb 23, 2015 5:13am
cable w5 done... I think

Regards
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,029
  • Feb 23, 2015 5:57am Feb 23, 2015 5:57am
Quoting alexandria
cable w5 done... I think Regards
Hi Alexandria

good morning.

am watching cable myself for possible longs, a bit early for me atm there..... for me my reason is it is near beginning of last H4 impulse (H4 showing this being the w4 in retrace) and lower (pips) push/thrust up than the previous wave (possible topping/losing power as slowing but as yet no equal and opposite reaction)... in my view.

had some N/U long and just finished there for now, scouting U/C for shorts as well at this level.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #52,030
  • Feb 23, 2015 6:03am Feb 23, 2015 6:03am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi Alexandria good morning. am watching cable myself for possible longs, a bit early for me atm there..... for me my reason is it is near beginning of last H4 impulse (H4 showing this being the w4 in retrace) and lower (pips) push/thrust up than the previous wave (possible topping/losing power as slowing but as yet no equal and opposite reaction)... in my view. had some N/U long and just finished there for now, scouting U/C for shorts as well at this level. regards Phil.
Hi my friend...hope you had a great time with family..

Been shorting on feel this morning and trend but out now. I was thinking of cable long but then it became clear that this was wrong way to go. They put out some nice news to help the shorts..... I am not very good at trading more than 1 pair so trying to get better at that... do get mixed up as to when I am best trading gbp or eur using dollar or using eur/gbp but am getting there.... need more experience for sure.

Eur went to its obvious spot too... painfully a bit

Regards
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,031
  • Feb 23, 2015 6:20am Feb 23, 2015 6:20am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Hi my friend...hope you had a great time with family.. Been shorting on feel this morning and trend but out now. I was thinking of cable long but then it became clear that this was wrong way to go. They put out some nice news to help the shorts..... I am not very good at trading more than 1 pair so trying to get better at that... do get mixed up as to when I am best trading gbp or eur using dollar or using eur/gbp but am getting there.... need more experience for sure. Eur went to its obvious spot too... painfully a bit Regards
Hi Alexandria

yes, thank you my friend i had a nice time looking after my granddaughter for 9 days my wife took her home this morning so things can get back to normal now.

as i have said i do not like trading against last impulse (using M15/H4) and for me we where to near start of H4 impulse for shorts, but that is just my preference from my own experience and not everybodies the same, well done grabbing short pow's there this morning .

am watching the cable retrace now (m15/5) to try to see possible intention.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #52,032
  • Feb 23, 2015 8:12am Feb 23, 2015 8:12am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi Alexandria yes, thank you my friend i had a nice time looking after my granddaughter for 9 days my wife took her home this morning so things can get back to normal now. as i have said i do not like trading against last impulse (using M15/H4) and for me we where to near start of H4 impulse for shorts, but that is just my preference from my own experience and not everybodies the same, well done grabbing short pow's there this morning . am watching the cable retrace now (m15/5) to try to see possible intention. regards...

I agree with what you are saying....I was getting ready for the long too (did not take it tho' felt a bit weird so had a rest) but I was going with feel and there were clear signs for me of what to do with feel/flow... did not want to get on wrong bus. Nice long now.. not in it tho' ... gonna have a rest.

Thanks so much for pointing out your view of it though as that has been useful to me in my learning as I have been wondering a bit about that ... you know when I expect long but still going short... I used to be tempted to get in way too early with bias. ....the bias thing is a bleep bleep... starting to get that feeling now and overcame that today sort of.


Hope FTI is doing ok. Maybe had nice Chinese holiday.


Regards
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,033
  • Feb 23, 2015 8:16am Feb 23, 2015 8:16am
finished with G/U now ..... looks to be struggling to push much higher for now.

U/C starting to go my way now.... may add more if retrace allows/shows possibilities in my favour..

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #52,034
  • Feb 23, 2015 8:26am Feb 23, 2015 8:26am
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THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #52,035
  • Feb 23, 2015 8:29am Feb 23, 2015 8:29am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} I agree with what you are saying....I was getting ready for the long too (did not take it tho' felt a bit weird so had a rest) but I was going with feel and there were clear signs for me of what to do with feel/flow... did not want to get on wrong bus. Nice long now.. not in it tho' ... gonna have a rest. Thanks so much for pointing out your view of it though as that has been useful to me in my learning as I have been wondering a bit about that ... you know when I expect long but still going short... I used to be tempted to get in way too...
Hi Alexandria

we both done the right thing at the right time and made pips that is all that really matters.

i use the impulse thing to control my bias i suppose, i do not mind sometimes not being able to find trades in my direction, i find it stops me from flipping my trades to often or constantly changing direction when the candles get confusing for me.

i read somewhere that someone (cannot remember who) said that once they gave up chasing the first and last part of a move trading became so much easier and less stressful. something i have found myself to be true for me.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #52,036
  • Feb 23, 2015 8:44am Feb 23, 2015 8:44am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi Alexandria we were both right and made pips that is all that really matters. i use the impulse thing to control my bias i suppose, i do not mind sometimes not being able to find trades in my direction, i find it stops me from flipping my trades to often or constantly changing direction when the candles get confusing for me. i read somewhere that someone (cannot remember who) said that once they gave up chasing the first and last part of a move trading became so much easier and less stressful. something i have found myself to be true...

I love that expression as I have been thinking about that too....the first is always gonna be very hard terrain as they play games with you (long or short)(FTI says it in thread) - they are not gonna make it easy... and last well somehow I find that easier to see..... I find end of down moves easier to fathom than up moves for some reason but now getting better at up stuff end too. This is all hard work mind. I realise more and more why FTI goes on and on about feel.

I do find it hard still to work out if I want to go with euro or cable.... there is loads more to learn and experience... take it slowly as FTI told me.

Well done for today ......
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,037
  • Feb 23, 2015 10:32am Feb 23, 2015 10:32am
out of U/C now.... calling it a day now.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #52,038
  • Feb 25, 2015 8:46am Feb 25, 2015 8:46am
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THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #52,039
  • Edited 10:07am Feb 25, 2015 9:04am | Edited 10:07am
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regards
  • #52,040
  • Feb 26, 2015 12:49am Feb 26, 2015 12:49am
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regards
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