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Price is everything

  • #29,701
  • Feb 19, 2015 12:51pm Feb 19, 2015 12:51pm
with experience and knowledge, one can spot right on this is wisdom from a real successful trader.

new folk simply has to do his own filtering work to determine who's real and who's BS.

Quoting FX.Sniffer
{quote} jmatt, it has gems as well but requires a deep research. Traders helping traders is a never ending quest, this is how the trading knowledge is being transferred from one to another and you can find great tips on forums that you'll never find anywhere else, not even in books. Hey, guess who lurks in here beside retail traders?! Bankers, institutional, etc and they don't even have half the knowledge of an experienced retail trader...believe me or not it's up to you. But lets be realistic as much as the truth may hurts, knowledge is not enough...
  • #29,702
  • Feb 20, 2015 9:01pm Feb 20, 2015 9:01pm
Attached Image
Attached Image




Need to keep things going in PIE
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #29,703
  • Feb 21, 2015 4:52am Feb 21, 2015 4:52am
Quoting Rufus
{image}{image} Need to keep things going in PIE
Rufus,

I am try to click the box, but it doesn't work
I need to finish something i started
  • #29,704
  • Feb 21, 2015 5:09am Feb 21, 2015 5:09am
Just sharing.

My posting is not to show trades and be told "thats after the fact" . It is not the purpose. I woke up Friday morning bleary eyed at 6am (or there abouts), opened the platform on my mobile phone and saw the engulf low, on the return to source i hit sell and went for a shower. Last thing on my mind was to jump on PIE and let you all know how great i am!!! It is irrelevant to me trying to help the group that wish to understand more.

That is not going to help you at all. Hopefully by dissecting and showing the session and how it played out will. I do not need to stroke my own ego!

If this marked out chart triggers the light bulb a bit more, then i am buoyed for you.

What of this down and up move i caught is neither here nor there. What YOU see is the important part.

Regards

Warren

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I need to finish something i started
  • #29,705
  • Feb 21, 2015 5:53am Feb 21, 2015 5:53am
Some interesting questions & answers were raised in a PM to me from a trader in here. Thought i would post them here, my response is in Blue.

You are 100% correct about greed and fear being two huge monsters to defeat while trading. Your posts are really playing an instrumental part in conquering myself. Now to dive into the market, you asked three questions:


1. Who moves the market?
The market is moved by the Institutional Traders.

Yes. around 4 banks control at least 50% of the market, i feel other forces not known publicly are involved too, they move the market. They come together to create a move and then disperse to close out positions solo. How do they know when to join forces? After all they can not call each other , that would be classed as insider trading! So how do they let each other know? ENGULF at strategic points (eg: Supply or Demand)

2. How do they move the market?
They move the market by buying and selling at strategic points. They move price up by buying sell orders, and down by selling to buyers. In order for the market to move, they have to have willing buyers and willing sellers.

They move the market by fooling others into thinking it is going a certain way. While the uninformed is selling into a powerful bearish move , they are taking the opposite position (bandwagon theory) You will see after a move has played out that there has been 2 or 3 very accurate decision points of buying. These guys have massive orders to fill and they want the order filled at wholesale prices

3. Why do they move the market?
They move the market because value changes over time due to inflation and deflation. What may be a good price today may not be a good price tomorrow. What may be overvalued today, may be undervalued today. Price is always considered to be either too cheap or too expensive.

They move the market because they can, to meet their own ends. every swing, engulf , fake out is with purpose and builds to their agenda. News times, session starts create huge volatility, this is used for positioning to fill orders or clear orders (engulf of decision point). These fast markets can disorientate the uninformed. If you look closely the rules still apply, fast, medium or slow markets is irrelevant.

Hope this helps you see another view.

Warren
I need to finish something i started
  • #29,706
  • Feb 21, 2015 6:15am Feb 21, 2015 6:15am
Quoting bigwal
How do they know when to join forces? After all they can not call each other , that would be classed as insider trading! So how do they let each other know? ENGULF at strategic points (eg: Supply or Demand)

You must be joking. You can't really believe what you just said...


I'm not saying that this engulf thing is a total BS, but reality works in a less romantic way.
  • #29,707
  • Feb 21, 2015 6:20am Feb 21, 2015 6:20am
Sharing again...

In the past i use to mark a vertical line at London open to US close. I did this at session close, so i could plot the moves of the day. The first step is seeing the important places "after the fact", marking them up for future reference. Once you see this play out over and over again, this rewires your mind to what is actually happening and starts to form a type of muscle memory. Do this till you are sick to death of it.

I guarantee you will start to see intentions of a move "before the fact"

I love psychology and the huge part it plays.

Good trading all
I need to finish something i started
  • #29,708
  • Feb 21, 2015 6:24am Feb 21, 2015 6:24am
Quoting jmatt35
{quote} You must be joking. You can't really believe what you just said... I'm not saying that this engulf thing is a total BS, but reality works in a less romantic way.

I can believe in what i say 100%

Do you think the market is random?

You can disregard what i say, does not bother me. But it will bother you , everytime you sit down to trade.

I tell you what, just put me on ignore, that will solve your issue.

No offence taken, you are entitled to your opinion.

Warren
I need to finish something i started
  • #29,709
  • Feb 21, 2015 6:28am Feb 21, 2015 6:28am
Quoting jmatt35
{quote} You must be joking. You can't really believe what you just said... I'm not saying that this engulf thing is a total BS, but reality works in a less romantic way.

Oh dear, just looked up your past posts. You are one frustrated individual!

If you have another version of how the market really works, then step up and explain.

We would all love to hear.

Warren
I need to finish something i started
  • #29,710
  • Feb 21, 2015 6:47am Feb 21, 2015 6:47am
Quoting bigwal
Do you think the market is random?
Who said that? But theres no need to invent fairy tales (I think I know where this one is coming from...it's not yours I guess).

Back to reality could rather be placing orders here and there to check the levels strength and try to exploit liquidity vacuum to move further or liquidity pools to load and unload positions and other issues LPs do have while making the market. But again anybody of other big partecipants could at any moment use it to take the other side and load against. Sometimes it works sometimes it won't.
  • #29,711
  • Feb 21, 2015 6:59am Feb 21, 2015 6:59am
Quoting jmatt35
{quote} Who said that? But theres no need to invent fairy tales (I think I know where this one is coming from...it's not yours I guess). Back to reality could rather be placing orders here and there to check the levels strength and try to exploit liquidity vacuum to move further or liquidity pools to load and unload positions and other issues LPs do have while making the market. But again anybody of other big partecipants could at any moment use it to take the other side and load against. Sometimes it works sometimes it won't.

I do not invent fairytales!

Maybe you are right with Moving averages

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I need to finish something i started
  • #29,712
  • Feb 21, 2015 7:06am Feb 21, 2015 7:06am
That stuff was made for dismantle OP BS, didn't you notice it?

I would rather trow a dice than open positions after MA cross close
  • #29,713
  • Feb 21, 2015 7:48am Feb 21, 2015 7:48am
Quoting jmatt35
That stuff was made for dismantle OP BS, didn't you notice it? I would rather trow a dice than open positions after MA cross close
No i am not really giving it the time. Yawnnnnn!

Bored now.

All,

Have a great weekend.

Warren
I need to finish something i started
  • #29,714
  • Feb 21, 2015 8:36am Feb 21, 2015 8:36am
Quoting bigwal
Just sharing. My posting is not to show trades and be told "thats after the fact" . It is not the purpose. I woke up Friday morning bleary eyed at 6am (or there abouts), opened the platform on my mobile phone and saw the engulf low, on the return to source i hit sell and went for a shower. Last thing on my mind was to jump on PIE and let you all know how great i am!!! It is irrelevant to me trying to help the group that wish to understand more. That is not going to help you at all. Hopefully by dissecting and showing the session and how it played...
Hey Warren,
I don't care if posts are before, during, after or with no trade. Your posts make a great deal of sense and your charts are very educational. Thanks dude!
  • #29,715
  • Feb 21, 2015 9:54am Feb 21, 2015 9:54am
Quoting bigwal
Just sharing. My posting is not to show trades and be told "thats after the fact" . It is not the purpose. I woke up Friday morning bleary eyed at 6am (or there abouts), opened the platform on my mobile phone and saw the engulf low, on the return to source i hit sell and went for a shower. Last thing on my mind was to jump on PIE and let you all know how great i am!!! It is irrelevant to me trying to help the group that wish to understand more. That is not going to help you at all. Hopefully by dissecting and showing the session and how it played...
Hi Warren,

Thanks for the example.

I have a question if you don't mind. I am trying to trade the flags with flag pole as a target after the engulf of the flag limit.
In your example you show an engulf of a flag limit which has another flag limit further down (which has not been engulfed at that time). I was always thinking, I had to wait for an engulf of the first FTR (therefore FL) after a break of a level (in this exmple the lower one). Please see my screen shot to better understand what I mean.
Or does it not matter at all and you would take the trade near the source of the engulf?
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  • #29,716
  • Feb 21, 2015 9:59am Feb 21, 2015 9:59am
Quoting bigwal
After all they can not call each other , that would be classed as insider trading! So how do they let each other know?

for a proper explaination I want to quote Darkstar:

"Market Structure:

Now that we have established why the market exists, let’s take a look at how the transactions are facilitated:

The top tier of the Forex market is transacted on what is collectively known as the Interbank. Contrary to popular belief the Interbank is not an exchange; it is a collection of communication agreements between the world’s largest money center banks.

To understand the structure of the Interbank market, it may be easier to grasp by way of analogy. Consider that in an office (or maybe even someone’s home) there are multiple computers connected via a network cable. Each computer operates independently of the others until it needs a resource that another computer possesses. At that point it will contact the other computer and request access to the necessary resource. If the computer is working properly and its owner has given the requestor authorization to do so, the resource can be accessed and the initiating computers request can be fulfilled. By substituting computers for banks and resources for currency, you can easily grasp the relationships that exist on the Interbank.

Anyone who has ever tried to find resources on a computer network without a server can appreciate how difficult it can be to keep track of who has what resources. The same issue exists on the Interbank market with regard to prices and currency inventory. A bank in Singapore may only rarely transact business with a company that needs to exchange some Brazilian Real and it can be very difficult to establish what a proper exchange rate should be. It is for this purpose that EBS and Reuters (hereafter EBS) established their services.

Layered on top (in a manner of speaking) of the Interbank communication links, the EBS service enables banks to see how much and at what prices all the Interbank members are willing to transact. Pains should be taken to express that EBS is not a market or a market maker; it is an application used to see bids and offers from the various banks..."

The banks have the order book we have (nearly) nothing.
  • #29,717
  • Feb 21, 2015 11:10am Feb 21, 2015 11:10am
Quoting MCFly
{quote} ." The banks have the order book we have (nearly) nothing.
Years ago I worked on a house for a Kansas state Football coach. (American Football) They ran six offensive plays with variations within each play. They were run over and over again until they were mastered by every player each having their own responsibility to perform. Once the play was in motion nobody had to check on what they were supposed to be doing; all knew. Here is the kicker..... The coach was so confident in their performance he told me he could give his play book to the opposing team and say "Here try to stop us".

If a football team can operate with such precision I am sure the financial institutions in the Forex market can do as well.....how about better. They have been at the same game for centuries. Just because there wasn't a computer terminal to work from doesn't mean they did not manipulate to their advantage. For example; check on how Nathan Rothschild took over the bank of England in one day. It was an issue of supply and demand with a fake out. Sounds like something Warren just drew on a chart.

They have the playbook and are running six plays. PIE has cracked open the playbook and guys like Warren is showing more detail on how they are run.

“I care not what puppet is placed on the throne of England to rule the Empire. The man who controls Britain’s money supply controls the British Empire and I control the British money supply.” - Nathan Rothschild

“I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated Governments in the civilized world no longer a Government by free opinion, no longer a Government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a Government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men.” – Woodrow Wilson, after signing the Federal Reserve into existence


There is the other team. They have not given us the playbook. They operate with he utmost of precision extracting every cent by every means possible. Countries have disappeared, economies ruined, fortunes lost, etc. because of their actions.

We are taking market share from them. I doubt they like it.

Rufus
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #29,718
  • Feb 21, 2015 1:12pm Feb 21, 2015 1:12pm
Hi everyone, how are you all? its been days I was reading the thread, 1486 are actually many pages to read and diggest fast and maybe I am out of the current topic but I have a little question.

In my weekend readings I have found that US30 is in a meaningful zone as you can see below

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and in the last trading day have made a huge up move.

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I read in the early pages Redsword use to watch this index carefully, I trade mainly US pairs, (EURUSD, AUDUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, NZDUSD,etc) and wonder how this can improve my trading, how this US30 index is correlated to these pairs and where do you guys suggests to find this kind of detailed reading.

Best regards and thanks in advance

Melly.
  • #29,719
  • Feb 21, 2015 2:09pm Feb 21, 2015 2:09pm
Quoting mellyfx
Hi everyone, how are you all? its been days I was reading the thread, 1486 are actually many pages to read and diggest fast and maybe I am out of the current topic but I have a little question. In my weekend readings I have found that US30 is in a meaningful zone as you can see below {image} and in the last trading day have made a huge up move. {image} I read in the early pages Redsword use to watch this index carefully, I trade mainly US pairs, (EURUSD, AUDUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, NZDUSD,etc) and wonder how this can improve my trading, how this US30...
Red would watch the opening of the US equity markets . Big moves in it will cause other currencies to convert to dollars or visa versa to purchase or sell the equities.

I don't watch correlations very much more of a time issue with me. As to where to find more info. a google search will give you more then you would want to know

here is one correlation

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Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #29,720
  • Feb 21, 2015 3:06pm Feb 21, 2015 3:06pm
Quoting Rufus
{quote} Red would watch the opening of the US equity markets . Big moves in it will cause other currencies to convert to dollars or visa versa to purchase or sell the equities. I don't watch correlations very much more of a time issue with me. As to where to find more info. a google search will give you more then you would want to know here is one correlation {image} {image}
Hi, I see, but EURUSD should not be lowing prices?? instead was uptrending... I can't get how you find conrrelations.??
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