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The 3 month demo trading trial - Journey to profitability

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Feb 21, 2015 6:31pm Feb 17, 2015 3:03pm | Edited Feb 21, 2015 6:31pm
This thread is retired - please see Post 31.

Hi Traders!

I'm starting this thread to track progress, and build confidence.

My background - Been trading for over 2 years. I've had some success but not consistent. So many times, I thought I was "there" and realized I'm nowhere near "there" yet. I've experienced more than once - quadrupled my account in a few days, blown my account in a few hours.

Now I'm at the point where I just can't afford to keep giving money to the market. I'm also in a rut where I can't seem to even have 1 day of successful trading. So, I've decided to go back to demo trading. I've never respected demo trading, since it's just not the same as trading with real money. However, I realized recently, I've never traded demo long enough to build any sort of confidence that I can actually trade successfully. So, this thread will simply be to keep track of my trading until I build enough confidence to go back to live trading.

Rules of the thread:
1) The title of the thread, as it implies indicates the plan is to trade demo for 3 months.
2) If account is blown, or money is added to the account, the 3 month period starts over.
3) I'll be adding my trade explorer to my signature to track the progress
4) There won't be much, or maybe even any trading discussions at all, or trading calls in this thread, in fact I probably won't even be posting anything here unless I blow my account, or end the 3 month period successfully. So, the thread is mainly to post my trade explorer, and start the 3 month period, or... hopefully end it, so I can go back to live trading.
5) If you'd like to join me on this journey, and see if you can reach the 3 month goal, welcome. Look forward to seeing your post with your demo trade explorer attached.
6) I won't be policing anyone as to whether they follow the 3 month period rules, so if anyone cheats, it's on them. Only hurting themselves.

Edit: Adding to the above rules, after the 3 month period is over, I'll also need to hit a goal, in terms of profitabilty. The starting balance is $500. After 3 months, I'll need to see the account at least tripled, i.e. $1500. This is assuming an average of 10% return each week. I have goals that are much higher than this, however, this is the minimum goal for this trial, that will give me confidence to go back to live trading.

Happy Trading!
  • #2
  • Feb 17, 2015 3:05pm Feb 17, 2015 3:05pm
My 3-month trial starts...

Actually started yesterday, but close enough, ha ha

...So May 17th will be current target end date for the trial...
  • #3
  • Feb 17, 2015 7:05pm Feb 17, 2015 7:05pm
When I decided to start this thread and 3 month trial, I was in the midst of a draw down on my account, due to over-trading and bad trade management.

I continued that bad trend today, after I started this thread. I was tempted to just start over, since the day isn't even over yet.

But I'm going to try and "rescue" my account from a negative balance. I have 2 open trades, one of them is in green and the only reason the account is not blown yet.

I'm going to try and wait out the trades I'm in. If my profit targets are hit, I'll be back in business and won't have to start over. We'll see...
  • #4
  • Feb 17, 2015 9:08pm Feb 17, 2015 9:08pm
Defeat. I think I psychologically gave up on this account since I started the 3 month trial after I already lost so much. Will be better to start fresh. So, will replenish account to $500. Target $1500 by May 18th...
  • #5
  • Feb 18, 2015 4:12am Feb 18, 2015 4:12am
Hi my friend, wish you the best of luck in these endeavors! 10 % a week is a very high aim, I think 10 % a month is already an excellent result if it can be done on a regular basis. As you know, a lot of people claim to make huge % gains every month but they are usually not around for long or they trade nothing but demo then! A few might be able to make something like 10 % a week, but how many of them are really out there (especially among retailers)?
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #6
  • Edited 9:07am Feb 18, 2015 8:57am | Edited 9:07am
Quoting Hickson
Hi my friend, wish you the best of luck in these endeavors! 10 % a week is a very high aim, I think 10 % a month is already an excellent result if it can be done on a regular basis. As you know, a lot of people claim to make huge % gains every month but they are usually not around for long or they trade nothing but demo then! A few might be able to make something like 10 % a week, but how many of them are really out there (especially among retailers)?
Mr. Hickson!

Thanks for stopping in. Regarding my minimum goal of 10% a week, please consider this:

Let's say 15 trades a week, risking 2% per trade with a 1:5 R:R on average. Further lets say we only win 5 out of 15 trades. That's a 30% increase. Only winning 4 trades out of 15 is still an 18% increase. I believe it's very possible to gain 10-50% per week on average. The problem is over-trading and poor trade management. If I can overcome those bad habits, I strongly believe it is attainable.

And even sometimes, I might find those trades with 10-15 times R:R. That means a single trade can net 10-15 percent. Again, the problem is over-trading and trade management. Once those problems are eliminated, things should fall in to place. Will I be able to eliminate those problems and attain my goals? Time will tell...

Edit: correction - a trade with 1:10-15 R:R would net 20-30% increase, risking 2%
  • #7
  • Feb 18, 2015 9:40am Feb 18, 2015 9:40am
And here's further evidence that 10% a week on average is not really that lofty of a goal. Take my current UJ trade. I entered with a 1.5 pip SL. My target is 62 pips. Thats over 40 times my risk in profit. Even if I get stopped out 10 times, I'm still in at 1:30 R:R. And when it moves in my favor 10-20 pips, I'll move SL to BE, so it'll be a no-risk trade from that point.

If this one trade hits my target, it will double my starting capital ($500). And I only risk 2.5%.
  • #8
  • Feb 18, 2015 10:46am Feb 18, 2015 10:46am
Well... Still need to work on patiently waiting for the good entry. But I think I finally got a good entry on UJ. We'll see if it can break out of the ascending triangle formation and put me back on track. Or, if I'll need to start over again.
  • #9
  • Feb 18, 2015 3:35pm Feb 18, 2015 3:35pm
Barely alive with 2nd attempt. Will try to build it back up. If not "defeat" again.

However, I've started a 3rd attempt already, which will be trading only daily time frame. Both accounts linked to this thread. If I can keep from blowing one or the other, we'll see which works better, either intra-day, or daily trading...
  • #10
  • Feb 18, 2015 3:55pm Feb 18, 2015 3:55pm
Quoting benaiah
Barely alive with 2nd attempt. Will try to build it back up. If not "defeat" again. However, I've started a 3rd attempt already, which will be trading only daily time frame. Both accounts linked to this thread. If I can keep from blowing one or the other, we'll see which works better, either intra-day, or daily trading...
No offence mate, but with 95 % draw down on the first day there must be serious issues with the MM. I firmly believe that you will not lose 95 trades in a row with 1 % risk or maybe even 45 trades with 2 % risk. You have shown decent trades in FX-Rays thread and will probably still be able to find these setups. Then again, building from an account with a few hundred bucks is a hard business. It is very, very hard psychologically and maybe it is really better to at least invest 1 k. I did so at the beginning of the year and this account is already 10 % up. I trade no higher leverage than 1:10 on this and I hope it can go that way to grow. Yes, this is not big money, but somehow it has to start ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #11
  • Feb 18, 2015 4:41pm Feb 18, 2015 4:41pm
Quoting Hickson
{quote} No offence mate, but with 95 % draw down on the first day there must be serious issues with the MM. I firmly believe that you will not lose 95 trades in a row with 1 % risk or maybe even 45 trades with 2 % risk. You have shown decent trades in FX-Rays thread and will probably still be able to find these setups. Then again, building from an account with a few hundred bucks is a hard business. It is very, very hard psychologically and maybe it is really better to at least invest 1 k. I did so at the beginning of the year and this account is...
Lost 40 trades. But had 35% win rate. This would be good enough. But the R:R wasn't consistently good enough.

I've got so many issues with my trading at this point, I'm not even sure where to begin. As you mentioned, I used to be able to make pretty good trading calls. And I still can. But I feel like I've lost the ability to apply what I know to my own trading. I might be able to get it back. I might not be able to. Maybe I never had it. Time will tell.

I'll also say this - I can identify good setups and post them on a forum. And I can be right most of the time with what I post. But that doesn't fix my trading problems. I've tried to only trade what I post, but somehow, lack of discipline catches up with me, and I stop posting...
  • #12
  • Feb 18, 2015 5:12pm Feb 18, 2015 5:12pm
Quoting benaiah
{quote} Lost 40 trades. But had 35% win rate. This would be good enough. But the R:R wasn't consistently good enough. I've got so many issues with my trading at this point, I'm not even sure where to begin. As you mentioned, I used to be able to make pretty good trading calls. And I still can. But I feel like I've lost the ability to apply what I know to my own trading. I might be able to get it back. I might not be able to. Maybe I never had it. Time will tell. I'll also say this - I can identify good setups and post them on a forum. And I can...
Sorry to see you struggling here ben.
How do you go about your trading if I can ask? Your decision making process?
Regards.
  • #13
  • Feb 18, 2015 6:05pm Feb 18, 2015 6:05pm
Quoting skfx
{quote} Sorry to see you struggling here ben. How do you go about your trading if I can ask? Your decision making process? Regards.
Good question! I'm all over the place with that, just like everything else regarding my trading. Even when I start off patient and disciplined, I end up locking into the charts, and forcing trades all day.

Here's an example: Currently GJ was just bear slammed. It seems to have hesitated on it's descent. I entered long on a very low quality reversal on M15. My excuse to enter was that price is at the bottom of a channel it's been moving in on H1 time frame. Maybe the trade will work out, maybe it won't. But it is still, in my opinion an example of forcing a trade when there really isn't a high quality setup...
  • #14
  • Feb 19, 2015 6:40am Feb 19, 2015 6:40am
Quoting benaiah
{quote} Good question! I'm all over the place with that, just like everything else regarding my trading. Even when I start off patient and disciplined, I end up locking into the charts, and forcing trades all day. Here's an example: Currently GJ was just bear slammed. It seems to have hesitated on it's descent. I entered long on a very low quality reversal on M15. My excuse to enter was that price is at the bottom of a channel it's been moving in on H1 time frame. Maybe the trade will work out, maybe it won't. But it is still, in my opinion an example...
If you aren't looking at the market correctly you can be patient and disciplined all you want but wont make anything.
On the flip side if you understand how it all works and are not patient and disciplined then you'll struggle also.

What i'm trying to find out Ben is, are you losing because your impatient or undisciplined or are you losing because of the way you're going about the process of trading?
Just trying to work out where you're at.
Regards.
  • #15
  • Feb 19, 2015 8:40am Feb 19, 2015 8:40am
Quoting skfx
{quote} If you aren't looking at the market correctly you can be patient and disciplined all you want but wont make anything. On the flip side if you understand how it all works and are not patient and disciplined then you'll struggle also. What i'm trying to find out Ben is, are you losing because your impatient or undisciplined or are you losing because of the way you're going about the process of trading? Just trying to work out where you're at. Regards.
I think it ends up being both. Lack of patience and discipline will result in not following proper analysis/method.

That's why it's so frustrating. I know how to trade. I also know that you really only need a few trades a week to be profitable. But I always end up with hundreds of trades due to overtrading.

I have 1 or 2 setups that I know would be profitable if I could just wait for them.
  • #16
  • Feb 19, 2015 11:48am Feb 19, 2015 11:48am
Quoting benaiah
{quote} I think it ends up being both. Lack of patience and discipline will result in not following proper analysis/method. That's why it's so frustrating. I know how to trade. I also know that you really only need a few trades a week to be profitable. But I always end up with hundreds of trades due to overtrading. I have 1 or 2 setups that I know would be profitable if I could just wait for them.
Yes absolutely Ben! You only need a few good trades a week and you can put in solid stable growth.

What do you consider when you're trading? Do you have a 'blueprint' you work off, a framework for decision making?
It sounds a little like you're flying by the seat of your pants. I could be wrong though.
Its critical that you give what would seem chaos, structure.

I have a 'blueprint' I use and i stick to the 'blueprint'.
Why? Because it pays me.

Anyway, hope you can sort it out.
Regards.
  • #17
  • Feb 19, 2015 12:17pm Feb 19, 2015 12:17pm
Quoting skfx
{quote} Yes absolutely Ben! You only need a few good trades a week and you can put in solid stable growth. What do you consider when you're trading? Do you have a 'blueprint' you work off, a framework for decision making? It sounds a little like you're flying by the seat of your pants. I could be wrong though. Its critical that you give what would seem chaos, structure. I have a 'blueprint' I use and i stick to the 'blueprint'. Why? Because it pays me. Anyway, hope you can sort it out. Regards.
Yes, sound advice. And yes, I am winging it most of the time. I need to work on sticking to risk mitigation, and only take trades that offer good R:R and high probability. When I do that, trading is very simple, easy, and boring. It's what I need to get back to doing...
  • #18
  • Feb 20, 2015 1:14pm Feb 20, 2015 1:14pm
Well. Today was "good". But I still failed, when it comes to money management. I know I risked too much on several trades. I also, after a few losses, increased my risk to recover losses more quickly. I don't think this is sustainable in the long run, and will need to work on this.
  • #19
  • Feb 20, 2015 1:17pm Feb 20, 2015 1:17pm
Quoting benaiah
Well. Today was "good". But I still failed, when it comes to money management. I know I risked too much on several trades. I also, after a few losses, increased my risk to recover losses more quickly. I don't think this is sustainable in the long run, and will need to work on this.
As you know the points to work on, there is no doubt that there is a chance to turn around! lol ... I should really do something else now, the market is not letting me go into the weekend haha
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #20
  • Feb 20, 2015 1:20pm Feb 20, 2015 1:20pm
Quoting Hickson
{quote} As you know the points to work on, there is no doubt that there is a chance to turn around! lol ... I should really do something else now, the market is not letting me go into the weekend haha
Ha ha, I know what you mean! I did tear myself away, though. I'm not trading or watching it, but still thinking about strategy, and improving...
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