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And now for something completely different

  • #141
  • Feb 17, 2015 8:32am Feb 17, 2015 8:32am
Quoting Porkpie
{quote} So, not really different to trading supply and demand (re: your other post), which ultimately identifies contraction expansion (pull back to contraction continuation patterns). Your line in the sand and entry levels, and my SD levels are simply way markers based on market fact - how it moves. The only difference is, where you are entering on the breakout, I am entering on the pull back. So, in theory not much difference in logic. And I'd go even further to suggest that if you were also trading the higher time frames, you could find yourself...
the key differences are:

1. mindset
2. application of method (are there any if's and buts? subjectiveness? can entries be automated?)
3. frequency of opportunity

other than that we are all trading the same movements in price yes, if you remember I always say - this is an alternative to predictive technical analysis and not superior, although for some it may well yield greater result
tradewith60
  • #142
  • Feb 17, 2015 9:50am Feb 17, 2015 9:50am
OK results for today (I think I'm tired better to call it off )

Gold : I made up for the lost trade of yesterday and up + 35 pips. I feel I'm taking profit a bit too early but I am always "afraid" it will reverse and lost the profit I made

EURUSD: I am at BE for today (1 win 1 loss for same number of pips +2) but took 2 heavy losses yesterday and still holding one in the red for now.

I guess maybe one might want to look at the big picture before deciding on the pair to trade?? (60mm your input is appreciated) the D1 chart of EuroUsd look pretty pretty ugly

maybe not trading everyday the same pair would be a nice idea
  • #143
  • Feb 17, 2015 10:16am Feb 17, 2015 10:16am
Quoting EternalNewB
OK results for today (I think I'm tired better to call it off ) Gold : I made up for the lost trade of yesterday and up + 35 pips. I feel I'm taking profit a bit too early but I am always "afraid" it will reverse and lost the profit I made EURUSD: I am at BE for today (1 win 1 loss for same number of pips +2) but took 2 heavy losses yesterday and still holding one in the red for now. I guess maybe one might want to look at the big picture before deciding on the pair to trade?? (60mm your input is appreciated) the D1 chart of EuroUsd look pretty...
give it time, you need trades to make it work... the profit factor is low. Also end of the week brings the real volatility we need

(im often down start of week)
tradewith60
  • #144
  • Feb 17, 2015 12:25pm Feb 17, 2015 12:25pm
Quoting 60minuteman
{image}
25 losing trades in a row ?
Am I reading that correctly?
If yes, then morale could take a blow.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #145
  • Feb 17, 2015 12:31pm Feb 17, 2015 12:31pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} 25 losing trades in a row ? Am I reading that correctly? If yes, then morale could take a blow.
I think that is why most prefer the high win rate over the high r:r. You would have to have a lot of faith in your system to absorb that.
  • #146
  • Feb 17, 2015 2:46pm Feb 17, 2015 2:46pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} 25 losing trades in a row ? Am I reading that correctly? If yes, then morale could take a blow.
yep spot on.... every time we come to the charts we need to deal with fear and many other emotions based on fear. Fortunately it is a skill that is easy to learn with experience. When you decide which side of the fence you wish to sit on with the RR win rate scenario then you should know what to expect anyway. This example holds on to trades and so you will watch many winners become losers, the pay off is an aggressive account growth.
tradewith60
  • #147
  • Feb 17, 2015 2:49pm Feb 17, 2015 2:49pm
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} every time we come to the charts we need to deal with fear. Fortunately it is a skill that is easy to learn with experience. When you decide which side of the fence you wish to sit on with the RR win rate scenario then you should know what to expect anyway.
This is key. When you know what you can expect in terms of win rate, the fear dims
  • #148
  • Feb 17, 2015 2:50pm Feb 17, 2015 2:50pm
Quoting Dewey McG
{quote} I think that is why most prefer the high win rate over the high r:r. You would have to have a lot of faith in your system to absorb that.
Hey Dewey indeed belief is a massive part of trading -

"With anything uncertain, our brains search for context, and a large share of that context is the pre-existing internal one – better known as our beliefs and emotions. Harry Markowitz, the father of asset allocation, said step one is knowing what you believe. (Again, a feeling of confidence is part of a belief, is it not?) Step two is the allocation. He reiterated many times that his prize-winning paper started with step two!"
tradewith60
  • #149
  • Feb 17, 2015 3:06pm Feb 17, 2015 3:06pm
this is from the DUNN fund, a very famous and long running trend trading fund, look at the drawdowns routinely experienced, but he never changed a thing, total belief in his system (essentially a breakout trend trading system)

p.s look how long a period this covers!


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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tradewith60
  • #150
  • Feb 17, 2015 3:49pm Feb 17, 2015 3:49pm
Quoting 60minuteman
look at the drawdowns routinely experienced{image}
That chart is the definition of belief in one's system. But I am sure whenever his drawdown got to a certain point -- 35%, 40% -- that he began worrying, losing sleep, stuff that is not good for one's health. Because if you're down 50%, who's to say you'll definitely make it back from the abyss? Who's to say you won't draw down the next 50% and end up with nothing?

I will say that beating the S&P by a relative 60% over a super-long period as Dunn has done is a major achievement.
  • #151
  • Feb 17, 2015 3:53pm Feb 17, 2015 3:53pm
Quoting California
{quote} That chart is the definition of belief in one's system. But I am sure whenever his drawdown got to a certain point -- 35%, 40% -- that he began worrying, losing sleep, stuff that is not good for one's health. Because if you're down 50%, who's to say you'll definitely make it back from the abyss? Who's to say you won't draw down the next 50% and end up with nothing?
Of course Cali he wouldn't not be human if he did not feel fear when things were going against him, but it is not feeling the emotions that matters it is wether we choose to act them out or not the distinguishes the 5% from the 95% - it is nearly always the mind that is unique in the high achievers and very rarely the strategy. (I do have some links to some recent study carried out in this field on traders in London)
tradewith60
  • #152
  • Feb 17, 2015 4:11pm Feb 17, 2015 4:11pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} 25 losing trades in a row ? Am I reading that correctly? If yes, then morale could take a blow.
I don't know how that ea works but I have back tested mine from 1-1-2014 and didn't get more than 5 consecutive losses It was about 78% win rate but the losses where big compared to the wins.
  • #153
  • Feb 17, 2015 4:23pm Feb 17, 2015 4:23pm
A video about Risk

Inserted Video
tradewith60
  • #154
  • Feb 17, 2015 4:24pm Feb 17, 2015 4:24pm
Quoting EternalNewB
{quote} I don't know how that ea works but I have back tested mine from 1-1-2014 and didn't get more than 5 consecutive losses It was about 78% win rate but the losses where big compared to the wins.
EN that EA is the big RR version... OK
tradewith60
  • #155
  • Feb 18, 2015 4:56am Feb 18, 2015 4:56am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} EN that EA is the big RR version... OK
Hi
I just cannot understand how an EA would work while there is no set exit.
You have a set entry and a set stop loss but your exit is fully discretionary.
Regards
  • #156
  • Feb 18, 2015 5:00am Feb 18, 2015 5:00am
Quoting howard
{quote} Hi I just cannot understand how an EA would work while there is no set exit. You have a set entry and a set stop loss but your exit is fully discretionary.
indeed, the EA had to have a set exit, when I am trading manually, probably wrongly, I assume I can make better judgements (although that theory has looked flimsy this week so far )
tradewith60
  • #157
  • Feb 18, 2015 5:17am Feb 18, 2015 5:17am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} indeed, the EA had to have a set exit, when I am trading manually, probably wrongly, I assume I can make better judgements (although that theory has looked flimsy this week so far )
I was wondering same. If exit is based on intuitive (and hopefully not impulsive) feeling/experience ie as Howard says: discretionary, how that could be coded to give the TS results?
But then didn't I read somewhere you take profit on next bar close that closes in profit? Which made me think this is how your EA worked to allow coding and thus historical back test. Or is that not right?
Cheers
  • #158
  • Feb 18, 2015 5:34am Feb 18, 2015 5:34am
Quoting gearys
{quote} I was wondering same. If exit is based on intuitive (and hopefully not impulsive) feeling/experience ie as Howard says: discretionary, how that could be coded to give the TS results? But then didn't I read somewhere you take profit on next bar close that closes in profit? Which made me think this is how your EA worked to allow coding and thus historical back test. Or is that not right? Cheers
Ok... we need to go back to the basic premise, what we are saying here is:

1. trade every breakout
2. either use wide stops or aim for large wins (let them run)
3. insure you have become aware of the mental pitfalls we all suffer from that may sabotage your execution of 1, 2 or both.

so initially here I showed a manual version that used wide stops and then took small wins when we closed in profit, so sometimes you get some nice big wins too, but essentially simple to do with discretion.

We also have an EA that lets EVERY trade run to a pre-defined sl (it generates a RR of 2.5 but that wasn't what we used to exit)...

So the technical details can be a myriad of options as long as points 1,2 and 3 get satisfied. This is way to simple for the brain to accept because secretly we all think it's a numbers game and numbers means math and math is hard!...but it's not, its a simple game of chance and we need to SIMPLY put the odds in our favour...
tradewith60
  • #159
  • Feb 18, 2015 6:39am Feb 18, 2015 6:39am
Quoting howard
{quote} Hi I just cannot understand how an EA would work while there is no set exit. You have a set entry and a set stop loss but your exit is fully discretionary.
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} indeed, the EA had to have a set exit, when I am trading manually, probably wrongly, I assume I can make better judgements (although that theory has looked flimsy this week so far )
I just "coded" my emotions lol

I set it to close at the end of the hour if in profit X pips minimum, and to close it before the end of the hour if it is in profit Y pips minimum where Y > X
  • #160
  • Edited 12:31pm Feb 18, 2015 11:50am | Edited 12:31pm
-20 pips on gold today +14 pips for the week so far

I'm kind of pissed off because I could have easily made money today if I hadn't close the greens so early...

Now the big question should I be more "greedy" with the greens or should I wait more before taking any decision

EDIT: basic this tells me to just wait
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 126 KB

Cheers
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