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Simple, Powerful and Effective Price Action Trading Strategies

  • #421
  • Feb 10, 2015 4:30pm Feb 10, 2015 4:30pm
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Recently we looked over a strong bullish counter trend setup in the AUDJPY market. A strong, large Rejection Candle formed off a major weekly support level, which has seen good bullish follow through during last week’s trading.

So far this week however, the market has taken pause and price has consolidated into a double inside day pattern. Double Inside Day’s are a really good primer for powerful breakouts. Generally the breakouts will occur with recent momentum, so in this case we could be looking at a break to the high side.

The USDJPY has also closed outside of it’s consolidation pattern, and looks like it’s on the up move also.

If this consolidation pattern is broken, then we could definitely see this next weekly level tested as resistance, and possibly even see it breached if the market has enough bullish strength.
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #422
  • Feb 10, 2015 9:22pm Feb 10, 2015 9:22pm
My two cents.

I agree there is place to rise. Where to ? If you look at the daily, there is such a confluence of resistances between 95,5 and 96,5 ( got broken lows, 50 fib, several SMAs), that I would set it as a target and look for reversal here.

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  • #423
  • Feb 16, 2015 5:53am Feb 16, 2015 5:53am
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The Swiss France is starting to settle down and stabilize after the big SNB event last month. Liquidity providers are opening their doors again and it's back to business as usual with trading the Franc.

The really large drop caused by the SNB releasing their peg created a large candle as we know, and on the Metatrader platforms, everything scales relative to the largest candle. Until that large event candle clears the screen completely, we are going to be looking at what appears to be tiny candles.

Don't be fooled, these candles still have some decent movement in them, averaging a daily high/low range of 100 pips.

Price has just busted above a resistance level here now, which is holding as support - a swing level.

On Friday, the market closed as a bullish rejection candle after the bulls denied any moves lower into support again. This bullish rejection candle has a 70 pip range, so it is decent. It also has a nice strong close in the body and forming at this key swing level.

Price looks like it's going to try push higher off this level, and this kind of price action could be the framework you could build a long trade off.

www.theforexguy.com
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #424
  • Feb 16, 2015 6:31am Feb 16, 2015 6:31am
Quoting DnBPriceAct
{image} The Swiss France is starting to settle down and stabilize after the big SNB event last month. Liquidity providers are opening their doors again and it's back to business as usual with trading the Franc. The really large drop caused by the SNB releasing their peg created a large candle as we know, and on the Metatrader platforms, everything scales relative to the largest candle. Until that large event candle clears the screen completely, we are going to be looking at what appears to be tiny candles. Don't be fooled, these candles still have...
Thanks for the good information..


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  • #425
  • Feb 16, 2015 10:19pm Feb 16, 2015 10:19pm
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An attempted to break downwards has failed on the AUDUSD today, with the market absorbing the downmove and snapping back higher as we move towards london.

These type of asia breakout traps can have potent follow through during the busier London / New York session. The high has already been breached, triggering a breakout trap and reverse trade setup.

Let's see how this one plays out in the later parts of the session.

www.theforexguy.com
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #426
  • Feb 17, 2015 6:43am Feb 17, 2015 6:43am
Good day Dale Woods I 've been a silent follower of your thread for quite some time now and like never before I am seeing forex as a business. Thanks so much. I was going through Gold chart yesterday and I thought yesterday was a rejection candle which may drive us down to the weekly support at 1172.68. Am I any close to reading the price action correctly? I am still in my re-branding face
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  • #427
  • Feb 17, 2015 6:48am Feb 17, 2015 6:48am
I am a little more conservative these days, and I would have liked to see the rejection candle close lower than the open price.

You are showing an example of a rejection candle that close too far up into the candle range - which is not a good rejection signal when you think about it logically.

You're in the right mind to be a seller here, and because of this I would have only considered taking a breakout of that day's low, just to confirm the extra bearish momentum.

Pro Tip: Generally the best gold breakouts occur during the NY session when the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is open. This is when gold shows it's true intent for the session.
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #428
  • Feb 17, 2015 8:41am Feb 17, 2015 8:41am
Quoting DnBPriceAct
I am a little more conservative these days, and I would have liked to see the rejection candle close lower than the open price. You are showing an example of a rejection candle that close too far up into the candle range - which is not a good rejection signal when you think about it logically. You're in the right mind to be a seller here, and because of this I would have only considered taking a breakout of that day's low, just to confirm the extra bearish momentum....
Wow this is an eye opener I never thought about it that. Thank you so much
  • #429
  • Feb 17, 2015 4:46pm Feb 17, 2015 4:46pm
I'm new to forex and focusing on different styles of trading but mainly on Price Action as it shows some logic of market movements. I'm studying Steve Nison for price action. Your thread is helping me a lot in practical field. I need your suggestion in choosing trading style and a starting tip from where I can start study. Thanks for giving time to this thread.
  • #430
  • Feb 18, 2015 1:00am Feb 18, 2015 1:00am
Quoting DnBPriceAct
{image} An attempted to break downwards has failed on the AUDUSD today, with the market absorbing the downmove and snapping back higher as we move towards london. These type of asia breakout traps can have potent follow through during the busier London / New York session. The high has already been breached, triggering a breakout trap and reverse trade setup. Let's see how this one plays out in the later parts of the session. www.theforexguy.com
I now have a range on AU daily with a clear double bottom around ,765 and a range resistance around ,785. I am a litle surprised as you seem to be for I thought the bullish reversal would be stronger and clearer from that ,765 level.


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the monthly is also very interesting.

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The two red lines are my daily range. You see that we have a very strong bearish move, but we are stuck (retesting ? ) SMA200. Thsi level seems to be a s+r level as indicated by price action in the year 2005 (with some spikes in 2007 2009). Are we going tp bounce bullish? Will the pair confirm the bearish breka out of SMA200. Man,it is an even better thriller than watching Games of Thrones !

#aazishhunain . start making your own multifrane analysis. Steve Nison's book is a great one, and you need to spot the configuration and to know what they mean by heart !
  • #431
  • Feb 19, 2015 5:50am Feb 19, 2015 5:50am
I just noticed an early entry on the EUR/USD 4H with a rejection bearish candle some where around 1.1438 could this intensify the bearish mood of this pair, and drive it down to the nearest support at around 1.1335? This is in conjunction with the symmetric pattern on the daily time frame. Any observation?
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  • #432
  • Feb 19, 2015 6:53am Feb 19, 2015 6:53am
Quoting sepramfx
I just noticed an early entry on the EUR/USD 4H with a rejection bearish candle some where around 1.1438 could this intensify the bearish mood of this pair, and drive it down to the nearest support at around 1.1335? This is in conjunction with the symmetric pattern on the daily time frame. Any observation? {image}
For me, I was looking for an entry a bit higher up. You could however argue the case that price was rejecting a mini resistance zone there though.
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  • #433
  • Feb 19, 2015 8:38pm Feb 19, 2015 8:38pm
Quote
I'm new to forex and focusing on different styles of trading but mainly on Price Action as it shows some logic of market movements. I'm studying Steve Nison for price action. Your thread is helping me a lot in practical field. I need your suggestion in choosing trading style and a starting tip from where I can start study. Thanks for giving time to this thread.

Well I trade with price action strategies, so I am going to always recommend that. The only other area of interest I have is Renko Candles, which I play around with in my spare time. But they are just a form of price action trading where time is eliminated from the candle. Something you guys can look into if you like.


Quote
I now have a range on AU daily with a clear double bottom around ,765 and a range resistance around ,785. I am a little surprised as you seem to be for I thought the bullish reversal would be stronger and clearer from that ,765 level.


Me too, but the show is not over yet, price is testing the resistance level. An indecision candle formed here last session, we could see a break to the high side still but this market is very neutral at the present time. Based on the severity of the bullish rejection we've seen off weekly support, I still believe we will see some bullish follow through.


Quote
I just noticed an early entry on the EUR/USD 4H with a rejection bearish candle some where around 1.1438 could this intensify the bearish mood of this pair, and drive it down to the nearest support at around 1.1335? This is in conjunction with the symmetric pattern on the daily time frame. Any observation?

EURUSD is a very flat market at the moment. Here is my view of that market at the moment...


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As you can see price is squeezing up here into a wedge. I have no doubt a breakout is going to occur soon, the bearish rejection candle could fuel the breakout move to the downside - but this market could break either way. It's risky to try trade consolidation patterns, as they are notorious for producing failed breaks - but if you can catch the right side of the breakout you're laughing.



Quote
For me, I was looking for an entry a bit higher up. You could however argue the case that price was rejecting a mini resistance zone there though.

If you are finding hard, or confusing to gauge your support and resistance levels, try moving to the daily and weekly chart to see what's going on there. Mark the major turning points and levels you see here and then scale back down to the 4 hour. Don't make the process too complicated, or look into things too deeply. This is where traders screw up their charts by making 50 different levels until they don't know what they're looking at anymore.

There is nothing wrong with your 4 hour chart. But I find 4 hour charts can be a little deceptive, because they are a little but noisier. That's what I always use the Daily and Weekly for level marking.

I did write an article on how to mark support and resistance levels.
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #434
  • Feb 19, 2015 8:41pm Feb 19, 2015 8:41pm
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The AUDCHF caught my attention this morning after the New York close. The Swiss Franc (CHF) seems to be in a strong downtrend after the big SNB event last month, which has been producing a lot of good price action opportunities on the CHF pairs. I am still holding a price action buy trade on the USDCHF actually.

So another bullish trading opportunity has formed on the AUDCHF daily chart here. What's basically going on is a level, which previously held has stubborn resistance is now being respected as support. This mean value also lives in the same area being rejection - creating a bullish hot spot for buy trades.

The last two candles here have has strong closes above the open prices for the day, so this market looks like it is gearing up for a move into a new swing high. Retracement opportunities may be available during the Asia session.

www.theforexguy.com
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #435
  • Feb 23, 2015 4:03am Feb 23, 2015 4:03am
The price action on GBP/JPY closed with a bullish rejection candle could this propel price to the nearest resistance at around 189.36 well the market has the final say let see. Any observation BOSS?
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  • #436
  • Feb 23, 2015 4:12am Feb 23, 2015 4:12am
Quoting sepramfx
I just noticed an early entry on the EUR/USD 4H with a rejection bearish candle some where around 1.1438 could this intensify the bearish mood of this pair, and drive it down to the nearest support at around 1.1335? This is in conjunction with the symmetric pattern on the daily time frame. Any observation? {image}
This is the situation report on my EUR/USD last week. Price was driven down to 1.1335 and beyond
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  • #437
  • Feb 23, 2015 4:20am Feb 23, 2015 4:20am
Quoting sepramfx
The price action on GBP/JPY closed with a bullish rejection candle could this propel price to the nearest resistance at around 189.36 well the market has the final say let see. Any observation BOSS? {image}
Pending what BOSS comes back with, my observation on this one is, playing Devil's Advocate for the moment, that you could argue the case that long's here would be trading the extension. Yes, it's a nice looking bullish pinbar but it's not formed at a turning point and there are long upper wicks to some of the recent bars.

It may of course be sufficient to provide the desired upside momentum but personally, I would only take a long here from a lower timeframe signal rather than trading the Daily itself.
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  • #438
  • Feb 23, 2015 4:30am Feb 23, 2015 4:30am
The GBPJPY signal has been heavily discussed by war room traders as well.

It is a valid signal, as it did form from a swing level - which is also longer term support level, and is also backed by the dynamic support properties of the trend mean value area as well.

This market is bullish at the moment, so the rejection candle did form with existing momentum too.

The only thing i don't really like to do is trade on Monday's - which generally produce less than favorable outcomes. I think a common mistake is people being put off resistance levels in this situation. I think they hold less value until price communicates otherwise. The market is stepping upwards in a bullish trend here, the chances are that anticipated resistance levels will be taken out.
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #439
  • Feb 23, 2015 5:30am Feb 23, 2015 5:30am
Quoting JackAntigua
{quote} Pending what BOSS comes back with, my observation on this one is, playing Devil's Advocate for the moment, that you could argue the case that long's here would be trading the extension. Yes, it's a nice looking bullish pinbar but it's not formed at a turning point and there are long upper wicks to some of the recent bars. It may of course be sufficient to provide the desired upside momentum but personally, I would only take a long here from a lower timeframe signal rather than trading the Daily itself. {image}
I really appreciate your observation but don't you think the the second purpule zone below the pin bar you drew is a turning point? The MA as well provides the confluence what do you think?
  • #440
  • Feb 23, 2015 5:36am Feb 23, 2015 5:36am
Quoting JackAntigua
{quote} Pending what BOSS comes back with, my observation on this one is, playing Devil's Advocate for the moment, that you could argue the case that long's here would be trading the extension. Yes, it's a nice looking bullish pinbar but it's not formed at a turning point and there are long upper wicks to some of the recent bars. It may of course be sufficient to provide the desired upside momentum but personally, I would only take a long here from a lower timeframe signal rather than trading the Daily itself. {image}
I really appreciate your observation but don't you think the the second purpule zone below the pin bar you drew is a turning point? The MA as well provides the confluence what do you think? It is a valid signal, as it did form from a swing level - which is also longer term support level, and is also backed by the dynamic support properties of the trend mean value area as well.This market is bullish at the moment, so the rejection candle did form with existing momentum too. thanks BOOS
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