Trading CFDs and Forex with Market Profile and Supply/Demand

Nasdaq100 Analysis:

In a strong uptrend

Wall St opened above Value Area, although still inside Fridays range (the very top though). Balance from Friday still shows strong buyers, overnight inventory is long.

Now I look for demand confluence around VAL and VAH, or inside VA on a 30 min chart.

Market Profile shows us that it's safe to still try to do an intraday long position.

Currently developing MP is inside Fridays single ticks and price is steadily holding up, observing absorption of sell orders on daily Delta. Will the opening range hold? If it does, buying the top seems the right decision for intraday trade.

To the tick Value Area High rejection - typical play in super-bullish instruments

A setup is emerging in XAUUSD.

XAUUSD Trend analysis: Primary and secondary trend both down.

I believe in the longer term this instrument will end up at 1187, but not before it reacts to 1208 demand

So I'm looking for a short setup again.

Why is are both large TF trends down? Because prices keep making lower lows and lower highs:

Daily shows a strong uptrend with recent daily supply not even touched. That means I need to look for even lower timeframes to try and get in on a swing. Currently, price has fallen into a newly formed weak demand with meandering movement away, so I doubt this demand will be reactive for much longer. Demands where prices have not stayed away for extended periods of time are generally weak. The only time you can look to play these is if they are WITH the larger trend direction AND you're trying to get in off a much lower timeframe because you missed the initial swing away. Counter-trend newly formed zones will likely end in either few ticks gained, or a loss right off the bat.

So back to trying to locate a swing trade. I will turn to Market Profile Value Area to see if I can find a good confluence between a supply and VA. And here it is, supply that overlaps VA and a weekly pivot is lurking right under. Multiple price-action based confluences make it safe to put a set-and-forget short order at 1230.00 for a target at 1208, just above the lower, older demand.

Great example of compression into supply there...

Bounce in EURUSD from VAH to the tick. But I manage to miss it, oh well.

How to calculate your own Value Area without paying $500 per month to futures brokers.

Open history center on MT4 (press F2). Go to your desired instrument and double-click on (30 Minutes - M30).

Press Download - to download the latest data.

Now export the file, press export.

Open Excel. Open *.csv file (select All Files in file types menu). Scroll all the way to the bottom for the data of previous trading day.

You always want to calculate data based on PREVIOUS trading day.

Find Wall Street open and close time.

Select only Columns D and E (High and Low) with the Wall St electronic trading times.

Go to:
http://www.mypivots.com/investment-c...ile-calculator

Input the copied D and E columns from Wall St trading times and adjust the settings to reflect the numerical format of the instrument.

Click "Generate" - and voila, you have your VAH, VAL and POC numbers for the day.

http://www.angelocapital.co.uk

WTI Crude has opened inside Value at Nymex. By using its negative correlation with USD/CAD - which looks like price will open above value, indicating more upside for the pair - I would like to wait until Crude falls closer to VAL. Ideally at that point I would like to see USDCAD hit supply at 1.2495.

My area of interest for WTI crude is a long position between 51.60 and 52.20

To clarify why I think USDCAD will go down, I shall consult the monthly S/D analysis. USDCAD has reached a Monthly virgin supply with all the makings a trader needs to speculate rejection: price stayed away for a long time, there was a nice move away from supply and it was untouched. Weekly chart shows that rejection is already on the way, so price has already turned. Of course, to confirm rejection from Monthly for a serious trend turn, I need to wait for the months end. However, I am willing to speculate that this supply will be reactive. Given the positive CAD correlation, I can finally see some more serious uptrend in Crude in the near future.

Short DAX off VAH, target 1 @ 10850, target 2 10760

Looking at USDCAD and WTI Crude as a negative correlation, for now USDCAD is firmly holding below VA, while crude is inside it. Although Nymex open is still a few hours away, I would like to speculate further downside in USDCAD and a play-out of the monthly chart setup which I posted about 2 days ago.

http://www.angelocapital.co.uk

Value Area Low coming up in DAX at 11743. Let's see if we get a bounce.

Real demand is lower down around 11700, but QE cash might push it from VAL. Target around 11900

Bullish engulfing on m15, now I look for follow-through

About to pop the top, are you in? I'm in

DAX back into new VA, can we get 11844? Another long on Devilish Dax

E/U rejection from VAH, weak demand at 1.0550, fresh demand at 1.0430 from waaaaay back. Short euro, long Dax, short euro, long Dax. Can you say Punxsatony Phil?

11844 obtained, what a nice thing to wake up to. How high can it go? Friday 13th seems a good day for Devilish Dax

Ca we get a 1.0430 Mr Market? Pretty please?

DAX: Two 4-hour demands corresponding to around POC and VAL numbers.

I will be watching price action if we return to these two areas for another long position.