Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 268 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #5,341
  • Feb 13, 2015 3:14pm Feb 13, 2015 3:14pm
EURAUD Monthly:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,342
  • Feb 14, 2015 8:56am Feb 14, 2015 8:56am
Quoting panoramia
Triggered short on AUD/NZD Daily supply zone nested at a Weekly supply zone with a clear Monthly and Weekly downtrend. Monthly is down Weekly is down D1 was up and out of alignment D1 realigning with the Monthly and Weekly downtrend based on supply and demand imbalances Hope the analysis is clear. I didn't post the MN and Weekly charts but they are down and those timeframe's imbalances can be seen with the horizontal trendlines that the rectangle indicator draws on all timeframes. I moved my SL much lower now, so risking much less in this trade...
Hi ALfonso,
for this trade, you said the weekly was downtrend. but I see that it has broken the descending trendline and price was retracing to the weekly SZ. isn't it that a confirmation would have to be taken ?

as for your entry time frame on the daily, price toobroke the descending trendline and retraced to the daily SZ which is nested on the weekly SZ, sin;t the rule state sthat when price breaks trendline, we need to use confirmation entry?
can you enlighten me please? thank you
  • #5,343
  • Feb 14, 2015 2:33pm Feb 14, 2015 2:33pm
Quoting Solomon1a
EURAUD Monthly: {image}
Hi solomon1a,
can you show me the technical analysis report for this currency pair..

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  • #5,344
  • Feb 15, 2015 9:22am Feb 15, 2015 9:22am
Quoting raselnet
{quote} Hi solomon1a, can you show me the technical analysis report for this currency pair.. ------------------SIGNATURE----------------------- Download over 500 Forex Robots for FREE at: http://mt4talk.com/viewforum.php?id=3 Download over 2400 forex indicators for FREE at: http://mt4talk.com/viewforum.php?id=32
Monhtly = Bullish consolidation
Weekly Bullish consolidation and re-aligning with monthly
Daily = Clearly Up

So long is the bias.

Best area to buy euraud would be the nested MN and WK and D! DZ.

Monthly:

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Weekly:

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Daily:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,345
  • Feb 15, 2015 2:05pm Feb 15, 2015 2:05pm
In the first post it says:

"Imbalance took out an opposing zone.This rule is the core of this supply and demand strategy

 

  1. Making a higher high or a lower low does not necessarily validates a zone, it also needs to take out an opposing zone, unless scenario 3 occurs (read below)
  2. Exception: ​​If there is a H4 demand zone that took out an opposing H4 supply but the supply is within a D1 or bigger timeframe, the removal of the zone does not make the demand zone tradable, it’s way too high and we’ll need the D1 supply to be taken out instead. The same applies with a D1 demand zone having removed an opposing D1 supply zone but that supply zone is located within a WK supply zone. Price is fractal, the same rules apply to all timeframes and combinations"

However, there is no scenario 3 listed. Is there supposed to be a 3rd scenario listed here?

  • #5,346
  • Feb 16, 2015 3:00am Feb 16, 2015 3:00am
Quoting mess7777
In the first post it says: "Imbalance took out an opposing zone.This rule is the core of this supply and demand strategy Making a higher high or a lower low does not necessarily validates a zone, it also needs to take out an opposing zone, unless scenario 3 occurs (read below) Exception: ​​If there is a H4 demand zone that took out an opposing H4 supply but the supply is within a D1 or bigger timeframe, the removal of the zone does not make the demand zone tradable, its way too high and well need the D1 supply to be taken out instead....
Sorry that scenario 3 text shouldn't be there. There are exceptions and I wanted to refer to them. When there is no opposing are to be taken out or that opposing area is 3:1 or more from current potential zone, the zone will be confirmed. Also, when price is making all time highs or all time lows, there is no opposing zone to be taken out, the zone is confirmed automatically once the right imblalance is created.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,347
  • Feb 16, 2015 4:39am Feb 16, 2015 4:39am
Quoting Solomon1a
{quote} Monhtly = Bullish consolidation Weekly Bullish consolidation and re-aligning with monthly Daily = Clearly Up So long is the bias. Best area to buy euraud would be the nested MN and WK and D! DZ. Monthly: {image} Weekly: {image} Daily: {image}
hi man,
This is very good thanks i will follow them as you shown....


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  • #5,348
  • Feb 16, 2015 7:17am Feb 16, 2015 7:17am
Hello Alfonso,
I took this trade last Friday on the EUR/USD , my reasons for taking it were, Monthly and weekly were bouncing off demand, price was very low in the curve, 4 Hr zone was the one that caused the break of the TL and the Dollar index was very high in the curve and it had broken the daily TL.
Reasons maybe I should not have taken the trade, price had not consolidated away and it wasnt 2:1

What I would like to clarify is would this trade be considered valid but aggressive ? or not valid as it had not consolidated away?

Weekly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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4Hr
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any advice would be great.
Regards
Steve
  • #5,349
  • Feb 16, 2015 8:11am Feb 16, 2015 8:11am
Quoting Fatyflathead
Hello Alfonso, I took this trade last Friday on the EUR/USD , my reasons for taking it were, Monthly and weekly were bouncing off demand, price was very low in the curve, 4 Hr zone was the one that caused the break of the TL and the Dollar index was very high in the curve and it had broken the daily TL. Reasons maybe I should not have taken the trade, price had not consolidated away and it wasnt 2:1 What I would like to clarify is would this trade be considered valid but aggressive ? or not valid as it had not consolidated away? Weekly {image} 4Hr...
Going long on EURO now is too aggressive. If you are a countre-trend trader it's ok, but assume the risk of having unnecessary losses that can happen taking countr-trend.

That H4 long is too aggressive, D1 and WK Supply above. MN and WK are down, bias is short, not longs.

  1. The descending H4 TL is not correctly drawn, valid in red. Now there is an ascending H4 TL. See attachement
  2. The WK deamand you drew is not demand, it neither took out any WK supply zone nor did it break a WK descending TL


Cheers,
Alfonso

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,350
  • Feb 16, 2015 8:14am Feb 16, 2015 8:14am
Quoting lionfx
{quote} Hi ALfonso, for this trade, you said the weekly was downtrend. but I see that it has broken the descending trendline and price was retracing to the weekly SZ. isn't it that a confirmation would have to be taken ? as for your entry time frame on the daily, price toobroke the descending trendline and retraced to the daily SZ which is nested on the weekly SZ, sin;t the rule state sthat when price breaks trendline, we need to use confirmation entry? can you enlighten me please? thank you
The broken descending TL happened on the D1 timeframe, when that happens the D1 TL is ignored and the next valid short is at a WK SZ is the weekly timeframe is still down so the sequence rules are respected.

Hope it makes sense.
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,351
  • Feb 16, 2015 8:59am Feb 16, 2015 8:59am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Going long on EURO now is too aggressive. If you are a countre-trend trader it's ok, but assume the risk of having unnecessary losses that can happen taking countr-trend. That H4 long is too aggressive, D1 and WK Supply above. MN and WK are down, bias is short, not longs. The descending H4 TL is not correctly drawn, valid in red. Now there is an ascending H4 TL. See attachement The WK deamand you drew is not demand, it neither took out any WK supply zone nor did it break a WK descending TL Cheers, Alfonso {image}
Thanks Alfonso for the reply,
I need to keep learning and maybe do more seeing and less looking..
  • #5,352
  • Feb 16, 2015 10:08am Feb 16, 2015 10:08am
Hi Alfonso, I am still waiting for your video up here:

  1. SUBJECT: Longer term position analysis
  2. DATE: Monday 16th Febuary 2015
  3. TIME: 09:00 AM - 10:30 AM CEST (Central European Summer TIme), right at Lomdon Open

When are you going to post it?

Simple is powerful all the time.
  • #5,353
  • Feb 16, 2015 10:32am Feb 16, 2015 10:32am
Quoting RiverTrader
Hi Alfonso, I am still waiting for your video up here: SUBJECT: Longer term position analysis DATE: Monday 16th Febuary 2015 TIME: 09:00 AM - 10:30 AM CEST (Central European Summer TIme), right at Lomdon Open When are you going to post it?
Webinar has been delayed until Friday, 20.
Newbie trader
  • #5,354
  • Feb 16, 2015 12:46pm Feb 16, 2015 12:46pm
Quoting Solomon1a
{quote} Monhtly = Bullish consolidation Weekly Bullish consolidation and re-aligning with monthly Daily = Clearly Up So long is the bias. Best area to buy euraud would be the nested MN and WK and D! DZ. Monthly: {image} Weekly: {image} Daily: {image}
Hello dear, i have some question about ur charts. Monthly is in bullish or bullish consolidation ok but about the monthly Demand level i have confusion. As you took that level as marubuzo demand level, now my question is that candle is a marubuzo ? the size of candle is 1046 pips (aprox) and wick+tail = 311 pips (it can very broker to broker) so wick+tail is almost 30% of the total candle. I dont think its a marubuzo candle if anything then the candle below ur marked candle is a marubuzo candle. If u use scale button to see the candle u will get the picture.

on Weekly chart price broke the trendline and took out 2 demand level. we dont have 3 cp or 2 peaks to draw but as 2 demand are taken out so its a downtrend, now demand zone in control but no single supply taken out, so why we will call this a bullish consolidation ??

um just trying to learn here, hope to get a good explanation.
  • #5,355
  • Feb 17, 2015 1:09am Feb 17, 2015 1:09am
Quoting RiverTrader
Hi Alfonso, I am still waiting for your video up here: SUBJECT: Longer term position analysis DATE: Monday 16th Febuary 2015 TIME: 09:00 AM - 10:30 AM CEST (Central European Summer TIme), right at Lomdon Open When are you going to post it?
That webinar was postponed to this Friday. If you had joined to the webinar list you'd have been notified of this chane. Will upload it on Friday after the webinar.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,356
  • Feb 17, 2015 5:59am Feb 17, 2015 5:59am
Quoting rickyfx
{quote} Hello dear, i have some question about ur charts. Monthly is in bullish or bullish consolidation ok but about the monthly Demand level i have confusion. As you took that level as marubuzo demand level, now my question is that candle is a marubuzo ? the size of candle is 1046 pips (aprox) and wick+tail = 311 pips (it can very broker to broker) so wick+tail is almost 30% of the total candle. I dont think its a marubuzo candle if anything then the candle below ur marked candle is a marubuzo candle. If u use scale button to see the candle u...
You are right that candlestick is not marubuzo. so thats not a demand.

about weekly chart, we have two peaks. can you show me where it took out 2 DZ?

Weekly:

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  • #5,357
  • Feb 17, 2015 7:21am Feb 17, 2015 7:21am
Quoting Solomon1a
{quote} You are right that candlestick is not marubuzo. so thats not a demand. about weekly chart, we have two peaks. can you show me where it took out 2 DZ? Weekly: {image}


on the left those are compressed supply but supply.

http://s24.postimg.org/ozk8sbmn9/screenshot_513.png
  • #5,358
  • Feb 18, 2015 6:32am Feb 18, 2015 6:32am
Still holding AUD/NZD short from WK supply zone. Price broke lower, so we officially still have a weekly downtrend.

If Descending D1 TL is broken, I will be thinking of taking profits. Price is at all time lows but it couldn't break lower

It's too low to short, we need those all time lows broken solidly, minimum a Weekly candle close lower or it could easily become a fakeout.

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,359
  • Feb 18, 2015 6:36am Feb 18, 2015 6:36am
Omnipresent D1 20 EMA is holding on EUR/USD. D1 is ranging and been boing nothing for for than 2 weeks.

Price could rally into WK SZ, but right now there is no trade setup available, waiting and doing nothing on the euro for now

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,360
  • Feb 18, 2015 7:35am Feb 18, 2015 7:35am
Quoting panoramia
Omnipresent D1 20 EMA is holding on EUR/USD. D1 is ranging and been boing nothing for for than 2 weeks. Price could rally into WK SZ, but right now there is no trade setup available, waiting and doing nothing on the euro for now {image}

cant we trade the daily fresh demand level nested within monthly area of demand ?
that level has 2:1 imabalance and broke trendline.
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