$13K to over $1M in 3 months | Forex Factory

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Attachments: $13K to over $1M in 3 months
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$13K to over $1M in 3 months

  • #1
  • First Post: Feb 14, 2015 9:28pm Feb 14, 2015 9:28pm
In Van Tharp's 2010 book Super Trader he wrote about a trader who claimed to run his live account from 13 k$ to over 1 M$ in 3 months. It sounded truthful to me. Enough details were given for a backtest verification (correcting for an error in the start day). I tried backtesting a few strategies with various parameters close to what he used. (The trader did not disclose the actual strategy he used.)

I hit on a case of about 69x across those 3 months--essentially right on his claim.

Changing nothing but the start day (still 3 month runs) in subsequent months, each trial lost money! Oops!

A chart of those 3 months showed a strongly rising trend with very little noise. He caught the beginning and end very closely, and kept the pedal to the metal throughout.

So we arrive at (2 lines from C. Faith Way of the Turtle, 2 from me):

The trend is your friend
‛til the bend at the end;
Better if quiet
And not a riot.

In 1979 I opened a commodity account with EF Hutton and started trading (mostly gold), knowing little more than support-resistance lines and trend lines. I caught gold around the time it began its parabolic ascent to orbit. I traded “all-in” on advances, then closed positions when gold took a breather. Then back in when the recent high was broken. In 9 months my account went to 30x at maximum, but was at about 20x when the dust settled. With gold broken, I went back to work a few years later.

The lesson: catch the beginning of a low-noise trend and stay all-in until the end.

Easy, huh?

If you were entertained by this real-life account, then whenever you identify the beginning of a low-noise trend that will run for the next 3 to 9 months, please let me know.
  • #2
  • Feb 15, 2015 1:21am Feb 15, 2015 1:21am
When will people understand that it's not about a certain method?
Yeah?! Well.. you know, that's just like.. your opinion man! - Big Lebowski
  • #3
  • Feb 15, 2015 5:49am Feb 15, 2015 5:49am
Quoting Yuri57
When will people understand that it's not about a certain method?
It's easy to understand, but very hard to do.
  • #4
  • Feb 15, 2015 6:15am Feb 15, 2015 6:15am
Quoting timingchain
In Van Tharp's 2010 book Super Trader he wrote about a trader who claimed to run his live account from 13 k$ to over 1 M$ in 3 months. It sounded truthful to me. Enough details were given for a backtest verification (correcting for an error in the start day). I tried backtesting a few strategies with various parameters close to what he used. (The trader did not disclose the actual strategy he used.) I hit on a case of about 69x across those 3 months--essentially right on his claim. Changing nothing but the start day (still 3 month runs)...

Yeah he was lucky in 1979, but in the last decade I read in the internet that Curtis Faith of the famed Turtle Traders is BROKE. You can check it in the internet.
  • #5
  • Feb 15, 2015 6:53am Feb 15, 2015 6:53am
Quoting 01donatas
{quote} It's easy to understand, but very hard to do.
I agree. There will always be trending markets other than currency markets. The challenge is adapting to the current "characteristics" of the current instrument you are trading. eg. stoploss/price action. You can make good money if you ride the waves without getting stopped out in a low noise market which does not last forever.

Eurusd from May 2014 to Aug 2014 is a good example then it started ranging before the recent downtrend again into 1.10 region and now ranging again. I rode these 2 time periods each time staying out during ranging periods. Of course other pairs were nice like Usdjpy will not go into details( also ranging now ). People will debate how do you know when the trend or range start. That took years of hard work in price action, S/R. The R/R in trends is high easily eating up small losses to be profitable and that is where position sizing comes in. Of course this is only one of the ways I trade and this is only my opinion.
  • #6
  • Feb 15, 2015 8:38am Feb 15, 2015 8:38am
Quoting AthrunZala
{quote} Yeah he was lucky in 1979, but in the last decade I read in the internet that Curtis Faith of the famed Turtle Traders is BROKE. You can check it in the internet.
Even the great Jesse Livermore went bust--more than once. [Can't help but wonder what it was like to have 100 M$ in 1929.]

Richard Dennis had at least one account go bust.

BTW, the 1979 caper was mine. I avoided going bust in my accounts by walking away when I realized I really didn't know what I was doing.
  • #7
  • Edited 1:04pm Feb 15, 2015 12:49pm | Edited 1:04pm
Quoting noobistrader
{quote}.................... People will debate how do you know when the trend or range start. .........
This is self deceptive thinking. There are no guarantees how long a trend (minor or mega)will last once it starts.

By now, everyone here should have understood that we live in a very dynamic world and this market can do anything at any time. One should not be hopeful nor fearful while trading. This is possible only if one's risk is covered.

This is all about risk management and timing, fundamental and technical studies help but factors influencing these studies are ever-changing.

Someone mentioned Jesse. He was a fuckin' good money manager and nothing else, but a very high risk person not just in trading but in all aspects of his life. He used to drive past red traffic light as if he fuckin' owned New York and there were no women, children and other people in the city. One reason, my mother decided to give to charity whatever she got from uncle's inheritance. It was a right thing to do.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #8
  • Feb 15, 2015 3:31pm Feb 15, 2015 3:31pm
Quoting 01donatas
{quote} It's easy to understand, but very hard to do.
Cut losses let your, Winners run. Works for ALL systems on FF.

Still very hard to do for many.
All Assets NAS100 GLD BTC AUS JPY GBP All Time Return: 17.5%
  • #9
  • Feb 15, 2015 3:42pm Feb 15, 2015 3:42pm
Quoting timingchain
The lesson: catch the beginning of a low-noise trend and stay all-in until the end. Easy, huh? If you were entertained by this real-life account, then whenever you identify the beginning of a low-noise trend that will run for the next 3 to 9 months, please let me know.
Bonds? Everybody can't be wrong all the time forever.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #10
  • Feb 15, 2015 5:00pm Feb 15, 2015 5:00pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} ...Someone mentioned Jesse. He was a fuckin' good money manager and nothing else, but a very high risk person not just in trading but in all aspects of his life...
His massive risk-taking could well have been connected to his depressive personality. Any suicide is a sorrowful event. But your view is certainly understandable.

Your life got off to an interesting start.
  • #11
  • Edited 7:17pm Feb 15, 2015 5:41pm | Edited 7:17pm
can he show the withdraw? pls remember, when you want to withdraw with 1m, then the broker will make trouble to you.
can he show the withdraw?
  • #12
  • Feb 15, 2015 7:05pm Feb 15, 2015 7:05pm
Quoting Chicky
By now, everyone here should have understood that we live in a very dynamic world and this market can do anything at any time.

By now, everyone here should have an understanding that longevity and profitability are not Chicky's Forte!

Dynamic world, but market can do anything?

How's bout just a dynamic market in that setting static profits and stops are as much guesses and gambles as having completely blind trades...

You see, directionality and market dynamics coincide with what the individual describes as reasonable profit vs reasonable risk...and guys like this fucking Wanker, Chicklets, still have no idea.

Sure, he can quote you line and verse on anything Jesse Liverbloat, but cannot actually give you an idea of how to trade...

Perfect Example:
Quoting Chicky
This is possible only if one's risk is covered. This is all about risk management and timing, fundamental and technical studies help but factors influencing these studies are ever-changing.
How does one cover their risk? A hedge?? a Nedge???

Risk management and timing being, what...guessing when to take a trade????

The fundamentals, as average retail traders, will always steer you blind. The market knows long before you will ever read the black on white print...so, this is as worthless as advice as you will ever read.

Reasonable expectation...
Reasonable risk...
Highest probabilities...

These are where you will find profitability...everything else, is like every post that Chicky has on FF...PURE BULLSHIT!!
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #13
  • Feb 15, 2015 7:07pm Feb 15, 2015 7:07pm
Quoting datdle
can he shiw the withdraw? pls remember, when you want to withdraw with 1m, then the broker will make trouble to you. can he whow the with draw?
The trader is anonymous.
  • #14
  • Feb 16, 2015 10:44am Feb 16, 2015 10:44am
Quoting Yuri57
When will people understand that it's not about a certain method?
I totally concur with you there. There us no certain method that will guarantee you profits in Forex trading. People say that some strategies do work on multiple occasions. I do not dispute that, but if you really want to be a successful trader, then you must evolve with the market. Those strategies of yester-years may need tweaking to work in market that remains the most dynamic of them all.
  • #15
  • Feb 16, 2015 2:36pm Feb 16, 2015 2:36pm
Life is so much simpler when you give up the first and last 8th of a trend.
  • #16
  • Feb 16, 2015 4:33pm Feb 16, 2015 4:33pm
Quoting TranceTrader
Life is so much simpler when you give up the first and last 8th of a trend.
Nathan Rothschild said he became wealthy through trading by being the last in and the first out. [not that I am a fan of the Rothschilds]
  • #17
  • Feb 17, 2015 8:02am Feb 17, 2015 8:02am
Quoting timingchain
Then whenever you identify the beginning of a low-noise trend that will run for the next 3 to 9 months, please let me know.
haha! exactly what i thought of after reading your post

But i think, it is not about the methods when it comes to real life stories like this, It is usually about the very simple stuff that we overlook like Risk management and psychology which can work wonders for your account. Very simple but yet very hard to follow.
  • #18
  • Feb 17, 2015 11:27am Feb 17, 2015 11:27am
Quoting Ashtalak
{quote} ...But i think, it is not about the methods when it comes to real life stories like this, It is usually about the very simple stuff that we overlook like Risk management and psychology which can work wonders for your account. Very simple but yet very hard to follow.
Preparation:
define risk you're willing to take--risk management.
commit yourself--psych prep.
have a recovery plan if you go bust--confidence builder.

Action:
find a trend.
go fast when the trend goes fast, slow when it goes slow, stop when it stops.

No complex technical stuff here.
It looks so simple when written down like this, but ever so hard to implement.
  • #19
  • Last Post: Apr 26, 2018 11:37am Apr 26, 2018 11:37am
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