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  • #7,181
  • Feb 12, 2015 9:34am Feb 12, 2015 9:34am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} trying to fill USO Jul/Oct $27/$28 calls for $0.10!
I don't have futures options permission checked on my platform, but it would be interesting to know what premium one can get for /CL Mar 20/80 strangle... Also for Apr expiry.... you know, very, very wide... Because /CL won't be there, no matter what talking heads says...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,182
  • Feb 12, 2015 9:42am Feb 12, 2015 9:42am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} I don't have futures options permission checked on my platform, but it would be interesting to know what premium one can get for /CL Mar 20/80 strangle... Also for Apr expiry.... you know, very, very wide... Because /CL won't be there, no matter what talking heads says...
I can trade futures options on my IB account and do sometimes there. I spend more of my time on the (3) IRA accounts, more important to me for tax purposes, and I can't trade futures options on them, which is a shame, but, oh well.

I was hanging around to see the natgas injection data, /NG supported somewhat - I just need to get thru the long weekend and see natgas slide next week a little to help my spread. Bigger trades are my SPY spreads, they are still in the hunt....

Glad to see you back, SDog, hope you are no worse for wear
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,183
  • Feb 12, 2015 9:52am Feb 12, 2015 9:52am
Quoting The Fool
.... Glad to see you back, SDog, hope you are no worse for wear
Thanks man.

I think volatility will rise again, so I entered VXX Mar 30/28 bullish put spread for $0.86 credit. Buying on the weakness.
Will look to manage the trade early, If I can.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,184
  • Feb 12, 2015 10:38am Feb 12, 2015 10:38am
Another VXX trade

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TP-VXX.PNG Size: 54 KB


I was thinking to add this also, or another bullish put spread, like Mar 29/27...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,185
  • Feb 12, 2015 11:27am Feb 12, 2015 11:27am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I like cheap calendars, especially when they say they will pay 15:1 {image}
I must read about ITM spreads again, I don't remember anything now, and first reaction when I see such things is "assignment risk"...
I know you made money on such a spread before, how realistic assignment is there? (because of position size, leaving enough money for margin reqs and so on...)
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,186
  • Feb 12, 2015 11:39am Feb 12, 2015 11:39am
Complex Vertical Spreads...

(maybe I will do that also, when I grow up, but I like simple stuff more... also, there are 6 options involved here, talk about commissions )

from video >>> Exploring Complex Vertical Spreads <<<

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Robyn_DRRS-1.PNG Size: 581 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Robyn_DRRS-2.PNG Size: 550 KB


Interesting stuff.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,187
  • Feb 12, 2015 12:04pm Feb 12, 2015 12:04pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} I must read about ITM spreads again, I don't remember anything now, and first reaction when I see such things is "assignment risk"... I know you made money on such a spread before, how realistic assignment is there? (because of position size, leaving enough money for margin reqs and so on...)
well, hasn't happened yet . What I always hear is early assignment is extremely unlikely. I hear assignment risk only becomes real on the last day b4 expiry and also that assignment risk on etf stock options is very low anyway.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,188
  • Feb 12, 2015 12:05pm Feb 12, 2015 12:05pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} well, hasn't happened yet . What I always hear is early assignment is extremely unlikely. I hear assignment risk only becomes real on the last day b4 expiry and also that assignment risk on etf stock options is very low anyway.
If you look at options Time and Sales, you see lots and lots of itm spreads being traded, they are often done in the large end of the size range.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,189
  • Feb 12, 2015 12:15pm Feb 12, 2015 12:15pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} If you look at options Time and Sales, you see lots and lots of itm spreads being traded, they are often done in the large end of the size range.
Re Times and Sales - on IB, I don't get anything for spreads, just blank space, I have info only for single options, quantity and prices, but I also don't know what are sold and what are bought...

Hmm... some volume on that VXX spread I did. So I am not the only one.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,190
  • Feb 12, 2015 12:34pm Feb 12, 2015 12:34pm
Mighty SPX is approaching resistance...

Could THIS be a possible scenario? 2091 on CFDs is about 2084/5 on /ES

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SPX-2090-short.PNG Size: 269 KB


Casting the bait @ 2090...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,191
  • Feb 12, 2015 1:14pm Feb 12, 2015 1:14pm
Quoting The Fool
Bigger trades are my SPY spreads, they are still in the hunt....
SPY spreads getting hammered, but not past expiry b/e. The Mar one not even close, but I'm more worried about it than the one expiring next week, because of the long dte I need to get through. Not getting filled on SLV and USO spreads I tried to enter at today's open....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,192
  • Feb 12, 2015 1:23pm Feb 12, 2015 1:23pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Re Times and Sales - on IB, I don't get anything for spreads, just blank space, I have info only for single options, quantity and prices, but I also don't know what are sold and what are bought... Hmm... some volume on that VXX spread I did. So I am not the only one.
I have not looked at IB Time/Sales data. But you might be able to find spreads by looking at the time - if there are two YHOO trades made at the exact same time and with the same number of contracts, that will likely be a spread of some kind. Then, bought/sold is trickier - if the sale price for each trade is listed and the market prices also, you can see where the trade was made relative to the market spread & then know if the trade was long or short.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,193
  • Feb 12, 2015 2:01pm Feb 12, 2015 2:01pm
Quoting The Fool
SPY spreads getting hammered, but not past expiry b/e. The Mar one not even close, but I'm more worried about it than the one expiring next week, because of the long dte I need to get through.....
Feb/Feb4 SPY $209.5/$211.00 has b/e @ $210.30, hoping we won't blow through that tomorrow! I need more theta and a little pullback between now and 2/20.

Big news of Germany capitulation to Greece will unleash an orgy of asset buying. ECB's QE to be sprung in a couple weeks and I'm sure DAX et al will all go vertical. If you want to spread bullish on SPY give yourself plenty of room, past $215 for March....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,194
  • Feb 12, 2015 2:24pm Feb 12, 2015 2:24pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Feb/Feb4 SPY $209.5/$211.00 has b/e @ $210.30, hoping we won't blow through that tomorrow! I need more theta and a little pullback between now and 2/20. Big news of Germany capitulation to Greece will unleash an orgy of asset buying. ECB's QE to be sprung in a couple weeks and I'm sure DAX et al will all go vertical. If you want to spread bullish on SPY give yourself plenty of room, past $215 for March....
I am expecting a 20 point drop like on a pic above... after that - idk... depends of the news.

Every Ukraine and/or Greece related news will have much more impact on DAX and European indices. DAX can go ballistic, but SPX - not so sure about that. Europe has fresh QE, lower valuations, cheap EUR... US doesn't have QE, has strong $, and imminent rate hike... mixed earnings so far... If you draw a channel on SPX, top is around 2140... I don't see any fundamental reason to go past that, but market is market... it will go up if money is cheap. AAPL alone can't drag the whole market up forever, IMO. I decided to take a break on trading NQ because one stock has enormous influence... and ES is easier to trade.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,195
  • Edited 11:14pm Feb 12, 2015 10:30pm | Edited 11:14pm
SPY call spreads looking precarious. Mar/Mar5 $210/$211 is very dicey, lotsa dte left for SPY to wreck my account. B/e @ $212.80, could easily see that by next week if the bull market does not cool its jets. Need a pullback. Or an adjustment. I paid $1.05 for both options. The Mar $210 calls are now at $2.70/$2.73. The Mar4 $211 calls are @ $2.32/$2.44. If I buy back the Mar $210 then sell the Mar4 $211, I will be $0.41 in the hole (+comms), but I will own a Mar4/Mar5 $211 calendar, as shown below....could end up making a profit if SPY finishes the end of Mar like $209.15 - $212.85....dicier still, but I will have limited my loss to the $0.41 debit...just a smaller shit sandwich than the original trade.

I could also buy back the Mar $210 for $2.73/sell Mar5 $210 for $3.01, then I would have a short Mar5 $210/211 vertical for $0.28 credit. That trade has a worse b/e than the original diagonal, and almost as steep a loss on the P/L. But if SPY reverses in Mar and finishes below that b/e I will come out ahead and at least keep the $0.28...

What else can I do? Maybe sit tight til next week anyway....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-02-12_SPY1.png Size: 40 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-02-12_spy6.png Size: 37 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,196
  • Feb 13, 2015 12:30am Feb 13, 2015 12:30am
Feb SPY diagonal maybe a little better....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-02-12_spy7.png Size: 38 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,197
  • Feb 13, 2015 8:22am Feb 13, 2015 8:22am
Quoting The Fool
SPY call spreads looking precarious. Mar/Mar5 $210/$211 is very dicey, lotsa dte left for SPY to wreck my account. B/e @ $212.80, could easily see that by next week if the bull market does not cool its jets. Need a pullback. Or an adjustment.
Yeah... I closed my Mar/Mar5 207/208 with a $0.22 loss, I had just 2 of them. Before that entry I didn't had a good understanding of "more room and less dte" factor, as the thing of the great importance when trading diagonals.

I am holding 210/211... will take a loss if necessary, because I currently don't see a great way to adjust that spread.


Anyways, expecting a dip at open, since SPX is at resistance now... I entered a short of SPX CFDs @ 2090.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SPX-02-13.PNG Size: 308 KB


Next level is around 2100 - at the black channel line... IMO. Keeping things simple: I cannot buy anything at resistance, so if it breaks it now, well, tough luck.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,198
  • Feb 13, 2015 9:31am Feb 13, 2015 9:31am
Looking strong so far...

Continued Room to the Upside in the SPX

good article, simple charts, nice channels... all setts up nicely to take us to another ATH...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,199
  • Edited 10:18am Feb 13, 2015 10:05am | Edited 10:18am
Quoting StrayDog
Looking strong so far... Continued Room to the Upside in the SPX good article, simple charts, nice channels... all setts up nicely to take us to another ATH...
and UST's are falling off a cliff. A 2-week drop >$10 for TLT has only happened a couple times......barring bad news out of the Eurozone, I'd say we are on the way to SnP 2,150 to 2,200 in Q2, no prob
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-02-13_TLT.png Size: 89 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,200
  • Feb 13, 2015 10:26am Feb 13, 2015 10:26am
Quoting StrayDog
Keeping things simple: I cannot buy anything at resistance, so if it breaks it now, well, tough luck.
And it looks that way... out of my position, since price action this 2 hours was all about going sideways to grinding higher. Not interested in fighting that anymore.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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