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Trading Crude Oil with price action + indicator

  • #421
  • Feb 4, 2015 3:29pm Feb 4, 2015 3:29pm
An interesting chart prepared by Deutsche Bank shows how 12 energy states contributed to job growth in US during last couple of years. It seems that 50K layoffs declared to be due in coming months can hurt the nearest payrolls
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  • #422
  • Feb 4, 2015 4:08pm Feb 4, 2015 4:08pm
Quoting jackstrong
An interesting chart prepared by Deutsche Bank shows how 12 energy states contributed to job growth in US during last couple of years. It seems that 50K layoffs declared to be due in coming months can hurt the nearest payrolls {image}
yep, but there are many oil-related jobs beyond the States where the actual oilfields are. West coast States' ports, railroads and trucking industries have been very busy shipping pipe, fracking sand, and other materials to the fields. I have seen ginormous buildings full of the fracking sand in ports where I work, some say that fracking sand alone is almost half of their business.... Boom and bust, then boom again? - we'll see...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #423
  • Feb 5, 2015 7:50am Feb 5, 2015 7:50am
The U.S is potentially culpable of the current Crude price crises. The inventory numbers released yesterday indicate that during that period (of rising jobs numbers driven by Energy states), the drilling activity has been blown over the roof, which now suggests that production is expected to remain high for the next few months. the News hit Oil prices and energy stocks badly and certainly shows that the recent recovery was nothing more than a sucker rally.
  • #424
  • Feb 5, 2015 11:23am Feb 5, 2015 11:23am
so far its zig zag on oil,its good for scalping,but not knowing reasons behind oil drive,is confusing-i mean we seen 58+ on brent and same day it went down 5$ per barrel.
  • #425
  • Feb 5, 2015 1:23pm Feb 5, 2015 1:23pm
I have never seen crude sell off so many handles without a correction. Playing the long side with USO & selling OTM calls.
  • #426
  • Feb 6, 2015 3:31am Feb 6, 2015 3:31am
WTI Crude Oil formed a positive day reversal yesterday reversing the previous day’s performance and probably resuming the move up toward for my target at 57,50. I wait for a buying opportunity.
  • #427
  • Edited 6:08am Feb 6, 2015 5:53am | Edited 6:08am
look at data thats cooming out today for cad as numbers are predicted positive,and given time of the year it may as well turn out to be true,so this alone could lift oil price close to 60$ on brent
  • #428
  • Feb 6, 2015 6:33am Feb 6, 2015 6:33am
Why is Crude oil moving the same direction as USD now?

Can someone enlighten me?

Regards,
Kevin
  • #429
  • Feb 6, 2015 11:47am Feb 6, 2015 11:47am
Quoting actorial
Why is Crude oil moving the same direction as USD now? Can someone enlighten me? Regards, Kevin
I know that the general view is that the USD always moves in the opposite direction to the price of Oil. However, the recovery in the price of oil witnessed over the last few days had a lot to do with the striking miners. And then came the inventory numbers from the U.S that pulled back the price momentarily. Now we can see that the recovery has resumed course, but I fear that it is ill-fated because at the moment there are several headwinds to this rally continuing for extended periods. There is still oversupply and demand appears to be waning (to my surprise). Nonetheless, I still believe that now is a perfect time to buy long Oil.
  • #430
  • Feb 7, 2015 12:54pm Feb 7, 2015 12:54pm
Hi, what data are the best from Commitments of Traders to predict trend?
Enter Signature
  • #431
  • Feb 9, 2015 4:52am Feb 9, 2015 4:52am
WTI Crude Oil confirmed a positive closing on Friday, the indicators of the daily chart are still well positive for now but those of the weekly one remain well negative and showing a mixed picture this morning suggesting some consolidation/correction. While above 51,65 on an hourly closing, I see upside potential. Wait for a buying opportunity.
  • #432
  • Feb 9, 2015 7:52am Feb 9, 2015 7:52am
Right now, I wouldn't gamble with Crude oil on a short-term perspective. It's been very edgy over the last two weeks and certainly looks very unpredictable. A lot of fundamentals affecting the commodity too, which makes it technically challenging to make a realistic bet.
  • #433
  • Feb 9, 2015 9:38am Feb 9, 2015 9:38am
Clearly an agenda to manipulate it higher right now and take late shorts $$$. Very very obvious. Max upside is $65 for year. $35 likely to be seen later in year.
53.59- 53.95 should act as resistance in short term. Still see us going back to $50 or below this week. Targeting around 48.60, but likely going lower. This thing can drop 10% in a day as we have seen it go up 10% in a day recent weeks. To think there won't be sell offs of 10% in a day would be delusional, especially in a clear downtrend like this.
  • #434
  • Feb 9, 2015 1:36pm Feb 9, 2015 1:36pm
Powerful reaction to 53.95.. that should be it, but market acting strange.
  • #435
  • Feb 10, 2015 12:48am Feb 10, 2015 12:48am
Quoting moonshot
Right now, I wouldn't gamble with Crude oil on a short-term perspective. It's been very edgy over the last two weeks and certainly looks very unpredictable. A lot of fundamentals affecting the commodity too, which makes it technically challenging to make a realistic bet.
There will always be some economic event trading CL in futures. Either you get use to it as a trader or find another instrument. I use to have the same mentality and was only fooling myself. Crude always has factors which is why traders love it for its volatility while others fear it for the same reasons.
  • #436
  • Feb 10, 2015 11:05am Feb 10, 2015 11:05am
keep update your entry, for me selling 53/52ish tp 49.70
Let me fill my acount wallet then will take Ur advice
  • #437
  • Feb 11, 2015 1:55pm Feb 11, 2015 1:55pm
I don't know what way this is going now. I've been trading both directions. Until we break either $44 or $54 no idea..


Even the further out contracts are falling in price now
  • #438
  • Feb 11, 2015 8:39pm Feb 11, 2015 8:39pm
Scalpers market! gotta love it! Doesnt really matter which way it goes as long as it moves!
  • #439
  • Feb 12, 2015 9:55am Feb 12, 2015 9:55am
How much risk is involved in crude oil trade compared to forex trading?
  • #440
  • Feb 12, 2015 1:43pm Feb 12, 2015 1:43pm
Quoting seanwg
I don't know what way this is going now. I've been trading both directions. Until we break either $44 or $54 no idea.. Even the further out contracts are falling in price now
I would say at the moment, Crude seems very unpredictable, but I still think that it carries a bearish bias for now. Personally, I doubt whether the price of Crude Oil will go anywhere close to $55 again in the near future. But $44 or even $40 seems likely. Why, soon the high inventories reported in the US will start hitting the market, and as the U.S nears interest rates hike, that sounds good for the USD, but definitely bad for Crude Oil price.
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