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Mastering False breaks, trendline and fibonacci projections

  • #1
  • First Post: Feb 10, 2015 1:38pm Feb 10, 2015 1:38pm
Dear all,

I'm starting this thread because I think can give you some extra confidence to make that trade.
I'm using trendlines (Not the horizontal ones cause they won't work anyway) and fibonacci.
I'm using fibonacci to calculate the first target and sometimes for better entries. Sometime the target is just 20 pips from the break but my goal is to go for the big pips this time.
By big, I mean 100+ pips up to 400 per trade. This all depends on what you want.
So how does this work with risking as little as it can be and still gaining 100's of pips?
I place the Fibonacci on the longest candle for calculating my target. Does it work? the answer is yes. Does it always work? The answer is NO!
You see, every system and tradesetup will fail once in a while. But if we do it right, we keep our eyes open, we all together make the change in our tradingstyle and become profitable.
It won't be easy but once you take the time for it you will be very happy.
I don't need lagging indicators like stochastics and MACD and whatever they have, it gives you more confusion. Keep it simple and make that damn trade.
The only indicator is the Fibonacci. That's it.
Ohw and news? Yes I trade during news to.
More to follow tomorrow with sample charts.
  • #2
  • Feb 10, 2015 1:43pm Feb 10, 2015 1:43pm
Here is the first chart. Just as example. See, it's very simple, keep it simple and you'll be fine.

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  • #3
  • Feb 10, 2015 1:45pm Feb 10, 2015 1:45pm
Lesson number one! NOT ALL BEARFLAGS BREAK DOWN! When the breakout to the upside a rally will follow to catch the shorts and run for the stops.
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  • #4
  • Feb 10, 2015 1:47pm Feb 10, 2015 1:47pm
Here just took this screenshot.

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  • #5
  • Feb 10, 2015 1:50pm Feb 10, 2015 1:50pm
Here another nice setup. if it breaks down to the downside it will accelerate hard to the downside. Easy isn't it?

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  • #6
  • Feb 10, 2015 1:56pm Feb 10, 2015 1:56pm
I should have taken this one.

Now, another thing false breakouts. See that dotted line? The dotted triangle?
If price come down and goes the other way, that will give you really big pips cause false breaks are simply giving much pippos in short time with high volatility.
The blue proved again that bearflags not always mean that price will break down.

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  • #7
  • Feb 10, 2015 2:07pm Feb 10, 2015 2:07pm
EURUSD is doing NOTHING.
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  • #8
  • Feb 10, 2015 2:10pm Feb 10, 2015 2:10pm
And the last one for today. Tomorrow reversal setups.

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  • #9
  • Feb 10, 2015 2:15pm Feb 10, 2015 2:15pm
And here a failed setup. As I said, you will have failures.
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  • #10
  • Feb 10, 2015 6:50pm Feb 10, 2015 6:50pm
Serious Question, Seriously!

Forgive me, I don't mean to be an Ass or to disrespect this thread. The title actually caught my attention because I have spent countless of hours about these subjects. My post here is coming from good intentions.

So here is my question?

What is the difference between those lines you drew (and other traders draw) versus these lines below?

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  • #11
  • Feb 10, 2015 8:18pm Feb 10, 2015 8:18pm
I'm sure you have a good methodology that works for you, and possibly for many others.

I am, however, curious about the following generalization:

Quoting attilafx
I'm using trendlines (Not the horizontal ones cause they won't work anyway) and fibonacci.
I'm most interested in your reasons why horizontal lines do not work for you.

I won't dispute your reasons or be argumentative or try to convince you otherwise. I'm merely curious, that's all.
I'm not trying to convince anyone. I'm not in the "convincing" business.
  • #12
  • Feb 10, 2015 8:32pm Feb 10, 2015 8:32pm
Quote
I'm starting this thread because I think can give you some extra confidence to make that trade.
i am interested in your EXTRA!
  • #13
  • Feb 10, 2015 10:44pm Feb 10, 2015 10:44pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
Serious Question, Seriously! Forgive me, I don't mean to be an Ass or to disrespect this thread. The title actually caught my attention because I have spent countless of hours about these subjects. My post here is coming from good intentions. So here is my question? What is the difference between those lines you drew (and other traders draw) versus these lines below? {image} {image}

Hi, It is where you draw them. I see many people drawing trendlines way to early. Let market calm down, give it some sort of sideway movement like in EURUSD and start from there. You don't always need to be in the market.
  • #14
  • Feb 10, 2015 10:46pm Feb 10, 2015 10:46pm
Quoting skenobi
I'm sure you have a good methodology that works for you, and possibly for many others. I am, however, curious about the following generalization: {quote} I'm most interested in your reasons why horizontal lines do not work for you. I won't dispute your reasons or be argumentative or try to convince you otherwise. I'm merely curious, that's all.
Well, the reason is that you draw a horizontal line and it acts as kind of a magnet. price goes above, price goes below, of course there are occasions when it doesn't but go and check. It gives you many false breaks.
  • #15
  • Feb 10, 2015 11:59pm Feb 10, 2015 11:59pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
Serious Question, Seriously! Forgive me, I don't mean to be an Ass or to disrespect this thread. The title actually caught my attention because I have spent countless of hours about these subjects. My post here is coming from good intentions. So here is my question? What is the difference between those lines you drew (and other traders draw) versus these lines below? {image} {image}

lol, what do you suggest then? supply/demand?
or pure price action without trend lines?
  • #16
  • Feb 11, 2015 12:21am Feb 11, 2015 12:21am
Quoting attilafx
Dear all, I'm starting this thread because I think can give you some extra confidence to make that trade. I'm using trendlines (Not the horizontal ones cause they won't work anyway) and fibonacci. I'm using fibonacci to calculate the first target and sometimes for better entries. Sometime the target is just 20 pips from the break but my goal is to go for the big pips this time. By big, I mean 100+ pips up to 400 per trade. This all depends on what you want. So how does this work with risking as little as it can be and still gaining 100's of pips?...
Hi attilafx, can you tell us how you trade the news. Thanks.
  • #17
  • Feb 11, 2015 4:36am Feb 11, 2015 4:36am
Quoting jops
{quote} Hi attilafx, can you tell us how you trade the news. Thanks.
The same way, look for the patterns develop before the news. I was long USDJPY before NFP. They're right there you can see. I didn't take GBPUSD since I already had invested bigger in USDJPY.
  • #18
  • Feb 11, 2015 4:37am Feb 11, 2015 4:37am
Here is one fail.
AUDUSD.

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  • #19
  • Feb 11, 2015 4:38am Feb 11, 2015 4:38am
Update on GBPUSD what didn't had enough momentum yet.
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  • #20
  • Feb 11, 2015 4:39am Feb 11, 2015 4:39am
GBPJPY

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