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  • #881
  • Feb 10, 2015 7:54am Feb 10, 2015 7:54am
Quoting spyderman
Hello Graviton and others, Just found your thread and have been reading along. Only up to post 94 but really enjoying. Wanted to say hello before I continue the read as it may take awhile. I've always been a Millipede fan so and like your "different but similar" approach. Already have some questions forming but again, want to wait till I'm done reading...no doubt many will be answered. Anyway, keep up the good work.
Thanks Spydie, it's a journey. Taken from the beginning, it should lead to some pips at the end. It's good to know you are getting something out of it all. Welcome aboard!

G
  • #882
  • Feb 10, 2015 8:29am Feb 10, 2015 8:29am
Quoting felixis
{quote} the question is to locate good trends so what are good trends? its the current EURUSD trend on the monthly timeframe for example a good trend is a trend that dont have killing spikes relative to the timeframe you use this good trend always exists its just that it move from one timeframe to the other. sometimes you have a such an animal on the 1mn sometimes on the hour somtimes on the weekly detecting the onset of this situation with an ea for example could gives you an edge there is no problem to pyramid on a lower time frame if the trend...
In my opinion, spikes are only killers if you are just considering that one trade. I've been spiked out of many trades and made huge pips overall on the pair over time. Price is just one thing. If it's trending in one timeframe, it is moving the same in all timeframes. You just can't easily see that. Zoom out of the H1 far enough and you'll see the exact same price action as exists zoomed in on the daily, just with a more frequent sampling. Often, there is no real trend. It's an apparent trend, like flipping a coin heads 4 times in a row. It tells you nothing about what the next coin flip will be. Determining the difference between a real trend and an apparent trend is the real challenge. At least, that's my own humble opinion. We discussed this at length earlier in the thread, but it's good to review the basics sometimes. Best success.

G
  • #883
  • Feb 10, 2015 9:00am Feb 10, 2015 9:00am
Here is a quote from Post #98 in September 2014:

"...(It's) not hard at all to learn why the Eur/Usd has been trending down for the past several months, dropping about 900 pips since May 2014. The European banking problems and high unemployment has been all over the news. The surprising good numbers in the US economy have also headlined the news. Weak Euro, Strong USD, Technical E/U down trend confirmed by fundamentals. There were probably hundreds if not thousands of pieces of fundamental information reported in the past few months, but we only care about that information that either confirms or refutes our technical setup. If we eliminate any apparent trends with no good fundamental reason behind them, we eliminate most of the random trades with a negative expectation due to trade costs and the majority of the trends left should present good pip-making opportunities. Of course, if you take this trade, you want to be able to withstand a large retracement. In early June there was a 200 pip retracement day, in Early may there was a 150 pip day, so it stands to reason to take the trade one would want a stop-loss in that neighborhood. You don't have to lose that many pips on a retracement, you can exit anytime you want, but trading with a smaller stop might take you out before you were really ready to exit. Of course, trade size must be adjusted to make sure the stop loss isn't too large a percent of account..."

EU has dropped another 1,200 pips since then. Think you can call a bottom? Good luck with that!
  • #884
  • Feb 10, 2015 9:17am Feb 10, 2015 9:17am
Quoting nbfx
{quote} Hi EZ I too am wrestling with the Euro story and watching very closely. It is very one-sided as you say. andI can't fault your analysis. COT is very short indeed (but can always go further). Everyone and their aunt are talking Euro/Dollar parity or lower. Even in the pub last night, people who don't follow currencies or investments generally were talking Euro down which is greatly troubling. I'm reminded of the story of JP Morgan and the shoe-shine boy... Regards NB
Yes, when the general public is talking about it, the bottom is (usually) near. The COT analysis clearly shows many funds on one side of the trade ... but as you said it can always go further.

People must realize, EUR is only half of the EURUSD pair. If we get weak USD news (or fail to move USD up much with good USD news), it may be time to short the USD. The strong USD is hurting exports for US companies, among other things.

I am long a small EU position here, but like GU long better (also long near current levels). It held up well while Manufacturing Production #'s missed, and also consolidating all this week just above 1.52 which is weekly / monthly pivot point consolidation points.

EZ
  • #885
  • Feb 10, 2015 3:27pm Feb 10, 2015 3:27pm
Yeah I'm not quite ready to call a bottom just yet but rather trading the smaller swings back and forth until clarity resumes. Underlying that I have a small amount of cable long (looks more promising) a little fiber short and short some chunnel to balance/bias the mix. So hedging my bets...
NB
  • #886
  • Feb 10, 2015 3:41pm Feb 10, 2015 3:41pm
Hi G

It just occured to me to ask, I hope you don't mind us discussing the current situation here in the thread. With it being related to the ethos of your methodology of backing up with underlying fundamentals I hoped it would be sufficiently on topic. Appologies for not asking first.
NB
  • #887
  • Feb 10, 2015 4:10pm Feb 10, 2015 4:10pm
Quoting nbfx
Hi G It just occured to me to ask, I hope you don't mind us discussing the current situation here in the thread. With it being related to the ethos of your methodology of backing up with underlying fundamentals I hoped it would be sufficiently on topic. Appologies for not asking first. NB
Oh sure, that's fine. I was just debating on whether or not to chime in. I may be wrong, but I don't see that anything has changed yet with the EU trade. It's still trending down longer term and the Euro's fundamentals are still very weak and the USD is still the world's reserve currency. The big issue fundamentally is, what does the ECB want the Euro to do? Do they want it to go up or down? The central bank is the 500 lb. gorilla in this trade.
  • #888
  • Feb 10, 2015 4:49pm Feb 10, 2015 4:49pm
Thanks.

Yes. the fundy's still say essentially the same (as I said in an earlier post) according to my reading although I think that US is perhaps not quite so strong as it was 3 months ago. What has me spooked is the extreme one-sidedness of this trade and the potential for a serious and 'violent' blow-off prior to resumption. there's a lot of stops out there waiting to cascade. a string of weaker data could be enough to push back the anticipated tightening which in turn would soften the currency and take pressure off the counterparts. weaker hands get flushed out and if travelled far enough some not quite so weak hands get caught up in the flush out too. Not hard to envisage. It would provide a new opportunity to buy dollars at a better price....

NB
  • #889
  • Feb 10, 2015 5:22pm Feb 10, 2015 5:22pm
Yes, also if Greece and the EU make a compromise on the debt restructuring in the next couple of days ... that would send the EURUSD higher temporarily. I can see a rally to 1.15 or possibly 1.16 which would be a good opportunity to reshort. Personally I exited my EU small long position for small loss, but still long GU. I'll reshort EU, EG on any decent rally.

Regards,
EZ
  • #890
  • Feb 10, 2015 5:27pm Feb 10, 2015 5:27pm
EU trading in something like a 70 pip H1 range of 1.1270 to 1.1340 at the moment, waiting for a directional clue from a breakout...waiting...waiting...
  • #891
  • Feb 11, 2015 7:54am Feb 11, 2015 7:54am
Quote
(Reuters) - Federal Reserve officials are debating a historic shift in one of its core economic gauges that could lead the central bank to move even slower than now thought once it lifts its rates from rock bottom levels.
According to interviews with half a dozen current and former Fed policymakers and staff, the concept that the http://images.intellitxt.com/ast/adTypes/lb_icon1.png...

Talk about timing... This just out on my news feed. a slower pace of tightening perhaps?
  • #892
  • Feb 11, 2015 9:45am Feb 11, 2015 9:45am
Quoting nbfx
{quote} Talk about timing... This just out on my news feed. a slower pace of tightening perhaps?
Perhaps, but the die is cast. The next move by the US Fed will be to tighten. The question is when? There are many considerations. Generally, tightening is most effective when it is small and early. The Fed might decide to soften the blow a bit my slowing the runoff of their bond holdings in 2016. Most likely the initial move will be very small, like 0.25%. That has no real impact on the economy. It's almost completely psychological. The next move might not come for months as the Fed waits for the first one to be fully digested by the markets.
  • #893
  • Feb 11, 2015 9:56am Feb 11, 2015 9:56am
Thanks G - much food for thought
  • #894
  • Edited 11:27am Feb 11, 2015 11:02am | Edited 11:27am
I'll just throw up some real time charts now to Illustrate my discusson on When to hold'em and when to fold'em. Some will be winners, some will be losers. I'll just throw them up and we'll see what happens. Here's the first. A second lot has just been placed short on AU and stop loss(es) are set just above the first short as I described in my Part 1. The goal here is to get a good 2-lot entry with minimum risk. Spacing was tight, about 45 pips. I might manually exit such a trade at BE overall if a small retracement occurs. I can always then go back to the well and try again for a good entry on the same pair with no large risk. Questions?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU 2nd Lot on short.PNG Size: 69 KB
  • #895
  • Feb 11, 2015 12:41pm Feb 11, 2015 12:41pm
Quoting Graviton
I'll just throw up some real time charts now to Illustrate my discusson on When to hold'em and when to fold'em. Some will be winners, some will be losers. I'll just throw them up and we'll see what happens. Here's the first. A second lot has just been placed short on AU and stop loss(es) are set just above the first short as I described in my Part 1. The goal here is to get a good 2-lot entry with minimum risk. Spacing was tight, about 45 pips. I might manually exit such a trade at BE overall if a small retracement occurs. I can always then go back...
Hi G,

How did you see your second AU Entry. I would not have taken it because I would have liked to see a bit more weakness or a bit of a PB first. Maybe I just need to jump in to try to get that second one on?

Meanwhile, I took 83 pips out of UC as it came out of Consolidation, and now I am waiting for a PB to reenter. Maybe I should have left it on as an "anchor" because it did go for 40 more before PB.

Many thanks, AG
Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the mind.
  • #896
  • Feb 11, 2015 3:38pm Feb 11, 2015 3:38pm
Quoting AlbinaGrande
{quote} Hi G, How did you see your second AU Entry. I would not have taken it because I would have liked to see a bit more weakness or a bit of a PB first. Maybe I just need to jump in to try to get that second one on? Meanwhile, I took 83 pips out of UC as it came out of Consolidation, and now I am waiting for a PB to reenter. Maybe I should have left it on as an "anchor" because it did go for 40 more before PB. Many thanks, AG
I had a retracement come to an end on the very short TF's. 5M & 15M. Had I waited, I'd probably get a better one, but all timeframes were trending down so I just jumped in.
  • #897
  • Feb 11, 2015 3:42pm Feb 11, 2015 3:42pm
Quickly exited Euro short on CNBC news of Greek agreement. Made some pips on the trade and lucky to get out when I did. As soon as it becomes obvious the stern Germans have no intention of financing the libertine Greeks, I expect the Euro to return to it's fall and if conditions are correct I may short it again.
  • #898
  • Feb 11, 2015 3:53pm Feb 11, 2015 3:53pm
Quoting Graviton
Quickly exited Euro short on CNBC news of Greek agreement. Made some pips on the trade and lucky to get out when I did.
Glad I snugged up my stop on EU an hour ago and only lost 11. Really the wages of a very poor Entry. I suspect that there will be more downside in store for EU. Need to work on my Entries.

AG
Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the mind.
  • #899
  • Feb 11, 2015 4:25pm Feb 11, 2015 4:25pm
Quoting AlbinaGrande
{quote} Glad I snugged up my stop on EU an hour ago and only lost 11. Really the wages of a very poor Entry. I suspect that there will be more downside in store for EU. Need to work on my Entries. AG
Oh, I take lots of those little hits. One 600 pip win will cover them all and leave me well ahead though.
  • #900
  • Feb 11, 2015 7:33pm Feb 11, 2015 7:33pm
Now an example of Part 2. Putting on the third lot. Here is the way The AU short trade looks now:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU Short Part 2.PNG Size: 63 KB
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