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Price is everything

  • #29,621
  • Feb 10, 2015 11:05am Feb 10, 2015 11:05am
Quoting bigwal
"Knowing when to touch trade and why". Think about this very deeply! The market movers can not hide their intentions. {image}
Hi Warren,

Regarding the GBPJPY chart you put up in the quoted post, I'm having a go and figuring out what you're getting at here.

I see that price broke an M30/H1 SR level, retraced slightly and rather than letting price head back farther down, the bulls quickly pushed to keep the rally going.
I believe this is the FTR/FL concept that the RTM guys use.

I've certainly noticed these "pushes to continue" after a significant break being a great location for a reaction, and yes, price reacted nicely as seen on your chart.

However, what gave you the confidence to consider touch-trading it on the second time back?
Is it because that on the FTB, there was renewed buying strong enough to reach higher than on the previous swing, post-break?

Was there a particular target higher up not yet reached that meant that we had to remain in this price-region before breaking back down to the lower one?

Thanks!

By the way Warren, I've read loads of your inspirational posts on the RTM website. Really, really excellent

Andy
  • #29,622
  • Feb 10, 2015 2:17pm Feb 10, 2015 2:17pm
Quoting NaughtyPip
{quote} where was your entry?
Ahhh, i knew there was a question. entry/exit dotted line and a whole walk through as to why. Although part of it i was sleeping.

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The lift from the low i took on another chart should be self explanatory. Wasn't it bizarre that news on Greece come out and price was at demand .

Hope this clears things up

Warren
I need to finish something i started
  • #29,623
  • Feb 10, 2015 2:46pm Feb 10, 2015 2:46pm
Quoting AndyMate
{quote} Hi Warren, Regarding the GBPJPY chart you put up in the quoted post, I'm having a go and figuring out what you're getting at here. I see that price broke an M30/H1 SR level, retraced slightly and rather than letting price head back farther down, the bulls quickly pushed to keep the rally going. I believe this is the FTR/FL concept that the RTM guys use. I've certainly noticed these "pushes to continue" after a significant break being a great location for a reaction, and yes, price reacted nicely as seen on your chart. However, what gave...
Andy,

Something that has been echoed on this thread since the early days. Price is trapped within supply and demand until there is engulf. That is the market movers showing their hand. Price then wants to find WHOLESALE before it moves on.

This was an example and not a trade taken. It is the price structure in the circle then the engulfing in the box that tells me the circled structure will hold and where the trade is placed.

Thank you for your comments regarding posts.

From this thread there has been many other forums, websites and courses born. If Red were here i know he would be trading like he always has.
I like to keep things simple, there is no need for anything else.

Warren
I need to finish something i started
  • #29,624
  • Feb 10, 2015 3:19pm Feb 10, 2015 3:19pm
Bit of old skool

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I need to finish something i started
  • #29,625
  • Feb 10, 2015 3:52pm Feb 10, 2015 3:52pm
Quoting bigwal
Bit of old skool {image}
what did that look like on m15 or m30, probably even simpler
  • #29,626
  • Feb 10, 2015 5:44pm Feb 10, 2015 5:44pm
Although text heavy , i think this is very pertinent to our cause and well worth a read

The Bandwagon Theory

“Imagine a bandwagon that is rolling forward at a quickened pace. Music that is very pleasing to the ear is being played from speakers on each side of this bandwagon, and a few people currently on the back of the wagon are partying, having the time of their lives. The music, loud and clear, starts to attract many other onlookers that happen to be idly standing on the sidelines. These onlookers, unable to resist the sweet sounds being played, run to join the party that seems to be going on.

Progressively, more and more onlookers jump on the back of this bandwagon, and those few who were initially enjoying the first phase of the party begin to leave. As the crowd of new party animals on this bandwagon grows larger, the bandwagon finds it harder and harder to move forward at the same pace. It slows, enabling more and more late onlookers, witnessing the great fun, the chance to jump on. The crowd grows even larger. Larger and larger this crowd grows, until the bandwagon, heavily laden with the bodies of drunken party animals, can no longer move forward. It finally comes to a complete stop. Now that the bandwagon is at a complete standstill, more people jump on. And why not? At this point, joining the fun is easy. Absolutely no work is required, for individuals wanting to join the crowd no longer have to run to jump on board.

The nature of the bandwagon is to move forward. Its motionless state is unnatural, and therefore cannot last. It tries to move forward again, but can’t. The crowd, piled on back, is much too large. It must free itself of the heavy burden. And it does. It quickly shifts into reverse, and jolts backward, knocking a few of the party animals off the back. The music stops. Puzzled faces from the crowd begin to emerge. Before anyone figures out what’s going on, another backward jerk takes place, only this one is more violent. Another large group of people gets thrown off the back. Now, reality sets in. The fun has turned into a nightmare of epic proportions, and panic begins to run rampant. Some decide to jump to their deaths. Another thrust backwards sends an even larger group of drunken, off balance people, hurling to the muddy ground. It doesn’t stop. The jolts backward continue, each successive one more violent than the last. At this point, only a few die-hard wagon dwellers are holding on, their very lives hanging in the balance by a very thin thread. Failing to be completely free, the bandwagon angrily puts the pedal to the metal, and this final thrust backward is so vicious that its front wheels lift high off the ground, momentarily suspending the wagon in a perpendicular position. The last of the hangers-on crash to the ground, broken and maimed to no end.

At this point, a new group of onlookers emerge from the nearby woods. They are clean and serene. Each movement they make is deliberate and powerfully energetic, for they did not take part in the tragedy that just transpired. Or did they? A few of the dejected souls lying on the ground take a closer look, a look that reveals something very interesting. This seemingly new group is not new at all. It is the same group that was seen quietly exiting the party before it came to its violent end. An even closer examination by a few more beaten-down onlookers reveals something even more stunning. This group not only exited the party early, they were the originators of it! “My God,” someone exclaims.

Paralyzed, and unable to move freely, all these dejected souls can do is watch, as the masters of the game go to work, again. No sooner does the bandwagon’s wheels hit the ground than this professional platoon bolts for the wagon. In a flash they are on board. Easy. The bandwagon, now free of the larger crowd, can move forward freely and gracefully, comfortably carrying the more astute group with it. Its pace quickens, and before long a smooth elegant stride is in place. After a few miles of uninterrupted movement, someone from this masterful group flips on a switch, and suddenly the loud sounds of entertaining music start again. Someone yells, “OK everyone. Here they come. Let’s do it again.” Within moments, those who were the former victims of the backward crash become interested again. The music almost calling them from the grave. And once more, the never-ending cycle repeats.”

I read this some years back and it will always stay with me.

Warren
I need to finish something i started
  • #29,627
  • Feb 10, 2015 10:50pm Feb 10, 2015 10:50pm
uj short area coming up at 119.9
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The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #29,628
  • Feb 11, 2015 2:13am Feb 11, 2015 2:13am
Quoting bigwal
"Knowing when to touch trade and why". Think about this very deeply! The market movers can not hide their intentions. {image}
Hi Warren,

a question regarding the upper Engulfing between point A and B. Is it what you have been looking at?

Thanks
Fader
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  • #29,629
  • Feb 11, 2015 4:34am Feb 11, 2015 4:34am
Eur Usd compression

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Can you see what happened before the drop?

Warren
I need to finish something i started
  • #29,630
  • Feb 11, 2015 4:50am Feb 11, 2015 4:50am
1 Minute compression with engulf , pullback and entry.

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I need to finish something i started
  • #29,631
  • Feb 11, 2015 5:15am Feb 11, 2015 5:15am
Quoting Fader
{quote} Hi Warren, a question regarding the upper Engulfing between point A and B. Is it what you have been looking at? Thanks Fader {image}

Fader,

Yes exactly!

Is this the way that big banks and institutions are dealing with supply and demand traders ?

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Warren
I need to finish something i started
  • #29,632
  • Feb 11, 2015 5:32am Feb 11, 2015 5:32am
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I need to finish something i started
  • #29,633
  • Feb 11, 2015 5:55am Feb 11, 2015 5:55am
Quoting bigwal
{quote} Fader, Yes exactly! Is this the way that big banks and institutions are dealing with supply and demand traders ? {image} Warren
Thanks Warren
  • #29,634
  • Feb 11, 2015 6:11am Feb 11, 2015 6:11am
Little TT scalp. Maybe I closed too early but took what was on the table.
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  • #29,635
  • Feb 11, 2015 6:26am Feb 11, 2015 6:26am
Quoting bigwal
{quote} Fader, Yes exactly! Is this the way that big banks and institutions are dealing with supply and demand traders ? {image} Warren
thanx for nice charts and comments
  • #29,636
  • Feb 11, 2015 6:36am Feb 11, 2015 6:36am
Quoting bigwal
{quote} Andy, Something that has been echoed on this thread since the early days. Price is trapped within supply and demand until there is engulf. That is the market movers showing their hand. Price then wants to find WHOLESALE before it moves on. This was an example and not a trade taken. It is the price structure in the circle then the engulfing in the box that tells me the circled structure will hold and where the trade is placed. Thank you for your comments regarding posts. From this thread there has been many other forums, websites and courses...
Hi Warren,

This raises a couple of questions:

Which supply was broken by that second swing-high in the box? On my GBPJPY chart attached, you can see that I had a zone that was yet to be broken.
Did I have that zone drawn too loosely, or were you looking more at the break of the recent swing-high in the box and those previously at a similar price?

When the FTB made that higher swing, do you consider the original zone as where this new strength lies, or some new stacked demand that formed at the location of that FTB test? I'd always considered the new test as where it lay, however as your example shows, that was broken on the 2TB, yet price went back into the original zone and held well.

Thanks,

Andy

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  • #29,637
  • Feb 11, 2015 7:05am Feb 11, 2015 7:05am
Quoting bigwal
Been sharing some charts with a trader on skype he frequents this thread. "Traders helping Traders" {image}
Hi Warren,

Thanks for putting up these thought-provoking charts.

In the first example at the bottom of the chart, I see the sign of strong buyers coming engulfing supply. Price then retraces, but the bulls push to confirm the new up-trend, making a higher high. The demand cap that sourced this push is what you noted as the important marker. Price returned to it and bounced nicely.

In the second example, we had the sign of sellers coming in with that initial engulf. However the bears didn't seem to be able to make a lower low to confirm that they had seized control. Price was being held there, trapped between supply and demand. I wouldn't have had the confidence to short at the location you marked. I'd have needed a further engulfing south first to take out the demand propping price up. Am I correct in my thinking, or were you considering the test of that demand as consumption given the initial show of hands by the bears?

I may have my idea of what makes a zone/DP significant (and therefore reactive) incorrect. I assumed that if price breaks something very obvious like an SR level or a clear trend line, or if it breaks the first demand in and uptrend (vice versa for downtrend) or if it breaks another significant zone, then it is significant.
In your first 2 examples, price broke a counter zone reversing the trend, and therefore the source seemed significant.

In the third example, price didn't seem to make a significant zone as it hadn't broken anything significant. However, I see that the trade worked really well. Do I have my ideas too strict?

Thanks again

Andy
  • #29,638
  • Feb 11, 2015 8:11am Feb 11, 2015 8:11am
Andy,

I have your answer. Internet has fault, service provider on case.

Posting via mobile.

Unfortunatley not marked up chart with all the answers

Warren
I need to finish something i started
  • #29,639
  • Feb 11, 2015 8:22am Feb 11, 2015 8:22am
Thanks Warren. No rush!
  • #29,640
  • Feb 11, 2015 9:46am Feb 11, 2015 9:46am
Andy,

Chart explanation as promised.

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I need to finish something i started
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