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vsa with Malcolm

  • #26,361
  • Feb 9, 2015 7:47am Feb 9, 2015 7:47am
Took a pullback short just now and got stopped out several pips before my SL. Can anyone tell me why please? Apologies if this is slightly off topic, but it was a VSA trade!
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"Never Take a Trade You Don't Understand!" - Pres78
  • #26,362
  • Feb 9, 2015 7:52am Feb 9, 2015 7:52am
Quoting ZeeDeveel
Took a pullback short just now and got stopped out several pips before my SL. Can anyone tell me why please? Apologies if this is slightly off topic, but it was a VSA trade! {image}
Your chart shows the bid price. Your sell position would be exited, however, at the ask price (not shown). Ask > bid, therefore you were stopped at a price it appears your chart never made it to. And indeed, the bid price never did make it there, but the ask price did.
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #26,363
  • Feb 9, 2015 1:07pm Feb 9, 2015 1:07pm
Quoting xpinbar
@TEB63 Agree with most of your great idea. As far as "Speed and trend" , I have little knowledge of wyckoff , and hear that Wyckoff-VSA develops very quickly these 5 years . Seems Wyckoff still catch up with the "speed and trend" too in the era of HFT&DarkPool this is the micro-Wyckoff story today-20150209 {image}
Strewth!!!!!

Is there a price under there somewhere????????
  • #26,364
  • Feb 9, 2015 1:13pm Feb 9, 2015 1:13pm
Quoting Intel
{quote} Strewth!!!!! Is there a price under there somewhere????????

Well, that cartoon in that post present opportunity itself for Wykoff practitioners to open their own thread.
There is a winner and a loser, nothing in between.
  • #26,365
  • Feb 9, 2015 1:34pm Feb 9, 2015 1:34pm
Figured i'd post my quarterly chart dump today, seeing as we have some activity on this forum in the past few weeks. A few things inspired this post, the Wyckoff chat and HG mentioning the trend being your friend. It took me a long, long time and i've come full circle back to using P&F charts in depth. Trend is indeed your friend.

My amalgamation of VSA, fib zones and P&F to follow as usual.

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15min EU

1. NFP zone from last week. Always a great area to keep an eye on for the coming week. Today was no different.
2. The first thing that caught my attention today, two bars later was an upthrust / trap up move, whatever you want to call it. This got me more interested.
3. A zone formed later in the day after the down move in the morning.

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3min EU 1x3 P&F. All the zones are carried over from the 15min chart.

1. I took this entry this morning, the high volume at 2 in the previous chart was into the low of the NFP zone and once price printed that upthrust, I figured it was going down. Entered at 1.1342.

2. Polar bear in hawaii. A triple top buy signal in a down move, also below the MA. These are the types of trades I use to take but have since learned are a entirely pointless.

3. It doesn't fit in with my strategy as it's below the 50% and the MA but this can be taken as an aggressive entry after the high volume seen at 3 in the previous chart.

4. A better entry, well above the MA, in keeping with the now formed uptrend and above the high of the high volume zone.

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3min EU 1x3 P&F Excel

This is the chart/software that has made all the difference for me. The Sierra P&F chart isn't on a square grid so I can't draw the 45°trend lines synonymous with P&F charts. Another FF user created this Excel sheet to import data from MT4 and it has really turned my trading around. Not to mention a strict set of rules and abiding by them.

I've circled entry 4 on the Excel sheet. I didn't take this as it was nearing the top of the trend channel. In retrospect it was a good entry to take, but i'm sticking with my rules.

My management wasn't perfect today, but i'm getting there, feels like i'm getting places with this. A little hesitant to say it, but I think i've finally found my niche.
  • #26,366
  • Feb 9, 2015 2:17pm Feb 9, 2015 2:17pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
My amalgamation of VSA, fib zones and P&F to follow as usual.
Glad to hear that things are falling into place for you my friend. Fib zones that's so silly!
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #26,367
  • Feb 9, 2015 2:39pm Feb 9, 2015 2:39pm
Quoting pres78
{quote} Glad to hear that things are falling into place for you my friend. Fib zones that's so silly!
I know yeah, whoever came up with the idea to stick them on a high volume zone?! Madness.
  • #26,368
  • Feb 10, 2015 10:40am Feb 10, 2015 10:40am
When Tom Williams is talking about market makers marking the price down.. is he talking about smart money initiating selling in order to bring prices down and then test for supply...

.. or is he saying something more sinister like - the brokers and market makers artificially reduce prices to make it look like there is selling to see then how many people are willing to sell? Thus if we see a low spread, low volume downbar.. we're not only seeing a lack of supply, but also price manipulation?
"Never Take a Trade You Don't Understand!" - Pres78
  • #26,369
  • Feb 10, 2015 11:35am Feb 10, 2015 11:35am
Quoting ZeeDeveel
When Tom Williams is talking about market makers marking the price down.. is he talking about smart money initiating selling in order to bring prices down and then test for supply... .. or is he saying something more sinister like - the brokers and market makers artificially reduce prices to make it look like there is selling to see then how many people are willing to sell? Thus if we see a low spread, low volume downbar.. we're not only seeing a lack of supply, but also price manipulation?
A low spread, low volume downbar is not an example of MM marking down prices. That is them testing for supply / willing sellers at lower prices. Price manipulation whether it be MM marking up or marking down price would be on higher spread and volume bars as there will be signs of activity. This practice is the sinister approach as you called it for them to fill more orders on the opposing side. What better way to buy more at lower prices then to create false sense of sellers market...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #26,370
  • Feb 11, 2015 7:17am Feb 11, 2015 7:17am
Also this area to the right looks like absorbtion. wont be suprised to see it pop higher
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  • #26,371
  • Feb 11, 2015 10:15am Feb 11, 2015 10:15am
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  • #26,372
  • Feb 11, 2015 10:55am Feb 11, 2015 10:55am
Found a couple of very important sentences in MTM to share with other noobs. At first I didn't understand why a "no demand" was found on an up-move - "There is demand, the market is going up! Demand stronger than Supply!".

The chart is moving in a direction but the volume remains low. Up moves happen in a weak market and down moves happen in a strong market, the lack of volume on these moves indicates that the smart/big money is not participating:

Quote
"Ask yourself, "Why are they not buying or selling on this up-move?" Answer: Because they are bearish or
just negative on the market.

Alternatively, you may ask yourself, "Why are they not selling on this down-move?" Answer: Because they
are bullish!"
"Never Take a Trade You Don't Understand!" - Pres78
  • #26,373
  • Feb 14, 2015 11:38am Feb 14, 2015 11:38am
Quoting ZeeDeveel
Found a couple of very important sentences in MTM to share with other noobs. At first I didn't understand why a "no demand" was found on an up-move - "There is demand, the market is going up! Demand stronger than Supply!". The chart is moving in a direction but the volume remains low. Up moves happen in a weak market and down moves happen in a strong market, the lack of volume on these moves indicates that the smart/big money is not participating: {quote}
THank you !
  • #26,374
  • Feb 16, 2015 4:38pm Feb 16, 2015 4:38pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
Figured i'd post my quarterly chart dump today, seeing as we have some activity on this forum in the past few weeks. A few things inspired this post, the Wyckoff chat and HG mentioning the trend being your friend. It took me a long, long time and i've come full circle back to using P&F charts in depth. Trend is indeed your friend. My amalgamation of VSA, fib zones and P&F to follow as usual. {image} 15min EU 1. NFP zone from last week. Always a great area to keep an eye on for the coming week. Today was no different. 2. The first thing that caught...
Hi KinsaleForex. Can you tell me where the second chart is from? And i assume the third is from that thread? http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=301519

Looking for the best or easiest way to get point&figure charts. What do you reccomend?
  • #26,375
  • Feb 16, 2015 5:01pm Feb 16, 2015 5:01pm
Quoting joetrader0
{quote} Hi KinsaleForex. Can you tell me where the second chart is from? And i assume the third is from that thread? http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=301519 Looking for the best or easiest way to get point&figure charts. What do you reccomend?
The second is Sierra Chart but it's a custom study that I paid for with another trader a couple of years ago. Sierra have their own P&F study but the logic is incorrect and they refuse to fix it. Long story. Anyway, if you get Sierra Chart i'd be more than happy to share the study with you. It's not on a square grid and there is one small coding error that I haven't been able to fix (and Sierra programmers are expensive) so it's not perfect but it does the job.

The Excel chart is from that thread yes. It's great but obviously you have to update it yourself, the Sierra charts updating live are very handy. I use a combination of both as you can see. The Excel chart allows me to draw 45 degree trend lines, which i'm unable to do with Sierra.

I've exhaustively looked at P&F options across multiple trading softwares. These are the best options I can come up with. I'm in touch with someone who is getting a P&F app designed which will hopefully be going live soon. It's looking really good so my fingers are crossed for that. I'll post more links for that when I know!

Any other questions, feel free to send me a PM.
  • #26,376
  • Feb 17, 2015 6:03am Feb 17, 2015 6:03am
EU 10M

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  • #26,377
  • Feb 18, 2015 12:08pm Feb 18, 2015 12:08pm
Question - Massive stopping volume on this 5m chart. I considered entry but thought I'd follow the Wyckoff / Pete Fader model... So I waited for the Automatic Rally to finish, thinking a range would form and I could get in on a no supply... But the AR was so huge, price just kept going up and up and the opportunity I was looking for didn't materialise.

So should I have just gone long after the stopping volume? In the case of really large stopping volume, is it common for the AR to just take off? Is trading ARs even a bad thing? Pete Fader calls it "aggressive" I believe.
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"Never Take a Trade You Don't Understand!" - Pres78
  • #26,378
  • Feb 18, 2015 9:22pm Feb 18, 2015 9:22pm
Quoting ZeeDeveel
Question - Massive stopping volume on this 5m chart. I considered entry but thought I'd follow the Wyckoff / Pete Fader model... So I waited for the Automatic Rally to finish, thinking a range would form and I could get in on a no supply... But the AR was so huge, price just kept going up and up and the opportunity I was looking for didn't materialise. So should I have just gone long after the stopping volume? In the case of really large stopping volume, is it common for the AR to just take off? Is trading ARs even a bad thing? Pete Fader calls...
Big interest will be buying into a SC thus creating the stopping action. You as a small investor should wait for the range to play out thus after the AR and ST and wait for an upthrust, spring or break of the range with a test of the new support resistance for you to put a position on.

Google accumulation and distribution schematic and learn the sequence, then find examples of it on historical charts to familiarise yourself with the pattern.
  • #26,379
  • Feb 19, 2015 8:45am Feb 19, 2015 8:45am
Quoting ZeeDeveel
Question - Massive stopping volume on this 5m chart. I considered entry but thought I'd follow the Wyckoff / Pete Fader model... So I waited for the Automatic Rally to finish, thinking a range would form and I could get in on a no supply... But the AR was so huge, price just kept going up and up and the opportunity I was looking for didn't materialise. So should I have just gone long after the stopping volume? In the case of really large stopping volume, is it common for the AR to just take off? Is trading ARs even a bad thing? Pete Fader calls...
Hi Zee,

Olambeth is correct. There is no VSA entry there.
However, there are 2 other viable entries on your chart. One aggressive, one standard.
Can you spot them?

Also, can you see from your chart, what would have happened to your BR, if you'd have entered after every high volume bar?
Do YOU think you should have entered?
  • #26,380
  • Feb 19, 2015 10:29am Feb 19, 2015 10:29am
Excellent replies guys thank you.

So we shouldn't buy into the SC because prices may continue to drop further, with the smart money buying into it in multiple waves, leaving us with large drawdown / stop out? Thus wait for signs of supply drying up before going long?

Hopefully I've identified the entry points correctly Intel. This quiz format is pretty cool.

I also went back to examine the chart again... when I saw it I went "Oh..."
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"Never Take a Trade You Don't Understand!" - Pres78
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