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  • #20,861
  • Feb 8, 2015 12:19am Feb 8, 2015 12:19am
Interested to know people's thoughts on a Greek Exit and the effect on the Euro currency?

Let's assume Greek exit, they convert their Euro's into a Local Currency, then I see the following occurring:
1. Reduction in the money supply for the Euro's, as some of the money supply is converted.
2. Removes one of the weaker economies from the Eurozone, providing stronger economic data to support the currency.

Hence, have a strengthening affect to the Euro as a currency?

Having said that, the main risk with a Greek exit is that Portugal, Spain and even Italy could eventually go down a similar path, but I think that this is unlikely.

If Greece move to a local currency, I think they will struggle to find foreign investors to fund their debts given their history of weakening their local currency, a major risk to any foreign investor.
  • #20,862
  • Feb 8, 2015 12:34am Feb 8, 2015 12:34am
Quoting PariCovek
Interested to know people's thoughts on a Greek Exit and the effect on the Euro currency? Let's assume Greek exit, they convert their Euro's into a Local Currency, then I see the following occurring: 1. Reduction in the money supply for the Euro's, as some of the money supply is converted. 2. Removes one of the weaker economies from the Eurozone, providing stronger economic data to support the currency. Hence, have a strengthening affect to the Euro as a currency? Having said that, the main risk with a Greek exit is that Portugal, Spain and even...
In the long run it may be a positive factor for the Euro, BUT as you said, other economies may try to take advantage of it and look at their own exit plans or try to hold the EU for ransom to get better terms on their debts. The other concern is if Greece has trouble making their scheduled debt payments now, there will be the fear that they will default on some or all of the Euro debt thereby affecting the economies of the remaining EU members. This points to a fear driven weakening of the Euro in the near-term if Greece leaves, and that is a BIG IF.

GREEN pips to one and all.
  • #20,863
  • Feb 8, 2015 6:59pm Feb 8, 2015 6:59pm
Quoting kalyan
Euro seems to be in consolidation for previous fall and in preparation for next fall. I am looking for 1475 from last week. I still keep to look for this level.Between I think 1350 can be scalped at least once..Tp 1100 and 0900 where I look to exit.
Last week we had 2 touches to 1475 price going above 60 and 25 pips respectively. I could utilize only 1 entry and 1350 is scalped. But the targets have not been hit. One more hit to 1475 is possible imo for the target of 8090. Price can provide some opportunities to short even if it wants to turn short term bullish by breaking 1475.
  • #20,864
  • Feb 9, 2015 2:25am Feb 9, 2015 2:25am
AUDUSD closed on Friday making a bearish pinbar which signifies a lot selling pressure. Dropping down to H1 chart we see a confluence of a lower trend line, 61.8 fib, H3 and near term sellers. 7830 zone could give us chance for intraday setups and trading towards 7800,7770 and 7745.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #20,865
  • Feb 9, 2015 2:48am Feb 9, 2015 2:48am
EURUSD is showing double railway tracks on daily. The position is not clear yet. It is bearish but the range is bigger. Reaction to 1360 and 1375 is important now.
  • #20,866
  • Feb 9, 2015 6:01am Feb 9, 2015 6:01am
Quoting T@rantula
EURUSD is showing double railway tracks on daily. The position is not clear yet. It is bearish but the range is bigger. Reaction to 1360 and 1375 is important now.
1360 rejection is playing out fine. 1290 needs to break for further down.
  • #20,867
  • Feb 9, 2015 6:21am Feb 9, 2015 6:21am
Quoting T@rantula
AUDUSD closed on Friday making a bearish pinbar which signifies a lot selling pressure. Dropping down to H1 chart we see a confluence of a lower trend line, 61.8 fib, H3 and near term sellers. 7830 zone could give us chance for intraday setups and trading towards 7800,7770 and 7745. {image}
Hello!

If the 4H candle close above 0,783, i try a long. Descending inner trendline and 50 fib held.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #20,868
  • Feb 9, 2015 6:30am Feb 9, 2015 6:30am
Quoting T@rantula
{quote} 1360 rejection is playing out fine. 1290 needs to break for further down.
Hello!

It seems the euro continues to weaken. 1290 is important atm.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf-h1-forex-capital-markets-2.png Size: 79 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud-h4-forex-capital-markets-2.png Size: 78 KB
Enter Signature
  • #20,869
  • Feb 9, 2015 6:44am Feb 9, 2015 6:44am
Quoting T@rantula
AUDUSD closed on Friday making a bearish pinbar which signifies a lot selling pressure. Dropping down to H1 chart we see a confluence of a lower trend line, 61.8 fib, H3 and near term sellers. 7830 zone could give us chance for intraday setups and trading towards 7800,7770 and 7745. {image}
First rejection is playing out fine atm. 7800 is the first zone retest
  • #20,870
  • Feb 9, 2015 7:14am Feb 9, 2015 7:14am
Quoting jajaja
{quote} Hello! If the 4H candle close above 0,783, i try a long. Descending inner trendline and 50 fib held. {image}
I would like to see if 7800 breaks again for 7770. Then we might see some bounces. That is why i saw shorts a bit higher then early LO.

Quoting T@rantula
{quote} 1360 rejection is playing out fine. 1290 needs to break for further down.
Quoting jajaja
{quote} Hello! It seems the euro continues to weaken. 1290 is important atm.
1270 now.
  • #20,871
  • Feb 9, 2015 7:14am Feb 9, 2015 7:14am
Quoting jajaja
{quote} Hello! It seems the euro continues to weaken. 1290 is important atm. {image} {image} {image}
EUR/USD; EUR/CHF; EUR/AUD is clear.
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  • #20,872
  • Feb 9, 2015 7:27am Feb 9, 2015 7:27am
I'm looking for a short entry in eur/gbp (possible BPC).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp-h4-forex-capital-markets.png Size: 77 KB
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  • #20,873
  • Feb 9, 2015 9:03am Feb 9, 2015 9:03am
1270 is the major intraday resistance. Looking for a sell around 1400 zone 50 pip SL.
  • #20,874
  • Feb 10, 2015 2:30am Feb 10, 2015 2:30am
AUDUSD is falling nicely from yesterday analysis. I am paying attention to 7770. That level could reject the pair.
  • #20,875
  • Feb 10, 2015 2:50am Feb 10, 2015 2:50am
EURUSD is showing opposite patterns. We have a huge M bearish pattern followed by Inverted head and shoulders. Thats indicates an indecision. I am definitely favoring selling BUT only after a jump. First zone to sell 1380-1400. If 1450 fails we might see 1620. The pair is news driven at the moment. The catalyst for the move will be Greece.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #20,876
  • Feb 10, 2015 2:57am Feb 10, 2015 2:57am
Strong selling of Gold on London Open, very strange. Was getting some good buying during Asian session earlier.

I would have thought there was going to be more buying of Gold ahead of a defiant Greek Govt and its meetings with OECD (today) and EU Finance Ministers (tomorrow). Bizarre.

Still holding long positions despite in the Red.
  • #20,877
  • Feb 10, 2015 3:13am Feb 10, 2015 3:13am
Quoting PariCovek
Strong selling of Gold on London Open, very strange. Was getting some good buying during Asian session earlier. I would have thought there was going to be more buying of Gold ahead of a defiant Greek Govt and its meetings with OECD (today) and EU Finance Ministers (tomorrow). Bizarre. Still holding long positions despite in the Red.
Yes, a strong selling on GOld, reflected moderately on EURUSD. Market is definitely news driven at the moment.
  • #20,878
  • Feb 10, 2015 4:12am Feb 10, 2015 4:12am
Quoting T@rantula
AUDUSD closed on Friday making a bearish pinbar which signifies a lot selling pressure. Dropping down to H1 chart we see a confluence of a lower trend line, 61.8 fib, H3 and near term sellers. 7830 zone could give us chance for intraday setups and trading towards 7800,7770 and 7745. {image}
Its +60 , i suggest exiting from shorts now.
  • #20,879
  • Feb 10, 2015 6:11am Feb 10, 2015 6:11am
Quoting T@rantula
EURUSD is showing opposite patterns. We have a huge M bearish pattern followed by Inverted head and shoulders. Thats indicates an indecision. I am definitely favoring selling BUT only after a jump. First zone to sell 1380-1400. If 1450 fails we might see 1620. The pair is news driven at the moment. The catalyst for the move will be Greece. {image}
i think will go down very instable moment .
i see your opinion on grece getting out of euro and your expirience as weel in one of your webbinaries and y agree whit it .
people need to learn to understend what they are doing wen they vote .
Scalping
  • #20,880
  • Feb 10, 2015 6:19am Feb 10, 2015 6:19am
Quoting T@rantula
AUDUSD is falling nicely from yesterday analysis. I am paying attention to 7770. That level could reject the pair.
Rejecting it for +30 now!
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