Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 266 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #5,301
  • Edited 7:10pm Feb 8, 2015 6:57pm | Edited 7:10pm
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Dear alfonso this is the Longterm EURUSD analysis and my Question is : The level i added with XXX can we considered the 1st real long term(6month candle) Demand that have been breached and the market befor that level was in consolidation but not in a downtrend!!!!!


Also the 2nd Question : on the third chart
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  • #5,302
  • Feb 8, 2015 9:18pm Feb 8, 2015 9:18pm
Hi Alfonzo, excellent job. Have you done some spanish webinar like you have in your youtube channel?

Regards

Cardenas
  • #5,303
  • Feb 9, 2015 2:16am Feb 9, 2015 2:16am
Quoting rickyfx
{quote} Hello Ivan, I think that was valid trade on Daily as per realignment theory. Alfonso also took that trade u can check some previous post. {quote} As per the rules we need 1 candle consolidate away from the level and stay above/below the level, here next candle touches the level so i guess it show us the balance not imbalance and so i guess this trade wasn't valid.
Thanks for the comment
  • #5,304
  • Feb 9, 2015 4:55am Feb 9, 2015 4:55am
Quoting ghcardenas
Hi Alfonzo, excellent job. Have you done some spanish webinar like you have in your youtube channel? Regards Cardenas
Hey Cardenas,

I wish I could hold webinars in Spanish, but I don't have such a public, there are a few traders that can speak spanish but not enough to spend time on that. Besides it would be doing the job twice. Since English is the language that most of us speak, the "official language of the world", the webinars have to be in English even if a lot of non-english speakers are left out, sorry

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,305
  • Feb 9, 2015 4:57am Feb 9, 2015 4:57am
Quoting ahmedalhosenyy
{image} {image} Dear alfonso this is the Longterm EURUSD analysis and my Question is : The level i added with XXX can we considered the 1st real long term(6month candle) Demand that have been breached and the market befor that level was in consolidation but not in a downtrend!!!!! Also the 2nd Question : on the third chart {image}
Bigger picture trend on EUR/USD is down, 3 months downtrend and 3M SZ available higher. Regarding your question to short in such bigger timeframes, the 3M supply is much higher than the level you were pointing out. There will be MN and WK supply zones lower, those zones need to be taken out before those shorts can happen. Bias is shorts definitely.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,306
  • Feb 9, 2015 5:02am Feb 9, 2015 5:02am
I need some help in validating SD zones correctly. This question is about flip zones. As rules say a level is validated if it has removed opposing level, trendline or a flip zone.
1. Do I understand right that flip zone is a zone with a series of highs (or lows) which can not close above (below)? As painted on my chart (red rectangle)?
2. A removal of such zone makes level valid (blue rectangle)?
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Click to Enlarge Name: AUDNOKDaily.png Size: 45 KB
  • #5,307
  • Feb 9, 2015 5:03am Feb 9, 2015 5:03am
Quoting sympathy
{quote} Ricky you are right about the EJ monthly chart. If you look closely, you will see that the impulses are towards the upside so generally it is consolidating to the upside. Monthly demand zone is in control( continuation pattern) withing a flip zone, buying is the way.{image}
See where that Monthly demand zone is on EUR/JPY. It's nested right within a 3 months CP demand zone, still a lot of room to reach the opposing supply zone at all time highs.
Previous 3 months supply zone taken out by the CP demand zone, clear 3 months uptrend, Monthly chart trying to realigning with 3 months uptrend on EUR/JPY

Bias is now longs on EUR/JPY. Monthly and 3 Months demand zone in control. See attached 3 months chart for EUR/JPY

Cheers,
Alfonso

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,308
  • Feb 9, 2015 5:06am Feb 9, 2015 5:06am
Quoting Ivan-M
I need some help in validating SD zones correctly. This question is about flip zones. As rules say a level is validated if it has removed opposing level, trendline or a flip zone. 1. Do I understand right that flip zone is a zone with a series of highs (or lows) which can not close above (below)? As painted on my chart (red rectangle)? 2. A removal of such zone makes level valid (blue rectangle)? {image}
A flip zone is a past zone, it's not a current imbalance so it's not used at all for validating or negating levels/trades as per the rules. We are not allowed to cut through candles, that's forbidden. Flip zones are used as confluences but not as validated zones since we're not allowed to cut through candles.

We must look up and left and down and left until we hit a candle, then we stop and start looking for supply and demand imbalances there, without cutting through the candles we've hit.

Cheer,;
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,309
  • Feb 9, 2015 5:14am Feb 9, 2015 5:14am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} A flip zone is a past zone, it's not a current imbalance so it's not used at all for validating or negating levels/trades as per the rules. We are not allowed to cut through candles, that's forbidden. Flip zones are used as confluences but not as validated zones since we're not allowed to cut through candles. We must look up and left and down and left until we hit a candle, then we stop and start looking for supply and demand imbalances there, without cutting through the candles we've hit. Cheer,; Alfonso
It was just an example
I'm talking about this rule:
When is a supply or demand imbalance confirmed as a level?

A zone or imbalance is validated under these 2 specific circumstances:

  1. A Trendline has been broken at a bigger timeframe or a flip zone (WoW trade)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,310
  • Feb 9, 2015 5:27am Feb 9, 2015 5:27am
And another question about validating zones. Now I would like to ask about the rule of "removing opposing zone". It's a core rule. But how many zones do we need to validate? Difficult to explain... Well, we have to understand is current zone valid or not. Let it be zone #0. OK, we are looking if this zone#0 has removed any zone. OK, we see that zone#0 has removed zone #1. Then we must see if that zone #1 was valid? And we start looking again if zone #1 had removed any zone or not. So how many zone do we have to analyse? Until we find the very first zone that was 100% valid due to trendline removal?
  • #5,311
  • Feb 9, 2015 5:31am Feb 9, 2015 5:31am
Quoting Ivan-M
{quote} It was just an example I'm talking about this rule: When is a supply or demand imbalance confirmed as a level? A zone or imbalance is validated under these 2 specific circumstances: A Trendline has been broken at a bigger timeframe or a flip zone (WoW trade) {image}
That demand area is not valid because it removed a flip zone, it's valid because it removed a supply zone, very wide and badly form Daily supply but supply. A flip can't be used to validate a zone, there is no rule for that.

What you are referring to in your comment is not saying that it removes a flip zone, but that a TL broken at a bigger timeframe or a flip zone. Normally the TL breaks will happen at bigger TF zones. The reasons why a zone becomes a zone are 2, and then a clarification where there is nothing to be taken out. I've removed that sentence from post #1 just in case it causes confusion

Cheers,
Alfonso

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,312
  • Feb 9, 2015 5:34am Feb 9, 2015 5:34am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} That demand area is not valid because it removed a flip zone, it's valid because it removed a supply zone, very wide and badly form Daily supply but supply. A flip can't be used to validate a zone, there is no rule for that. What you are referring to in your comment is not saying that it removes a flip zone, but that a TL broken at a bigger timeframe or a flip zone. Normally the TL breaks will happen at bigger TF zones. The reasons why a zone becomes a zone are 2, and then a clarification where there is nothing to be taken out. I've removed...
Thank you very much!
  • #5,313
  • Feb 9, 2015 6:26am Feb 9, 2015 6:26am
Quoting panoramia
Hello fellow traders, I am looking for an indicator to display 3, 6 and 12 months charts on Metatrader 4 or 5. Those big picture timeframes are so important, but I can't find one indicator that will do that. I was told it's just impossible to generate timeframes higher than the Monthly chart on Metatrader, any lower timeframes combination is possible, I saw one indicator doing it but I want 3, 6 and 12 months charts. I was also looking for a trading software that allows me to do just that, one that has demo, stocks, equities, forex and indexes....
Hi Alfonso,

I don't know about Metatrader as I never use it but there do seem to be solutions for Tradestation, a couple I found as follows:-

https://community.tradestation.com/D...Topic_ID=96768

http://www.jamstrategytrading.com/HTPack.htm

ttfn
  • #5,314
  • Feb 9, 2015 7:53am Feb 9, 2015 7:53am
EURUSD

Monthly Down
Price at fresh area of monthly demand
http://s24.postimg.org/d098lyyg5/screenshot_483.png

Weekly Down
There is a fresh level of demand nested within the monthly demand below proximal line align with the distal line.
http://s24.postimg.org/8fn271eqt/screenshot_484.png

Daily Consolidation
price reacted from a old fresh CP level and broke the trendline and we have marginal 2:1 imbalance from the proximal line of the demand level.
http://s24.postimg.org/ncvj81rz9/screenshot_485.png


As we are too low in the curve we should look for Longs from here.
We got a daily fresh demand level which broke the trendline within the monthly fresh demand level. Does that daily demand level qualify as confirmation trade ? is this trade valid ?
  • #5,315
  • Feb 9, 2015 9:10am Feb 9, 2015 9:10am
GBPUSD

Monthly Down

http://s24.postimg.org/a9zwos1r9/screenshot_486.png

WEEKLY down
http://s24.postimg.org/lz8y9uz1h/screenshot_487.png

DAILY up.
- Trendline broken
- Supply removed
- 2 Valley to connect ascending trendline

there is a CP demand level which actually removed the supply. The shape of the CP is not good but i wanted to know as per rules is this trade valid. Is it a confirmation trade ?

http://s24.postimg.org/exb0nnvfp/screenshot_488.png
  • #5,316
  • Feb 10, 2015 5:49am Feb 10, 2015 5:49am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hey Cardenas, I wish I could hold webinars in Spanish, but I don't have such a public, there are a few traders that can speak spanish but not enough to spend time on that. Besides it would be doing the job twice. Since English is the language that most of us speak, the "official language of the world", the webinars have to be in English even if a lot of non-english speakers are left out, sorry Cheers, Alfonso

Ok Alfonso. Thanks for your answer, it sound logic. Well I īl make my best effort to improve my listening skills in your videos..he..he..Thanks again.
  • #5,317
  • Feb 10, 2015 3:10pm Feb 10, 2015 3:10pm
Quoting rickyfx
GBPUSD Monthly Down {image} WEEKLY down {image} DAILY up. - Trendline broken - Supply removed - 2 Valley to connect ascending trendline there is a CP demand level which actually removed the supply. The shape of the CP is not good but i wanted to know as per rules is this trade valid. Is it a confirmation trade ? {image}
Hey Ricky, thanks for sharing your analysis on GBP/USD.

Take a look where price is now on the 3 months chart on GBP/USD, bouncing off a 3 months demand zone with a clear 3 months uptrend.

Cheers,
Alfonso

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,318
  • Feb 11, 2015 7:26am Feb 11, 2015 7:26am
Dear Alfonso
continuing the GBPUSD analysis that started by rickyfx and completed by you

3M is UP
M is DN
W is DN
D is UP .................... So where the direction of trades in Daily time frame !!!!!!
  • #5,319
  • Feb 11, 2015 4:16pm Feb 11, 2015 4:16pm
Hello,

I am interested in this strategy. I would like to play on the small tf. Day trading or scalping.

Is anyone here playing TF m1 and m5? Is this strategy is suitable for day trading / scalping?
If you interested my strategy, send to me private message.
  • #5,320
  • Feb 11, 2015 4:46pm Feb 11, 2015 4:46pm
Quoting ahmedalhosenyy
Dear Alfonso continuing the GBPUSD analysis that started by rickyfx and completed by you 3M is UP M is DN W is DN D is UP .................... So where the direction of trades in Daily time frame !!!!!!
I didn't understand your question on GBP/USD D1 timeframe, sorry. Can you please explain it a bit clearer? D1 is trying to realign with 3 months uptrend
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
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