Oil and Natural Gas

again it all depends on two things.....opec and supply

here's my pc chart version....whatever I do I see minimum $125 target now....
-bottomed out lets hope so for now

Im sure you guys all read this already, but here it is anyways. A word of caution to all bulls, keep that SL tight!

Morgan StanleyCrude Oil
Four reasons why any oil rallies won't last

Oil prices continued their rally on Monday, after an 8% surge on Friday.
As some traders try to identify the bottom in oil prices, Morgan Stanley warns that "small crude oil rallies can occur, but are likely limited and unsustainable."
Data from Baker Hughes last week showed that US oil rigs posted a weekly decline that was the most since the drilling company started collecting the data.
In a note to clients, Adam Longson wrote that even though the headline count was an impressive decline, less rigs does not mean less production. And steady production will likely keep prices under pressure.
Overall, Longson outlined four reasons why the rally will be short-lived, and why oil prices are still going lower:

1. Investors are too excited about the rig count decline and are misinterpreting what it actually means. Producers are getting rid of the least-productive rigs, and the best performing ones will probably keep working for a while.
2. March will be a turning point for oil fundamentals. Morgan Stanley notes that there's already bearish data for oil. While the market largely focused on and reacted to the rig counts on Friday, a Reuters survey showed that OPEC increased production in January. OPEC's refusal to cut production amid booming US shale oil has been a major contributor to the slump in oil prices. On Friday, we also got worse-than-expected GDP data for Q4 out of the US.
3. Any rally now is a bearish signal for the second half of the year and the medium term. Energy companies have been reducing their capex as oil prices fell, and this has balanced the market. An increase in oil prices will cause more imbalance. A former BP CEO had highlighted that low oil prices force oil producers to use their resources more efficiently.
4. Because spot prices are currently higher than futures prices, any oil price rally will prompt producers to hedge (i.e., sell). This will delay any potential cuts to US production.

Morgan Stanley forecasts that the price of Brent crude will fall to as low as $57 per barrel in Q1 and $43 in Q2 this year.
Brent traded as high as $55.26 on Monday.

Im still expecting this beast to cross the $40 line before any substantial long term bull... Time will tell...

Hi everyone.....I'm playing the daily candle " a hammer" and will see if the price move up with strenght

The first target is near 2900, and after, maybe a second shoulder of a big figure is possible.....the target is so high...

anyone expecting rally on brent with US open ? as candles seem to wanna go down but rsi shows it wanna test the wall :?

There we go baby... Cash in 1/2 of the position, move stop to $1.00 above entry point for balance.

Hummmm interesting comment and view.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/...rrel/22800331/

OPEC sees oil prices exploding to $200 a barrel
Matt DiLallo
13 hours ago
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Charlie Riedel, AP
A pumping unit sucks oil from the ground near Greensburg, Kan.
Right now the oil market is totally focused on finding a bottom for oil prices. However, according to OPEC's Secretary-General Abdulla al-Badri we've already hit bottom. Not only that, but he sees a real possibility that oil prices could explode higher to upwards of $200 per barrel in the future. He's far from the only one that sees a return of triple-digit oil prices.
Finding a bottom
According to the Secretary-General, speaking in London on Jan. 26, the oil market doesn't need to look for oil prices to bottom as the market has already bottomed. Instead, he offered quite bullish comments by saying, "Now the prices are around $45-$55, and I think maybe they [have] reached the bottom and we [will] see some rebound very soon." Now, normally that type of remark would be just another layer of noise, but this is coming from OPEC's Secretary-General so it comes with a lot of weight behind it.
That said, he's not saying that OPEC will come in and rescue the oil market by reversing its previous decision to hold steady on production. Instead, he sees the signs that the oil market is self-correcting as oil companies have made deep cuts to spending, which will eventually lead to lower production growth. Further, the rig count in the U.S. is plunging, which is usually a key to a bottom in oil prices. However, in the midst of cutting back as the industry works through the current oversupply the Secretary-General is now warning that the industry is putting future oil supplies at risk by under investing today.
Underinvestment leads to a shortage
The Secretary-General said that, "if you don't invest in oil and gas, you will see more than $200" when it comes to future oil prices. While he didn't give a timeframe, he did note the correlation between investment and future production. This is because oil production naturally declines and oil companies need to invest in new production to not only replace this decline in production from legacy oil fields but to add new production to meet growing demand. However, oil companies are reluctant to invest in new production as their cash flows decline.
Over time this could become a problem as oil fields around the world naturally decline by an average of about 5% per year. In order to overcome this decline oil companies need to develop about 200 billion barrels of oil supplies over the next decade and a half just to meet demand.
These supplies will require the industry to invest $7-$10 trillion. However, with the big capital budget reductions oil companies have announced this year it could make it harder for the industry to meet future supply needs. In fact, the industry might defer up to $150 billion oil projects this year due to the collapse in crude prices. Many of these investments, however, wouldn't have yielded actual production for a couple of years due to the long lead time of major projects.
As an example, Chevron delivered first oil on two of its Gulf of Mexico projects late last year after beginning construction on the fields in 2011. Meanwhile, another $6 billion project it just sanctioned at the end of last year won't produce any oil until 2018. It's these long lead time projects that are being delayed, which is setting the world up for higher oil prices in the future as an under investment today has the potential to lead to a constriction in future supplies.
Investor takeaway
OPEC's Secretary-General is calling the bottom in oil prices. While he's not the first to call a bottom, he does lead the organization that currently controls the oil market so his comments do have a lot of weight. Further, he's also suggesting that the cuts that oil companies are making could have a dramatic impact on future oil prices as the under investment has the potential to cause oil prices to rocket higher if demand grows faster than future supplies. That, however, would all be part of OPEC's plan as it purposely pushed for lower oil prices now so it could control market share once oil prices surged in the future. It's willing to endure short-term pain for the potential of a big long-term gain.

Global oil prices reversed course and took a hard fall in late trading on Wednesday after the release of the US EIA inventor report. World oil prices fell on Wednesday after the four prior sessions of gains. Traders focused on the ongoing climb in oil supply after the release of weekly inventory data. US crude stockpiles rose by 6.3 million barrels last week to a record 413 million barrels. Brent crude fell by $2.99 or 5.2 per cent to $54.17 a barrel while US Nymex crude fell by $4.60 or 8.7 per cent to $48.45 a barrel.

A rebound in oil prices fizzled out as the contract for U.S. crude dropped 8 percent to $48.88 a barrel. The government reported that crude inventories jumped last week. Oil prices rebounded in Asia on Thursday but gains were capped as the euro was hit by fresh concerns over Greece, further hurting demand in the face of an oversupply, analysts said. Crude oil is trading at $48.73 and Brent oil is at $54.69 in the morning session.
Oil prices tumbled 8.7% on Wednesday, halting a robust four-day rally, after data showed that U.S. crude supplies had climbed to their highest level in about 80 years. U.S. crude-oil supplies rose by 6.3 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 30 to 413.1 million barrels, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Wednesday. Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected a gain of 3.7 million barrels. Stockpiles are at the highest level ever in EIA weekly data going back to August 1982. In monthly data, which don’t line up exactly with the weekly data, inventories haven’t been this high since 1930. Gasoline and distillate inventories increased as refiners’ boosted throughput, data from the Energy Information Administration showed on Wednesday. Gasoline stocks rose by 2.3 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuter’s poll for a 67,000-barrel gain.

Im fairly sure this isn`t over yet. This last bull rally may be exactly what was needed to crack through the $40 barrier...
80 year all time high supply!!!!
I think more people are going to need to go out of business before we see the bottom of this... I still remain bear..
...sorry to be a nay sayer, I really appreciate everyones input, thank you.
..
who knows, perhaps it is the bottom and now is a great bounce to go bull again....

A huge oil bull trap - technically it's just a (c) wave up of the month-long correction iv that's gonna terminate near 55.50-58.00 area before resuming down trend with a sharp drop.

Price, price, price... Nice bullish move with by touching & closing above the 61.8 of the recent move up (H4). Move my stop win to 49.50, if we want to go higher, now would be a good time. Below 47 would be bearish.

My proposition

Out....trade loose, but the level is here imho....

I'm with u on your wave count.
What type of correction would you see the wave 4 might turn out, after such a prolonged decline?
Best to your trades!

Yup I have a feeling your right on this one seemed like an akward bottoming process thinking another drop to 38ish, I am long uwti @2.85 nice little profit so far but ready to cash in very soon. Whats your target for (v)???

technically

i change my mind

Honestly, at first I'll wait until oil drops, then I think as drawn about. I look forward to some irregular wave.

Best Regards

Yetika