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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #17,541
  • Feb 8, 2015 10:39am Feb 8, 2015 10:39am
https://www.quandl.com/PSYCH/EURUSD_...entiment-Index

https://www.quandl.com/PSYCH/EURUSD_...-Volume-Ratios


EURUSD sentiment data
  • #17,542
  • Feb 8, 2015 10:40am Feb 8, 2015 10:40am
https://www.quandl.com/

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  • #17,543
  • Feb 8, 2015 10:41am Feb 8, 2015 10:41am
Mate am using quandle for about a year, that site is just awesome.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #17,544
  • Feb 8, 2015 10:56am Feb 8, 2015 10:56am
Mate, I know you beeing fan of Tyler as myself. What you think of that discrediting of China trade surplus? Is everywhere aroung Western media. I mean, Chinamen made 60Bn to spend, because their costs are declining. Is this really what is supposed to be interpreted as bad news? Seems to me like noone actually knows what Balance of Payments means.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #17,545
  • Feb 8, 2015 10:56am Feb 8, 2015 10:56am
[IMG]http://api.ning.com:80/files/1Q*fTOyGxIC44DXjo7*IuSCC6V6ixprvm5iJblOWkmVCySn4yyiOevruBKHjd8QeuIBy7MgnZP*1BWqYWqKPQIiOKvDYYLKL/dsc_logo.png[/IMG]



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  • #17,546
  • Feb 8, 2015 10:58am Feb 8, 2015 10:58am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Mate am using quandle for about a year, that site is just awesome.

what are you using it for, may I ask?
  • #17,547
  • Feb 8, 2015 11:00am Feb 8, 2015 11:00am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} what are you using it for, may I ask?
Like this:
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
But see the idea behind: You get timeseries of various macro numbers. Say for start my first goal is to include these, since I focus on three major liquid markets beeing US, EU and Japan. US,EU,Japan macro - GDP, unemployment, inflation, BP Indexes - Nikkei, Dax, Dow, FTSE, SaP500 Commodities - Oil, Gold FX - EU, UJ, EJ So, my goal is to chop all these timeseries into wave fractions and measure lagging (moved in time) correlations of these. And I plan to mine all these data once I learn to use that Reuters in our school. I believe we can explore...
For Tom waves, what have you expected?
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #17,548
  • Feb 8, 2015 11:06am Feb 8, 2015 11:06am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Mate, I know you beeing fan of Tyler as myself. What you think of that discrediting of China trade surplus? Is everywhere aroung Western media. I mean, Chinamen made 60Bn to spend, because their costs are declining. Is this really what is supposed to be interpreted as bad news? Seems to me like noone actually knows what Balance of Payments means.

let me try:

when import declines sharply (-19.9%), it is a sign of weak economy in China. And China on a way to recession spells trouble for world economy.

when exports go up, it is a sign of good economy elsewhere. But note: also exports dropped by 3.3%

To gain 60 Billion is not a bad thing, but how much would they have gained more, if exports would not have dropped by 3.3%?
  • #17,549
  • Feb 8, 2015 11:09am Feb 8, 2015 11:09am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Like this: {quote} For Tom waves, what have you expected?
:nerd:


interesting


so you do not get Elliott waves, because they are reflection of social mood, but economic data waves.........
  • #17,550
  • Feb 8, 2015 11:13am Feb 8, 2015 11:13am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} let me try: when import declines sharply (-19.9%), it is a sign of weak economy in China. And China on a way to recession spells trouble for world economy. when exports go up, it is a sign of good economy elsewhere. But note: also exports dropped by 3.3% To gain 60 Billion is not a bad thing, but how much would they have gained more, if exports would not have dropped by 3.3%?
Yes, all media yelling bout imports slump. But I insist: Total costs of imports in Balance of Payments = quantity * price. Now take a look at Oil. Or dont take a look, you know how the chart looks like. Is supereasy in my books. Oil price down, costs down, Trade balance up. Simple. Whole world is slowing down and isolating, so ofc exports decline a bit. Nothing extraordinary about it. But the fact is their costs declined so sharply even when taking into account little export loss, they are still in heavy plus in world trade. Am really unable to see this as bad news.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #17,551
  • Feb 8, 2015 11:16am Feb 8, 2015 11:16am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} :nerd: interesting so you do not get Elliott waves, because they are reflection of social mood, but economic data waves.........
Nono mate, I never said I dont get EW. I like the principle and am using it to trade. And to live in fact, I see waves everywhere. But as we spoke many times, I consider EW great, but old. Elliot made it for stocks in 30s and market evolves, as well as analysis. All I am doing is taking EW principle and applying it to my understanding of cash flow = is all correlated, you can watch waves within waves within cycles.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #17,552
  • Feb 8, 2015 11:41am Feb 8, 2015 11:41am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Yes, all media yelling bout imports slump. But I insist: Total costs of imports in Balance of Payments = quantity * price. Now take a look at Oil. Or dont take a look, you know how the chart looks like. Is supereasy in my books. Oil price down, costs down, Trade balance up. Simple. Whole world is slowing down and isolating, so ofc exports decline a bit. Nothing extraordinary about it. But the fact is their costs declined so sharply even when taking into account little export loss, they are still in heavy plus in world trade. Am really unable...
Exactly. Always doubt whatever comes from Bloomberg, it usually makes holes in logical sense. Now lets take another view, Chinese import droping, why do Bloomberg cares so much? Becouse its not problem of China, its problem of west. On other hand Chinese domestic market is growing at super fast peace along with middle class. This means they are starting to consume more of their domestic products, and as their products slowly increase in quallity of productions imports will slow down. Just look what they are able to do, they are copying all over the board western production assets and making them very close in general terms to their value of use, but for much lower costs, which in fact is much more interesting for their domnestic market than expensive western products. As you noticed exports droped a little while imports droped big, this isnt bad sign, this is just expansion of their domestic buying power. Just look numbers, their domestic buying power just passed USA at 17 trillion. Put two and two together, fast peace of their own buying power, exports still holding in overall numbers, while imports droping, its more close to their own market expansion than it has to do with big economic slowdown.
The biggest worry of globalists overall is internal expansion of China as their own market, not as much imperial China securing oil sources and resources across globe, but internal stable system that cares not about western holes in system. Probably thats why such rush of "privatization" into China to basically infiltrate it within and subdue its system, just as it was done many times before in other countries.We were same threat here in Yugoslavia, and globalists used same plan as they are pulling atm on China and succeed with help of insiders. Well but thats offtopic a bit already from imports exports thingy.
  • #17,553
  • Feb 8, 2015 11:45am Feb 8, 2015 11:45am
Exactly same page Jan. Thanks a lot for your thoughts.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #17,554
  • Feb 8, 2015 11:51am Feb 8, 2015 11:51am
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...ainly-possible

Translation of this article: Swiss will go capital controls. You can go back just 2 months when they mentioned as negative rates as "extreme action" but certainly possible, just month after that they came. Same should happen here. Really they only have 2 options only: Further rate cuts, severe cuts or second option is capital controls. It just depends can they go heavy negative rates without damaging banking deposits from outer capital flows much. Question is how can we trade it hm. Look like shorting CHF will be trade to go but when is more of a question.
  • #17,555
  • Feb 8, 2015 12:51pm Feb 8, 2015 12:51pm
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2015/0...february-2015/

Helping ally by further escalating civil war. Brilliant. Thumbs up for Merkel though. Its not enough, but thats as far as she can go without being placed on list i guess.

http://marketshadows.com/2015/01/27/...nian-neonazis/

Nothing surprising though, arm mercenaries with AKs and paint them as "civil war participants".
  • #17,556
  • Feb 8, 2015 2:18pm Feb 8, 2015 2:18pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Yes, all media yelling bout imports slump. But I insist: Total costs of imports in Balance of Payments = quantity * price. Now take a look at Oil. Or dont take a look, you know how the chart looks like. Is supereasy in my books. Oil price down, costs down, Trade balance up. Simple. Whole world is slowing down and isolating, so ofc exports decline a bit. Nothing extraordinary about it. But the fact is their costs declined so sharply even when taking into account little export loss, they are still in heavy plus in world trade. Am really unable...

I think, ZH intent was not to show primarily weak China, but more to make a point on weak world economy.

JMHO
  • #17,557
  • Feb 8, 2015 2:23pm Feb 8, 2015 2:23pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Exactly. Always doubt whatever comes from Bloomberg, it usually makes holes in logical sense. Now lets take another view, Chinese import droping, why do Bloomberg cares so much? Becouse its not problem of China, its problem of west. On other hand Chinese domestic market is growing at super fast peace along with middle class. This means they are starting to consume more of their domestic products, and as their products slowly increase in quallity of productions imports will slow down. Just look what they are able to do, they are copying all...

  • #17,558
  • Feb 8, 2015 2:44pm Feb 8, 2015 2:44pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
Europe Fractures: France Pivots To Putin, Cyprus Offers Moscow Military Base, Germany-US Splinter On Ukraine
  • #17,559
  • Feb 8, 2015 2:46pm Feb 8, 2015 2:46pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} .We were same threat here in Yugoslavia, and globalists used same plan as they are pulling atm on China and succeed with help of insiders. Well but thats offtopic a bit already from imports exports thingy.
the only one to blame for the tragic end of YU are the politicians who didn't know how to cope with the fall of communism so overnight they became notorious nationalists and successfully convinced frustrated people that solution for all the problems were killing their neighbors who wasn't of their nationality or religion. and after all the bloodbath some people still think that YU and socialism were the best systems in the world but big bad Zionists or USA or CIA or Vatican or aliens..were responsible for all that mess. everyone but the people and politicians of YU. but no problem, sve ce to narod pozlatiti
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #17,560
  • Feb 8, 2015 4:12pm Feb 8, 2015 4:12pm
Quoting infinitus
{image} Europe Fractures: France Pivots To Putin, Cyprus Offers Moscow Military Base, Germany-US Splinter On Ukraine
Its getting interesting. If you look from guy on comments aparently Merkel Hollande and Putin have thrown out all secondary officials that should have been present at talks. They are starting to take it seriously. Now what will happen is globalists need to start taking shortcuts, time is not on their side. As it was said from start, time is on side of Moscow. USA weapons will come to Ukraine at fast speed, then invasion onto Dombas will be launched, i think in next 3 months for sure. What has been said between Putin Merkel and Hollande, was said, so in order to turn things around globalists have to push Russia into agression to escalate diplomatic relation into worsen thus giving Hollande and Merkel no option from their inside political/media system to push Russia out again. The only question here remains what will Putin do. Will they go full in helping Dombas or will they just prop up proxy war. The thing is it would be rather hard to send tons of arms without obvious pointing to where it came from if west didnt send it. So in any case they will corner Putin looks like.There is still hope if diplomatic switch from EU and USA would be going at fast speed like its going for past 2 months especially on French side, then it still has chance, but clock is ticking as weapons will be in Ukraine soon.
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