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Are there any successful technical traders? 19 replies

Are there actually any profitable traders on Forex Factory? 6 replies

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Are there any successful Traders in Forex Factory?

Quoting EarnPipsNow
{quote} Trading is not about winning or losing (a trade), but about making money in the long run, regardless of the endless sequence of winning/losing trades. In fact, successful traders are totally detached from the outcome of any particular trading day, week or even month.


I know. This is the dogma that is indoctrinated in all wannabe forex millionaires.
I especially like the doctrine to "follow your plan (edge, management, discipline)" to make money in the long run, regardless of the endless sequence of winning/losing trades.

That is a sure account killer. I guess that is why it's so popular.
truly the definition of edge is where the weak point is.

if you dont have an edge that is sufficiently important. you will not be able to distinguish it from just a random correlation.

if your strategy is weak and takes 2 months to get and break your previous equity top like a lot of EA I saw then
discipline will just make you go down because you cant know when the strategy stop working before your account go bust
Quoting EarnPipsNow
{quote} They say trading is like a 3-legged stool, if one of the legs is missing you will fall 100% of the time. Without a statistical edge the trader is doomed to fail, no matter how disciplined he/she is. Without the proper money management the trader will ALWAYS blow up his account no matter how profitable his system is. And finally even the best trading system and the best money management are totally worthless without discipline.
There is a myth in retail forexland that money management is the key to success. Some don't know or don't understand what the concept of edge/expected value/profit factor is from a mathematical point of view but they still think money management and discipline will bring them success in the long run.

In order to apply discipline and mm you first need an approach with a matheatical edge, otherwise "the odds are against you and the house will win in the long run".

The big question is "do I have an edge?". Algo traders can easily tackle that question with backtesting but it's a tough debate for a discretionary approach.
It is dificult to win in forex market. Because spread, broker, big boy and then trader ...
To answer your original question, yes. There are several winning traders in FF.
You cannot be extraordinary by being normal
Hi Dave
Hopefully you will be fine..
Trailing Stop on Sell order working perfect Now...
Now i hv noticed two issues...
(1) if Pair is "JPY" trailing stop modified the trade after increasing each point....
Example if USDJPY move 10 pips then trailing stop modified the trade 100 times... its mean 10 time in a pip
(2) Sir if i used candle stick filter trade close in profit or loss in same candle,,,then a new order executed in same candle because the parameters for trade execution are the same ...
I think if we use a 'time parameter' like if a trade is exist in history and its open time is
2014-11-17 09:00 then no more trade execute in 2014-11-17 09:00 to 09:59
Quoting redgreen
{quote} There is a myth in retail forexland that money management is the key to success. Some don't know or don't understand what the concept of edge/expected value/profit factor is from a mathematical point of view but they still think money management and discipline will bring them success in the long run. In order to apply discipline and mm you first need an approach with a matheatical edge, otherwise "the odds are against you and the house will win in the long run". The big question is "do I have an edge?". Algo traders can easily tackle that...
You are quite right Mr Green, Ive been hearing that money management song being sang by clueless traders for a long time and its just pure stupidity. Its like going to Vegas with $10000 and then betting $100 on the roulette table randomly on each draw (At least thats great money management ) Lets see how long you'll last. Money management without a defined edge is bloody useless! all you do with MM is elongate the wipe out!!!
Quoting Mingary
{quote} I know. This is the dogma that is indoctrinated in all wannabe forex millionaires. I especially like the doctrine to "follow your plan (edge, management, discipline)" to make money in the long run, regardless of the endless sequence of winning/losing trades. That is a sure account killer. I guess that is why it's so popular.
Not sure I understand your comments, Mingary.

If your system has been thoroughly back-tested under all kind of market conditions (bull, bear, neutral) and is profitable, why should you be overly concerned about the outcome of each trade?

Have you ever seen a casino owner say something like: "Hey, this player won 9 times in a row at this roulette table, let's close the table or change the betting rules immediately before we go bankrupt!"? No, of course not, because he knows the casino has a mathematical edge.

Well that's exactly the same thing with a winning trading system.
Each losing trade is an opportunity to learn
Quoting EarnPipsNow
{quote} Not sure I understand your comments, Mingary. If your system has been thoroughly back-tested under all kind of market conditions (bull, bear, neutral) and is profitable, why should you be overly concerned about the outcome of each trade? Have you ever seen a casino owner say something like: "Hey, this player won 9 times in a row at this roulette table, let's close the table or change the betting rules immediately before we go bankrupt!"? No, of course not, because he knows the casino has a mathematical edge. Well that's exactly the same...
i think you'll find they are banned from Vegas, labelled a card counter and run out of town,
as they cant have anyone beating the house,
much like the markets and brokerage houses

your right though, the Casino always has the edge, it does nt even have to be that large, and sometimes is n't
but overall makes tons of money, along with selling lots of expensive crap food,
the house always wins, and if not just ban the very few that can beat the system.
Quoting Carlsberg
{quote} i think you'll find they are banned from Vegas, labelled a card counter and run out of town
True, but the game of BlackJack is different from the other games in a casino because it's the only game you can mathematically beat in the long run (just like the financial markets).

To answer the original poster/question ("Are there any successful traders in Forex Factory?") the answer is yes, assuming your trading system has a solid mathematical edge with a built-in money management and you follow each signal/rule in a highly disciplined manner.

(I will personally open a Forex trading Journal in this forum and make live daily calls with specific stop and target next week, just to show that it is possible to extract money consistently from any freely traded market, the Forex market being just one of them).
Each losing trade is an opportunity to learn
There are definitely a lot of successful traders in Forex Factory

They just don't want to show it to the world because they don't want to attract any attention from other traders.
Quoting Mingary
{quote} I know. This is the dogma that is indoctrinated in all wannabe forex millionaires. I especially like the doctrine to "follow your plan (edge, management, discipline)" to make money in the long run, regardless of the endless sequence of winning/losing trades. That is a sure account killer. I guess that is why it's so popular.
Mingary, you are an interesting individual, and I am happy to know you. Can you tell me about any traders who followed a well thought out plan for a year, and did not end up in the black?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
Quoting Keyser_Soze
{quote} Forget about searching FF. Doubt there's any good info here on it, and if there was, it's not worth the time it would take to shovel through all the shit. If you insist on reading something... Google "Paul Rotter". He's done a couple of interviews that are gold. Read through them slowly and carefully. Don't expect to understand everything at first. But if you want to learn, there's really only one way man. Get a TT Xtrader or Ninjatrader account (both offer sims I believe), pull up the "DOM" of a thick contract like the emini or 10yr treasury...
Keyser, talking about S/D a little more in relation to this thread and consistency. Seems like there are many folks who start trading S/D, and have success for a while, but ultimately they discard the methodology. I've heard that some people will have a good run and then its like it stops working for them. This does not make sense to me, as the market moves and retraces in relation to order flow and structure. In other words, although every zone does not get hit and behave with complete reliability, these zones do work consistently, and with discipline and some basic filters, I would expect that people such as yourself would be doing really well and be consistent. I know you do really well with these, but is there anything beneath the surface you have seen, now that this has been your method for a while that makes this method more difficult than one might expect. The best part is that by their nature, these results offer great R:R, so they do allow one the luxury of not being right all the time as well. I look forward to your observations about this.
Success and failure depends upon your expectations. Everyone knows Forex is as large as Pacific. If you take out 10 buckets of water everyday it doesn't matter to Pacific on the other side if you go and pour 10 buckets everyday to Pacific it hardly matter to it. So decide with how many PIPS you will be happy for the day and simply stick to it. Then you don't have to go after success, it will follow you.
Quoting EarnPipsNow
(I will personally open a Forex trading Journal in this forum and make live daily calls with specific stop and target next week, just to show that it is possible to extract money consistently from any freely traded market, the Forex market being just one of them).
Please do, that will be very interesting.
Quoting redgreen
There is a myth in retail forexland that money management is the key to success. Some don't know or don't understand what the concept of edge/expected value/profit factor is from a mathematical point of view but they still think money management and discipline will bring them success in the long run. In order to apply discipline and mm you first need an approach with a matheatical edge, otherwise "the odds are against you and the house will win in the long run". The big question is "do I have an edge?"
How true my friend !

Just a quick example : most traders naively believe that if their risk/reward is 2 to 1, for instance, (meaning they risk 1 dollar to make 2 dollars) they will make money in the long run.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

It's like saying "If I risk only $1 to make millions at the Lottery, in the long run I will make tons of money!"

Anyway.
Each losing trade is an opportunity to learn
Call me a hazardous trader.

Call me a spontaneous trader.

Call me a high-risk scalper.

Call me an insane unreasonable expectations trader.

Call me a wanna-be expert trader.

Regardless of the warning negative implication names be aware of this:

I say the following information with truthful expectations, knowing the implied risks behind every trade I make and consider.

If you ask me how does someone learn to make a successful trade and continue to do so?

Use real money. Lose real money. Make real money. That's the easy part.

This is the hard part... Or so people think.

Watch for what people call supply and demand situations that afford you the ability to make 1:1, 2:1, 3:1, and higher risk to reward ratios.

Look for online trading academy free-seminar training. If you were to pay for their classes you would pay out of pocket around currently 55k where you can get alot of the same information for free.

Many trading techniques are essentially the same type when looking at the harmonics, supply and demand, support and resistance lines.

But there is always more than one interpretation that begins to confuse people when something goes awry and differs from the initial movements outlined.

No one can directly tell you how everything will work out properly every-time. If they could then it is due to knowing the most consistent variable to make something move into a certain direction for a certain time-frame. But even then that tends to change and have the chance to ruin someone's understanding.

If someone tries to say once the pair hits abc range xyz may be the following situation taking place this indicates that they aren't certain the actual out-come of a pair's movement due to being so far out from predictability movement.

It is possible to make 5-10% or much more each day depending on the pair decided to trade, even with the 50:1 margin ratio. (believe me, I have done it for almost a week or two at times.) Granted with this type of potential profit you can also take major losses quickly too. I have experienced this all too often as well due to improper variable considerations.

I personally am looking to understand the requirements and possibilities of finding a trading partner where the profits are split 50/50 consistent that is in making a certain quota of profit per day while the other person refreshens and sharpens their trading knowledge abilities and potential of future trade out-looks.

in 4-6 months $1 million dollars are potentially able to made making 10% per day. What are the probabilities of this? Well, look at the ability starting at 5k at 40 business days you are looking at $anywhere between 200-400k or more if you make more than 10% per day.

Granted the other question is when or how can people trade at the same size levels increasing in volume each day, and not be hunted by bigger institutions and banks making the secondary question once of adequate size to be recognized by bigger institutions and banks and need to limit the market size exposure for safety purposes while not minimizing the profits expected per day?

These are things large account size traders have to consider and think about as certain trade sizes can actually affect the market itself and not be little fish movements anymore.

Do a google search of George Soros and breaking england's bank, it is even possible to make so much money and trade against another country's bank and essentially win... granted there may be stipulations upon doing this but you get the point I hope. (technically he wasn't the only one who was in on the trade, but you get what I'm saying..)
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Mingary, you are an interesting individual, and I am happy to know you. Can you tell me about any traders who followed a well thought out plan for a year, and did not end up in the black?
Yes, pretty much any one with a win / lose type of system (: they are all so "gung-ho", "yes I can do this" in the beginning, then they fail and they are never heard of any more... FF is full of them. Just follow any new "trading system" thread.. The author is always so positive in the beginning and then disappears or if they are still around it's because they are on demo or trading for pennies.
There is a huge fallacy at work here.
One can research and back test for a million years and even test real time some system and find that the result should be positive (the series of wins are larger than the series of loses) when in fact there can never be proof that the wins will always be larger than the losses.
That SNB event is a good example.
What is certain is that something will break the winning streak... it's just a question of when.
There is only one solution for the long term: any trade must be a winner (account goes up) or at least break even (capital is safe).
Quoting fxloser
in my opinion best way to make profit is wok with Team ... Suppose one technical analyst 2nd fundemental analyst 3rd economist 4th expert in chart patterns 5th expert in indicators 6th expert in harmonic pattens 7th expert in Elliot wave 8th expert in trendline and fibo levels 9th piovt point expert 10th an language expert which can watch listen and understand English news channels like Bloom berg , and some more to keep in mind what t big analyst o makert maker viewd 11th a person tu read website articles and economy calendar to tell u which news...
Well, you forgot to add a trader to your team. You know, the one who does not blindly follow the experts advise, takes trades, applies money management and such stuff.
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Quoting Spili
and sometimes the guys who are successful are telling you exactly how it is done but you are so busy arguing amongst yourselves that it goes totally unheeded. I've witnessed this a lot on this forum, so unless you know what you are looking for when you come here, or have an idea of what works or what doesn't, I suggest you look elsewhere for education.
Exactly, this happens all the time.
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