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vsa with Malcolm

  • #26,341
  • Feb 6, 2015 7:33pm Feb 6, 2015 7:33pm
NGas is in a world of hurt
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  • #26,342
  • Feb 6, 2015 7:46pm Feb 6, 2015 7:46pm
then there is the week -- weakness !!
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  • #26,343
  • Feb 7, 2015 8:07am Feb 7, 2015 8:07am
Quoting ZeeDeveel
Any idea where I went wrong here? Buying at the high and not waiting for a pullback was presumably a mistake but why was my read so bad? Did I miss the clues of this massive supply? I saw higher lows, no supply candles, strength in the background, break through a previous level of supply and then kaboom. Comments very much appreciated. Thanks. {image}
Zee, Tom Williams keeps on banging the drum of look to the background. In the past I would also have taken that trade, but we have to have a full narrative. What happens is that the market has not trapped all the bulls & is also testing for supply.
Look at your near side zone, seems like they have marked the market up.
Now, look to the far left of your chart. I see a massive UHV SO bar, then a very strong "effort to fall". There must have been too much supply in that SO bar, so it was a preliminary stopping volume, the market saw supply was still present, so with a very wide bar down they took out that cluster.
This is exactly where the market, in your current area ran into old supply & got knocked back.
A lot of people tend to fail to look one level up to the current area of resistance thinking it is the real resistance.
That is how the smart money catches you out for not paying attention.
  • #26,344
  • Feb 7, 2015 8:26am Feb 7, 2015 8:26am
Quoting pete148
Jeese, If FF had a like button I would like most posts over the last 3 pages. Alot more wyckoff coming out now. For myself wyckoff has opened the path alot more for me after studying vsa for a long time. Alot of people does make VSA work for them, though
Pete, VSA lights went on for me after I looked at Wyckoff.
Looking at your following chart, nice analysis.
If you define the UT bar, (C on your chart) then what you thought was an Up-thrust bar, was not. It closed too far down the bar behind it.
In Tom Williams' words "that is something else" is what I would imagine him saying.
There would have to have been supply present, there was a test before & after that bar. As you well know, far be it for me to point it out, but for the newbies, a test is usually a signal for a bullish move.
Wyckoff, will give you the answer to that bar.
Good to see you posts again Pete... keep it rolling..
  • #26,345
  • Feb 7, 2015 8:49am Feb 7, 2015 8:49am
Yip I agree.

The "UT" bar, I dont really care for labeling. Some will call that a hidden UT, but whatever. For me its all about all that effort to go down and no result.

TEB, to me. 100 Years ago, big boys were trying to corner markets, accumulate, mislead people, needed sheep to panic to be able to unload shares.
Today its just done at a bigger scale, with Smart money working together. Even 100 years ago people would join up to accumulate stock in a company.
So in that fact, wyckoff still applies today. You see it in the chart.
Eveerything does happen at a greater speed now due to tech advances. But if Wyckoff had 6 months with forex, he would kill it!!

Frank, wyckoff has probly helped me the most by how I read the background now.
  • #26,346
  • Feb 7, 2015 9:25am Feb 7, 2015 9:25am
Quoting pete148
Yip I agree. The "UT" bar, I dont really care for labeling. Some will call that a hidden UT, but whatever. For me its all about all that effort to go down and no result. TEB, to me. 100 Years ago, big boys were trying to corner markets, accumulate, mislead people, needed sheep to panic to be able to unload shares. Today its just done at a bigger scale, with Smart money working together. Even 100 years ago people would join up to accumulate stock in a company. So in that fact, wyckoff still applies today. You see it in the chart. Eveerything does...

Totally agree. wyckoff pattern are seen all days in most of charts every day... i ill upload some later.

Kill it
Trading 24/h
  • #26,347
  • Feb 7, 2015 10:40am Feb 7, 2015 10:40am
Quoting FrankSA
{quote} Zee, Tom Williams keeps on banging the drum of look to the background. In the past I would also have taken that trade, but we have to have a full narrative. What happens is that the market has not trapped all the bulls & is also testing for supply. Look at your near side zone, seems like they have marked the market up. Now, look to the far left of your chart. I see a massive UHV SO bar, then a very strong "effort to fall". There must have been too much supply in that SO bar, so it was a preliminary stopping volume, the market saw supply...
Thanks for the detailed reply Frank, much appreciated... And Olambeth! (I'm now studying Wyckoff's phases more closely upon recommendation)

"SO"... Sign of.... Supply... Selling... Off?

So even though we've seen key levels of supply broken at lower levels, the previous cluster areas above this can still represent a significant amount of supply re-emerging?
"Never Take a Trade You Don't Understand!" - Pres78
  • #26,348
  • Feb 7, 2015 11:19am Feb 7, 2015 11:19am
Wyckoff pattern ...

I was not saying they are wrong
What I am saying is the times are different.
The most important point of Wyckoff patterns are SM manipulation of the market - this is true & I would say its worse now -

But a 100 years ago in the market A/D was the main point of Wyckoff pattern
NOW I would say trend is way more important!
Understanding trend is the key -- what I am saying its not about right or wrong its priority.
About trend - This is esp true in 4X less so in stocks

cheers

TEB
  • #26,349
  • Feb 7, 2015 3:20pm Feb 7, 2015 3:20pm
Quoting 8051777
Wyckoff....2 words come to mind that a 100yr ago Wyckoff would have no concept of in our era of speed and trend worth thinking about

Several hundreds years ago and today with or without HFT trading is based on supply and demand. Therefore word "speed" has no effect on fundamental principle of trading: supply and demand.

Word "trend" is not worth to mention in this contest.
There is a winner and a loser, nothing in between.
  • #26,350
  • Feb 7, 2015 3:43pm Feb 7, 2015 3:43pm
Quoting buytosell
{quote} Several hundreds years ago and today with or without HFT trading is based on supply and demand. Therefore word "speed" has no effect on fundamental principle of trading: supply and demand. Word "trend" is not worth to mention in this contest.



lol really
Well if you trade 4x or money futures you will see SDZones not holding in a strong trend - time and time again.
Its often called "stop hunting" - and sometimes it is, but more often then not its that "Word "trend" that is not worth to mention"
as price blows through the zone then reverses back though it again- why does this happen
------ because of momentum - which is just trend and speed.
in VSA TG they try to solve this with their 5 SMA to see a" change in attitude". i.e. cover there butts against trend
This one add on was not needed 100 yrs ago but it is now.

(by the way this is seen in all markets but much stronger in 4x)

cheers

teb
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  • #26,351
  • Feb 7, 2015 4:22pm Feb 7, 2015 4:22pm
Can somebody explain to me the benefits of "BetterVolume"?
  • #26,352
  • Edited 1:19am Feb 8, 2015 12:51am | Edited 1:19am
Quoting ;8053268
...lol really Well if you trade 4x or money futures you will see SDZones not holding in a strong trend -.....


There is no room for "lol". I did not mean to go in debate but..."Stop hunting" also has nothing to do with "speed" and is done as part of business: Well, trader place let say willingly stop loss as buy order ( high enough to protect trade in progress) aware that might be loss. Sellers are always looking to sell high and if they have buyer (in this example trader who put willingly high enough buy order) deal is done....therefore nothing to do with "speed". ..business as usual.

Trend always exist and existed....regardless has no effect on SD fundamental principles then and now.
Many traders are thankful to Wykoff for his work as trader and educator then and now.

Your post http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...77#post8051777 is meaningless and if you did not mention words "speed" and "trend" the way you did I really wouldn't spend split second to comment it.
There is a winner and a loser, nothing in between.
  • #26,353
  • Feb 8, 2015 3:03am Feb 8, 2015 3:03am
The road is smooth. Why do you throw rocks in front of you?

Whilst many traders get into VSA to be able to pick tops and bottoms, most would benefit from VSA if they learned to surrender to the market. How does one surrender to the market? Define the Trend and go with it. Trade as if the trend will never end. Tom Williams says, "the trend will last longer than you think".

Take a look at the chart below.

Let's Keep It Simple Stupid!

1. We define trend or Chart Mode by the indicator on top of the chart. If Chart mode is red, we only look to go short.
2. We also define trend by the relation of price to the Balance Point Line. When price is below the Balance Point Line, the trend is down.
3. Ultra High Volume is our start point. We see Supply coming in.
4. We see a confirmed No Demand. No Demand is confirmed when the next bar is down. In this case, the confirmation bar is a Gotcha bar. At this point we would not get short. Chart mode is Up (green).
5. Once Chart Mode turns red (signifying a down trend), we look for decreasing volume as price moves up. More specifically, we look for an up bar on volume less than the previous two intervals. Also known as No Demand.

We view the market as a raging river. We do not try to swim upstream against the current like adult salmon. We go with the river allowing it to take us where it wants to go. Like the eggs of adult salmon. When adult salmon reach their destination, there is death. When the eggs reach their destination, there is new life.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #26,354
  • Feb 8, 2015 3:31am Feb 8, 2015 3:31am
Quoting ZeeDeveel
{quote} "SO"... Sign of.... Supply... Selling... Off?
SO = Shake out. When the composite operator attempts to shake out weak hands by selling on large scale after which he re buys at a better level. Often occurs in accumulation.
  • #26,355
  • Feb 8, 2015 3:35am Feb 8, 2015 3:35am
Quoting joetrader0
Can somebody explain to me the benefits of "BetterVolume"?
Better volume is just a simple volume histogram that colours the bars that are anomalies to previous or bars following it. Such as ultra high volume, no demand/supply etc. I don't really pay much attention to it anymore as it can lead to bias in your Wyckoff/VSA analysis, I really should just get a normal histogram but I'm just too lazy to.
  • #26,356
  • Edited 12:47pm Feb 8, 2015 6:23am | Edited 12:47pm
Quoting buytosell
{quote} There is no room for "lol". I did not mean to go in debate but..."Stop hunting" also has nothing to do with "speed" and is done as part of business: Well, trader place let say willingly stop loss as buy order ( high enough to protect trade in progress) aware that might be loss. Sellers are always looking to sell high and if they have buyer (in this example trader who put willingly high enough buy order) deal is done....therefore nothing to do with "speed". ..business as usual. Trend always exist and existed....regardless has no effect on...


lol

ok I am not sure you even read my post

1st I said SDZ not holding happens sometimes because of Stop hunting - but that has nothing to do with trend.
2nd but stop hunting is part of the business that is if you want to make money
3rd I said " more often" again I said " more often" so that would make it different then stop hunting the reason SDZ are not honoured is because of Trend.
4th and where was my main thought - (& This is the reason SDZ trading esp in 4X is a death system unless you are trading a high RRR. )
5th yes trend was a part of trading 100yrs ago for sure
6th but again because everything was done on paper it would take weeks or moths for SM to accumulate Stock- where they do it in days or hours now.
7th Also it was very hard to do this ie. keep word hidden to what was going on. So wyckoff patterns were more about this side of what was going on finding then
8th Getting the supply - In Forex this is never an issue of getting supply (getting it at a good price can still be an issue of coarse)
9th Again the point is the speed & the length of trends are such that wyckoff could never have known or prepared for it and that was my point
and the reason I see VSA TG better then pure wyckoff because TG has taken steps to deal with this.
9th wyckoff pattern AGAIN - it is great stuff its the priority of points I see changing over the last 100 years not the information!!
10th again I see trend as WAY WAY WAY WAY more important then wyckoff could ever have foreseen - But wyckoff stuff is pure gold!!


By the way -- back in Wyckoff 's day for stocks and commodities
- buying was slow and the selling (panic) was of coarse faster
- hence the wording "long for buying" "short for selling"


cheers
  • #26,357
  • Feb 8, 2015 6:25am Feb 8, 2015 6:25am
Quoting HiddenGap
The road is smooth. Why do you throw rocks in front of you? Whilst many traders get into VSA to be able to pick tops and bottoms, most would benefit from VSA if they learned to surrender to the market. How does one surrender to the market? Define the Trend and go with it. Trade as if the trend will never end. Tom Williams says, "the trend will last longer than you think". Take a look at the chart below. Let's Keep It Simple Stupid! 1. We define trend or Chart Mode by the indicator on top of the chart. If Chart mode is red, we only look to go short....

yep - I agree thx for your clarification it is helpful
  • #26,358
  • Feb 8, 2015 11:38am Feb 8, 2015 11:38am
Quoting buytosell
{quote} Several hundreds years ago and today with or without HFT trading is based on supply and demand. Therefore word "speed" has no effect on fundamental principle of trading: supply and demand. Word "trend" is not worth to mention in this contest.

Ofcourse its worth because i see it like kind of markup... big markup in wyckoff principles.
Trading 24/h
  • #26,359
  • Feb 8, 2015 9:38pm Feb 8, 2015 9:38pm
On the A/J we've had a SC on the weekly after a strong DT move since November.

H1 and H4 is showing a back up to the creek after the jump across the creek on low supply for now. I'm not super keen on taking trades during Asian hours however the set up looked too delicious.

The signal also corresponds with an overbought position on the daily downtrend lines where price has created support from the former resistance on these TLs.
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  • #26,360
  • Feb 8, 2015 11:06pm Feb 8, 2015 11:06pm
Quoting HiddenGap
The road is smooth. Why do you throw rocks in front of you? Whilst many traders get into VSA to be able to pick tops and bottoms, most would benefit from VSA if they learned to surrender to the market. How does one surrender to the market? Define the Trend and go with it. Trade as if the trend will never end. Tom Williams says, "the trend will last longer than you think". Take a look at the chart below. Let's Keep It Simple Stupid! 1. We define trend or Chart Mode by the indicator on top of the chart. If Chart mode is red, we only look to go short....
Well said.. Excellent advise. Trading with the trend provides a definite edge.
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