Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 265 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #5,281
  • Feb 6, 2015 2:05am Feb 6, 2015 2:05am
Hello fellow traders,

I am looking for an indicator to display 3, 6 and 12 months charts on Metatrader 4 or 5.

Those big picture timeframes are so important, but I can't find one indicator that will do that. I was told it's just impossible to generate timeframes higher than the Monthly chart on Metatrader, any lower timeframes combination is possible, I saw one indicator doing it but I want 3, 6 and 12 months charts.

I was also looking for a trading software that allows me to do just that, one that has demo, stocks, equities, forex and indexes.

Anybody knows if TradeStation has the capability of displaying 3, 6 and 12 months charts?

So far I found this site www.tradingview.com, it's an awesome online software, it does all I need for analysis of those bigger timeframes, but it would be great to have it on Metatrader or even on TradeStation.

If anybody has any recommendation on tips about it, I'd be very grateful to you.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,282
  • Feb 6, 2015 2:09am Feb 6, 2015 2:09am
Quoting Ivan-M
Dear Alfonso, was it set and forget trade (AUDJPY Daily)? Monthly up {image} Weekly up {image} Daily down. Daily demand was fresh and original, nested in Weekly fresh demand (but not original). {image}
Hello Ivan i hope u wont mind me commenting on ur post just trying to learn.

AUDJPY monthly chart looks similar to AUDCAD monthly chart. u posted AUDCAD few days ago. I think its consolidation mood there.

on Weekly i think its down. Price removed 1 CP nd 1 DBR both are valid as they remove opposing level. so we have 2 level of demand level removed but cant draw descending trendline.

Daily also down and reacting to fresh & original level of demand nested at proximal line of weekly demand. i guess it was good level to go counter trend.

My weekly chart view slightly different then urs. what do u think ?

http://s24.postimg.org/br7kv42cl/2014.jpg
  • #5,283
  • Feb 6, 2015 2:10am Feb 6, 2015 2:10am
This is the VERY first time I look at a 3 and 6 months charts, I'm looking for a Metatrader indicator that would allow me to display 3 and 12 months chart, see previous post

I've been missing this bigger picture timeframes and it now that at least found an online platform that allows me to see them, other pieces of the puzzle are finally seen and it all makes even more sense.

I wanted to share a bigger picture long term IF THEN scenarios on EUR/USD 3 and 6 months charts. Don't try to trade against these zones unless you are doing intraday or scalping

  1. EUR/USD is in a clear 6 months downtrend, brand new 6 months SZ created. Price reacting to the pip to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement measured from the lowest low to the highest high in history.
  2. Clear 3 months trend with brand new 3 months SZ nested at previous 6 months SZ. See how 3 months WoW short played out at the top. Price fell short of retesting top SZ and created a new SZ at the 3/6 months descending TL. I didn't have access to these charts, now it all makes sense, how simple!!! As per the rules to the pip

LONG TERM IF THEN SCENARIO

  1. Shorts: If price retests that 3/6 months SZ there could be a nice long term short. There is also a 3 months DZ at 1.000 parity level where price is most likely to react strongly
  2. Longs: There is a Monthly SZ right in the middle of last 2 3 moths candles

Have a great weekend!
Cheers,
Alfonso

6 MONTHS CHART

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 112 KB


3 MONTHS CHART

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 154 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,284
  • Feb 6, 2015 2:31am Feb 6, 2015 2:31am
hello alfonso
i have attached a overlay chart indicator. It can show EURUSD chart on GBPUSD chart and it can mirror the chart too.
i think if anyone can change the code then it can show us 2,3,4,5,6 month chart. If we select 3 month then it will grab the open price of January and close price of march candle, and high low would be the range high low ( highest of selected month, lowest of selected month). I dont think it will be very tough to do.

i dont know mql so i cant do it.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 # MTF_OverLayChart(yyr)-edit.mq4   9 KB | 956 downloads
  • #5,285
  • Feb 6, 2015 4:59am Feb 6, 2015 4:59am
Similar type of indicators.
need modification to marge monthly candle and show it
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 # candles_m-Candles_m_TRO_Modified.mq4   7 KB | 950 downloads
File Type: mq4 # LargeTimeFrame overlay.mq4   4 KB | 1,011 downloads
  • #5,286
  • Edited 5:51am Feb 6, 2015 5:24am | Edited 5:51am
Quoting rickyfx
{quote} Hello Ivan i hope u wont mind me commenting on ur post just trying to learn. AUDJPY monthly chart looks similar to AUDCAD monthly chart. u posted AUDCAD few days ago. I think its consolidation mood there. on Weekly i think its down. Price removed 1 CP nd 1 DBR both are valid as they remove opposing level. so we have 2 level of demand level removed but cant draw descending trendline. Daily also down and reacting to fresh & original level of demand nested at proximal line of weekly demand. i guess it was good level to go counter trend....
1. I must agree with you that weekly is down. It was my mistake. Two demand zones have been removed, I pointed them, but they are different to yours .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPYWeekly-3.png Size: 44 KB


2. Is daily USDJPY in consolidation now and the nearest valid levels are correct?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYDaily.png Size: 71 KB
  • #5,287
  • Feb 6, 2015 6:48am Feb 6, 2015 6:48am
Quoting Ivan-M
{quote} 1. I must agree with you that weekly is down. It was my mistake. Two demand zones have been removed, I pointed them, but they are different to yours . {image} 2. Is daily USDJPY in consolidation now and the nearest valid levels are correct? {image}
you ignored the CP (50% candle) on the top, isnt it a valid demand on AUDJPY ?

USDJPY is in a consolidation mood and levels are correct i think.
  • #5,288
  • Feb 6, 2015 7:39am Feb 6, 2015 7:39am
Quoting rickyfx
{quote} you ignored the CP (50% candle) on the top, isnt it a valid demand on AUDJPY ? USDJPY is in a consolidation mood and levels are correct i think.
No trend=no CP's

Quoting panoramia
Hello fellow traders, I am looking for an indicator to display 3, 6 and 12 months charts on Metatrader 4 or 5. Those big picture timeframes are so important, but I can't find one indicator that will do that. I was told it's just impossible to generate timeframes higher than the Monthly chart on Metatrader, any lower timeframes combination is possible, I saw one indicator doing it but I want 3, 6 and 12 months charts. I was also looking for a trading software that allows me to do just that, one that has demo, stocks, equities, forex and indexes....
It's easy to display any custom TF chart in MT4 by using "period converter" script included in MT. Apply this script to current TF and set Period Multiplier Factor to what you need. Then load created offline chart. BUT the thing is it doesn't display charts more then 1 month I don't no why. Probably MT5 can do it?
  • #5,289
  • Edited 11:22am Feb 6, 2015 9:55am | Edited 11:22am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Your analysis makes sense Ricky, but look at the Weekly chart and what happened on the Daily. Price is bouncing off fresh and original weekly demand. There was a daily fakeout pin candle that couldn't close underneath last month lows (you are not using the support/resistance indicator so you can't see the red beads, see my posts, they are always there). That pin candle is informatin there might be lots of buyers there, WK fresh and original demand, I'm doing nothing on this one right now because of that. Cheers, Alfonso
Hi Alfonso, As a beginner learner of SD zone, I am learning and trading on small account at the same time. I have followed your thread to open AUDUSD, and not knowing when/why you closed it. Is it possible for you to update your portfolio here, anytime if any change made?

Thanks.
Simple is powerful all the time.
  • #5,290
  • Feb 7, 2015 4:03am Feb 7, 2015 4:03am
Quoting RiverTrader
{quote} Hi Alfonso, As a beginner learner of SD zone, I am learning and trading on small account at the same time. I have followed your thread to open AUDUSD, and not knowing when/why you closed it. Is it possible for you to update your portfolio here, anytime if any change made? Thanks.
I just can't update everything I do, not even in the community, too much work. But why did I close it? Long ping candle at the last month lows, a candle that whispers a fakeout
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,291
  • Feb 7, 2015 12:40pm Feb 7, 2015 12:40pm
I think I did wrong analysis for XAUUSD at the beginning of the week ,Is the red arrow on D1 was a valid short?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-02-07_19-38-47.png Size: 38 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-02-07_19-59-12.png Size: 54 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-02-07_20-36-57.png Size: 48 KB
  • #5,292
  • Edited 2:56pm Feb 7, 2015 2:18pm | Edited 2:56pm
Hi Alfonso! I'm learning and learning, trying to make top-down analysis and find trades. Was it a trade on Daily (pointed as blue circle) due to realignment/sequence rules?

Monthly was down bouncing from not fresh demand.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDNZDMonthly.png Size: 67 KB


Weekly was down (no trendline but 2 DZ removed)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDNZDWeekly.png Size: 68 KB


Daily was up
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDNZDDaily.png Size: 45 KB


On the one hand, monthly demand was in control, price could not make a lower low than all-time low and daily level I pointed was at 50% of monthly curve. On the other hand, monthly and weekly trends were down, monthly demand was tested many times, weekly and nested daily level were formed good.
  • #5,293
  • Feb 8, 2015 3:37am Feb 8, 2015 3:37am
And another question about EURJPY Monthly. Is it up or down?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYMonthly.png Size: 39 KB

On the one hand we can draw ascending trendline which is still valid. On the other hand 2 DZ have been removed.
I would say that trend is down because demand is violated and supply is respected.
  • #5,294
  • Feb 8, 2015 4:59am Feb 8, 2015 4:59am
Hi Ivan, thanks for the AUD/NZD analysis. i just want to point out somethings the way i understand the re-alignment rules.

From your chart, the daily has already re-aligned with the weekly and monthly downtrend. its all happened at the daily supply zone you circled, so any trade your are taking from that supply zone will be on confirmation because its no longer fresh.we need to see willing sellers from that supply zone. Monthly is in control and we are too low in the monthly and weekly curve. thanks for the analysis bro, you are doing a great job
  • #5,295
  • Feb 8, 2015 5:43am Feb 8, 2015 5:43am
Quoting sympathy
Hi Ivan, thanks for the AUD/NZD analysis. i just want to point out somethings the way i understand the re-alignment rules. From your chart, the daily has already re-aligned with the weekly and monthly downtrend. its all happened at the daily supply zone you circled, so any trade your are taking from that supply zone will be on confirmation because its no longer fresh.we need to see willing sellers from that supply zone. Monthly is in control and we are too low in the monthly and weekly curve. thanks for the analysis bro, you are doing a great job...
Thank you very much for your post and your warm words! Frankly speaking I have a mess now in my head about confirmation and s&f trades. I decided to move step by step and start from the very beginning. Now I'm going to practice in identifying trends and SD zones correctly. And after that I'm going to learn other rules by joining Alfonso's community at set-and-forget.com
  • #5,296
  • Feb 8, 2015 9:39am Feb 8, 2015 9:39am
Quoting Ivan-M
Hi Alfonso! I'm learning and learning, trying to make top-down analysis and find trades. Was it a trade on Daily (pointed as blue circle) due to realignment/sequence rules? Monthly was down bouncing from not fresh demand. {image} Weekly was down (no trendline but 2 DZ removed) {image} Daily was up {image} On the one hand, monthly demand was in control, price could not make a lower low than all-time low and daily level I pointed was at 50% of monthly curve. On the other hand, monthly and weekly trends were down, monthly demand was tested many times,...
Hello Ivan, I think that was valid trade on Daily as per realignment theory. Alfonso also took that trade u can check some previous post.


Quoting judgemegod
I think I did wrong analysis for XAUUSD at the beginning of the week ,Is the red arrow on D1 was a valid short? {image} {image} {image}

As per the rules we need 1 candle consolidate away from the level and stay above/below the level, here next candle touches the level so i guess it show us the balance not imbalance and so i guess this trade wasn't valid.
  • #5,297
  • Edited 1:24pm Feb 8, 2015 11:26am | Edited 1:24pm
Quoting sympathy
Hi Ivan, thanks for the AUD/NZD analysis. i just want to point out somethings the way i understand the re-alignment rules. From your chart, the daily has already re-aligned with the weekly and monthly downtrend. its all happened at the daily supply zone you circled, so any trade your are taking from that supply zone will be on confirmation because its no longer fresh.we need to see willing sellers from that supply zone. Monthly is in control and we are too low in the monthly and weekly curve. thanks for the analysis bro, you are doing a great job...
Great opportunity to learn on Ivan's post. I thought that Daily is a downtrend as well. Based on the 2:1 imbalance, it is a short trade to go on Daily chart.
Not at the blue circle, but the next 2-3 candles.
Mr. sympathy's comment is based on "because its no longer fresh" supply zone, so good to short at the blue circle.

Have I missed any Alfonso's video or rules here?
Simple is powerful all the time.
  • #5,298
  • Feb 8, 2015 12:09pm Feb 8, 2015 12:09pm
Quoting Ivan-M
And another question about EURJPY Monthly. Is it up or down? {image} On the one hand we can draw ascending trendline which is still valid. On the other hand 2 DZ have been removed. I would say that trend is down because demand is violated and supply is respected.
hello Ivan, the DBR demand level ur talking about is it valid ? dose it remove any opposing area or broke any valid trendline ?
CP demand level was valid as it remove opposing area. Ascending trendline still not broken solidly but price is outside of the Trendline. I think we can come to a conclusion after monthly candle close or it continue dropping and took out another level of demand.
About the current situation i dont know for sure its tricky but i think we can consider this as consolidation. (may be bullish consolidation)
w8ing for alfonso's comment on this.
  • #5,299
  • Edited 6:33pm Feb 8, 2015 5:22pm | Edited 6:33pm
Quoting panoramia
Hello fellow traders, I am looking for an indicator to display 3, 6 and 12 months charts on Metatrader 4 or 5. Those big picture timeframes are so important, but I can't find one indicator that will do that. I was told it's just impossible to generate timeframes higher than the Monthly chart on Metatrader, any lower timeframes combination is possible, I saw one indicator doing it but I want 3, 6 and 12 months charts. I was also looking for a trading software that allows me to do just that, one that has demo, stocks, equities, forex and indexes....
attached

Note: Time Shift =2
AggrBackward = true
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 CandleAggregator.mq4   5 KB | 990 downloads
File Type: tpl 6months.tpl   1 KB | 825 downloads
  • #5,300
  • Feb 8, 2015 6:32pm Feb 8, 2015 6:32pm
Quoting rickyfx
{quote} hello Ivan, the DBR demand level ur talking about is it valid ? dose it remove any opposing area or broke any valid trendline ? CP demand level was valid as it remove opposing area. Ascending trendline still not broken solidly but price is outside of the Trendline. I think we can come to a conclusion after monthly candle close or it continue dropping and took out another level of demand. About the current situation i dont know for sure its tricky but i think we can consider this as consolidation. (may be bullish consolidation) w8ing for...
Ricky you are right about the EJ monthly chart. If you look closely, you will see that the impulses are towards the upside so generally it is consolidating to the upside. Monthly demand zone is in control( continuation pattern) withing a flip zone, buying is the way.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EJ_MONTHLY.png Size: 28 KB
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