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  • #7,101
  • Feb 5, 2015 3:44pm Feb 5, 2015 3:44pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} USO $25 would take WTI (/CL) around $65/bbl
tried to fill Apr/May USO $24/$25 calls for $0.00, no dice
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,102
  • Feb 5, 2015 10:05pm Feb 5, 2015 10:05pm
another episode of Diagonal Drama....this Feb/Feb4 UNG $13.5/$13 put spread has a b/e at expiry of $13.15...& UNG lt @ $13.33, $0.04 credit net to get in, $0.55 loss currently, 2 weeks to go. MaxP is at $13.74, - $0.134....idk, there has to be a bottom for UNG somewhere..../NG at low today ($2.61) likely only going lower with epic warm Winter persisting in N. America......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,103
  • Feb 5, 2015 10:17pm Feb 5, 2015 10:17pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} closed Feb1/Feb2 SPY $208/$209 call diagonal for net $0.21 gain, this was a "never let a winner turn into a loser" close & a bet SPY may sell off or move sideways in the remaining trade days. If SPY gains another $3 by Friday and I confirm that I traded out at $325 instead of $725, I promise I will not bitch and moan.
finished over $700 today, will be right on the maxP tomorrow of SPY does not move ... $810.

No regrets...I had a clear choice on this trade, at the time SPY looked poised to fall and I took profit --- then SPY did fall, as expected...and of course came ripping back. As I have said before, these are easy enough to set up but not so easy to execute to perfection.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,104
  • Feb 5, 2015 10:29pm Feb 5, 2015 10:29pm
TLT put diag for Feb expiry looking OK - TLT down $1.48 today, but maybe it will cool jets for a spell? Downside b/e @ expiry $128.00, maxP @ $130.25...maxP $705.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-02-05_tlt.png Size: 57 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,105
  • Edited 11:45pm Feb 5, 2015 11:31pm | Edited 11:45pm
( I love Cheap Calendars) .... My old friend EWZ. Ranging $6-$7 since December. Bad news every day, the next day's news worse than today's, etc, etc. Fed tightening sinks em's. But Brazil could pop a rally if their scandals finally come to an end, see some light at end of tunnel, etc, etc. Put calendars are higher than call calendars...and you can go way out Jun/July and get any 1-month call calendar you want for about $0.08-$0.10...the atm call ($35) Jun/Jul debits $0.07 and has a downside b/e of $30.65...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,106
  • Feb 6, 2015 12:02am Feb 6, 2015 12:02am
EWZ Jun/Jul double calendar - all calls, $35 and $40, debits $0.16. A $20 lot trade risks $400 to b/e between $31.30 and $43.80, makes >$500 between $32.85 and $42.20, makes >$1000 between $33.70 and $41.30. MaxP's at $35.10 and $39.90 -- maxP @ $1,710...no margin tied up...

Will look at stretching these out a little wider. I like long-dated trades that are almost guaranteed to make sick returns that I can forget about for months until expiration week, when share price magically falls on the maxP sweet spots and all the traders in the world marvel at my acumen and envy my skills.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,107
  • Feb 6, 2015 12:07am Feb 6, 2015 12:07am
Quoting The Fool
EWZ Jun/Jul double calendar - Will look at stretching these out a little wider.
$34/$41 debits $0.14, as low as I see....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,108
  • Edited 1:21am Feb 6, 2015 1:04am | Edited 1:21am
NFP day predictions: ADP foretells a miss for NFP - a sub-200k print, I'll say 194,000. Fiber & US indices sell off, UST's rally.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,109
  • Feb 6, 2015 3:01am Feb 6, 2015 3:01am
Quoting The Fool
NFP day predictions: ADP foretells a miss for NFP - a sub-200k print, I'll say 194,000. Fiber & US indices sell off, UST's rally.
whatever it will be its gonna be fairly big based on the extremely tight range we have had on the USD/YEN for well over 20 days, statistically if you put a Bollinger band over that we have a BB squeeze meaning a volatile break is imminent and price has been inside the bands closer to 30 days
  • #7,110
  • Feb 6, 2015 6:37am Feb 6, 2015 6:37am
Another two earnings outlier moves... Pandora and LNKD... Thinking of putting some Reverse Iron Condors on next tech/internet stock...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,111
  • Feb 6, 2015 8:48am Feb 6, 2015 8:48am
Quoting StrayDog
This is what I did ... LNKD Short Strangle Feb6 200/270 for $1.56 CR...
Got out of the mofo for just $50 winner... (closed the call for $1.02, and will let the put expire)
Idk, probably should hold the 270 calls, but there are numerous upgrades and price targets above $300...

What about these bunch?
Attached Image


Back to buying? Put spreads worked like a charm here, I imagine....
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,112
  • Feb 6, 2015 9:45am Feb 6, 2015 9:45am
LNKD is on fire... but hey, isn't that just to high? Waiting for $275...

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Casting a bait...
Yeah, I would prefer to short something from upper line of slopping channel, not ascending one, but not everything is ideal in life...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,113
  • Feb 6, 2015 9:54am Feb 6, 2015 9:54am
Quoting The Fool
NFP day predictions: ADP foretells a miss for NFP - a sub-200k print, I'll say 194,000. Fiber & US indices sell off, UST's rally.
wrong about that in several ways. But now, does we gets back to the old "good news is bad news" meme?...Fed must hikes sooner than laters? /ES not exactly exploding, bonds getting hit again. It has been a big selloff week for UST's. Will stronger USD now weigh on the price of crude?

I am trying to fill a $17/$16.5 USO diagonal for Feb expiry @ $0.02 debit...b/e is at $16.40, near the prior low...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,114
  • Feb 6, 2015 10:12am Feb 6, 2015 10:12am
also trying fill SPY $204.5/$204 puts for Feb @ $0.12, a nod to asymmetry
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,115
  • Feb 6, 2015 11:02am Feb 6, 2015 11:02am
yeah, covering both sides, huh...

NQ close to resistance... I think the absolute worst trades that I had in last 2 years was shorting NQ... but yet, here it is... would like to see some bearish dvg... none on 4h, maybe there will be some on lower TF...

4280 on NQ CFDs is resistance, IMO (for /NQ futures, that is probably 5-7 points lower, so ~ 4275)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NQ-channel.PNG Size: 257 KB
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,116
  • Feb 6, 2015 11:25am Feb 6, 2015 11:25am
Interesting article

S&P 500 & VIX Both At Highs: Who Blinks?
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,117
  • Edited 12:31pm Feb 6, 2015 11:50am | Edited 12:31pm
Ah, fresh news...

Fed rate lift-off on track but inflation, wages a worry: Lockhart

Add-on

And another one
Stocks trade lower; S&P downgrade of Greece in focus
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,118
  • Feb 6, 2015 12:38pm Feb 6, 2015 12:38pm
Well, I am obviously NOT a best friend of Lady Luck...

Quoting StrayDog
LNKD is on fire... but hey, isn't that just to high? Waiting for $275... ..
It got to $272.96... (to afraid to pick me up for a ride from $275, huh?)

Quoting StrayDog
... NQ close to resistance... 4280 on NQ CFDs is resistance
It got to 4270... 10 points less...


Note to myself: Maybe you should use more baits, on different levels...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,119
  • Feb 6, 2015 1:14pm Feb 6, 2015 1:14pm
Quoting The Fool
also trying fill SPY $204.5/$204 puts for Feb @ $0.12, a nod to asymmetry
no go as SnP slips, I'm too cheap to spend another 3 cents.

I might fill the USO diagonal as is, or cave and spend another centavo...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,120
  • Edited 2:00pm Feb 6, 2015 1:30pm | Edited 2:00pm
Hey TF... I see some volume on my platform on $0.5 higher, SPY Feb 205/204.5 put spreads... 300 of them.
They traded from $0.15 to $0.18...

Add-on
I got a partial fill on those, just 2 spreads for $0.15 debit


Add-on 2
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SPX-CFDs-02-06.PNG Size: 180 KB

Hope is dangerous in this game.
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